Tuesday Morning News & Notes
New data has both good news and bad on the new India COVID mutation
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In non-COVID news, the E.U. is demanding Belarus immediately release dissident journalist Raman Pratasevich, and his girlfriend Sofia Sapega, with a guarantee of their freedom of movement. The two were taken off of a Ryanair flight flying from Greece to Lithuania over the weekend that was forced to land in Minsk by Belarusian authorities backed by fighter jets. The ploy, possibly involving KGB agents on the flight, was designed to arrest Pratasevich, whose work has been highly critical of the Belarusian regime.
The “hijacking” as it was called by several European Union politicians drew international outrage. The E.U., as of late last night, is proposing to close its airspace and all of its airports to airlines operating out of Belarus. It is also proposing a number of sanctions to come aimed at groups supporting the Belarus regime, anyone involved in the plot to force the plane down, and aviation authorities in Belarus. The E.U. also wants the International Civil Aviation Authority to launch an urgent investigation.
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Some good news and some concerning news in a large data dump on the B.1.617.2 India variant from Public Health England over the weekend.
First the good news. The health agency found existing vaccines are very effective, about 81%, in cases involving the variant. However it looks like there is some efficacy escape because the bad news is efficacy is about 30% lower against the variant with just one vaccination dose.
There is also a difference by vaccine type. In this case, the data was drawn from real-world results using both the Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca vaccines, with AstraZeneca offering slightly reduced efficacy.
📌AZ: 60% for B.1.617.2 vs 66% for B.1.1.7
📌Pfizer: 88% for B.1.617.2 vs 93% for B.1.17
(Via Epidemiologist Meaghan Kall. Twitter @kallmemeg)
So the B.1.617.2 India variant subtype has some ability to evade protection against infection, but that evasion is on the small side. Vaccine protections against severe courses of the virus, hospitalization, and death will also likely be very high.
In response to the knowledge gleaned from the data, health officials in the United Kingdom are stepping up efforts to combat the strain. Vaccinations will be increased in Bedford, Burnley, Hounslow, Kirklees, Leicester, and North Tyneside to protect the most vulnerable. As well, testing, contact tracing, and genome sequencing efforts will all be ramped up to “isolate cases and break transmission chains.”
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The Staten Serum Institut says the India variant is under control, at least so far, in Denmark. Department Head Tyra Grove Krause told DR over the weekend that they have managed to keep the variant in check despite an outbreak on Saturday in a kommune on Copenhagen’s West side. She says everything is being done, including screening travelers on entry and intensifying infection-detection efforts in places like Glostrup, where the variant has been found. Krause also emphasized existing vaccines have proven to be effective against the new variant.
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Over the weekend, the ‘MinSundhed’ app was officially updated, so its coronapas app reflects that people with one vaccination dose have all the freedoms of those with both. Over 600,000 people in Denmark can now use their one-dose vaccination status to go to restaurants, see movies, and attend events, etc. Just a reminder, to ensure people will still get a second dose, there is ticking clock with the one-dose freedoms expiring 42 days after getting a shot.
The other technical change in the app is the extension of the immunity period for people who have survived COVID from five months to eight. This also allows them to avoid frequent testing and use their immunity to get into places requiring a coronapas. It sounds like the news has not sifted down to some venues checking the coronapas though, as we have reports of people with the extended immunity being turned away from different venues.
Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke:
“We know that the vaccines are extremely effective shortly after the first bite. Therefore, I am completely confident in this improvement of the coronapas. And for the individual who has received his first vaccination plug, a test is therefore no longer necessary, it makes life a little easier when, for example, you go to a restaurant or the cinema. It is still absolutely crucial that you also get another plug because it provides extra protection against the coronavirus.”
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Denmark added 2,505 COVID infection and three more deaths over the holiday long weekend. There were 751 infections reported Saturday, 835 on Sunday, and another 919 on Sunday while suffering one fatality each day.
As you can see below the infection curve continues to push upward.
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On Saturday Health Minister Magnus Heunicke said Denmark surpassed the 50-million mark in COVID tests administered and analyzed. He says the country’s massive testing regime is “an absolutely crucial tool for monitoring and keeping the epidemic under control.”
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On the vaccination campaign in Denmark, to date 1,870,409 1st dose vaccinations (32% of the population) have been administered while 1,183,345 people (20.2%) are now fully vaccinated.
Yesterday a total of 28,682 vaccinations were done.
According to Mikael Olai Milhøj, Chief Analyst with Danske Bank, a vaccination record was reached last week. He says there were 351,187 total vaccinations, the highest ever weekly total.
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Danish Statsminister Mette Frederiksen says Denmark will donate three million doses of COVID vaccine to developing countries through the World Health Organization’s COVAX program. Denmark has contracts covering 2.6 million doses of AstraZeneca and 8.2 million doses of Johnson & Johnson. Presumably the doses could come from this pool of vaccines that have been removed from the state vaccination program. The two vaccines are instead being administered in a voluntary scheme through private contractors.
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The Danish Agency for Patient Safety had its test ambassadors out over the long weekend in Aarhus and Aalborg. Styrelsen for Patientsikkerhed says they focused on engaging with young people to answer any pandemic related questions and encourage them to get tested often. In Aarhus alone, they talked to about 5,000 young people.
