The Evening Report - Oct 12

Pipeline sabotage suspicions grow. COVID rising in Denmark.

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About 120 Danish citizens including over 60 efterskole students who had been stuck in Israel landed at the airport in Billund on Tuesday night. The students, their teachers, and other Danes were evacuated over the border into Jordan and then flown home from there. Relieved parents and crisis counselors met the young kids as they arrived. The evacuation was arranged by the insurance provider that underwrote the trip.

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For other Danish citizens still stuck in Israel and Palestine, Denmark’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs says evacuations will begin on Friday at the earliest. There are about 1,200 Danes registered as being in Israel and another 90 in Palestine. For those who are trying to get out, finding a flight has been near impossible and that has prompted the ministry to take its own steps in order to bring them safely home.

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Plans to evacuate Danish citizens from Israel hit a little snag on Thursday. On Thursday afternoon a C-130 Hercules aircraft that had just taken off from Denmark to help with the evacuation effort had ti return to the airport due to a technical issue with the aircraft. The Danish Armed Forces said later in the day the issue had been sorted out and the plane was once again winging its way to the Middle East to help with evacuation efforts, which should start Friday morning.

🇸🇪 🇩🇰

Both Sweden and Denmark have pressed pause on all remaining development funding for Palestine in the aftermath of the Hamas attack on Israel.

In Denmark’s case, some 72 million Danish kroner has yet to be distributed this year and it will remain frozen for the time being. The Danish government is also launching a thorough review of all funding to Palestinian civil organizations, infrastructure, and agricultural projects to ensure none of those funding dollars are finding their way to Hamas.

🇪🇺 🇮🇱

International laws still apply. That is the message to Israel from the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs. Joseph Borrell says Israel absolutely has the right to defend itself but some of its actions in retaliation to the attack by Hamas terrorists are contrary to international law.

“Some of their actions, and the UN has already said so, such as cutting off water supply, electricity and food to a lot of civilians, are against international law. It is a critical moment when the reaction to the barbaric attack by Hamas provokes a situation where we must remember that the right to defend oneself must take place within international law.”

🇨🇦

The evacuation of Canadian citizens out of Israel has begun. The first evacuation flight with about 130 people onboard left Tel Aviv on Thursday afternoon.

🍃Environment & Energy⚡️

🇮🇱🇪🇺

More upward pressure on European energy prices. As tensions mount in the Middle East, Israel has suspended production at the Tamar gas field. The gas field is an important energy source for households and for industry. Gas from the Tamar field flowed to Egypt and Jordan, which are heavily dependent on it for energy but both have also supported the Palestine cause and the Hamas terrorist group.

Israel has also announced it will now seek alternative fuel sources to meet its own needs and that has driven up gas prices for the European Union.

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Finnish Intelligence said on Thursday that it cannot rule out the possibility of a “state actor” being involved in the damage to the Balticconnector pipeline. Finnish Security Intelligence Service Director Antti Pelttari made the comment to reporters at this week’s NATO meetings.

"Involvement of a state actor in this job cannot be ruled out. Who is behind this is a matter for the preliminary investigation. We do not comment on it in more detail.”

Reuters is reporting that “external marks” were found on the seabed beside the damaged section of the pipeline. It also cites a chief investigator for saying that the damage may have been caused by mechanical force and not necessarily an explosion. Vessel traffic near the area is being reviewed.

The pipeline damage and subsequent developments have also helped send natural gas prices higher.

🇳🇴 🇫🇮 🇪🇪

Adding to the unfolding drama a Norwegian seismic monitoring agency has detected activity near the site where the Balticconnector pipeline was damaged. Norsar says its signals indicate a possible explosion at 1:20 a.m. Finnish local time last Sunday morning.

“We are unable to determine if the event was caused by a sudden release of gas under high pressure, due to rupturing of the pipeline, or from the detonation of an explosive.”

It says the event was located about 40 kilometers north of Paldiski, Estonia close to where the Nord Stream 1 pipeline crosses the Baltic Connector. Norway says the event registered as a 1 on the Richter scale, which is much lower than the explosions that ripped apart the Nord Stream pipelines just over a year ago.

“We are still estimating what this means in terms of an explosive yield but we are confident that it is equivalent to less than 100 kg TNT. The sudden release of pressure on the pipeline contributes to this size estimate and there are many unknowns in this estimation.”

