The Evening Report - Sept 29
Security increased at Nordic oil and gas sites. COVID numbers rise in Denmark.
(Editor’s note: Informeret will publish next at the end of October after a three week break for a trip home to Canada)
🚨 Nord Stream pipelines🚨
🇸🇪
The Swedish Coast Guard reported on Thursday that it had found a 4th leak in the Nord Stream pipelines where three leaks had already been identified. The coast guard is in charge of investigating the explosions and pipeline ruptures from the Swedish side of the equation.
🇩🇰 🇳🇴
In the aftermath of the leaks at the Nord Stream pipelines, Norwegian authorities raised the alarm about unauthorized drones around several oil and gas fields in the North Sea. Now drones have also been reported at the Danish Halfdan B oil and gas field, also in the North Sea. The drones were spotted on Wednesday, the day after the Nord Stream pipeline leaks were reported.
In both cases, police in Norway and Denmark are now investigating.
🇩🇰
Energinet, a national Danish government-owned electricity and natural gas operator, has raised its security levels at its sites to orange, the 2nd highest level, in the wake of the Nord Stream pipelines situation. It emphasizes that no security risks to Danish electricity and gas sites have been identified and that the Nord Stream leaks situation is not affecting Danish gas supply.
That said, a special crisis management team has been formed and security at its energy sites is being ramped up and access will be restricted to people who legitimately belong on site. It is also doing an assessment of security at each installation.
“Energinet and the electricity and gas companies are extra aware of any unusual activity in the vicinity of the electricity and gas plants, and therefore, citizens may experience increased monitoring activity at the plants.”
Energinet says the control centers it operates provide extensive around the clock monitoring of the electricity grid and gas pipeline pressure. It says it would immediately know if there were any irregularities both in Denmark and for the system extending outside the country.
The agency says security along the newly inaugurated Baltic pipeline is also being beefed up.
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Calculations from the Danish Energy Agency estimate that the leaks of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, in a worst case scenario, could equal about 778 million standard cubic meters of natural gas. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, that equates to about 14.6 million tonnes of CO2, or roughly 32% of Denmark’s annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2020.
The agency stresses this is an worst case scenario over-calculation with a lot of variables that could impact the actual situation.
🇫🇮
The head of the Finnish Security Intelligence Service (SUPO) Antti Pelttari says the explosions and subsequent ruptures of the Nord Stream pipelines were “very likely a deliberate act.” He says it would require the resources of a “state actor” to carry out such an act of sabotage.
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The Finnish Meteorological Institute says methane concentrations are peaking due to ruptures in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. This was measured by the agency’s atmospheric and marine research station outer archipelago island of Utö, Finland.
🇳🇴
Norway is significantly increasing its military presence at the country’s oil and gas installations in the aftermath of the Nord Stream pipelines situation.
🦠Pandemic🦠
COVID numbers are rising virtually across the board in Denmark, according to the latest weekly assessment from the Statens Serum Institute. After five weeks of stable or declining infection activity, cases are increasing again, with the COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people going up nationally and across all five Danish regions. The incidence rate is highest in Region Sjælland (147) and lowest in Region Hovedstaden (102).
Also headed upward is the positivity percentage, which increased to 16.2% last week. PCR testing activity also rose slightly (+8%). Across Denmark, four of the five regions saw the positivity percentage rise. The exception was Region Nordjylland where it was stable. Region Midtjylland has the highest positivity percentage with 19.4%.
The SSI says coronavirus activity is also increasing across almost every age group, with the exception of children three to five years old where rates declined slightly. Infection numbers continue to be highest among the oldest populations 60 to 69 years old (197 per 100,000) and 70 to 79 years old (229). The positivity percentage rose in every age group except those three to 15 years old. Seniors 60 to 69 years old (18%) and 70 to 79 years old (22%) have the highest positivity percentages.
Among vulnerable seniors in care, there were 185 COVID cases last week, for a 3rd straight week of increasing infection numbers. This was as the testing rate dropped and the positivity percentage among nursing home residents jumped from 4% to 7% from week to week. Hospitalizations rose to 23 last week among seniors in care, an increase of eight from the week previous.
