The Evening Report - Nov 23

Finland Border Closures. Critical Global Warming Threshold Briefly Passed.

🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War

🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺

As of Friday morning, just a single Finnish border crossing remains open along its eastern border with Russia. Finland closed four border checkpoints along the southeastern border last weekend due to increasing numbers of illegal immigrants arriving at the Finnish border with the help of Russian authorities. Within 48 hours immigrants simply moved to the next still open crossings including immigrants arriving for the first time ever at a Finnish border checkpoint in the Arctic Circle. In response, the Finnish government then closed three more checkpoints along its eastern border leaving a single border crossing, Raja-Jooseppi, open. There are only two other crossings still remaining open with both being in the far north..

As of 8:00 p.m. Thursday night, immigrants continued to arrive at the soon-to-be-closed border crossings

Finnish Border Guard Head of International Relations Matti Pitkäniitty:

“Today 58 asylum seekers arrived at Salla BCP in Lapland and 34 to Vartius BCP in Kainuu. At midnight these BCP’s will be closed. Only Raja-Jooseppi BCP will be open according to its opening hours.”

Interior Minister Mari Rantanen:

“The government decided to leave only the Raja-Jooseppi border crossing open along the eastern border. We are strongly committed to protecting national security. If necessary, we will make more decisions if the movement of third-country nationals to the border continues.”

And it looks like the immigrant problem will in fact continue, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told parliament on Thursday that there are signs that the situation on the eastern border is going to get worse. He told parliamentarians that immigrants are already being transported by Russian authorities towards border crossing points further north.

With Russia weaponizing immigration along the Finnish border just as it did at the Polish border with Belarus the European Union is also wading in. The EU border agency Frontex has dispatched 50 border guards along with support staff to Finland.

🇺🇦 🇪🇺

Ukraine’s Minister of Defense hailed the continued support of European countries as he left the 17th meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine this week. Rustem Umierov said a new coalition of 20 countries led by France and Germany has come together to bolster the number of ground-based air defense systems being sent to Ukraine. Umierov also welcomed a new €2 billion military aid package for Ukraine from the Netherlands. He also said weaponry from Germany’s latest military package is due to arrive by mid-December. Germany is sending Ukraine IRIS-T air defense systems, guided missiles, 8,000 anti-tank mines, a Patriot air defense system, and more 155mm ammunition.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also welcomed the results of the meeting,

“First and foremost, every system and missile provided to Ukraine saves lives. Second, every major region and city fully covered by a reliable air shield means that more Ukrainians, potentially millions, can return from abroad. This will boost Ukraine's economy, allow us to reduce the budgetary gap, and reduce our reliance on international financial assistance. Third, the stronger our air defense, the greater Ukraine's success in the Black Sea, the more maritime exports, the better protection of freedom of navigation, and the greater stability. This will allow us to deliver hundreds of thousands of additional tons of food via a more secure maritime export corridor and counter the global food crisis. We are confident, however, that by providing additional air defense capabilities, our partners are making the best strategic security investment and saving a significant amount of resources in the long run.”

Zelenskyy says Ukraine has so far liberated more than half the land Russia occupied in its initial invasion while chasing the Russian navy from the Black Sea. He said 2024 must become the year when Ukraine “throws Russia out of its skies.”

🇩🇰🇺🇸🇳🇱/ 🇺🇦

Denmark, the United States, and the Netherlands are looking to grow the F-16 coalition. The three countries are taking the lead in an effort to rebuild the Ukrainian Air Force with more modern F-16s by getting more donations of fighter jets while also getting Ukrainian pilots and support staff trained on F-16s. At this week’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting the three nations invited more countries to join the coalition.

🇩🇰 🇳🇴 🇸🇪 🇫🇮 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 🇪🇪

Defense Ministers from the Nordic nations joined their counterparts from the Baltic states this week to discuss how to increase security across the Baltic Sea. The discussions come after the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines and the recent damage to the Baltic Connector pipeline and two adjacent data cables all on the Baltic Sea floor.