🇫🇮 🇪🇪

Finnish and Estonian authorities are working to establish a joint investigation into the pipeline rupture. According to a press release from Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation it is working to set up a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) with its Estonian counterpart in order to ensure a coordinated investigation and a smooth flow of shared information. The NBI said it is making progress on identifying and tracking vessels that were in the area when the pipeline was damaged. It also added that at the moment sea conditions are pretty rough and that is proving challenging the ability to examine the pipeline and sea floor around it.

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Finnish news site Helsingin Sanomat is reporting that a Russian cargo vessel was near the site of the damaged pipeline from Friday evening until almost midnight on Sunday. Citing information from a ship tracking site it followed the movements of SGV Flot on its journey from St. Petersburg to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.

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The potential for sabotage of the Baltic gas pipeline has sent the price level for electricity futures upward in Finland. Electricity futures had been on a downward trend but according to the electricity price comparison online watchdog Halvinsähkösopimus.fi prices in the last week have shot up by 20%.

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“Deeply worrying.” That is how Denmark’s Foreign Affairs Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen is describing suspicions that the Balticconnector pipeline and an adjacent data cable were possibly sabotaged. Rasmussen addressed the issue coming out of a meeting of European Union Foreign Affairs Ministers.

“It shows the vulnerability of modern infrastructure. It points in the direction that someone has been up to something. Not anyone in Europe. And neither is anyone that Europe is helping at the moment. And then the arrow starts pointing to very few places. But I can't stand just passing on loose assumptions.”

🇫🇮 🇪🇪

It is looking like Finland will be without one of its main natural gas pipelines for the entire coming winter. Gasgrid Finland, the operator of the Balticconnector gas pipeline, says its initial estimate is that it will take at least five months to repair the pipeline and bring it back online.

“Therefore, the earliest possible commissioning date of the Balticconnector -pipeline would be at the beginning of April 2024.”

The pipeline was shut down early last Sunday morning when it suddenly lost pressure. Since then Finnish and Estonian authorities have gone public with fears the pipeline damage was caused by “the results of external activity.”

Gasgrid continues to emphasize that Finland’s supply of natural gas “is secured” even with the main gas pipeline out of commission for the coming winter. It says the Inkoo LNG terminal has the capacity to cover Finland’s natural gas needs over the cold winter months ahead.

🇫🇷🇪🇺 🇶🇦

The European Union’s goal of weening itself entirely off of fossil fuels anytime soon has taken a big hit. French company Total Energies has signed a 27-year LNG supply agreement with Qatar Energy. This marks the longest and largest energy deal that Qatar has signed with any European energy agency yet. The deal will see Qatar supply 3.5 million tonnes of LNG to France over a 27-year term starting in 2026. This will mean LNG will continue to play an important role in European energy supplies into 2053.

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Prices are going up for houses using gas boilers in Denmark. As more and more homes transition away from using gas as a heating source costs are rising for those who remain. Danish gas company Evida has already sent a letter to its customers announcing a price increase that amounts to just over 600 Danish kroner (about $116 Cdn) for a home using an average amount of gas. Utility experts say that prices will continue to rise as the number of homes using gas continues to dwindle.

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It is approaching the middle of October and temperature records continue to fall in Denmark. The Danish Meteorological Institute says that overnight temperatures from October 10th to 11th in parts of the country were the warmest since records began to be kept 149 years ago. Overnight temperatures never dipped below 15 degrees in Thy and on the island of Samsø. In Billund, overnight temperatures never dipped below 15.6 degrees setting another October heat record.

The institute says that the national average overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday this week was 15.8 degrees, which is more than three degrees higher than the normal minimum overnight temperature for both July and August.

The weather agency says a low-pressure system over the Norwegian Sea helped pump super-hot air from North Africa and the Canary Islands into the Nordics.

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Several Danish mayors are demanding more concrete action from the government after a report from Aarhus University found that inland waters in Denmark are suffering from the worst oxygen depletion in decades. The report found a huge area of ocean waters between Denmark and Sweden flowing down and around the island of Fyn are so lacking in oxygen that fish are fleeing and invertebrates are dying out entirely.

Mayors from cities like Fredericia and Sønderborg want the government to expropriate farmlands next to waterways, wetlands, and bogs, to ensure nitrogen from agricultural activity doesn’t seep into the waterways. Runoff for agricultural lands and overflow of matures into waterways can create aquatic dead zones such as is happening in the Kattegat and in the big and little belts.

