The Evening Report - Nov 15

Serious situation in Poland. Denmark in good shape to deal with winter wave.

🚨 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇵🇱 🚨

A potential escalation point in the war in Ukraine has been unfolding as of Tuesday evening. The situation is fluid and in such situations there is a lot of information we don’t know yet.

Here is what we do know:

• On Tuesday, Russia launched another huge missile attack on Ukraine, seeking to hit targets all over the country. Most were reportedly shot down, but a few got through.

• Either two Russian rockets went astray and crossed the border into Poland, or Ukrainian efforts to shoot the missiles down resulted in remnants of two missiles striking Polish territory. At this point we don’t know which scenario occurred.

• The strikes killed two Polish citizens.

• The explosions happened near the Polish city of Hrubieszow, on the border with Ukraine, according to media reports.

• The Polish government convened an emergency meeting Tuesday night.

• NATO is monitoring the situation. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has spoken with the Polish President.

Reaction has been swift across Europe.

EU Foreign Affairs Representative Josep Borrell.

Latvia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs.

Denmark’s Acting Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

Ukrainian officials and even some members of the Ukrainian parliament are calling for NATO to invoke Article 5, which mandates all member nations come to the defense of any other member state under attack. This is….unlikely.

There are some reports that Poland could try to invoke Article 4. This allows an NATO member nation to bring a security issue to the alliance council. It could result in discussions among the 30 member countries on how to combat a threat to any other member state. This would require a unanimous vote.

As I write this..

• Poland has increased its military alert level and readiness

• The Polish government says it is working to see if it can trigger Article 4.

• Polish President has talked to US President Joe Biden and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Invoking Article 4 discussed.

• NATO has called an emergency meeting on the Poland situation for Wednesday.

⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️

Buckle up. Europe’s energy crisis took another turn on Tuesday, with natural gas prices surging due to forecasts for colder weather combined with problems hitting Norwegian suppliers. Natural gas prices shot up by 16% after weather forecasts called for temperatures to plunge in Europe later this week, possibly hitting freezing in some areas. This will mean gas demand will surge as people turn up their heaters.

The other complicating factor is that two Norwegian gas facilities are suffering problems impacting fuel flows. One had a major fire and it won’t be back online until November 19, at the earliest. The other facility was hit by an unexpected power outage crimping its gas shipments.

Fortunately, energy experts say this will likely be a temporary bump with Europe’s gas reserves fully stocked, which should help alleviate pressure over the longer term. So far, an unseasonably warm fall has also helped keep gas demand well below normal levels.

But, its going to be a tense winter with global gas supplies stretched thin and with weather being the ultimate unknown. A major cold snap could have a significant adverse impact. All of this means markets will remain jittery and will be easily spooked over the coming winter.

🦠Pandemic🦠

🇩🇰

COVID vaccine booster doses are now available in Denmark to people not in the current target groups, for a price. The Danish Health Authority says its optional vaccination scheme is now online with bivalent booster doses available at pharmacies, vaccination clinics, and family doctors. People who are not currently eligible for a 4th dose can purchase one at one of these providers. The cost? The health authority says that depends on individual businesses and doctors selling the booster doses.

Copenhagen Medical, which operates a chain of vaccination clinics, is offering a COVID booster dose for 199 dkk.

You can find their clinics are and book an appointment HERE.

You can also find all the pharmacies across Denmark offering a booster dose under the optional scheme HERE.

The dose on offer is the 1st generation bivalent vaccine from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech which targets the original coronavirus strain and the BA.1 Omicron variant.

-

The Statens Serum Institute’s latest pandemic threat assessment concludes that Denmark is well positioned to weather infection threats over the winter months. The agency admits determining any forecasts is complicated due to the possibility of new more dangerous variants emerging in the months ahead. It also decries the lack of testing noting it means that the country is largely flying blind to pandemic developments.

“There is currently low testing activity in society, and this makes monitoring less accurate and thus more difficult to predict the infection situation. And if a new variant with significantly different characteristics than those circulating in society now emerges, this could change the real epidemic development compared to the projections.”

That said, the SSI is forecasting COVID cases to either remain stable or perhaps decline somewhat over the winter. It bases that on the high vaccination uptake in the country, a successful booster dose campaign, and a high level of hybrid immunity in the population. Although it also cautions that it is “difficult to assess” how long hybrid immunity protection lasts. Therefore, there is uncertainty about the agency’s pandemic projections.

Director Henrik Ullum:

“We have previously feared a greater increase in COVID infections here over the fall and winter. It would be natural because we are inside more with less social distancing. But fortunately, booster vaccines in particular seem to be slowing down the infection increase that we saw begin in the fall. In this way, we can keep the overall coronavirus immunity in the population high, and that is good news. But the virus has cheated us before with new variants, so of course we are monitoring the situation closely.”

The SSI notes that while a mini-infection wave began in September, the number of infections and hospitalizations is now falling. It attributes the declines to the ongoing booster dose campaign.