🇳🇴 🇺🇦

Norway is donating five heavy-duty military ambulances to Ukraine. The donated vehicles are Volvo 9700 Superior buses that have been converted into military-grade ambulance vehicles. One bus has already been completed and is on its way to Ukraine and four more will follow in the next month or so. The buses feature three intensive care beds and four other beds for medical treatment. They also come equipped with a military workstation allowing onboard staff advanced communication options.

Not done there, Norway is also loading the buses up with all sorts of medical gear and equipment. It will also foot the bill for highly specialized air ambulance and intensive care personnel from Oslo University Hospital to train Ukrainian medics.

The total donation is valued at about 50 million Norwegian kroner (about $6.3 million Cdn).

🇪🇺🇺🇸/ 🇷🇺

Efforts by the European Union and the United States to come down hard on those helping Russia evade sanctions on its oil and gas exports appear to be having an impact. Three major Greek shipping firms have stopped transporting Russian oil in the last few weeks. While certainly a blow for Russia, experts say Moscow still has enough shipping assets to keep trying to do an end run around sanctions.

🇩🇰 🇺🇦

A surprisingly large number of Ukrainians who fled to Denmark when Russia invaded plan on staying put in their new home even when the war comes to an end. That is the funding of a survey from the University of Copenhagen. The survey found that 49.5% of Ukrainian refugees plan to continue calling Denmark home even if the war ends. The survey does not provide any insight as to why so many Ukrainians would choose to stay.

18,389 Ukrainians were sent the questionnaire over the course of a year with 6,993 choosing to respond to the survey.

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🦠COVID🦠

🇩🇰

COVID activity (blue line) has gone from weeks of seeing a “strong increase” to being “stable” as of last week according to the latest wastewater surveillance results.

However, infection-related hospitalizations (green line) continue to increase across Denmark.

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So far, 69.9% of those over 65 have had a COVID booster dose. Uptake is a lot higher among really vulnerable seniors in care where 81.4% of residents have been inoculated with the new variant-specific booster dose.

Influenza vaccinations remain a little more popular with 70.8% of seniors over 65 getting a flu shot. Among seniors in care, the vaccination uptake is 81.8%. Where numbers continue to remain lackluster is among children two to six years old where a mere 12.7% have had the special nasal pediatric influenza vaccination.

Vaccinations by age/type

According to the Danish National Health Authority vaccination interest remains strong with about 91,000 appointments booked over the next two weeks. But appointment numbers fall off of a cliff in the four weeks after that.

Denmark’s fall/winter vaccination campaign ends on January 15, and some of the Danish regions have already begun to scale back their vaccination program.

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A new pre-print study from the Danish Statens Serum Institute has found that those getting a new updated COVID vaccine booster dose are much less likely to be hospitalized due to an infection. The study focused on the fall vaccination campaign, which began last month, and concluded that of those in high-risk groups or who are over 65 who received another vaccine dose were 75% less likely to suffer a severe infection resulting in hospitalization or death compared to those who were not vaccinated.

You can read the full study HERE.

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Here comes the RS virus wave. The SSI says RS virus infections have “increased significantly” in the last two weeks.

The institute says the number of influenza ‘A’ strain infections almost doubled from week 44 to week 45 suggesting this winter’s flu season may be off to an early start. However, the agency also notes that in week 46 (last week) there wasn’t an increase in flu activity. So read into that what you will.

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Denmark continues to be in the clutches of a now months-long whooping cough epidemic. Infection numbers have been building since the late spring and show no sign of slowing down yet. There were 1,131 confirmed cases in October alone. Last week another 349 infections were recorded.

🇸🇪

In Sweden, COVID hospitalizations (1,219) dipped week to week (-105) but still remain in territory not seen since January of this year. Intensive care admissions (28) also dropped a little (-5).