The Danish government has agreements and processes in place to reduce agricultural pollution in waterways and to expropriate low-lying farmlands. However the mayors say that the agreements lack any enforcement teeth and the expropriation process is much too slow taking up to seven years. The goal is to expropriate 100,000 hectares of low-lying farmland, of which just 187 hectares have gone through the lengthy process. Denmark has also set the goal of reducing nitrogen leakage into waterways by 10,800 tonnes by 2027. Today there is an estimated 55,000 tonnes of agricultural nitrogen pollution flowing into coastal waters.

The association representing Danish farmers, Landbrug & Fødeverer, is opposed to any sudden move to expropriate farmland. It says there is a process and yes it is moving much too slowly but that isn’t the farmer’s fault.

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🦠COVID🦠

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COVID activity as detected in Denmark’s wastewater surveillance program (blue line) increased again last week. The average over the last three weeks also shows an increasing amount of coronavirus activity across the country.

COVID hospitalizations (green line) seem to have hit a plateau.

The Statens Serum Institute is ramping up its surveillance of respiratory infections as we near the winter season and the anticipated arrival of COVID, RS virus, and influenza waves. The SSI says so far both influenza and RS virus activity is pretty minimal with no impending wave evident for either virus as of yet.

It is a different story with COVID. The institute says the number of cases, an unreliable metric, is increasing slightly.

COVID hospitalizations have also been rising in Denmark but the SSI says overall numbers are “at a low level” compared with what we have seen previously when the pandemic was at its peak. Seniors, especially those 80 years old and older make up the largest number of new infection-related hospitalizations.

The institute says the number of BA.2.86 infections have stagnated in recent weeks and account for about 6% of what little testing and sequencing is being done. The three dominant variants at the moment in Denmark are EG.5.1, XBB.1.9, and XBB.1.16.

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COVID hospitalizations in Sweden (331) have shot back upward (+164) while the number of severely infected people in an ICU (11) is unchanged week to week.

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The COVID situation remains stable in Norway. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health says it is not seeing any concerning trends across any of its coronavirus indicators. It says there have been 427 infection-related admissions in the last two weeks and just 10 new intensive care patients. In the last 14 days, the virus has claimed 35 more lives in Norway.

The recombinant XBB variants remain dominant in Norway, especially the EG.5.1.X strain. The first two BA.2.75 infections were recorded a few weeks ago and wastewater surveillance around the country is seeing increasing activity of the new strain,

The NIPH says so far there have been no signs of any potential surge for either influenza or RS virus infection numbers. It says seasonal flu infections have been “sporadic.” There were no new influenza-related hospitalizations last week. Although it warns the traditional beginning of the annual flu season usually happens right around mid-October.

The institute says its fall and winter vaccination campaign is well underway with 1.05 million flu shots administered so far through the public program and another 115,000 influenza vaccinations done in private clinics. As of October 8, 3.3% of vulnerable seniors in Norway have had a COVID booster dose.

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Europe’s airline industry is still recovering from the COVID pandemic when the global airline industry essentially shut down. According to the EU statistics agency EuroStat there were 605,806 commercial flights in the EU last month. That is 7.9% more air travel compared to September of 2022 but still 8.9% lower than September 2019 before the coronavirus arrived. EuroStat says the same trend holds true for air travel numbers in June through August.

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COVID hospitalizations continue to climb in England. According to the COVID Actuaries Response Group infection-related hospital admissions were up 12% week to week across England. The increases were seen across every region.

Intensive care occupancy also increased by 14%.

The reinfection rate, or R0, has dipped slightly to 1.07.

🇨🇦

The COVID situation in Canada continues to deteriorate. Infection-related hospitalizations, cases, and deaths all continue to increase.

In its latest weekly update, the Public Health Agency of Canada says coronavirus has claimed another 110 lives pushing the total to-date virus death toll to 54,100.

The positivity percentage, which has been climbing since July, continues to increase and now sits at 19.6%.

COVID activity across most of the country is classified as being moderate (level 2) but Ontario has been upgraded to high (level 3), the second highest degree of infection spread in the four-tiered virus activity warning system.

Infection-related hospitalizations have jumped with the total number of beds in use by infected patients rising to 3,610 as of the week ending October 3rd. That is 762 more patients than there were the week before. The majority of those increases were in general admissions, which rose from 2,757 to 3,493 from week to week. Intensive care numbers (117) also increased (+26) as did the number of severely infected people needing a ventilator, which crept up by 8 to 66 in total.

The majority of those dying or being hospitalized due to a COVID infection continue to be vulnerable seniors.

