The Evening Report - Oct 26
Winter infection waves begin. EU wind energy woes.
🇫🇮 🇪🇪/ 🇨🇳
It turns out dragging an anchor to damage undersea infrastructure has been a deliberate tactic by China for many years. This week the Hong Kong-registered cargo ship Newnew Polar Bear was named as the suspect vessel in the damage to the Baltic connector gas pipeline and an adjacent data cable running between Finland and Estonia. Finnish authorities noted drag marks along the sea bottom leading up to the site of the pipeline damage. They also recovered a massive ship’s anchor nearby. Swedish journalist Jojje Olsson lives in Asia and writes the biggest Swedish newsletter on events in China and Taiwan. He says that is exactly the tactic China has deployed to destroy Taiwanese internet cables in over 30 instances to date.
“It may sound far-fetched that a Chinese container ship would deliberately use its anchor to sabotage wires and cables deep in the Baltic Sea. But anyone who follows China's "gray zone tactics" of provocations against Taiwan immediately notices how Chinese ships have already put this in place on the other side of the world.”
Olsson writes that using fishing boats and other Chinese-registered civilian vessels as soft front-line marine provocateurs have been a pattern for many years in the waters off of Taiwan, Japan, and many of the Indonesian islands.
“As the tactic has been effective in East Asia, it would be quite appropriate to also try it in other parts of the world. If it boils down to it, the Chinese authorities have the opportunity not only to deny what happened but also to deny their involvement if what happened is proven beyond reasonable doubt.”
You can read Olssen’s article in full (in Swedish) HERE.
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Finnish officials said on Thursday that they have now been in communication with Chinese authorities who have promised to cooperate in the investigation. Reuters reported that China’s Foreign Affairs ministry is willing to provide "necessary information in accordance with international law" in relation to the incident.
🇸🇪
The Swedish Navy said this week that a communications cable running between Sweden and Estonia had been physically moved out of position but couldn’t say how it was done or why.
The navy has been doing a sweep of underwater infrastructure between Estonia and Sweden as countries across Europe ratchet up security along underwater pipelines and key communications cables.
Jimmie Adamssom is the Chief Press Officer for Sweden’s naval forces.
🍃Environment & Energy⚡️
🇩🇰
After last weekend’s huge storm surge, the issue of coastal protection has suddenly become top of mind in Denmark even as the cleanup from all the flooding continues. Mayors on the Danish island of Fyn aren’t happy with the government’s climate adaption plan saying it doesn’t lay out a clear pathway for funding to tackle coastal protections.
Chairman of the Technical and Environmental Committee, Jesper Kiel from Svendborg spoke to DR:
“We are faced with having to spend between 500 to 900 million kroner on coastal protection in our municipality. The big question right now is; where will the money come from? I don't think there is an answer to that when I read through this.”
Politicians and industry associations across Denmark are now calling for a comprehensive plan from the government to address the giant task of protecting Denmark’s coastline against storm surges and rising ocean waters. There is even talk of forming some kind of national association to lobby the government for change.
The Danish government’s climate adaptation plan has 1.1 billion kroner (about $214 million Cdn) for coastal protection but only for municipalities along the west coast. There is just 150 million kroner (about $29 million Cdn) for those on the east coast where last weekend’s historic storm surge caused widespread flooding.
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Last weekend’s massive flooding has undone years of hard work to save belly frogs from the brink of extinction. For two decades now a team from Copenhagen Zoo has been working in a wetland in the South Fyn archipelago to restore the endangered frog population. Last weekend rising ocean waters flooded the area and the frogs cannot live in a salt water habitat.
Zookeeper Lene Vestergren Rasmussen
“Unfortunately, I think they are all dead. It's heartbreaking and I'm feeling awful. Since we started this project, the bell frog has really needed our help. We will continue every effort.”
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Almost 2,000 reports have been filed so far on flood damages due to last weekend’s huge storm surge that sent flood waters pouring into homes and towns across Denmark. Ritzau reports that the Danish Natural Damage Database has received 1,915 claims so far. Depending on the type of flood damage a claim must be filed either to the national database or to individual insurance agencies.
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Denmark’s green transition has hit another speed bump. One of the key initiatives has been to switch homes using old gas boilers to district heating systems called fjernvarme. But simple economics has thrown a monkey-wrench into things. KL, the group repressing Danish municipalities, and Dansk Fjernvarme say the switch to district heating has hit a fairly serious snag. The goal was to convert an average of 5,700 homes using gas boilers to district heating every month. However, in each of the last four months, numbers have dropped to less than a fifth of that.
KL and Dansk Fjernvarme say that the cost to install district heating has increased substantially while gas prices far removed from last year’s energy crisis have dropped significantly. So many homeowners using gas boilers are doing the basic math and realizing it’s better for their budget to hold off.
