The Evening Report - Sept 22
Warning signs in Denmark. WHO: the end of the pandemic is in sight.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
Most COVID indicators were more or less stable, but there are a few potential warning signs in the data as the Statens Serum Institute releases its latest weekly pandemic assessment.
After a slight increase in case numbers in week 36, there was a slight decrease last week. The slight fluctuation up and then back down is also reflected in the positivity percentage, which was 13.3% last week. Weekly PCR testing numbers also remained stable.
Across the five Danish regions infection rates dropped slightly in Region Hovedstaden (Metro Copenhagen) and Region Midtjylland while there were slight increases in Region Nordjylland and Region Sjælland. Region Syddanmark’s numbers treaded water last week. Region Sjælland has the highest COVID incidence rate (110 per 100,000 people) while Region Hovedstaden and Region Region Midtjylland had the lowest (both 79). As for the positivity percentage, only Region Nordjylland recorded an increase.
Looking at it by age group, Denmark’s oldest continue to be most at risk, with those 60 years old and older being the only age group to see an increasing infection incidence rate. The incidence rate remains highest among those 70 to 79 years old (155 per 100,000 people) as was the positivity percentage (18%) followed by 60 to 69 year olds (146) and with a positivity percentage of 15%.
After rising coronavirus activity detected over a three to four week stretch, COVID wastewater surveillance shows activity stabilizing over the last two weeks nationally. Among the regions, only Region Syddanmark saw a slight increase in coronavirus activity
COVID hospitalizations saw another slight increase for a 2nd week in a row, with 337 last week compared to 318 the week previous. As has been the case all year, seniors 70 to 89 years old continue to make up the largest number of new admissions. Intensive care numbers remain low, with just 10 last week. 61% of coronavirus-related hospital admissions are directly due to an infection, with the rest being people who are testing positive but are being admitted for a non-pandemic reason.
The good news is that COVID fatalities have continued to fall for a sixth week in a row. There were 22 pandemic deaths last week. Nine of those were seniors in care.
Infections among seniors in care are rising, with 116 confirmed cases last week. There were 102 the week before. The test rate has also increased. However, hospitalizations were down with 15 last week, four fewer than the week before. The positivity percentage among nursing homes is stable at 4%.
Infections rose by 10% among employees working in the social sector; this includes those working in senior care homes. Among employees in the sector testing rates are up while the positivity percentage dropped to 4.2%. The SSI says the same trend is seen among hospital employees, except the testing rate is stable and the positivity percentage increased last week.
BA.5 remains the dominant variant in Denmark, but the story is shifting to all of its sub-variants. While BA.5 makes up about 93% of all sequenced positive tests, the sub variant BA.5.2 (22.41%) has become the most frequent sub-variant. Trailing behind it are BA.5.1 (20.20%) and BA.5.2.1 (16.48%). Another sub-variant BF.7, continues to gain ground making up 11% of infections, but the SSI adds “there are no signs that this is more serious than other variants”. The agency says it has yet to confirm any BJ.1 infections as it keeps an eye out for the latest variant sparking concern. It should also be noted that COVID wastewater surveillance found BA.2.75 in two locations in Jutland. This marks the first time in five weeks that a variant other than BA.5 has been detected in wastewater.
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COVID hospitalizations (308) dipped slightly (-6) while the number of severe infections in an ICU (6) and of those the number on a ventilator (1) are both unchanged day to day. Infection admissions to a psychiatric facility (60) are down a little (-3).
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Denmark reported 859 COVID infections (underreported), including 219 reinfections, and five more coronavirus deaths in the last day.
With 6,409 PCR tests taken yesterday that equals a positivity percentage of 13.40%, over seven days, the rate is 13.98%.
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On the vaccination front, the Danish booster dose campaign has administered 96,014 4th doses so far covering 1.6% of the total population, while 81.3% have one dose, 79.9% have two, and 61.6% have a first booster shot.