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Hospitals in Southern Sweden are under increasing pressure from an influx of COVID patients according to Region Skåne. It says since the beginning of October there has been a “rapid and clear increase” of coronavirus infections but numbers seem to have slowed down a little over the last couple of weeks. The region cautions that with only people being admitted to hospital being tested for COVID their grasp of the actual infection picture is extremely limited.

What it is seeing is an increase in COVID hospital admissions and that is putting an extra burden on hospitals across the region. Thankfully influenza and RS virus cases remain low and haven’t compounded the situation.

Infectious Disease Doctor Eva Melander:

“All in all, the statistics suggest that we have an ongoing spread of COVID in society. This contributes to the fact that many are home sick from work and school and that it can become a strained situation for healthcare. In the current situation, it is therefore important that everyone does what we can to try to keep the spread of infection down.”

The region is urging people to stay home when they are sick. It says people who are sick shouldn’t go to work, or to school, or visit friends and family, and especially shouldn’t visit any older friends and relatives who are in care. Other than that they should practice good hand washing, use hand sanitizer, and make sure to get vaccinated to keep coronavirus and other respiratory infections down as much as possible.

🇳🇴

A COVID infection wave continues to sweep across Norway. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health says cases continue to increase and are expected to continue to rise. The institute is also seeing an uptick in influenza cases leading it to anticipate a full-blown flu epidemic arriving just in time for the holiday season.

The NIPH is urging people who are eligible to get a COVID booster dose and a flu shot as soon as possible. It is also advising hospitals to prepare for a surge of respiratory infection cases.

COVID hospitalizations have been rising for the last couple of weeks with 1,191 new infection-related admissions in just the last two weeks. The institute says intensive care cases still remain low with just six last week and 12 the week before that. Hospitals in Norway also saw a clear increase in COVID outbreaks last week.

The number of coronavirus-related deaths doubled last week with 73 more lives lost after fatalities had hovered around 30 each week for the last little while.

As is the case most everywhere else, the NIPH warns that it is seniors over 75 and those who have not availed themselves of the latest COVID booster dose who are seeing the brunt of hospitalizations and deaths.

On the variant front, the EG.5.1 strain remains dominant in Norway but the institute notes that BA.2.86 cases “have increased noticeably” and now account for about 18% of all positive sequenced test results.

There were 266 influenza cases last week and numbers continue to rise week after week but so far case numbers have yet to reach a level indicating a full-blown epidemic. Flu-related hospitalizations remain low.

The health agency says there is still no sign of an impending RS virus wave with few cases detected.

As is the case among its Nordic neighbours, Norway is seeing a surge in whooping cough infections with outbreaks among infants and young people.

57% of seniors have received a flu shot. On the opposite end of the age spectrum numbers are pretty dismal with 6% of those 17 and under getting an influenza vaccination. Among healthcare workers, uptake is 23% among primary care staff and 42% among specialist care.

On the COVID vaccination front, 43% of seniors have been boosted.

🇫🇮

Finnish health officials are bracing for the holiday season and an expected increase in respiratory infection-related hospital admissions.

Finnish Institute for Health Chief Physician Tuija Leino:

"The overall hospital burden caused by respiratory tract infections is currently normal for this time of year. However, the situation at the end of the year and the timing of the epidemic peaks of coronavirus and other viruses cannot be estimated with any certainty.”

A COVID wave continues to grip Finland and case numbers continue to rise. The institute says the EG.5 variant remains the dominant strain and is driving the current infection wave.

The health agency says there has been no sign yet of any increase in influenza or RS virus infections.

“The majority of hospitalizations due to respiratory infections remain without microbiological confirmation or are caused by a virus other than corona, influenza or RSV.”

That said, the institute says there is an increase in coronavirus-infected seniors. The institute is also warning of the risk posed to vulnerable seniors of multiple respiratory infections swirling around.

"Seniors with underlying health conditions who also belong to the vaccination target groups have a higher risk of being hospitalized due to a respiratory infection than a healthy person of the same age.”