Maintaining the trend were hospitalizations with 457 admissions last week, an increase from the previous weeks 337. Seniors 70 to 79 years old continue to make up the largest proportion of new admissions. ICU numbers, however, remain low, with four fewer admissions last week than the week before. The hospitalization rate directly due to a coronavirus infection remains at 60%.
A six week long decrease in the number of pandemic deaths is over. There were 33 COVID fatalities last week, an increase over the previous week.
Senior Physician Bolette Søborg:
“Infection has increased in virtually all age groups this week, and it will be important to follow the development in the coming weeks, as we expect increasing infections in the autumn"
COVID cases are also on the rise among care home staff despite a slightly declining number of tests. Among hospital workers infection numbers increased by 28% from week to week.
The increase in infection activity is reflected in COVID wastewater surveillance, with slightly higher levels nationally. Four of the five Danish regions also saw increasing virus activity in wastewater sampling. Only Region Nordjylland recorded no changes week to week. While BA.5 remains dominant in Denmark and the most frequently detected strain in wastewater testing, for a 2nd week in a row, BA.2.75 was detected in two testing sites, both in Jutland.
On the variant front, the SSI says about 93% of all sequenced positive test results last week came back as the BA.5 variant or one of its sub-variants. Of those the sub-variant BA.5.2 continues to increase its numbers (27.20%) while BA.5.1 (15.25%) and BA.5.2.1 (17.79%) both saw their growth rate slide. Of the other variants of concern, BF.7 saw its growth ebb slightly week to week (8.82%). There are still just two cases of BJ.1 (0.15%) with one confirmed infection in each of the last weeks. BA.2.75 (2.09%) saw a slight increase with 14 confirmed infections last week.
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Denmark’s Health Minister Magnus Heunicke is urging people to get a 2nd booster dose when the campaign expands on October 1, to include everyone 50 years old and older.
“The number of COVID-related hospitalizations has increased in recent weeks, especially among the oldest age groups. So therefore there is a clear call to action to accept the offer of booster dose to protect yourself, your loved ones, and the healthcare system. The updated COVID vaccines effectively protect against serious illness.”
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Even though the booster dose campaign doesn’t open to people 50 years old and older until Saturday, the system is already seeing some logjams.
National Health Board Deputy Director Helene Bilsted Probst says people might have to hunt for a free time to reserve a little father afield.
“We are aware of the problem and we are working together with the regions to solve it as quickly as possible. In the meantime, we would like to remind you that there are good opportunities to book an appointment for vaccination close to where you live, both at the large vaccination centers and at the general practitioners. In all regions, many general practitioners are involved, and in some regions pharmacies or other private companies are also part of the effort.”
Probst added that while the booster dose campaign has been successful in getting a lot of seniors in care vaccinated there are some who are holding out so they can get the COVID jab alongside the flu shot.
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COVID hospitalizations (387) crept upward (+1) while the number of severe infections in an ICU (8) and of those the number on a ventilator (3) are both unchanged day to day. Infection admissions to a psychiatric facility (60) are also unchanged.
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Denmark has reported 1,348 COVID infections (underreported), including 355 reinfections, and eight coronavirus deaths in the last day.
With 9,651 PCR tests taken yesterday that equals a positivity percentage of 13.96%, over 7 days, it is 16.75%.
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On the vaccination front, so far, 128,060 4th doses, covering 2.2% of the total population, have been administered in a booster dose campaign that began September 15.
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Forget masks, social distancing, or avoiding large gatherings, the Danish National Health Board is concerned people are forgetting all the good hygiene that has helped us through the pandemic so far. How to hammer that point home? Why line dancing of course.
The agency has teamed up with the Westerbro Linedance group on a campaign to remind people to use hand sanitizer, clean surfaces, and cough into their elbow.
You can see the video HERE.
Unit Head Line Raahauge Hvass:
“We are entering a winter without restrictions. Therefore, it is vaccines and infection prevention that should help us get through the winter without too much infection. So there is a very good reason why we should still remember our good hygiene habits, such as washing or sanitizing our hands and staying at home when we are sick.”
