The Evening Report - Nov 4
Europe is once again at the epicenter of the COVID pandemic.
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“We are at another critical point in the pandemic resurgence. The current pace of transmission across the 53 countries of the European Region, is of grave concern. COVID cases are once again approaching record levels.”
WHO’s Regional Director Hans Kluge sounded the alarm about the situation in Europe in a press conference today.
“Over the past four weeks Europe has seen a greater than 55% increase in COVID cases. We are once again at the epicenter. We see increasing trends across all age groups; of most concern is the rapid increase in older age groups since week 38. This is translating into people with more severe disease and death. Currently, 75% of all fatal cases are in people aged 65 and older. Hospital admission rates due to COVID more than doubled in one week, based on WHO Europe’s latest data. According to one reliable projection, if we stay on this trajectory we could see another half a million COVID deaths in Europe and Central Asia by February 1st next year.”
Kluge says insufficient vaccination coverage and the relaxation of public health and social measures are directly to blame.
“This variation in vaccination coverage is reflective of immunization service delivery as well as a lack of trust or complacency among some population groups. It is imperative that authorities invest all efforts to accelerate the pace of vaccinations.”
He says in Europe and Central Asia on average only 47% of people are fully vaccinated. While eight countries have exceeded 70% vaccination coverage, two have a rate below 10%. The WHO points to the Baltic countries, the Balkans, and central and Eastern Europe as having the lowest vaccination coverage and the highest hospitalizations. Hospitalization rates in low vaccination counties are markedly higher and rising more quickly than those with higher uptake.
Kluge says life-saving vaccines are drastically reducing COVID deaths.
“Most people hospitalized and dying from COVID today are not fully vaccinated. The vaccines are indeed doing what they are intended to do in preventing serious illness and deaths.”
But, he adds, vaccines are most powerful when used alongside other tools, like COVID restrictions.
“Reliable projections show if we achieved 95% universal mask use, we could save 188,000 lives of the half a million lives we may lose before February 2022. Testing, contact tracing, ventilation in indoor spaces, and physical distancing, remain part of our arsenal of defenses next to the rapid, fair and generalized uptake of vaccines by everyone eligible. These are tried and tested measures that enable lives to continue, while controlling the virus and avoiding widespread, damaging lockdowns. We must change our tactics, from reacting to surges of COVID, to preventing them from happening in the first place.”
Kluge says we are at a critical point, as he urges every health authority in Europe to carefully re-consider, any easing or lifting of measures at this moment.
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An influential voice in Denmark is now calling for the coronapas to be reinstated. Søren Brostrøm, the Director General of the Danish National Health Board, says it is his agency’s assessment that further measures need to be taken to wrestle down the infection curve.
Brostrøm spoke to DR:
“Based on our health professional assessment, a reintroduction of the corona passport would be an effective tool for breaking chains of infection, while allowing us to keep society open.”
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Denmark’s pandemic situation is getting worse as today it recorded the highest number of new daily infections of the entire year. There were 2,598 COVID infections, the most since December 30, and five more coronavirus deaths today.
Yesterday saw 180,753 total corona tests being administered, of which 131,164 were PCR tests equaling a positivity percentage of 1.98%.
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Denmark’s Health Ministry says the number of infections across the country jumped by 37% last week compared to the week before. It says the increasing epidemic is being felt most sharply in Metro Copenhagen. The weekly positivity percentage has also inched upward from 2.2% to 2.3% from one week to the next. This is concerning because testing has also increased.
Hospitalizations are also rising. Last week the ministry says there were 301 new COVID patients admitted to hospital, an increase from the 245 the week before. The increase is especially being seen among those 60 to 79 years old.
One potential bit of good news is that breakthrough infections among fully vaccinated seniors 80 years old and older, which had been rising, are now dropping. The Sunhedsministeriet suggest that this shows that booster doses are working.
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COVID hospitalizations (246) have dropped (-18) while the number of infected people in an ICU (31) edged upward (+1) and of those the number on a ventilator (16) also rose slightly (+1).
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The Staten Serum Institut has updated statistics comparing infection and hospitalization rates among the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. The agency says for those 12 to 15 year olds, the COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people is 520.5 for those who were unvaccinated. That compares to an incidence rate of 37.9 for children who are vaccinated. Another way to look at it is that unvaccinated 12 to 15 year olds have 19 times as many coronavirus cases as those who are vaccinated.
According to the graph below, COVID infections are much higher in every age group under the age of 65.
For older age groups, it notes higher rates of breakthrough infections. It says this is because older people were among the first to get vaccinated and their protection is now waning. This is exacerbated by very elderly seniors who often also have weakened immune systems.
In fact, hospitalization rates for unvaccinated people are also much higher in every age group except for those 80 years old and older. Hospital admissions for those with one dose in that age group are outpacing still very high hospitalization rates among the unvaccinated.
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There is some good news on the vaccination front as there were 2,079 1st doses administered yesterday. That is the first time since early September the number of daily first vaccine shots has exceeded 2,000. Yesterday there were 19,927 total inoculations, most of which were booster shots.
To date, 76.4% of the total population has one vaccine dose and 75.2% have two doses. There have been 354,336 3rd booster shots done covering 6% of the population.
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Maersk has become the first major company in Denmark to introduce a vaccine mandate for its employees. The mandate will come into force within three months. Employees who are not vaccinated cannot come into the office. The requirement will cover all employees in its offices in Denmark and in many other countries as well.
