The Evening Report - Sept 9
The EU grapples with the energy crisis. COVID wave easing in Denmark.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇩🇰 🇸🇪 🇫🇮/ 🇪🇺
The Prime Ministers of the three Nordic countries in the European Union have sent a joint letter to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen asking for urgent action to deal with the energy crisis. The Prime Ministers of Denmark, Sweden, and Finland say they are in a crisis due to skyrocketing energy prices and high inflation. A challenge, they say, must be dealt with decisively and with urgency before winter arrives, and the whole situation becomes much worse. They say measures taken so far in each country have not proven sufficient.
The three prime ministers are demanding “a coordinated reduction in EU electricity demand” and “extensive energy efficiency measures” to both strengthen security of supply and “put a brake on price hikes.”
“Secondly, we agree on the need to look at temporary adjustments to minimize the impact of high gas prices on energy consumption, and to enhance the stability of the electricity derivatives market. We should aim to do this in a way that does not unnecessarily limit our access to energy; remove incentives for further investments in renewable energy, or create further pressure on inflation rates.”
Sweden, Denmark, and Finland also want the EU to accelerate the green energy transition to further divorce Europe from all Russian oil and gas.
Tomorrow, EU energy and climate ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss what they can do to rein in energy prices.
🇪🇺⚡️
The European Union has put the idea of a price cap on Russian gas on the table as it looks at ways to tackle the energy crisis, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says the crisis is directly because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“We must cut Russia’s revenues, which Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine. We are prepared for this. At the beginning of the war, Russia’s pipeline gas was 40% of all imported gas. Today it is now only 9% of our gas imports.”
Other options being looked at include a “smart savings strategy” for electricity. It would find ways to bring down peak demand, perhaps by introducing a mandatory target for reducing electricity use during peak hours.
Another is a cap on revenues from electricity companies that are producing energy at low costs.
“Low carbon energy sources are making unexpected revenues. Time for consumers to benefit from their low costs? We will propose to re-channel these unexpected profits to support vulnerable people and companies.”
For oil and gas companies reaping huge profits, the EU is looking at a “solidarity contribution” scheme, with the monies then being diverted to help member states deal with the energy crisis. While also looking for financially shore-up energy utility companies to insulate them against volatile markets.
Von der Leyen also said EU gas reserves were at 82%, slightly ahead of the goal the EU set out of reaching 80% reserves by October.
🇷🇺/ 🇪🇺
The idea of putting a price cap on Russian gas has not gone over so well with Russian President Vladimir Putin who said any price cap “would be an absolutely stupid decision.” Putin then threatened to shut off all energy exports to any country imposing a price cap.
"We will not supply anything at all if it is contrary to our interests, in this case economic [interests]. No gas, no oil, no coal, no fuel oil, nothing."
Putin has also dropped all pretenses over the shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, saying the gas taps will only be turned on when all of the sanctions imposed on Russia by the west are lifted.
🇩🇰
It is time for Denmark to divest itself of all Russian natural gas, according to one energy expert.
With Russia weaponizing its energy exports, Professor of Energy Planning Brian Vad Mathiesen says Denmark can no longer count on Russia as a reliable energy source.
“I believe that we are best served by saying to ourselves that it is now over and then going to work in a structured manner in relation to handling the situation where there is no more energy exports from Russia at all.”
Mathiesen says there will absolutely be consequences to ending all reliance on Russian gas exports, especially for the coming winter. But, he notes, with Russian President Vladimir Putin turning off gas supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, that reality is already here and it is time to bite the bullet.
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The Danish government announced action to tackle the energy crisis on Thursday with a number of measures. The parliament passed emergency legislation on Thursday to lower the tax on electricity. The reduction of four øre per kilowatt hour comes into force on October 1. Then in the new year, the electricity tax will be lowered even further.
Tax Minister Jeppe Bruus told reporters that while the tax reduction on electricity will help it also won’t provide any guarantees of keeping bills from spiraling out of control for some businesses and homeowners.
“I cannot issue any guarantees. I can only say that it is a serious situation. I have to be honest to say that it has an extent where we have no illusions that we can help everyone with everything.”