The health board conducted a study that found fewer people were diligent about washing their hands this year compared to last, including after taking public transit or going shopping. The rates among young people were particularly bad.
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The Staten Serum Institute’s sentinel monitoring system shows an increasing number of respiratory infections, which have increased by 57% from weeks 34 to 36. Among the respiratory viruses circulating the most in the country are rhinovirus and parainfluenza, which are now joined by enteroviruses, and the seasonal RS virus.
🇸🇪
Sweden has added 5,071 infections (wildly underreported) and another 47 corona deaths in the last week.
To date, 86% of those 12 years old and older have one dose, 84% have two, of those 18 years old and older 66.1% have a booster dose, and of those 65 years old and older 77.1% have a 2nd booster shot.
🇫🇮
Finland registered 5,896 infections and 53 more pandemic deaths since last Thursday.
COVID hospitalizations (749) have jumped (+156).
So far, 79.8% of the total population has one dose, 76.8% have two, 54.1% have a booster dose, & 16.4% have a 2nd booster shot
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Brace for a fall COVID infection wave. That was the message on Thursday from the Finnish Institute for Health. It tabled a new pandemic forecast that showed infection cases would once again rise.
The institute says it is keeping a close eye on the BA.2 and BA.4 variants due to their heightened ability to evade an immune response.
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Finland continues to chart a slightly different path than its Nordic neighbours when it comes to COVID vaccination recommendations. The Finnish Institute for Health says at the moment it won’t recommend booster doses for healthcare workers and those working in the social sector in places like senior care homes.
Research Manager Merit Melin says there is a lack of research into the efficacy of the new variant-specific vaccines.
“Variant-tailored vaccines are recommended as booster doses in order to expand the immunological basis of protection. However, we do not yet know what their protection against infections is like compared to the original vaccine preparations, and what effect this would have on people calling in sick.”
The agency is also relying on hybrid immunity, the protection offered by being both vaccinated and having had a COVID infection.
“Since the proportion of those infected during the spring Omicron wave of 2022 has grown to a large extent, especially in the youngest age groups, a very large proportion of those over the age of 12 have hybrid immunity. Hybrid immunity is stronger and recognizes a wider variety of virus variants than the protection formed as a result of infection or vaccination alone.”
The agency does say that any healthcare worker who is eligible to be vaccinated due to being old enough or having an underlying health issue, should get vaccinated as they would in any other target group. Currently, in Finland, those 65 years old and older, anyone 18 years old and older who is considered high-risk, and anyone 12 years old and older who has a severely compromised immune system, are all eligible for a 4th vaccine dose.
Anniina Virkku, a medical specialist at the Finnish Institute for Health, said it was currently unnecessary to give another booster dose to people under the age of 65 if they are in good health.
🇳🇴
Norway added 506 infections (underreported) and 33 more virus deaths in the last week.
COVID hospital admissions (82) in the last seven days are down (-10).
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Norway’s COVID pandemic continues to remain in a “calm phase” according to the latest bi-weekly situation report from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. It says over the last two weeks infection activity was either flat or slightly decreasing. Although it warns the situation also remains “unpredictable.”
COVID hospitalizations continue to remain stable, with 86 new admissions in each of the last two weeks.
As of now, there are no SARS-CoV-2 virus variants that threaten the situation. But variants of interest and variants under special surveillance are constantly being discovered and are slightly increasing.
Serious illness from covid-19, influenza and other respiratory infections
Hospital admissions with influenza: 5 new admissions with influenza were registered in week 38, after <5 in week 37 and 6 in week 36. ICU numbers also continue to tread water, with six severely infected people admitted last week compared to 10 in each of the preceding three weeks.
Pandemic fatalities are also holding the line on the stable trend, with 22 fatalities last week and the week before.
Norway’s COVID wastewater surveillance system only covers about 30% of the country, but it indicated a slight downtrend until last week, where virus activity increased slightly.
COVID-related visits to a family doctor or emergency room continued to ease as they have been since week 29. Infection outbreaks in hospitals and other healthcare facilities haven’t changed, with seven in each of the last two weeks.