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🇺🇦/🇷🇺 War

🇩🇰 🇳🇱 🇺🇸

Denmark is taking a leading role in an international coalition working towards a wholesale modernization of Ukraine’s Air Force. Alongside the United States and the Netherlands, Denmark is working with other countries in a leadership role to not only train Ukrainian pilots and work to donate F-16 fighter jets but also to build infrastructure and maintenance facilities for the jets in Ukraine. Eventually, the coalition will begin to look at other elements needed to build a fully capable Ukrainian Air Force.

Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen:

“I am really proud to be able to say that going forward, Denmark, together with our very close allies the USA and the Netherlands, will lead the support for Ukraine's building of its future air force. It is a natural extension of the leading role Denmark already has in relation to the military support for Ukraine and especially in relation to the donation of F-16 fighter jets.”

The F-16 coalition is working as a sub-group within the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group that is working on military support across the different disciplines of air defense, armour, artillery, air force, navy, and IT.

"It underlines our leading role in the international F-16 training coalition and the significance of the decision to donate the fighter jets to Ukraine. At the same time, it is recognition of the task that the Danish Armed Forces, both nationally and internationally, have solved in order to establish capacity for Ukraine to have F-16 combat aircraft in an extremely short timeline.”

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Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is calling for NATO countries to donate more F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Frederiksen says more jets are needed and they must get to Ukraine much faster. Denmark will donate 19 F-16s.

Frederiksen spoke to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Copenhagen this week.

“We are working to expand and deepen the coalition so that Ukraine gets more F-16 aircraft. As long as Ukraine is ready to fight the war for our freedom, then war fatigue must not arise here in the transatlantic cooperation.”

🇧🇪 🇺🇦

Belgium has announced it will donate an unspecified number of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. But the warplanes won’t be arriving this year, they won’t be arriving next year, but rather the year after that. Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder told the Belgian radio station RTL that the F-16s would be handed to Ukraine in 2025. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is visiting Belgium today. Denmark and the Netherlands are the other two countries that have so far agreed to donate F-16s to Ukraine. Training of Ukrainian pilots on the more modern fighter jets is ongoing in a number of countries.

🇩🇰 🇺🇦

Denmark is kicking in another 1.1 billion Danish kroner (about $212 million Cdn) to an international fund (IFU) that is used to procure weapons, ammunition, and vehicles for Ukraine. The latest financial injection will help fund the maintenance of Ukrainian military vehicles, mine-clearing equipment, and for the transport of tanks.

Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen:

"It is crucial in Ukraine's fight against Russia that we continue to contribute with both military donations and other help. Ukraine requires both ammunition and help with the maintenance of equipment that is worn out by the long war. That is why I am pleased that we together with the other countries in the IFU can help the Ukrainians with, among other things, equipment for the maintenance of weapon systems on the battlefield.”

The monies will also help procure equipment to help breach Russian defensive lines including mine clearing equipment, mobile bridges, and other equipment.

Alongside Denmark, Great Britain, Norway, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Sweden, and Iceland also contribute to the fund. The fund currently has almost a billion euro in it (about $1.2 billion Cdn) to provide long-term support for Ukraine’s war against Russia.

🇳🇴 🇩🇰 🇸🇪

Norway, Denmark, and Sweden are joining forces in a joint effort to procure more ammunition for Ukraine in what is being called the Nordic Ammunition Initiative.

Norway’s Minister of Defense Bjørn Arild Gram:

“This initiative is very important for two reasons. Firstly, it is an important contribution to the support of Ukraine's defensive struggle. Secondly, this is a good example of Nordic cooperation in the area of ​​material and industry, an area in which it has so far proved challenging to find any success in. The need for and consumption of artillery ammunition in Ukraine is very high. In line with the objective of donating through coordinated Nordic procurement, we wanted to join forces with Sweden and Denmark on procurement to increase and streamline donations to Ukraine and at the same time contribute to strengthening the Nordic industrial base and domestic ammunition security of supply.”

The three countries will pitch in a combined 600 million Norwegian kroner (about $75 million Cdn) for ammunition contracts. The first shipments of ammunition should begin to arrive in Ukraine next year

Gram says the ammunition procurement for Ukraine will not affect the flow of new ammunition into the Nordic countries as they work to replenish domestic stockpiles.

The ammunition supply chain has been of critical concern lately as NATO officials begin to warn that the non-stop demands of Ukrainian forces have nearly drained Western ammunition supplies. Denmark has recently begun the process to begin domestic ammunition production for the first time in years.

🇩🇰 🇨🇿 🇺🇦

Denmark and the Czech Republic are working together on a major joint package of tanks, ammunition, and other military equipment for Ukraine.

Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen:

“This is a substantial donation of equipment for which there is great demand in Ukraine, and which has been made possible on the basis of exemplary cooperation between Denmark and the Czech Republic.”

The first part of the donation will be straight off the line weapons and equipment from the production facilities and warehouses of Czech defense companies.

It will include:

• Approximately 50 infantry fighting vehicles and tanks

• 2,500 pistols

• 7,000 rifles

• 500 light machine guns

• 500 sniper rifles

• Artillery ammunition

• Equipment for Electronic Warfare and Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance

The second half of the donation will be made up of refurbished weapons.

• 500 heavy machine guns

• 280 nozzle guns

• 7,000 anti-tank weapons

• 10,000 hand grenades

• 60 mortar systems.

• And a “significant number” of anti-drone systems.

Czech Deputy Defense Minister Daniel Blažkovec points out that this kind of cooperation means that military support for Ukraine can continue not only in the coming months but also in 2024 and in the long run, if necessary.

🇫🇮 🇺🇦

Finland is sending its 19th weapons package to Ukraine. As is the Finnish custom in these matters it won’t reveal any details of what it is sending to Ukraine or when it might arrive. The only thing we know is that it is worth about €95 million.

Minister of Defence Antti Häkkänen:

“The outcome of the war in Ukraine will determine the security order of Europe and Finland far into the future. This is why we will continue our determined support for Ukraine together with our allies.”

🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺

Russia remains a direct threat to Finland. That is the assessment of the Finnish Intelligence Agency SUPO in its latest threat assessment report.

SUPO Chief Antti Pelttari addressed reporters on Thursday.

“The threat from Russia has not disappeared by any means. Russia can direct countermeasures against Finland. On the other hand, NATO membership raises the threshold for attack. Russia is currently still focused on the war in Ukraine and on easing international isolation, but this does not mean that the threat of Russian intelligence and influence in Finland has disappeared. The accession of Finland to NATO, the continuation of the war in Ukraine, the deepening confrontation between Western countries and Russia and increasing sanctions may strengthen Russian countermeasures against Finland.”

The threat assessment cites Finland’s energy and marine infrastructure as prime targets for Russia but adds the country is well prepared to counter them. It also warns of continued efforts by Russia to sow discord and division by using misinformation and propaganda peddling.

🇧🇪 🇺🇦

Belgium has agreed to transfer €1.7 billion worth of taxes on income from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. This is according to former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk who now works with the Kyiv Security Forum. He says there is some €180 billion worth of frozen Russian assets in Belgium alone.

“The confiscation of more than €300 billion of Russian assets frozen around the world is a matter that the Kyiv Security Forum team has been devoting a lot of attention to. I consider this task to be one of Ukraine's strategic priorities, as I have repeatedly stated publicly and privately. Russia's frozen assets do not cover all of Ukraine's losses. But their transfer to our state and affected citizens is a fundamentally important contribution to compensating for the aggressor's crimes.”

🇸🇪 🇹🇷

The NATO drama between Turkey and Sweden continues. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday that Turkey has sent a clear signal that it will stand by its agreement reached last summer in Vilnius and will ratify Sweden’s application to join the alliance.

“I expect that Turkey's parliament will now quickly implement the ratification of Sweden.”

29 of the 31 member states have ratified Sweden’s NATO application with only Turkey and Hungary continuing to drag their heels. Sweden needs a yes from all 31 member nations to join the alliance.

IOC 🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺

The International Olympic Committee announced Thursday that it has suspended the Russian Olympic Committee with immediate effect. The IOC says the Russian committee’s attempts to include occupied Ukrainian lands were a flagrant violation of the rules. The suspension means that all financial support to ROC ends and the committee no longer has the right to reference or associate itself in any way with the Olympics. The IOC says it also now has the right to reassess the participation of Russian athletes, even under a neutral flag, in next year’s summer games in Paris.

The Danish Sports Federation is welcoming the news.

DIF Chair Hans Natorp:

“Since the beginning of the war, we in the DIF have believed that this was the only right thing to do and that the IOC is now reacting with this important step is, of course, proof that Russia has now gone too far, even in the sporting world.”

🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺 ⚽️

The Union of European Football Associations has reversed course and will no longer allow Russian U17 national teams to return to European football tournaments. The decision to open the door to Russian teams was met with widespread criticism with many European countries publicly refusing to play against any team from Russia. At a meeting this week the UEFA pulled a U-turn and dropped its attempt to open the door to Russian football teams. However, the football association isn’t providing any clear information on the reasoning for making its initial decision just a few weeks ago or exactly why it has suddenly changed its mind.