The Danish government also pledged 100 million Danish kroner (About $17.5 million Cdn) in loan guarantees for energy companies.
Business Minister Simon Kollerup:
“The Danish electricity companies play a very important role in society because they ensure our electricity supply. That is why I am happy that we have now, together with a majority of the parties in the Folketing, agreed to provide a billion-dollar guarantee from the state, which provides peace of mind for the important players on the electricity market.”
Denmark and Europe are facing a historic energy crisis, according to Climate, Energy and Supply Minister Dan Jørgensen, who says that Denmark is not yet in an energy supply crisis despite soaring prices. But, to help ease demand, the government is mandating all public buildings to cap indoor temperatures at 19 degrees. All unnecessary outdoor lighting is also to be turned off.
The Salling department stores in Aarhus and Aalborg are taking the energy saving directives from the government to heart. The stores will forgo exterior Christmas lights this coming holiday season as part of an effort to reduce energy use.
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Coal shipments are returning to the port of Aabenraa a year after the port announced it was divesting itself from shipping coal. The energy crisis has made it necessary to bring back coal as a backstop for the coming winter should the energy crisis become even worse. The new agreement to funnel coal through the port again is good for one year.
🇸🇪
The energy crisis has arrived in southern Sweden. Region Skåne says sharply rising electricity prices are hitting the region and its homeowners hard. The region says it uses a considerable amount of energy, with its hospitals being the biggest energy users. And with electricity costs soaring, the region says it is facing “significantly higher costs for electricity than what was budgeted for in 2022.”
It says while it has been really doubling down on energy efficiency for a number of years, realizing a 22% reduction in energy consumption with the current situation, more needs to be done.
Property Director Magnus Windblixt says the focus is now on creative solutions.
“We are slowly being ushered into the high-cost situation that now prevails. It is not always about complicated measures to save energy. What we save the most on is the optimization and maintenance of installations, so that technical equipment works as it should. Relatively simple measures such as installing need-based ventilation and lighting make a big difference.”
Region Skåne procures about 60% of its electricity with price guaranteed contracts impacting costs. The remaining 40% is purchased at a variable price on the market. But, the region also operated six wind turbines, which produce about 65 GWh per year and cover about 40% of the region’s needs, which help to defray some of the impact of the energy crisis.
🇬🇧 ⚡️
The UK government has tabled an enormous bail-out to freeze gas and electricity prices, promising another £40 billion so energy companies can access more liquidity. Gas and electricity bills for the average homeowner would be capped at £2,500 per year for the next two years. Energy experts are already warning that any fixed price freeze would mean the UK government would simply have to eat all existing costs over the capped price plus any further increases the energy crisis throws their way.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
The first batch of new bivalent COVID vaccines arrived in Denmark on Wednesday. Health Minister Magnus Heunicke says the first shipment contained 720,000 vaccine doses. He says those will be distributed to the Danish regions “in the coming days” for the booster dose vaccination campaign that begins next week. On September 15, elderly seniors 85 years old and older along with vulnerable seniors in care will get first crack at a 2nd booster dose. On October 1, the booster dose campaign will really get going.
You can find the details of the vaccination plan in our earlier report HERE.
The new bivalent vaccines were recently approved for use in Europe. They are a hybrid vaccine targeting both the original coronavirus strain and the BA.1 Omicron variant.
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“We are still in a good place.”
The COVID contact number has crept upward in Denmark, Health Minister Magnus Heunicke says the reinfection rate, or R0, has gone from 0.7 last week to 0.8 this week.
“This indicates that the epidemic is still decreasing.”
Heunicke adds that COVID wastewater surveillance shows coronavirus activity decreasing across all five Danish regions.
The health minister says for a third straight week the COVID incidence rate as measured by PCR testing has also trended downward across all regions.
COVID hospitalizations are also following the same trend-line, with new admissions falling for a third straight week. While the number of infections and coronavirus deaths among vulnerable seniors in care have also declined from week to week.
“Our ongoing monitoring shows that the situation is as we could wish for it to be here at the start of the first autumn month. We have secured the latest, updated vaccines and are ready when another expected infection wave arrives during the fall.”