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Denmark will continue to keep its daily PCR testing capacity at 10,000, with the means in place to rapidly scale up to 30,000 tests performed per day if the situation calls for it.
TestCenter Denmark Director Anne-Marie Vangsted:
“With this model, we can easily turn it up and down depending on the need for testing. At the same time, we have a preparedness system which means that we are prepared and can increase the testing capacity further if the need increases.”
PCR testing capacity in the healthcare system is kept separate and there the daily testing capacity will remain at 20,000.
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Denmark’s Queen Margrethe has tested positive for COVID. The Danish Royal House confirmed the news with a post on its website on Wednesday. The Queen’s activities for the week have been canceled and she is resting at Fredensborg Palace. Her positive test came just a few days after attending Queen Elizabeth’s funeral in London. This is the Queen’s second bout with coronavirus.
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Respiratory infections, which were increasing, are now leveling off, according to the Statens Serum Institute’s sentinel surveillance. The SSI says after four weeks of increasing activity, the last two weeks have stabilized. Other than coronavirus, it says rhinovirus and parainfluenza were the two most common respiratory infections detected.
🇸🇪
Sweden has added 4,849 infections (wildly underreported) and another 78 corona deaths since last Thursday.
To date, 87.3% of those 12 years old and older have one vaccine dose, 85.3% have two, and of those 18 years old and older, 66.9% have a 3rd dose.
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Sweden has lost its National vaccine coordinator. Swedish media are reporting that Richard Bergström resigned the position well before he was scheduled to leave the post in June of 2023. He had been appointed to the position in June of 2020, to author a report into access to COVID vaccines. Apparently that report is ready and Bergström believes he has fulfilled his mandate.
A new Swedish government is still in the process of being formed, so his successor, should one be appointed, will have to wait until the aftermath of the recent National election sorts itself out.
Swedish Public Health Agency Coordinator Sören Andersson:
“It is too early to say how best to organize it. There must be a dialogue in the future between the government office and the relevant authorities. It also depends on how you think that EU cooperation should continue, if, how and in what way.”
🇫🇮
Finland has registered 9,571 infections and 70 virus deaths since its last update last Thursday.
COVID hospitalizations (593) have risen (+44).
So far, 79.8% have one dose, 76.9% have two, 54.1% have one booster dose, and 16.1% have a 2nd.
🇳🇴
Norway has added 419 infections (underreported) and 27 more pandemic deaths in the last week.
COVID hospital admissions (86) have dipped (-7).
So far, 80.5% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one dose, 75.1% have two, and 55.9% have a booster dose.
🇩🇪
Germany registered 56,978 new infections and suffered another 106 pandemic deaths since its Wednesday update.
It added 1,248 COVID hospitalizations while ICU numbers (705) nudged upward (+14). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country, coronavirus patients are using 3.2%.
So far, 77.9% of the total population have at least once dose, 76.3% have two, and 62.1% have a booster dose.
🇪🇺🦠
The European Union has another tool in the toolbox to fight the COVID pandemic. The European Commission has approved the use of the medicine Evusheld, an antibody therapy used to treat coronavirus infections. The drug had limited approval for use in March, for use with patients who weren’t getting the full protection from vaccination or who couldn’t take the vaccine for medical reasons. The approval for use has now been extended to everyone 12 years old and older who are at high-risk.
WHO🌎🦠
In its latest global pandemic update, the World Health Organization says the new number of weekly cases as of September 18 is stable week to week with over 3.2 million new infections. Keep in mind that number is likely well underreported. The really good news is that COVID deaths around the world fell by another 17% but even then that is another 9,800 lives lost. The number of reported global pandemic deaths has now hit 6.5 million but as several studies, including one from the WHO, point out, the ‘real’ number of worldwide fatalities could easily be triple that.
Cases across the six WHO regions either treaded water or declined.