Dansk Fjernvarme Director Kim Mortensen spoke to DR:
“I think that both the government and the Danish Parliament have a huge task in promoting the green transition. That is why we are phasing out fossil fuels and creating a CO2-neutral Denmark. The district heating component is an absolutely crucial piece in achieving success. Therefore, it is the responsibility of the government to follow up on this.”
Danish municipalities are warning that the transition to district heating faces serious delays and if nothing is done it could be scrapped altogether.
The Danish government created a fund to help homeowners transition away from their gas boilers but applications for support have vastly exceeded available funding.
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A group of citizens and businesses on the Danish island of Bornholm have been working for years on a grassroots effort to get nine offshore wind turbines set up near the town of Nexø. They found this week their years of work were to no avail as the proposal was rejected by the Danish Energy Agency. While the Danish government has agreed to expand offshore wind energy in the Baltic but waters around Bornholm aren’t included in the areas of interest. On that basis, the energy agency turned the project down.
Helle Munk Ravnborg sits on the municipal council and has been working with the offshore wind initiative in Bornholm. She spoke to DR:
“I think it is completely bizarre if I have to be completely honest. We need a green transition now. We need it to happen with local support, and then you say no. It is completely incomprehensible and very unfortunate for us. What they had succeeded in doing on Bornholm was actually gathering local support from citizens and businesses, which we have not seen anything similar anywhere else for a project of this size before.”
Had the project gone ahead the wind turbines would have helped Bornholm achieve energy self-sufficiency.
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There is a push within Denmark to include take-away packaging in the national recycling program. Currently disposable cups and any boxes or containers holding your take-away food go directly into the trash without having to be sorted. The organization Plastic Change is pushing for this to change. It says this is a waste of resources and adds to the problems facing the environment. It is working with business and industry organizations to create change. The group sent a letter to four Danish ministers asking for the implementation of a nationwide recycling system for take-away packaging. It wants all the cups, boxes, containers, and wrapping to be collected, cleaned, and then re-used. Plastic Change estimates that 130 million disposable coffee cups alone end up being tossed in the trash each year.
🇪🇺 💨
The European Union is trying to come to the aid of a troubled European wind energy sector. The EU Commission plans to streamline the tender process and speed up project approvals. Europe’s wind energy companies have been facing glacial bureaucracy in getting projects built while also being squeezed by competition from China and the United States.
On Thursday, General Electric revealed in its 3rd quarter earnings that its offshore wind business has wracked up $1 billion in losses so far this year. While Siemens Energy was revealed to have gone hat in hand to the German government seeking a bailout. The news caused its stock price to drop to record lows, falling 39% at the close of trading Thursday afternoon.
🇪🇺
Electricity and natural gas prices are stabilizing in Europe after last year’s energy crisis but prices overall remain very high. EuroStat, the EU’s statistics agency, says the energy prices continued to increase in the first half of 2023. Average household electricity rose from €25.3 per 100 kWh to €28.9 year over year. Average gas prices also increased from €8.6 per 100 kWh to €11.9. The agency says “These prices are the highest recorded by Eurostat.”
Looking at the individual EU countries electricity prices rose in 22 nations in the first half of the year while natural gas prices rose in 20 of the 24 countries that report gas price data. The Netherlands saw the single largest jump (+953%) in electricity prices in the first six months of the year. It was followed by Lithuania (+88%), Romania (+77%) and Latvia (+74%). On the other end of the scale Spain saw the biggest drop (-41%) followed by Denmark (-16%), Portugal (-6%), Malta (-3%) and Luxembourg with close to zero (-0.4%).
On the natural gas front, Latvia (+139%) saw the biggest increase followed by Romania (+134%), Austria (+103%), and the Netherlands (+99%). While prices were down in Estonia, Croatia and Italy (between -0.6% and -0.5%).
In the Nordics Sweden (€21.9) and Denmark (€16.6) had some of the highest gas prices in Europe in the first half of the year.
🇸🇪
A stretch of the Swedish coast near Karlskrona was hit with an oil and diesel spill last weekend, Clean up of oily residue that has washed ashore near the town of Hørvik continued through the week.
A ferry called the Marco Polo was the source of the spill. It apparently ran aground not once but twice while making its way from Trelleborg to Karlshamn last Sunday. It leaked oil and diesel in its wake along the Swedish coast for the three nautical miles from the first collision to the second.
🦠COVID🦠
🚨New Variant Alert🚨
The BA.2.86 variant is already spitting out a number of sub-strains and one is causing concern among epidemiologists. Called JN.1 the new variant is spreading fast in France raising fears of an even more evolved ability to dodge around immune protections. Besides France the new strain has already been confirmed in the US, Iceland, Portugal, Belgium, Israel, Spain, Netherlands, Canada, Germany, and Singapore.