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The BA.5 COVID wave appears to be in retreat across Denmark. New infections fell by 23% last week compared to the week before, according to the latest weekly pandemic snapshot from the Statens Serum Institute. However, PCR testing also dropped by 7% meaning there is a greater likelihood of infection numbers being underreported. The positivity percentage last week also eased, dropping to 12.7%.
The COVID incidence rate and positivity percentage dropped across all five Danish regions for a third week in a row. Region Midtjylland has the highest incidence rate per 100,000 people with 98, while the lowest is in Region Hovedstaden with 72.
Looking at it by age group and the downward trend persists with COVID incidence rates declining across all age groups. It remains highest among seniors 60 to 69 years old (126 per 100,000 people) this is followed by 70 to 79 years old (120).
The positivity percentage was also down in all age groups, with one exception for those 80 years old and older. The highest positivity percentage (15%) is among those 70 to 79 years old, followed by 60 to 69 year olds (14%).
COVID hospitalizations are also falling as they have been for three weeks now. There were 295 new pandemic admissions last week, compared to 383 the week before. As they have for most of the year seniors 70 to 89 years old continue to make up the largest proportion of new admissions. There were just seven new admissions into intensive care last week.
For a fourth straight week, pandemic deaths are down again. There were 41 fatalities last week. The SSI is reporting that excess mortality rates are up for the 75 to 84 year old age group.
Number are also down across the board for Denmark’s most vulnerable population of seniors in care. Infection numbers have gone from 83 cases two weeks ago to 53 last week. The positivity percentage has also dipped for a fourth straight week dropping from 2.7% to 2.2%. There were just nine hospitalizations among nursing home residents last week, 12 fewer than the week prior. There were ten pandemic deaths last week among seniors in care. Testing rates also continued to decline.
While testing rates have increased significantly among senior care homes and other social sector workers, infection numbers continue to drop as they have for four weeks now. Among hospital staff, the positivity percentage continues to drop as it has for two weeks now.
More evidence of an easing infection wave in the latest COVID wastewater surveillance numbers showing decreasing virus activity nationally and across all five Danish regions. The BA.5 variant was dominant across all wastewater surveillance sites.
Matter of fact, BA.5 remains the dominant variant in Denmark, coming back in 93% of all sequenced positive test results last week. Taking a closer look, the three BA.5 sub-variants all either held steady week to week or increased their case share by a little bit. BA.5.2 (24.37%), BA.5.1 (23.89%), and BA.5.2.1 (16.14%). Two new Omicron sub-variants BF.7 (3.39%) and BF.5) (4.20%) made small gains week to week.
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COVID hospitalizations (280) have dipped (-13) while the number of severely infected people in an ICU (6) inched down (-1) and of those the number on a ventilator (1) is unchanged. Infection admissions to a psychiatric facility (57) also down (-2)
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Denmark has reported 882 COVID infections (underreported), including 219 reinfections, and two more coronavirus deaths in the last day.
With 7,731 PCR tests yesterday that equals a positivity percentage of 11.40%, over 7 days, it is 13.31%.
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Ahead of the vaccine booster dose campaign beginning next week, currently 81.4% of the total population has one vaccine dose, 80% have two, 61.7% have a booster shot, and 0.9% have a 2nd booster dose.
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The Statens Serum Institute’s sentinel monitoring system shows respiratory infection activity is increasing, likely due to back to school, as activity jumped from 33% to 53% week to week. Aside from the coronavirus, both parainfluenza and rhinovirus were the two most common respiratory infections.
🇸🇪
Sweden has added 4,396 infections and another 102 virus deaths in the last week.
Total to-date pandemic deaths in Sverige now exceed 20,000, almost 3 times that of Denmark, and over 6,000 more lives lost than in Denmark, Norway, and Finland combined.
So far, among those 12 years old and older, 87.3% have one dose, 85.3% have two, and of those 18 years old and older, 66.8% have a booster shot.
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Sweden has seen its deadliest week of the summer on the pandemic front. In its latest weekly COVID assessment, the Swedish Public Health Agency says while confirmed infection numbers remain at the same level as the week previous, the number of coronavirus deaths has continued to increase.