The BA.5 variant remains king in Norway, coming back in 95% of all sequenced positive tests in the last two weeks. The institute says at the moment there is no other variant that poses a concern.
🇩🇪
Germany recorded 78,863 infections while suffering 94 more virus deaths since its Wednesday update.
It added 1,532 COVID hospitalizations while ICU numbers (858) rose (+12). As a percentage of all ICU beds in the country, coronavirus patients are using 4%.
So far, 77.8% of the population has one dose, 76.2% have two, and 62.1% have a booster dose.
WHO🦠
Global COVID numbers dipped according to the latest weekly pandemic update tabled by the World Health Organization. It says infection numbers dropped by 11% in the week ending September 25. Pandemic fatalities also dropped by 18 week-to-week, but that still means over 8,900 more lives were lost.
The decline in infection activity was reflected across all six WHO regions, with the African region seeing the largest drop (-15%) while Europe (-1%) had the least. It was almost the same story for pandemic deaths, with Africa seeing the largest decline (-34%) and South-East Asia having the least (-3%).
At the country level, Japan continues to see the most new infections of any nation on earth with another 535,502. They were followed by the United States with 361,599 new coronavirus infections. More Americans died due to a COVID infection last week than any other country with 2,484 lives lost. China recorded 497 fatalities, a 38% week-to-week increase.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇩🇪
The German government has reached a consensus on calling gas prices to buffer consumers from soaring energy costs. The subsidy plan could cost up to €200 billion. However, some economic experts are warning that the plan could further fuel inflation , which hit a record high of 10% in September.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Beginning Friday, Finland will no longer issue tourist visas to Russian citizens minus a few very specific exemptions. All existing tourist visas whether they were issued by Finnish border authorities or elsewhere will also be invalidated.
Foreign Affairs Minister Pekka Haavisto:
“The Finnish government issued a resolution to significantly restrict the entry of Russian tourists into Finland. The entry restrictions will enter into force on 30 September 2022, at midnight, and they will remain in force until further notice. The aim of the resolution is to halt Russian tourism into Finland and their transit through Finland into other Schengen countries.
With the move, the minister recognized that this could lead to increasing efforts by Russians to cross the border illegally. But he emphasized that Finland has already been working to strengthen border security including installing new fencing.
Meanwhile, the number of Russians crossing the border into Finland has declined, but it may not be just Finnish changes behind the dropping numbers. Russian authorities have set up military conscription offices on the Russian side of the border to ‘recruit’ men into the army who are trying to flee the country.
🇸🇪/ 🇹🇷
A delegation from Sweden will travel to Turkey next month for scheduled talks over Turkey’s concern over “the extradition of criminal terrorists” from Sweden. Turkey is using its vote to ratify, or not, Sweden’s NATO application to squeeze concessions out of the Nordic nation. Sweden and Finland need all 30 NATO member states to ratify their applications for the two countries to become full members of the military alliance.
So far, 28 of the 30 NATO member countries have ratified the ascension protocols. Only Hungary and Turkey have yet to vote.
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
The European Union levied an 8th round of sanctions on Russia this week. While adding to the list of individuals facing personal sanctions, the new package also brings down import bans on Russian products. The EU Commission says this will hit the Russian treasury for another €7 billion in lost revenues.
The EU will also expand the list of products that cannot be exported into Russia. This includes things like aviation equipment, chemicals, and electronic components.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen:
“These new export bans will additionally weaken Russia's economic base and will weaken its capacity to modernise. We will also propose additional bans on providing European services to Russia, and a prohibition for EU nationals to sit on governing bodies of Russian state-owned enterprises. Russia should not benefit from European knowledge and expertise.”
The new sanctions package also levies a price cap on Russian oil for third countries. The EU claims this will further hit Russia in its bank accounts while keeping global energy markets stable.
The sanctions also introduce a new avenue, sanctioning anyone who is found to be helping to circumvent existing sanctions.
“So, for example, if they buy goods in the European Union, bring them to third countries and then to Russia, this would be a circumvention of our sanctions, and those individuals could be listed. I think this will have a major deterring effect.”