The institute warns that while its pandemic projections are largely positive, those 50 years old and older remain in harms way with a higher risk of severe infections resulting in hospitalization, especially from those who haven’t had a 4th dose.

-

COVID hospitalizations (292) continued to fall (-25) while the number of severely infected people in an ICU (8) also dropped (-4) of those, the number on a ventilator (4) inched down (-1). Infection-related admissions to a psychiatric facility (67) crept up (+3).

-

Denmark reported 686 COVID infections on Monday (underreported), including 313 reinfections, and 11 more coronavirus deaths.

With 7,124 PCR tests taken yesterday, that equals a positivity percentage of 9.62%. Over the last seven days the rate has been 11.83%.

-

The booster dose campaign has now reached 30% of the total population.

-

The Statens Serum Institute says COVID restrictions had a silver lining. While antibiotic use has been falling in Denmark since 2013, over the course of the pandemic, prescriptions for antibiotics have dropped, by 30% in 2021 alone. Among children four years old and younger antibiotic use plummeted by 51%. The SSI says with much less antibiotic use, cases of antibiotic resistant bacteria also fell. The Danish healthcare system has been working to reduce antibiotic usage for years now to tackle the growing problem of antibiotic resistance complicating patient treatments.

-

Danish state auditors have slapped the hands of the Ministry of Culture over pandemic aid handed out to keep businesses afloat during the lockdowns. In a press release, the auditors accuse the ministry of not properly ensuring that bail-out monies actually ended up in the hands of the right people.

“The state auditors find it very unsatisfactory that the Ministry of Culture in the management of the aid packages has not carried out checks that have sufficiently prevented wrong payments and fraud.”

While chiding the ministry for increasing the risk of potential fraud, auditors also added that the ministry violated parliamentary guidelines for how financial aid should be distributed..

🇸🇪

The Swedish Public Health Agency updates national COVID statistics every Thursday afternoon.

-

COVID hospitalizations have increased in Sweden’s capital region. There were 273 pandemic patients across hospitals in Region Stockholm, which is 20 more than there were a week ago. There are just three people in intensive care.

Chief Physician Johan Bratt:

“Stockholm is on a plateau in the spread of infection and has been there for a couple of months. To avoid serious disease, we need to continue vaccination. I especially want to encourage those who have not yet had a vaccine dose to get vaccinated.”

The region reported 633 coronavirus infections in the last week. Those numbers are wildly underreported due to Sweden restricting PCR testing to just seniors in care and people being admitted to hospital. Of the cases over the last week 99 were among vulnerable seniors in care homes.

Region Stockholm is reporting another 21 coronavirus deaths in the last seven days, pushing the to date pandemic death toll in the capital region to 5,677 lives lost. Of those, 1,924 were seniors in care.

The region continues to underscore in its weekly update that Sweden continues to struggle with a backlog of reporting COVID deaths as it has all year.

🇩🇪

Germany recorded 47,179 infections and suffered another 219 pandemic deaths since its last update on Monday afternoon.

It added another 2,166 hospitalizations, while ICU numbers (1,096) edged upward (+19). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country, coronavirus patients are using 5.2%.

On the vaccination front, 77.9% of the total population has one dose, 76.3% have two, and 62.4% have a booster shot.

🦠💉

Moderna says its newest bivalent vaccine has been shown to provide significant protection against the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron sub-variants. It he pharmaceutical company says the results of the second part of three-phase clinical trial of its two bivalent vaccines showed the vaccines triggered “a superior antibody response” compared to its original mRNA COVID vaccine.

CEO Stéphane Bancel says both bivalent vaccines also had promising results against another emerging variant threat.

“We are pleased to see that both of our bivalent booster vaccine candidates offer superior protection against Omicron BA.4/BA.5 variants compared to our original booster, which is encouraging given COVID-19 remains a leading cause of hospitalization and death globally. In addition, the superior response against Omicron persisted for at least three months after the mRNA-1273.214 booster. Our bivalent boosters also showed, in research assays, neutralizing activity against BQ.1.1, an increasingly dominant emerging variant, confirming that updated vaccines have the potential to offer protection as the virus continues to evolve rapidly to escape our immunity."

Moderna says any adverse effects from its two bivalent vaccines were in line with what is expected from its original coronavirus vaccine.

The latest clinical study involved 500 people between the ages of 19 to 89 years old who had been previously vaccinated and boosted. Sttudyresults have been published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

Moderna has two bivalent vaccines both targeting the original coronavirus strain, with one also designed to target BA.1, the original Omicron variant. While the other targets the BA.4 and BA.5 variants, which have been dominant around the globe for the last few months.

🇨🇦

The Public Health Agency of Canada is reporting 18,820 new coronavirus cases in the last seven days, while another 309 lives have been lost to the pandemic. To date, 47,118 Canadians have died in the pandemic.

The agency is reporting that the dominant BA.5 variant is beginning to lose ground to a steadily increasing number of BQ.1.1 and BF.7 variant infection. It says both of the new variants are displaying an increased ability to evade immunity.

The healthcare agency no longer reports even a weekly positivity percentage number. It only updates hospitalization statistics on Thursdays.