With all sorts of respiratory infections circulating and public coronavirus testing a mere shadow of what it once was the institute is advising that self-testing results should be taken with caution.

Leading Expert Niina Ikonen:

"A negative test result does not say with certainty that it is not a coronavirus infection that has been detected by the test. It is important that if there are symptoms, the disease is treated at home and outside contacts are avoided as much as possible.”

🇵🇱 vs 💉

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer is taking Poland to court alleging it owes the company $1.5 billion for millions of COVID vaccine doses. Poland contends that when Russia invaded Ukraine the subsequent emergency situation put such a demand on Polish finances to deal with Ukrainian refugees, offer medical assistance, and set up reception centers, that the country could break its vaccine obligations. Pfizer obviously does not agree with that assessment and has filed a case against Poland in Brussels.

🇬🇧

COVID hospitalizations continue to fall across England as they decline by another 12% week to week according to the COVID Actuaries Response Group. The declines were seen across all regions. Intensive care occupancy also continues to slide as it fell by another 10%.

The reinfection rate, or R0, remained stable at 0.92. Anything over 1 indicates degrees of a spreading epidemic.

WHO 🦠

The World Health Organization has reclassified the BA.2.86 variant and its sublineages, like JN.1, from being a variant under monitoring to the more serious variants of interest list. It joins three other variants on the list EG.5, XBB.1.5, and XBB.1.6.

WHO COVID Technical Lead Maria Van Kerkhove

“The reason for that is that we have seen a slow and steady increase in its detection around the world. By characterizing it as a variant of interest it helps to promote surveillance for these types of variants around the world. As well as to stimulate research to understand what this virus does in terms of its growth advantage, its immune escape, and any impact on our interventions. For BA.2.86 and its sublineages, including JN.1, we don’t see a change in severity compared to other Omicron sublineages. We still have very few sequences around the world, around 3,000 or so, in terms of what has been reported to us.”

The WHO has also released a new risk assessment for BA.2.86. While it rates the risk of the strain’s growth advantage as being low it notes that over the last four weeks, the global proportion of variant-related infections has grown from 1.8% to 8.9%. The three countries with the highest proportion of BA.2.86 infections are the UK (14.2%), France (13.8%), and Sweden (12%).

The variant’s immune escape risk (its ability to dodge around protection offered by vaccination or previous infection) is rated as moderate. The global health agency says the strain has immune escape roughly in line with other circulating variants although it notes conflicting results in several studies on the subject.

🇨🇦

COVID indicators have stabilized in Canada according to the country’s Public Health Agency. However, it also cautions that the situation varies from province to province.

While PHAC says the number of infection-related deaths decreasing, 120 more lives were lost to the virus in the last week.

The seven-day positivity percentage is 18.2%.

In the week ending November 14, COVID hospitalizations rose slightly. The total number of hospital beds in use by an infected patient increased by 105 to 3,894 beds in use. As has been the case for a long time now the bulk of those increases were in general admissions, which rose 96 to 3,742. But intensive care numbers also crept upward going from 143 to 152 from week to week. There were 14 more severely infected people requiring a ventilator for a total of 152.

PHAC continues to stress that the majority of coronavirus-related admissions “remained highest among the oldest age groups.”

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🍃Environment & Energy⚡️

🇪🇺 🌎

Data from Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that the planet briefly exceeded a critical global warming threshold last weekend. Copernicus data shows that on November 17, the global temperature exceeded 2.07°C above the pre-industrial average. The next day temperatures hit 2.06°C. The pre-industrial average is the average temperature between the years 1850 to 1900 prior to the use of fossil fuels.

Copernicus Climate Change Service Director Carlo Buontempo:

“The ERA5 record now contains two days where global temperatures exceed the pre-industrial level by more than 2°C. That this should happen in the same month that world leaders will gather to take stock of progress towards meeting Paris Agreement commitments at COP28 sends a very clear message, the time for definitive action to tackle climate change is now. While exceeding the 2°C threshold for a number of days does not mean that we have breached the Paris Agreement targets, the more often that we exceed this threshold, the more serious the cumulative effects of these breaches will become.”