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For anyone taking trip to Bornholm Region Hovedstaden is reminding people on the island to get tested before 4pm to ensure they get a result the next day. Apparently corona tests on the island are shipped to Copenhagen for analyzing every day on a 4pm flight.
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Sweden has extended pandemic-related travel restrictions until at least July 1. Sweden maintains its recommendation against unnecessary travel to countries outside the E.U, Schengen zone, and the United Kingdom due to an uncertain infection situation “in many places in the world.”
However as of June 1st Sweden will lift travel restrictions for Australia, Israel, New Zealand, Rwanda, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand, deeming them to be safer destinations.
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According to the Swedish Public Health Agency, Sweden passed a vaccination milestone over the weekend as it surpassed 40% of its adult population having a first dose of a COVID vaccine,
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Swedish researchers at Uppsala University are working to train dogs to detect if someone is infected with the coronavirus by smell. According to the European Data News Hub, the university has teamed with two companies, Hundhjälpen Uppland AB and Stock Hundutveckling, on the project. The idea is not new and has already been tried in Finland, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates. Although in Finland, the practice was stopped in March due to issues around legislation allowing their use and other concerns.
According to an article in the journal ‘Nature’ dogs trained to detect COVID could smell an infected person days before they tested positive. The researchers say ideally the dogs would be used to screen people for coronavirus at theaters, major workplaces, and airports. But they also believe the dogs would best be used in poorer countries and in densely populated places with low-test-capacity, refugee camps, for example.
It takes about three months to train a dog to detect COVID. The training itself has to be done carefully, using actual coronavirus samples that demand a high level of sensitivity and security when handled to prevent infection.
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The Norwegian Institute of Public Health says it is hopeful Norway will be able to achieve herd immunity against the coronavirus. The agency says vaccination uptake is very high across the country, albeit with some regional differences.
The latest statistics show that 93% of everyone in Norway who are 65 years of age or older now have at least one vaccination dose. In that group, 48% of women and 42% of men are fully vaccinated.
Director of Infection Control Geir Bukholm:
“These are very gratifying numbers. Such a high level of support for coronary vaccination gives us hope of achieving good herd protection in society.”
On regional differences, Bukholm notes that it is due to a combination of geographically targeting vaccine doses to hot-spot areas at the expense of those with lower infection rates. As well regions like Olso and Viken with, on average, a younger population both account for the variations of vaccination rates.
For health and social care workers, 66% of those who work closely with patients have at least one dose. 62% of primary health care workers have also had one inoculation, with the highest proportion (88%) among midwives and specialist nurses (86%). However, nursing staff are on the low end, with 48% having one dose.
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The Norwegian Institute of Public Health is going to allow municipalities and regions much greater flexibility to vaccinate the general public once the high risk priority groups are done.
Director of Infection Control Geir Bukholm:
“Until now, the elderly, risk groups and health professionals have been offered coronary vaccination. The goals have been to reduce serious illness and death. Going forward, more emphasis will be placed on herd protection, preventing the spread of infection and the reopening of society. This allows for a less strict prioritization.”
For example the municipalities and regions could offer vaccinations across several age cohorts at once or expand vaccination sites to much larger facilities like sports arenas or town halls to increase vaccination numbers.
The health authority is setting up a webinar with local governments this Thursday to bring them up to speed and ask any questions.
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Germany’s Health Minister Jens Spahn said that on Friday and Saturday, for the first time ever, 2nd dose vaccinations outnumbered those getting a first inoculation. He says over 33 million people in Germany (39.7% of the population) have one dose while 11.3 million (13.6%) are now fully vaccinated.
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Malta’s Health minister claims it has become the first European Union country to achieve herd immunity against the coronavirus. Chris Fearne told Reuters that 70% of the island state’s adult population now has at least one vaccination dose. He says 42% of the population is fully vaccinated. Malta has a population of about 500,000 and it has been reporting just a couple corona cases each day over the past week.
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Moderna’s Chief Executive Officer Stephane Bancel told French newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche that it will seek E.U. approval to administer its vaccine to kids as young as 12. Bancel says they will file a formal application with the European Medicines Agency in early June.
The EMA is already set to decide next month whether or not to approve the use of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for those as young as 12. The United States and Canada have both already done so.
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World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says there is a major COVID vaccination inequity in the world and it poses a danger to us all. He says more than 75% of all global vaccinations to date have been administered in just 10 countries.
“There is no diplomatic way to say it: A small group of countries that make and buy the majority of the world's vaccines control the fate of the rest of the world."
Ghebreyesus called it a "scandalous inequity" in vaccine distribution. He is calling for a major global vaccination push to get 10% of every country’s population vaccinated by September. Then follow that up with getting 30% inoculated by the end of 2021.
“If anyone is left behind, all are held back. If the most vulnerable is first to be protected, then we all win.”
He also warned the world is not out of the pandemic woods yet and in fact remains in a very dangerous place.
“As of today, more cases have been reported so far this year than in the whole of 2020. On current trends, the number of deaths will overtake last year's total within the next three weeks. This is very tragic.”
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Ontario has become the latest province to open COVID vaccinations up to everyone from 12 years old and up. Today Quebec will officially join them also expanding vaccinations to those 12 years old and older.
On Sunday Ontario reported 1,691 new infections and 15 more deaths. Saturday it had another 1,794 infections. Due to the long weekend and holiday Monday Ontario did not update its coronavirus stats it will table two days worth of data later today.