The number of fatalities in Sweden has been rising each week since June. In week 33 (weekly deaths are reported on a two week delay), the preliminary death toll is 126 lives lost to the virus. It is termed a preliminary number because Swedish authorities continue to struggle with a backlog of reporting pandemic deaths. The healthcare agency is also pointing out that the death toll “does not take cause of death into account” and therefore could include people who were infected but died for other reasons.
Last week, Sweden saw 3,800 confirmed coronavirus cases while testing increased by about 12% with 24,000 people getting a PCR test last week. Keep in mind case counts are wildly underreported in Sweden as it restricts testing to seniors in care and people being admitted to hospital.
The positivity percentage last week was approximately 16%, a week-to-week decline.
Of the confirmed infections, 292 were seniors in care, an increase of 14%. While COVID cases among seniors receiving home care also rose by 3%.
State Epidemiologist Anders Lindblom:
“To reduce the risk of serious illness and death as a result of covid-19, it is important that everyone follows the recommendations on vaccination. This also applies to people who have previously been ill with covid-19. It is also important that anyone who is sick with symptoms that could be covid-19, stays at home and avoids close contact with others.”
There were 23 new intensive care admissions last week, the highest level of the summer. Over the last four weeks, there have been 83 people with infections severe enough to require intensive care.
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The COVID hospital situation in Sweden’s capital region is largely status quo from day to day. There are 212 infected people receiving hospital care as of Thursday morning, just one more patient than the day before. The number of people in intensive care (2) is unchanged day to day.
During the last week, hospitals in Region Stockholm saw an average of 116 pandemic patients each day.
Across the region, as of Thursday, there were 228 available staffed care beds, three more than there were the day before.
🇳🇴
Norway has added 624 infections and suffered 24 more COVID deaths in the last week. Total to-date pandemic deaths now exceed 4,000.
In the last week there were 74 corona admissions (-38).
So far, 80.5% of Norwegians 12 years old and olde have one dose, 75% have two, and 55.8% have a booster shot.
🇫🇮
Finland has registered 4,599 infections and 78 more corona deaths in the last week.
COVID hospitalizations (412) have dropped (-64).
To date, 79.9% of the total population have one dose, 76.9% have two, 54% have a booster shot, and 14.6% have a 2nd booster dose.
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“This year may become a year of viruses.”
The COVID situation in Finland appears to be on the decline but concerns are linking that after two years of very little activity of the other ‘usual’ viruses, they could come roaring back this winter.
Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District Chief Physician Asko Järvinen spoke to Yle and said on the pandemic front infection numbers, hospitalizations, and intensive care admissions are all on the decline.
However, with society returning to near normal, kids heading back to school, and their parents back to their workplaces, it could provide an ample feeding ground for other viruses to make a return.
“When there's no protection in the background, like immunity from previous years' infections, perhaps there's a little more room for [other] diseases to spread. That's a fear which has been speculated.”
He says topping the concern list is of course, any fall or winter COVID wave but also the seasonal influenza, and other bugs like the RS virus, both of which tend to spike in the fall and winter months.
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A new Finnish study has found that a huge majority of children in Finland have coronavirus antibodies either due to vaccination or having had an infection. According to a study by the Finnish Institute of Health 90% of young people under the age of 19 had coronavirus antibodies as a result of either being vaccinated or having had an infection.
The study also determined that the Omicron variant just absolutely ripped through the country’s population of children with antibodies indicating an infection found in 73% of those aged from one to 17 years old.
Research Manager Merit Melin:
“The study shows that the number of coronavirus infections in children increased significantly during the spring of 2022. In December 2021, only 8% of people under the age of 18 had antibodies indicating a coronavirus infection; in January the proportion had risen to 21%, and in May 73%.”
Between the saturation of the Omicron variant and vaccination for most younger age groups, the study suggests that a lot of children now have hybrid immunity.