The move has drawn the ire of Ingeniørforeningen IDA, the Danish engineering association, who say the mandate is not fair.
Association Chair Thomas Damkjær Petersen spoke to Ritzau:
“It is not reasonable to require that you are vaccinated to get to work. It is reasonable to demand that you are healthy. If you have coronavirus symptoms, then you must stay home and get tested.”
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Rising infections numbers are starting to have an impact on Denmark’s local government election campaign, at least in one kommune. Brønderslev Municipality usually operates what it calls election cafes, a place to grab a coffee and chat with the candidates. It has canceled the election cafes due to the COVID situation.
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Sweden has added 844 infections and another seven corona deaths in the last day.
COVID vaccinations:
Population 16 years old and older - 7,261,439 1st doses (85%) and 6,927,245 2nd doses (81.1%) have been administered.
Population 12 to 15 years old - 172,806 doses done (35%)
3rd doses - 213,195 people have had a booster dose (34.7%)
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Swedish health authorities are trying to better understand COVID antibody levels in seniors over the age of 70. The Västra Götaland region in collaboration with the Swedish Public Health Agency and the University of Gothenburg is doing a study by testing blood samples from thousands of volunteers. This is a follow-up study to one conducted back in March. The second study is trying to assess the impact of Sweden’s vaccination effort. Study results will be reported in the coming months.
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Sweden will begin a massive influenza vaccination effort on November 9. High priority and at risk groups will get first dibs. That would include seniors, those with chronic disease, weakened immune systems, and pregnant women. The flu shot is free and can be administered at the same time as a COVID vaccination.
Health and senior care staff are next in line for the flu shot and should begin getting the jab on November 22. Flu shots for the general public begin on December 6.
Swedish Public Health Agency Epidemiologist AnnaSara Carnahan:
“It is important that people in high-risk groups receive protection against both seasonal flu and coronavirus because both viruses can cause severe infections. Vaccination is the best way we have to protect these people from serious illness and death.”
The health agency notes that influenza A (H3N2) is already spreading in various European countries. That strain tends to hit seniors very hard. It also warns with the pandemic all but wiping out the last two flu seasons, people will have reduced natural immunity, which could mean the flu season to come will be fierce.
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Finland has registered 740 infections and six more deaths since yesterday’s update as it continues to struggle to contain spreading infections.
COVID hospitalizations (238) are up (+12).
On the vaccination front 4,234,573 1st doses (75.5% of the total population) and 3,893,170 2nd vaccine doses (69.6%) have been administered.
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The Finnish Institute for Public Health has not yet decided one way or another on whether children five to 11 years old should be vaccinated. The European Medicines Agency is reviewing an application from Pfizer/BioNTech seeking approval to use its vaccine on young children. The EMA has not yet made a decision. The institute is preparing a report on the subject, which should be tabled later this month or next. Its recommendation would then go to the government, which would make a final decision.
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Norway has recorded 2,223 infections and one more virus death in the last 24 hours as it continues to see surging numbers.
COVID hospitalizations (171) inched up (+4) ICU numbers (40) also edged upward (+3) and of those the number on a ventilator (19) inched up as well (+2).
So far, 78.05% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have had one vaccine dose and 69.53% have had both doses.
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Germany is seeing a serious surge in coronavirus infections reporting 26,466 new cases and 184 more deaths in the last day.
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German Health Minister Jens Spahn says Germany is experiencing a “massive” pandemic of the unvaccinated. Spahn is calling for strict measures to bring down soaring infection numbers.
“In some regions in Germany, intensive care beds are running out again. The pandemic is not over. There would be significantly fewer COVID patients in intensive care units if everyone got vaccinated.”
Spahn is calling for people to double down on the basics wear a mask, social distancing, and keeping indoor spaces well ventilated. He also wants restaurants and bars to become very strict on checking people’s vaccine passports. In hard hit areas of the country, he would also like to see those who are not vaccinated lose their access to bars, nightclubs, and other venues.
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Here is the latest COVID risk assessment map of Europe from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. Near normal green areas have almost disappeared and now be cautious orange areas are also losing ground to shades of high risk red.
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The United Kingdom has become the first country in the world to approve a COVID treatment drug, molnupiravir, made by the pharmaceutical company Merck. The British Medicines Agency gave the green-light to use the pill today. Molnupiravir must be used in a tight window between getting infected but before the case becomes severe. Clinical trial found it reduced symptoms and hospitalizations among COVID patients. Nearly half a million doses of the drug will be available in the UK by mid-November.
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Canada reported 2,221 COVID infections and suffered another 39 pandemic deaths yesterday.
The Canadian vaccination effort has so far administered 29,802,079 1st vaccine doses (77.94% of the total population) while 28,368,661 people (74.19%) are fully vaccinated. There have been 480,119 booster shots done so far.
In Ontario today there were 438 infections, of which 279 were among people who were unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. There are 234 people in hospital and 177 of those have either one dose or no doses at all. Of the additional 130 in an ICU, that number is 115.
Quebec reported another 588 COVID cases today.
In Atlantic Canada, New Brunswick has 39 new cases. Nova Scotia logged 50 new infections today. Newfoundland and Labrador is dealing with a cyber attack and has not yet reported today.
Manitoba saw 154 new infections today.
There were 188 infections in Saskatchewan today.
Yesterday, Alberta recorded 487 new corona cases and 14 more deaths.
B.C. registered 430 infections and another six deaths yesterday.