Trump’s Ukraine Gambit Sidelines Europe
The Trump administration takes a crowbar to America’s relationship with Europe.
Editor’s Note - Informeret will return to its usual format next week. I felt strongly that the remarkable developments of the last few days and the potential consequences to come deserved a special focus.
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European leaders are attending an emergency meeting on Ukraine in France today. French President Emmanuel Macron called the meeting after a concerning series of developments over the last few days. Not the least of which is that the US special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has said that European countries will not be allowed to participate in the peace talks after President Donald Trump said he would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate a peace deal.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen will be in attendance at today’s meeting.
Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen spoke to Berlingske.
“There is a meeting in Paris tomorrow (Monday), where the Danish Prime Minister will participate and in many ways will represent the Nordic and Baltic countries, which are some of those that provide the most support to Ukraine.”
A number of other European leaders will also be in attendance, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
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Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard was not happy over the Trump administration excluding Europe from a seat at the negotiating table. She says she passed that message directly to American officials.
“If Europe is to be able to assist in maintaining peace, Europe must have a seat at the table when peace is negotiated. I also presented that at the meeting. It is about Europe's future and security. No peace can be negotiated without Ukraine and no negotiation about our security without Europe.”
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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says there will be no peace deal without both Europe and Ukraine at the table.
“We as Europeans will not allow this. We will also not allow anyone to agree that Ukraine will be demilitarized. It wouldn't work without us.”
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The news that Trump and Putin will meet soon to negotiate a peace agreement in Ukraine has set off alarm bells across Europe. European leaders have long been concerned that Trump would try to unilaterally reach a peace deal with Putin without either Ukraine or the EU even being at the table.
Immediately after the news broke, Nordic and Baltic heads of government held their own emergency meeting last week. Afterward the group issued a joint statement via the Norwegian Prime Minister’s Office.
“Our priority now is to strengthen Ukraine. Our countries are some of the biggest contributors per capita of military aid to Ukraine. We will further strengthen our support. We fully commit to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. Ukraine should be given strong security guarantees. Ukraine and Europe must be involved in any negotiations to achieve just and lasting peace. We are investing strongly in our own defence. We are determined to further strengthen our collective security and defence, and to shoulder our responsibility for peace and security in Europe.”
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The news also caused a big reaction in the Finnish Parliament where Prime Minister Petteri Orpo was peppered with questions. Orpo said that Trump’s call with Putin was expected but added that it is "absolutely clear" that peace cannot be built in Europe without European participation.
"The initial discussions have been concerning for Finland, Europe, and Ukraine."
Orpo told parliamentarians that Trump tends to talk a lot as he urged for calm and patience. He said the path to peace in Ukraine would be a long process. That said, Orpo was concerned enough that he immediately called EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. He also decided at the last minute to attend the Munich Security Conference over the weekend due to the recent developments that have “changed the situation significantly."
Finnish Foreign Affairs Minister Elina Valtonen also weighed in.
“Take it from us: Putin has no intention to stop his expansionist pursuit. He will enter talks, enjoy the limelight, and take whatever he possibly can without making any genuine concessions. Russia must be kept at bay and within its own borders with credible economic and military pressure. That is what ’peace through strength’ is all about. Ukraine and Europe deserve to live in peace. There is no panacea. An isolated quick fix leads to more trouble down the line, also for the US. So far Russia has shown no interest in peace.”
Valtonen adds that any lasting peace in Ukraine will require a comprehensive plan “for years to come.” And any peace plan will also require security guarantees for Ukraine. It should also contain “the multi-domain threat” posed by Russia.
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Finnish President Alexander Stubb says that the Trump administration has sent out a questionnaire to EU countries asking what security guarantees they can offer Ukraine.
“This will force the Europeans to think, then it is up to the Europeans to decide if they actually answer the questionnaire or if they answer it with any great detail.”
The request was sent out last week.
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The other shoe dropped at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, where a speech by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance ruffled feathers and caused shockwaves across Europe. Vance criticized the so-called firewall in Germany preventing the right-wing extremist party AfD from participating in political agreements. AfD, labelled by some media as Nazi-lite, is known for its extremist anti-immigrant viewpoints and its cozy relationship with Moscow. Not done there, he also hit American right-wing talking points like taking aim at abortion laws in the UK, attacked Germany for allegedly arresting people for posting misogynistic comments online, blasted Sweden for arresting a man over the burning of the Muslim holy book the Koran, and told EU leaders it was not Russia but rather mass immigration that poses the biggest threat to Europe. He went on to argue that Europe was no longer on a democratic path. He never once mentioned Ukraine or the security situation in Europe during the entire 20-minute speech.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told reporters after the speech that the vice president was clearly off base and that it is Russia, not immigration, that is a clear and present danger.
“Throughout Europe and not least in our part of Europe, it is quite obvious that it is Russia that is the major threat to our countries' democracy and security.”
The comments also did not go over well in Germany, where Elon Musk’s continued support for the extreme right-wing and pro-Russia AfD party is already causing anger.