As with any new strain, and there are lots all the time, there are always more questions than answers at first. We will have to wait to see what the data in the weeks ahead has to say about whether this is a genuine cause for concern or not.
🇩🇰
There has been a “strong increase” in coronavirus activity across Denmark in the last three weeks according to COVID wastewater surveillance results.
The Statens Serum Institute says COVID activity continues to rise with indicators rising over the last five weeks. At the same time, the agency is warning that other respiratory infections are also increasing as the usual winter sicknesses begin to spread. Chief among them is the first sign of an arriving RS virus wave. The SSI says last week there were 61 confirmed RS virus infections, a noticeable increase from weeks past.
“Although the incidence is still at a low level, based on experience from previous seasons, more widespread infection with the RS virus must also be expected in the coming weeks. It is primarily children under the age of two who are diagnosed with the RS virus.”
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Winter vaccinations continue to plug along. Data from the Statens Serum Institute show that a shade under 1.4 million COVID booster doses and flu shots have been administered so far. The vaccination campaign began on October 1st and to date 605,636 eligible people in Denmark have had a COVID booster dose while 781,516 have had an influenza vaccination.
Seniors over 65 and those in high-risk or vulnerable populations are eligible for both a COVID booster and a flu shot. Children between two and six years old can also have a special pediatric influenza nasal vaccine.
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A whooping cough epidemic continues in Denmark. The Statens Serum Institute says there have been an average of 227 confirmed infections over each of the last five weeks.
“Whooping cough can be very serious for infants, and as there are more cases than usual, there are also more cases than usual among infants.”
The SSI reactivated whooping cough (pertussis) vaccinations over the summer. Pregnant women in particular are being urged to get vaccinated.
🇸🇪
It looks like the winter COVID wave may be arriving in Sweden. The Swedish Public Health Agency says coronavirus infections have begun “gradually increasing.” The agency says there was a 38% increase in confirmed cases between the first and second week of October. Keeping in mind the extremely low amount of testing being done these numbers are extremely likely to be underreported.
State Epidemiologist Magnus Gisslén:
“We now see that the spread of infection is increasing, even if it is at a relatively low level. For people with an increased risk of severe infections, it is important to get vaccinated against both COVID and influenza according to current recommendations. The vaccine that is now offered against COVID has been updated to better match the virus variants that are circulating. The vaccination effort is timed to provide the best possible protection against COVID and influenza during the period when the two viruses circulate the most.”
The national health agency is recommending that seniors 65 years old and older get the latest variant-specific booster dose along with anyone over 18 who is in a high-risk or vulnerable population.
Swedish health officials began vaccinating seniors in care in mid-October. The general vaccination effort for those eligible begins on November 1.
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COVID hospitalizations (654) are rocketing upward in Sweden (+323) while the number of severely infected people in an ICU (18) has also increased (+7).
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A hospital in Northern Sweden is canceling some surgeries due to a surge in COVID patients. Skellefteå Hospital has also banned visitors due to the coronavirus outbreak. COVID admissions are also surging in other Swedish regions including Stockholm.
🇳🇴
COVID activity in Norway is ticking back upwards again but there isn’t yet any indication of an impending influenza or RS virus wave. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health says there has been “a slightly increasing trend” across COVID indicators
Infection-related hospital admissions remain stable with 557 new admissions in the last two weeks. There have been just 13 new intensive care patients over the same time period.
“Hospitals and municipalities must be prepared that admissions with influenza, COVID and other respiratory infections will increase throughout the autumn and winter.”
Another 48 lives have been lost to the coronavirus in Norway in the last 14 days.
The NIPH says that the EG.5.1.X variant is dominant in Norway but there have been increasing signs of BA.2.86 activity as detected in Norway’s COVID wastewater surveillance system.
The institute says there is some influenza A activity but cases are low as are any infection-related hospitalizations with just 26 admissions in the last two weeks. There hasn’t been a single new flu-related ICU patient over the same period.
On the Norwegian vaccination front, there have been a shade over one million influenza inoculations administered. The NIPH says 22% of those eligible have had a flu shot so far. Among healthcare workers, just 8.4% have been vaccinated against influenza.
On the COVID booster dose side, 13.5% of Norwegians over 65 have been topped up.
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Norway’s King Harold has COVID according to the Norwegian Royal House. The king has canceled all his events for at least the next week while he recovers.
🇬🇧
COVID hospitalizations in England continue to decline. Admissions were down 15% from week to week according to the COVID Actuaries Response Group. The drop in admissions was seen across all health regions. Intensive care occupancy also fell by 8%.
The reinfection rate, or R0, has dropped to 0.89. Anything over one indicates degrees of a spreading epidemic.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada says there were another 155 lives lost to the coronavirus in the latest weekly update. It says that there has been an “overall, gradual, increasing trend in weekly deaths since mid-July.”
