Trump wins, Denmark feels impact
What went wrong for the Democrats?
*Editor’s Note - Being a political geek, I was up at 2:30 am Danish time to follow the U.S. presidential election. Having covered plenty of political campaigns as a reporter, I was reflecting on what went wrong for the Democrats today and decided to write this*
A disaster for the Democrats.
The day before Election Day I thought there would be one of three possible scenarios in the U.S. presidential race.
1 - Tight race with either Trump or Harris winning narrowly.
2 - Harris wins by some magnitude of a landslide.
3 - Trump in some magnitude of a landslide.
While the evening’s results certainly made it appear to be option one, a close finish, it was option three that ended up being the scenario that played out. Trump and the GOP won in a landslide. Trump dominated, grabbing the popular vote and painting a huge swath of the U.S. red while the GOP grabbed control of the Senate by a margin not seen in decades. The GOP will also likely secure the House as well. It is President Trump 2.0.
So what went wrong for the Democrats?
There is a lot to analyze here, but from a communications point of view, the Democrats were almost completely MIA.
Biden’s age - Remember the weeks of never ending pressure and questions that Joe Biden faced over his age and ability to do that job? It was relentless. So much so that Biden eventually called it quits. Yet we now have a president-elect who will become the oldest president in U.S. history during his upcoming term in office with all the same challenges. Why didn’t Trump face the same scrutiny and questions? This was a failure of the Biden campaign to reframe the narrative and hit back. The U.S. media also share some of the blame for going all in on one candidate and virtually ignoring the other.
What happened to the Harris momentum? Picking up the mantle, Kamala Harris surged in the polls taking the lead after Biden had been trailing badly. She extended the good publicity with her VP pick and then with her debate performance. Add in a massive headline grabbing endorsement from Taylor Swift for good measure. The Trump campaign was on its heels. Then what? Her campaign team missed the boat entirely on a strategy to keep the hits and headlines coming. Harris faded into the background due to a combination of Trump bombast and clever choices by his campaign to get him carefully curated attention, targeted at specific voters like the “working” at McDonalds stunt. Silly? Yes. But effective. Trump got a LOT of media attention out of it.
Where were the big ideas? The Biden campaign knew well in advance the hard questions their candidate would face on the campaign trail about his age, the economy, and immigration. Yet there appeared to be no strategy or communications effort to reframe the narrative and give Americans something to get excited about. That carried over to the Harris campaign. Several weeks ago, I asked an American friend, an ardent Harris supporter, what big idea or policy Harris was running on. She couldn’t come up with an answer, and neither could I. That is a big problem and an indictment of the lack of an effective campaign and communications strategy.
Trump is awful, and a woman’s right to choose were the two biggest things I associate with the Biden/Harris campaigns. Neither was a winner. As a respected colleague said today, “you can’t lecture people to vote for you. It is not enough to mock your opponent as unfit for office. You have to meet voters where they’re at on issues they’re concerned about.”
The Democrats just learned that the hard way.
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The usual flood of congratulations to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump rolled in from all over the world, but the wording from Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen caught my eye.
In a statement, Frederiksen began with the usual platitudes.
"Congratulations to Donald Trump on being elected the next President of the United States. The United States is our most important ally. We must maintain the close cooperation between the U.S. and Denmark and continue to strengthen the transatlantic bond that has endured through generations.”
She then segued to the importance of cooperating on defense to face the threat posed by Russia.
“I look forward to strengthening the defense corporation between the United States and Denmark together with President-elect Trump. In a world in which Russia behaves more aggressively, increasingly supported by Iran and North Korea, there is a need for reinforcing global alliances. This is especially true in Ukraine, where we need to continue our support for their fight for freedom. Furthermore, it would not be possible for Russia to continue the war in Ukraine without the help of China, which is of grave concern. Our common security is at stake.”
The ending of the statement then hinted strongly at what European leaders have been fearing over the prospect of another Trump presidency: Europe having to fend for itself, as Frederiksen deftly threaded the needle.
“A strong partnership must be based on a Europe that must be able to do more on its own and take greater responsibility for our own security. We need to speed up and invest even more in our collective defense. It is necessary for ensuring peace and security in Europe and for being a strong partner for the United States globally."
On the campaign trail, Trump has said, among other things, that he would pull the USA out of NATO and that he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office.
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In the United States, stock markets surged upward in response to the Trump win. However, it was the opposite story in Denmark, where the stock exchange headed in the other direction. Danish wind energy giants Vestas and Ørsted shares tumbled by 12% in the aftermath of the vote, helping to drag down the stock market as a whole.
In his election campaign, Donald Trump pledged to double down on fossil fuels and “drill, drill, and drill” while throwing out all of Biden’s climate change initiatives. As part of his disdain for green energy, Trump has promised to dump offshore wind turbines as an industry, thus the nosedive for Vestas and Ørsted. If Trump follows through, Vestas could be hit particularly hard as 30% of its wind energy activities are based in the States.
Shares in Danish shipping giant Mærsk also dropped, down some 6%. Trump has threatened to introduce a range of punitive tariffs once he takes office, which will have a knock-on impact on global trade and shipping.
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With Trump threatening a swath of tariffs when he takes office, including what he said would be 10% duties on goods from the EU, the elements for a possible trade war are in place. Danish Industry estimates that in the event of a trade war it could cost thousands of lost jobs in Denmark.
The concern was such that Foreign Affairs Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen called a press conference on Wednesday to urge calm.
“What Trump says is one thing, what Trump does is another. It is important that Europe finds a common voice here. We have no interest in a trade war, but neither does the United States.”
Rasmussen noted that in Trump’s first term the USA became Denmark's largest export market. He also believes that Europe and the U.S. can find common ground on dealing with China, which poses trade challenges for both parties.
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Trump’s win could mean that global climate change efforts will take a giant step backwards, as his policies could make the U.S. indifferent to green initiatives. Blue World Technologies in Aalborg works on green energy solutions in the maritime industry, and the election result is causing the company concern.
Co-Founder and CEO, Anders Korsgaard spoke to DR:
“It is especially the uncertainty and shifting messaging about climate policy that challenge companies like ours. This does not mean that everything will change tomorrow, but it could have an impact in the next few years if the Americans' focus on green investments disappears.”
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Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo struck a similar tone to that of his Danish counterpart in responding to the Trump win.
"Since the president and the presidential party are changing, there will certainly be adjustments. I don't believe that there will be any dramatic or major changes from Finland's point of view.”
That said, Orpo added that Europe has to prepare for the future, where it has to stand on its own two feet.
"I have been saying for a long time that Europe must take a bigger role. We cannot count so much on US support.”
On Donald Trump’s wild promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office, Orpo struck a cautionary note, saying peace is ideal but only on Ukraine’s terms.
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Former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, who met with Trump many times in his first time, said that what Trump says and what he does can be two different things. On Trump saying he would pull out of NATO and end the war in Ukraine, Niinistö said people need to take a wait-and-see approach.
"I haven't seen a detailed plan on the matter, if there is one. Rather, that will have to be considered after we see what he is really going to do. As for the NATO relationship, it has become clear that Trump is not an enthusiastic participant in international organizations. In his last term, however, despite the tough talk, the United States' investment in Europe, and specifically in NATO, increased.”