A furious German Chancellor Olaf Scholz struck back in his own speech, launching a full frontal assault on Vance.
“You just don't do that, especially not between friends and allies. We will decide for ourselves how we want to continue with our democracy.”
Scholz also called out Vance for his visit to a Nazi concentration camp before his speech, saying the “never again” message rings hollow when he also supports the AfD becoming a part of German politics.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius was also less than happy.
“If I understand him correctly, he is comparing the conditions in Europe to what takes place in authoritarian regimes. This is not acceptable.”
However, Russian officials lauded Vance’s speech as an honest and accurate read of the situation, which is telling in its own right.
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Also unimpressed was the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas.
“Listening to Vance's speech was as if they were trying to pick a fight with us.”
Kallas also called out the hypocrisy of the U.S. position that it wants to both exclude Europe from the negotiating table and also demand that the EU enforce any peace agreement unilaterally reached by Trump and Putin.
“It is up to us to decide how we support Ukraine. Any peace deal will not work without us, because you need the Europeans and Ukrainians to implement it.”
In the video below, Kallas says Ukrainians will resist any peace deal reached that does not include both Europe and Ukraine at the table, and the EU will be right by their side helping them resist it.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also addressed attendees at the Munich Security Conference, where he was greeted with a standing ovation as he walked on stage. In his speech, Zelenskyyy spoke about the Trump administration taking a crowbar to America’s relationship with Europe. He warned that “the old days are over when America supported Europe just because it always had.”
Zelenskyy then used the moment to pitch for a stronger, more united Europe that includes Ukraine.
“From the UK to Poland, from Finland to Spain, across Europe, there is a clear understanding: we must only grow stronger. The Armed Forces of Europe are needed. A coordinated and strong diplomacy is needed. Close engagement with America is needed. We must be a reliable defender of our own future in Europe so that on the other side of the Atlantic, the interest in a strong alliance with Europe remains clear.”
Zelenskyy was also critical of Trump’s unilateral approach to negotiating peace with Putin while Ukraine and Europe are left sitting on the sidelines.
“I'm not happy about that. And I have said before that I think it is dangerous to talk to Putin first.”
He says America can no longer be counted on, and it is now up to Europe to rise to the challenge by becoming stronger and more united than ever before.
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Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen says she agrees with a lot of what Zelenskyy had to say but added that a European army “is not exactly on the drawing board at the moment.”
“I can only see one way forward now, and that is as strong a Europe as possible.”
Frederiksen added that it is too soon to write off the United States or assume they won’t come to Europe’s rescue if it is attacked. That said, she also said that “an uncertainty has been created that we have not seen before in our lifetime.”
Frederiksen says that, contrary to what Vice President Vance thinks, Russia is an immediate threat to European security. She says that Putin will not stop at Ukraine and that “Russia is trying to destabilize and challenge European society in several ways.”
“So that's why we need to upgrade [our defenses] significantly and very quickly; that is, simply increasing our combat power, both in Europe and in Denmark, in order to avoid Russia taking advantage of the situation the world is in right now to attack countries other than Ukraine. So we must arm up to avoid war.”
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The head of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, called this year’s gathering “in a certain sense a European nightmare.” He added that in some ways it was also very clarifying: “This America lives on a different planet under Trump.” Heusgen says that Ukraine and Europe must stand together as the Trump administration looks to unilaterally reach an agreement with Putin to end the war.
“We have to show a lot more strength.”
He says Europe doesn’t just want a seat at the negotiating table, but it must also develop its own made-in-Europe security plan for Ukraine.
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On the topic of security guarantees for Ukraine, former Danish Prime Minister and NATO Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen pitched the idea of a European peacekeeping force led by Britain and France once the war is over.
“A number of European countries must join. We must create a coalition of the willing under the leadership of France and Great Britain to ensure security guarantees for Ukraine and deploy troops on Ukrainian soil.”
Rasmussen, whose company Global Rasmussen currently advises Ukraine's president’s office, is imagining a force of between 50,000 and 100,000 soldiers being deployed to Ukraine.
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Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy while attending the Munich conference. Afterward, he took to social media with a not-so-subtle jab at the Trump administration.
“Nothing about Ukraine, without Ukraine. An important meeting in Munich today between two friends and partners. Norway stands with Ukraine, in arms, in aid, and in solidarity. Norway’s support for Ukraine’s fight for freedom is unwavering.”
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The Trump administration’s plan to end the Ukraine war remains, for the most part, a mystery. But, we do know it will likely involve Ukraine, and possibly Russia, having to give up territory, and Ukraine will also be blocked from joining NATO.
Poland’s Foreign Affairs Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told the BBC that the US envoy to Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has told him the details of the U.S. peace plan. Sikorski called it “unorthodox.”
“For me personally and for the circle of European allies, Kellogg has presented the United States' negotiating tactics. I won't reveal them here. They raise some hopes. They are unorthodox, but we wish them luck.”
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The anger and disappointment in Ukraine over the position of the Trump administration is tangible, according to DR’s Russia and Ukraine correspondent Matilde Kimer in Kyiv.