According to Copernicus, the global surface air temperature on November 17 was 1.17°C above the average for the 1991-2020 reference period. The agency says this is a pretty strong indication that it will likely become the warmest November on record.

🇪🇺🇩🇰

The clock is ticking on big trucks and buses running on fossil fuel in the European Union. The EU Parliament tightened CO2 requirements this week mandating that automakers must ensure that all new semi-trucks and buses must reduce emissions by 45% by 2030, by 65% by 2035, and then by 90% by 2040.

The Danish Council for a Green Transition hails the move as an avenue to get a lot more zero-emission big rigs and busses on the road

Climate and Transport Advisor Daria Rivin:

“The days of polluting trucks and buses are numbered. Parliament's decision on stricter CO2 requirements for heavy vehicles is a really big step in the right direction, and absolutely crucial to reducing the climate burden from trucks and buses. Many haulers in Denmark and Europe would like to electrify their trucks and buses. At the moment, the selection is limited and the prices high. The stricter CO2 requirements for heavy vehicles mean that more is invested in zero-emission trucks and buses, that they become cheaper faster and that the transition is accelerated."

However, the council is not a big fan of the EU Parliament including palm oil as a biofuel. It calls the decision “crazy.”

“Instead of electrifying the heavy vehicles, Parliament has seriously proposed that a truck that runs on 100% palm oil must also be considered climate neutral. It's completely crazy. It is difficult to see the inclusion of fuels as anything other than an attempt to delay the green transition.”

🇩🇰

The Danish government has created a special parliamentary committee to look at ways to cut red tape and get green energy projects off the ground a whole lot faster. The move is being welcomed by Green Power Denmark.

CEO Kristian Jensen:

“The government puts maximum pressure on the decision-making processes, and that is exactly what is needed in the current situation. The climate and the green Danish companies demand faster action.”

The government has set the lofty goal of quadrupling renewable energy projects on land and triple the production of offshore energy by 2030. However, Green Power Denmark notes that not only are projects sitting in bureaucratic purgatory, this year the offshore wind energy industry is in a near crisis while on land more wind turbines will be removed than set up.

“The government must quickly remove the obstacles that make it difficult or impossible to build solar cells and wind turbines. We must of course take care of animals and nature, but they can easily thrive together with renewable energy. If we continue as we have done so far, we will not reach any of the goals for green energy that we have set ourselves.”

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Changes are coming after the hard lessons learned during last month’s storm surge fueled historic flooding along Denmark’s east coast. Midt and Sydsjællands Fire & Rescue covers both Præstø and Roneklint, two of the hardest hit areas. It says in the future evacuations will begin much sooner. During the floods, rescue crews had to pull people through windows because the flood waters arrived much faster than anticipated.

🇩🇪

It isn’t just Denmark that is still dealing with the ramifications of last month’s historic flooding. Just across the border in Germany, a section of the quay in Flensburg suddenly collapsed on Wednesday night. According to the city, approximately 40 meters of the quay has sunk by half a meter or more. Other parts of the harbour-front infrastructure also seem unstable. The city believes the storm surge was behind the collapse.

The waterfront area around the damaged area has been cordoned off.

🇫🇮

Electricity prices in Finland are in a far better place than they were a year ago but the energy crisis continues to lurk just under the surface. While Finland is in the enviable position of producing more electricity than it consumes thanks to major investments in wind power and the Olkiluoto nuclear reactor. But even then there are hiccups. Earlier this week the spot price of electricity rocketed upward to nearly a euro per kilowatt hour after a fault in the turbine triggered a shut-down of the nuclear reactor. The shut-down was short lived lasting just over a day before things were fixed and the reactor restarted.