The agency is emphasizing that infection numbers, related hospitalizations, and virus deaths remain highest among seniors.
COVID hospitalizations have eased just a tiny bit in Canada after climbing steeply in recent weeks. In the week ending October 17, there were 3,786 total beds in use by infected patients across the country, which is 11 fewer than the week before. Infection-related general admissions dropped by 20, to 3,631. But intensive care numbers rose by nine to 155. While the number of severely infected people requiring a ventilator also crept up to 69, one more than the week previous.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇪🇺🇺🇦🇱🇹/ 🇷🇺
The European Union is falling well short of its own lofty goal to increase ammunition production in order to supply one million artillery shells to Ukraine by March of next year. The EU made the pledge last spring and with over six months having passed since, only 30% of the promised number of shells have so far been delivered.
Lithuania’s Foreign Affairs Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis:
“The EU promised Ukraine 1,000,000 artillery rounds. So far, we have delivered only 300,000. Meanwhile, North Korea delivered 350,000 to Russia. We surely have the resources to outperform North Korea. We should stop being frozen in the headlights while brave Ukrainians die.”
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Finland needs to be ready in the event Russia weaponizes immigrants and sends them en mass to the Finnish border. That was the message from the head of the European Union’s border agency Frontex to Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat. Hans Leijtens said that Frontex would deploy to Finland to assist with border control in the event of a situation like that. He says Russia is already using that tactic on the border between Belarus and Poland to apply pressure on Europe. That said, he notes that the extremely long Finnish-Russian border would present challenges in responding to any sudden wave of immigrants.
Finland is in the process of building a 200-kilometer-long border fence along a stretch of its 1,340 km-long border with Russia.
🇸🇪/ 🇭🇺 🇹🇷
We have a tentative date for when the Hungarian parliament might vote on Sweden’s NATO application. The Hungarian parliamentarians will sit on November 6, which is the earliest a possible ratification vote might happen. Whether a vote actually takes place remains up in the air as Hungary’s ruling party has established a repeated habit of teasing a vote only to ya k it off the table again.
Turkey’s President has signed off on Sweden’s ascension protocols and forwarded the matter to his parliament but a firm voting date has yet to materialize. That said, the ratification vote paperwork has begun to go through the necessary parliamentary procedures required before an actual vote.
Hungary and Turkey remain the only two NATO member nations who have yet to ratify Sweden’s NATO application. All 31 member countries must unanimously vote to ratify the ascension protocols in order for Sweden to join the military alliance.
🇫🇮 🇺🇦
Four ambulances and a fire engine have been donated to Ukraine from four Finnish regions.
Finland’s Interior Minister Mari Rantanen:
"Assistance for rescue services makes up about 20% of all the donations Finland has sent Ukraine through the EU’s Civil Protection Mechanism.”
Rantanen says that rescue services in Ukraine operate in extremely challenging conditions and they need all the help they can get.
"In preparing for the winter, Ukraine has stated that its priorities include support for the energy sector; heaters; necessities such as winter clothes, winter tents, blankets and pillows for people displaced inside the country; and supplies for maintaining road infrastructure, such as salt. Donations through humanitarian organizations are the most effective way for private people to help.”
🇩🇰 🇺🇦
Danish Minister of Defense Troels Lund Poulsen visited Ukraine this week. On Tuesday, Poulsen arrived in Kyiv and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“Ukraine greatly appreciates Denmark's support, which has been strong since the first days of the war. We discussed further steps to strengthen our air capacity and air defense.”
Denmark has sent 12 weapons shipments to Ukraine so far. It is also playing a leading role in the international coalition to donate F-16s to Ukraine and get Ukrainian pilots trained on flying the more modern fighter jet.
🇳🇴/ 🇷🇺
Tensions were running high in the Norwegian town of Kirkenes, which sits close to the Russian border in the country’s far north. October 25th was the 79th anniversary of the Red Army’s liberation of the city from Nazi occupation during World War II. The Barents Observer reports that Russian diplomats were asked to stay away from the ceremony this year due to the war in Ukraine. However, Russian Diplomat Nikolai Konygin showed up anyway along with an entourage. He then laid a wreath in Russian colours at the monument choosing to place it over top of the town’s wreath, which happened to be Ukrainian blue and yellow. Afterward, members of his entourage got physical with reporters who were trying to ask questions.
Danish Cinderella
Someone in Denmark is looking for their fairly tale ending. Around 200 young people from all over Denmark were chosen to attend Prince Christian’s 18th birthday party in the royal residence in Copenhagen. After the party ended and the clean-up began a single stiletto was found seemingly deliberately left behind.
There is no word yet if the young Prince will begin a search across the land to find the other stiletto and the young lady whose foot fits.