African Region (-35%)
Eastern Mediterranean Region (-14%)
Region of the Americas (-12%)
South-East Asia Region (-8%)
European Region (-1%)
Western Pacific Region (+3%)
Looking at the individual countries, Japan remains one of the hardest hit at the moment as it saw over 600,000 new infections in the week, a 13% increase. Cases fell by 11% in the United States while infection cases increased in China (+13%) and Russia (+10%).
The U.S. reported the highest number of weekly fatalities, with 2,601 Americans losing their lives to the virus (+5%). With 595 pandemic deaths, Spain saw its fatality numbers jump by 83% week to week.
With all that in mind, WHO Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus continues to say the end of the pandemic is in sight.
“Yes, we’re in a better position than we’ve ever been. The number of weekly COVID deaths continues to decline, and are now just 10% of what they were at the peak in January of 2021. But 10,000 deaths a week is 10,000 too many, when most of these deaths could be prevented. We have spent two-and-a-half years in a long, dark tunnel, and we are just beginning to glimpse the light at the end of that tunnel. But it is still a long way off, and the tunnel is still dark, with many obstacles that could trip us up if we don’t take care.”
Dr. Tedros says with two-thirds of the world’s population now vaccinated, it puts the world in a better place to fight the virus. That said, he emphasized, poor and developing countries remain in a much different and more fraught position.
“Just 19% of the population of low-income countries is vaccinated, and access to life-saving treatments is virtually non-existent. So I welcome today’s announcement by the Global Fund that it has signed an agreement with Pfizer to facilitate access to the antiviral [coronavirus treatments] nirmatrelvir, ritonavir, or Paxlovid, for [developing] countries through the ACT Accelerator.”
🇯🇵
Japan is lifting its very strict COVID entry restrictions. As of October 11, travel to Japan will return to pre-pandemic normal, according to comments made by the Japanese Prime Minister and reported on by several news agencies. Japan, which put a tight lid on tourists when the pandemic struck, eased restrictions at the beginning of September to allow tourists on guided tours booked through travel companies to enter the country. But soon all restrictions will be removed.
🦠Study
A new study involving millions of seniors has found that elderly people who become infected with coronavirus are at greater risk of being diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease within a year of testing positive.
The study, published in the Journal of Alzheimer's Disease, had about six-million participants and found that about seven out of every 1,000 seniors who had a confirmed COVID infection in the past year were diagnosed with Alzheimers. This compares to a rate of five out of every 1,000 seniors without a confirmed infection.
The study is careful to note it did not find that COVID causes Alzheimer’s but rather inflammation due to a coronavirus infection can make changes already occurring in the brain worse.
Washington University School of Medicine Neurologist David Hoffman:
“When there are other things that cause inflammation in the body, it can affect the brain and reinforce the process that is already going on.”
Hoffman adds that further research is required.
The Alzheimer’s Association’s Heather Snyder has her own doubts as she raises the possibility that some of the study’s participants already had undiagnosed cases of Alzheimer’s before they contracted COVID.
“The result may have been driven by those who already had Alzheimer's when they were infected but who did not yet have a diagnosis.”
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada updates its COVID statistics once a week every Friday.
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It is not quite official yet, as nothing has been announced by the Canadian government, but it looks like news that entry restrictions will be lifted is about to be announced soon.
🦠Monkeypox🦠
The World Health Organization says the global monkeypox infection curve co tiniest to decline. So far, there have been 62,000 confirmed infections across 105 countries with 23 deaths.
WHO Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus:
“The trends are encouraging, but as with COVID, this is not the time for any country or community to assume those trends will continue. This is the time to keep doing what works.”
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
As Russian President Vladimir Putin chooses to escalate the war in Ukraine by announcing a partial mobilization of 300,000 conscripts and threatens nuclear war if Ukraine continues to liberate occupied territories, the EU is responding.
The European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell Fontelles called an ad-hoc meeting of European Foreign Affairs Ministers in New York where they are gathered for United Nations meetings. His message coming out of that meeting was not one of backing down. Rather, more sanctions are coming for Russia and weapons will continue to flow from Europe to Ukraine.