“In December 2021, antibodies formed as a result of vaccination were found in 78% of the samples of 12-17-year-olds, which corresponds to the estimate of December vaccination coverage in this age group based on the vaccination register. Based on the vaccination register, 80% of 12-17-year-olds and 25% of 5-11-year-olds had received at least one vaccine dose by May. A very large proportion of children and young people, especially those over the age of 12, have hybrid immunity formed as a result of the combined effect of coronavirus infection and vaccination. Hybrid immunity is stronger and recognizes a wider range of different virus variants than the protection formed as a result of infection or vaccination alone.”
🇩🇪
Germany recorded 42,057 new infections and 117 more corona deaths in its Thursday daily pandemic update.
It added another 897 COVID hospitalizations while ICU numbers (723) dipped (-23). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country, pandemic patients are using 3.3%.
To date, 77.9% of the total population has one dose, 76.3% have two, and 62% have a booster shot.
🇨🇳
China has become the first country in the world to approve a COVID vaccine that can be inhaled. The vaccine is taken using a nebulizer and it is produced by CanSino Biologics and is called Convidecia Air. The company has published its own study of the new vaccine claiming it produces a strong antibody reaction of administered as a booster dose. However, there are no independent studies to back this claim up.
CanSino Biologics also produces another injectable COVID vaccine approved for use in China and 18 other countries. Its efficacy falls well short of that of the two mRNA vaccines produced by Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇵🇱 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 🇪🇪
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland will close their borders to virtually all Russian citizens trying to enter the EU/Schengen area. In a joint statement from the four countries, they say among Russian citizens entering the EU are “persons coming with the aim of undermining the security of our countries.” Even for those Russians who are just tourists “it is also unacceptable that citizens of the aggressor-state are able to freely travel in the EU, while at the same time people in Ukraine are being tortured and murdered.”
As of September 19, the Baltic states and Poland will restrict all Russian citizens including those traveling for tourism, culture, sport and business purposes, and even Russians holding EU visas issued prior to the invasion of Ukraine, from crossing into Europe. Although there will be some exceptions.
The exemptions include dissidents, humanitarian cases, family members, holders of residence permits, for the facilitation of freight and transportation services, diplomatic missions, and Russians transiting to Kaliningrad.
This comes on the heels of the European Union suspending the Visa Facilitation Agreement with Russia making it much harder for Russians to get a visa to enter the European Union.
🇩🇰
The Danish military is looking to patch up some blind spots in its air defenses. A deal has been reached to buy new anti-aircraft radar units from the Dutch government. The five new units are able to detect aircraft, drones, rockets, and other projectiles from up to 400 kilometers away. The units cost about 540 million dkk.
🇳🇴/ 🇺🇦
Norway is donating 160 Hellfire missiles including launching pads, guidance units, and night-vision equipment, to the Ukrainian army.
The donation was announced by Norwegian Minister of Defense Bjørn Arild Gram after he met with his counterparts across 40 countries in Germany on Thursday. The meetings were to facilitate more weapons and other donations to Ukraine.
“This is a weapon that Ukraine has asked for, and it will prove useful in their fight against Russian invasion forces. The missile is easy to operate, and can be used against both land- and sea-targets.”
Ukrainian soldiers have already been trained to use the new missiles, which have already been shipped from Norway. The donations come from Norwegian Armed Forces stores of equipment that was due to be phased out. But Gram noted that the Norwegian military is pretty tapped out as far as donating from its own weapons lockers. Now it is time to shift to raising money to get weapons for Ukraine directly from defense contractors
“So far, we and our allies have donated military systems and equipment from our own stocks. In the future we will need to cooperate closely with the defense industry in order to maintain necessary deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine. This will also ensure that Ukraine receives more modern and efficient equipment.”
🇩🇪/ 🇺🇦
Ukraine is getting a top-of-the-line counter-battery radar system along with five Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns from Germany. The COBRA counter battery radar can detect incoming artillery and other projectile fire and calculate the location of enemy batteries for quick and accurate return fire.
🇱🇹/ 🇺🇦
Lithuania is donating an unspecified number of M101 105mm towed howitzers to the Ukrainian army.
🇧🇾
Belarus has deployed soldiers for military exercises near the Polish border. The drills are scheduled to go until Wednesday next week with the goal of the exercise to train troops on liberating territory occupied by the enemy as well as regaining control of border regions.