“It ranges from frustration and confusion to disappointment and downright rage that an ally in whom one had so much trust and hope turns out to have a different approach to the negotiations than what one had hoped for.”
Kimer says Ukrainians believe that Russia is absolutely in the wrong as the invading country, and the blame for the almost three-year-long war sits entirely with them.
“The perception here is that you [the invading country] will have to pay an even higher price to get peace. It is therefore important for Ukraine that a possible peace agreement comes with security guarantees, and here the emphasis in the war-torn country is on NATO membership. They believe that it is clearly the best protection, also in the future.”
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At least one expert is calling the events of the last week a seismic shift in the world order. director of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former US ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder, says Europe can no longer count on the United States as a military ally.
“I think that Europe already stands alone. It is a geopolitical shift, the time when the United States maintained a rules-based order died on January 25 when Donald Trump became president.”
Last week, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told NATO defense ministers that the United States will no longer be responsible for Europe’s defense. Daalder says this is concrete proof that the U.S has left Europe to fend for itself.
“The US defense minister told his colleagues in NATO that Europe needs to take care of Europe's defense. So, for the first time since 1941, the United States does not believe that the security of Europe is essential to the security of the United States.”
Daalder says this is a wake up call for European Union leaders who now must ensure that Europe can stand on its own two feet.
“Europe needs to become a strong player, Europe needs political strength, they need economic strength and they should have military strength to take care of their own interests.”
He adds that the first step should be to put away this idea that if they placate Trump by buying more American natural gas or finding other trade incentives it will change anything. Daalder says they must meet respond to Trump with strength.
On the war front, he says that there can be no lasting peace unless Ukraine is part of the negotiating process. It also requires Europe to provide and enforce security guarantees.
Next week, peace negotiations between the US and Russia will begin in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine will not participate in the talks.
Financial Times Ukrainian Correspondent Christopher Miller reported that not only was Ukraine not invited to the peace negotiations; in fact, they had no idea they were even taking place until it was reported in the media.
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It is worth noting that Europe has sent more humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine than the United States. Over the years, the US has made its donations in fits and starts, while European countries have maintained regular and steadily increasing donations of weapons, ammunition, and other aid to Ukraine.
This is shown by a calculation from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
The report shows that Europe has spent €70 billion in financial and humanitarian aid and €62 billion in military aid since the beginning of the war. The United States has spent €50 and €64 billion, respectively, and its donations have been stagnating.
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Lithuania’s former Foreign Affairs Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis left the Munich Security Conference thinking about the consequences of the dramatic geopolitical shift that took place over the weekend.
“Ukraine can no longer rely on US assistance. The US President wants a deal, and he wants it fast. Fast deals cost more for the buyer, but the US is not willing to foot the bill. So, ultimately, Ukraine will have to pay the price.”
He says the Trump administration is aligning itself “with the movements within Europe that are interested in destruction.” Landsbergis says there is a strong possibility that Trump and Putin will reach an agreement to end the war that will be unpalatable for both Ukraine and Europe but will leave Vladimir Putin doing cartwheels.
“President Trump will dump this dead cat deal at Europe's door and say take it or leave it. Then it's up to Europe to decide whether or not to stick up for Ukraine and support rejection of the deal.”
Landsbergis says Europe desperately needs a leader “with Churchill’s resolve, the spirit to say we will never surrender, we will defend all of Europe, from Ukraine to Portugal.”
“People who say that Europe must be at the table should remember that to be invited, you have to matter. If Europe commits to money, troops, and a European path for Ukraine, we will make our own table, and Ukraine, Putin, and Trump can be invited. But time is running out.”
Anything less and he says Putin will be further emboldened and that will result in threats to European security growing immensely.
“Putin will get braver, meaning more war in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and beyond.”
He also warns that Europe shouldn’t take its eye off of China, as it could step into the power vacuum left by the United States, adding a new and disturbing dimension to Europe’s troubles.
“If the US and Europe don't offer security to Ukraine, China might step into the gap, using its leverage on Russia. They could even offer a better deal than Trump's. Ukraine has a lot to offer to China in return for security, rebuilding, ports, and agricultural produce. There will be those in Europe who will support this. This gambit could be called a "Kissinger," splitting the US and Europe as Kissinger split the Soviet Union and China.”
Landsbergis says that Europe can still seize the day, but if it ultimately lacks the political will, then troubling times lie ahead.
“While I accept that the statements made by the US Vice President were the necessary medicine for a lethargic Europe, I just pray the cure doesn’t kill the patient.”
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Taking a step back, the events of the last week have added another body blow to democracy on a global scale. Former British Prime Minister John Major made the point that when the U.S. isolates itself, democracy is put under increased threat. Major says President Donald Trump’s policy of American isolation not only fractures western alliances but it also invariably creates a power vacuum.
“It is extremely strange to preach to Europe about freedom of expression and democracy, while at the same time embracing Putin.”
He says authoritarian countries like Russia and China will be more than happy to fill that vacuum while continuing their full-court press on their desire to burn democracy to the ground.