“We decided to bring forward as soon as possible additional restrictive measures against Russia in coordination with our partners? We will continue to support Ukraine’s efforts through the provision of military equipment.”
He added that support for Ukrainian Armed Forces liberating occupied territory remains steadfast despite Putin’s threats of using weapons of mass destruction.
“In line with the United Nations Charter and international law, Ukraine is exercising its legitimate right to defend itself against the Russian aggression, to regain full control of its territory, and it has the right to liberate occupied territories within its internationally recognized borders.”
🇳🇴/ 🇷🇺
Norway has cancelled its visa agreement with Russia, according to a post on the website of the Norwegian Immigration Agency, UDI. This does away with a simplified visa process for Russian citizens and relegates them in line with all other “ordinary” visa applicants.
🇪🇸/ 🇫🇮 🇸🇪
Make it 27. The Spanish Senate has voted to approve the ascension protocols for Sweden and Finland to become full time members of NATO. That makes 27 countries out of the 30 member states the two Nordic nations need to join the military alliance. Turkey remains the key hurdle. The other two nations yet to ratify are Slovakia and Hungary.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
As Russia proceeds with forced mobilizations, a lot of Russians, especially men in the age range of conscription, have been looking for anyway they can to get out of the country. At the only land crossing into Europe open to them, in Finland, border officials reported an increase in traffic on Wednesday.
Finnish Border Services International Department Head Matti Pitkaniitty spoke to Yle:
“The number has clearly increased.”
Over 4,800 Russian citizens showed up at the Finnish border on Wednesday, a big increase from the 3,133 on the same day a week ago.
This is happening as Finland looks to take action to severely restrict the ability of Russian citizens to cross the border.
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin says the changing situation in Russia requires that authorities in Finland do a very rapid reassessment of the risks.
“The assessment has to be done very quickly.”
Marin says ideally Finland will find a way to all but close its doors to Russian visitors.
“We have to put an end to Russian travel and tourism. How to do this is a more complicated question.”
Finland has been left with the only country bordering Russia where Russians can cross a land border into Europe. Last week, the Baltic states and Poland all but closed their birders to most Russian citizens.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇩🇰
The Danish government is preparing to table relief measures for soaring energy bills. DR has seen a draft of an energy agreement reached in parliament. It reports that the tax on electricity will be reduced, the cost difference on energy bills deferred, and more money will be sent out to families with children to subsidize extra costs. It will also cap energy bills for electricity, gas, and district heating for individuals as part of the bill deferment scheme. Companies may also be included in the deferment plan.
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A majority of the Danish parliament has also voted to put a cap on rent, limiting rental increases in the private rental market to 4% over year for the next two years. The move is designed to combat inflation as the energy crisis and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to contribute to rapidly rising prices.
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Consumer confidence in Denmark has fallen to its lowest level in 48 years, according to the latest assessment of the public mood by Statistics Denmark. The agency routinely takes the public’s temperature on a range of topics including the economic outlook. Danes have been growing increasingly pessimistic about the economy as the year has progressed. This is in combination with growing concern about their own household finances as the cost of everything rises. The agency says prices have risen 8.9% in the last year.
🇩🇪
Germany is spending billions of euros to keep flailing energy companies afloat. Earlier this week the German government nationalized gas giant Uniper and now it is considering taking over SEFE, a German subsidiary of Russian energy giant Gazprom. SEFE has been in insolvency protection since April. The German government has been keeping it afloat with a €10 billion loan. The firm is considered essential for the European gas market.
This comes as German Economy Minister Robert Habeck says the economy will lose almost €60 billion over the course of 2022 directly because of the energy crisis and the soaring cost of electricity, gas, and other fuels.
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As winter approaches, Germany is wrestling with the energy crisis amid a vengeful Russia turning off the gas taps; it is doing all it can to save natural gas. Nationally, gas storage tanks are over 90% full as the country braces for a winter with considerable concerns over energy supplies.