On the Canadian vaccination effort, 83.1% of the total population has one vaccine dose, 80.4% have two, 50% have one booster dose, and 18.2% have a second.

Health officials in a number of provinces are now strongly recommending people mask up as infections spread. The provinces with top Doctors urging mask use include British Columbia, Quebec, and Ontario.

Alberta’s Premier, to no surprise, refuses to mandate mask use in schools even though infections are sending thousands of students home sick and overwhelming hospital capacity.

Another COVID wave may be arriving in Saskatchewan, where wastewater surveillance has recorded an almost 500% jump in virus activity in the week ending November 9.

🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War

NATO/ 🇷🇺

As Russia suffers yet another embarrassing defeat in Ukraine, the Secretary-General of NATO is warning not to underestimate Russia. After Ukrainian forces recaptured Kherson, the only major city to fall to the Russians in the war, Jens Stoltenberg says that Putin still has teeth.

“The Russian armed forces still have significant capabilities as well as a large number of troops. The coming months will be difficult. Putin's goal is to leave Ukraine cold and dark this winter. So we must stay the course.”

Some world leaders have been trying to build pressure in Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, accept some concessions and bring the conflict to an end. But, Stoltenberg isn’t among those in support of that idea.

“It is up to Ukraine to decide what kind of terms are acceptable to them. What we should do is to support Ukraine and to strengthen their hand so that at some point there can be negotiations where Ukraine prevails as an independent sovereign nation in Europe.”

🇪🇺

After a meeting of the EU defense ministers the European Union announced a three year plan to significantly ramp up defense spending across member states. 

EU Foreign Affairs Representative Josep Borrell: 

“From now until 2025, member states plan to spend 70 billion euros on defense. If we succeed in doing what we say, then we will have closed the gap after several years of savings and ensured that we have armed forces that are ready to meet our challenges. When we look at investments in defense capabilities, today, only 18% is done in coordination with other EU countries.” 

Borrell says the goal is to increase coordinated defense spending to 35% to both keep prices down but also to create more integration between armed forces across European nations. Borrell called the initiative an avenue to create a “true European defense capacity.” 

The European Union has been working to try and move the countries in the trading bloc to a more integrated armed forces to be able to respond to security situations. This goal has become more urgent after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

🇨🇦/ 🇷🇺

Canada is providing another $500 million in additional military aid to Ukraine. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made the announcement at the beginning of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. Trudeau added that Canada has also sanctioned another 23 Russians who work in the Russian justice and security sectors who are “involved in gross and systematic human rights violations against Russian opposition leaders.” To date, Canada has now sanctioned over 1,400 Russians and Russian businesses.

“Canada continues to support Ukraine as it defends its territory, sovereignty, and independence from Russia. This additional military assistance will support Ukrainians as they bravely continue to fight against Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion, while these new sanctions will put added pressure on those who support these acts of war. We, along with other members of the international community, will continue to use every tool at our disposal to hold Russia accountable for its brutal actions against Ukraine.”

The Canadian government says it has now trained over 34,000 Ukrainian soldiers and security personnel since it launched a military training program to help Ukraine’s military in 2015. It says the Canadian Armed Forces are also busy in Europe helping to transport military aid to Ukraine. So far, over four-million pounds of weapons and other donations have been delivered.

🇷🇺/ 🇨🇦

Russia has added 100 more Canadians to its list of those facing sanctions as it looks to retaliate for mounting Canadian restrictions on Russian individuals and business entities over the illegal invasion of Ukraine. Among the latest batch of Canadians who are now banned from traveling to Russia are journalists like the CBC’s Adrienne Arsenault and Global’s David Akin. Others are bankers, business leaders, and members of the Canada-Ukraine Foundation. Some politicians, like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, and actor and comedian Jim Carrey, are also thrown in for good measure.

🇳🇴 🇬🇧 🇺🇦

Norway is pledging nearly 1.5 billion Norwegian kroner (about $200 million Cdn) in further military support for Ukrainian forces. The money will be placed in the international fund created by Britain. The fund with contributions from western countries, allows Ukraine to go shopping for weapons and military equipment directly from the defense industry.

British Defense Minister Ben Wallace hailed the support from Norway.

“Norway has been unwavering in its support for Ukraine and this significant new contribution to the International Fund for Ukraine will make a material difference in providing further military aid.”

Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram says the fund also opens doors for Norwegian military suppliers.

“This fund provides equipment acquired directly from the defense industry. Norway has a world-leading defense industry within certain areas, and produces systems that can supply Ukraine’s requirements. I am pleased that Norwegian industry will be able to compete for contracts through this fund.”

🇺🇸/ 🇷🇺

The United States has added more sanctions on to the growing pile against Russia. This time the U.S. Treasury Department has targeted what it called a transnational network illicitly supporting Russia’s military industrial complex. Specifically, it is seeking to choke off the supply of microelectronics that Russia relies on to keep its war machine running. The sanctions targeted 14 Russians and 28 business entities, including financial facilitators, enablers, and two key Kremlin-linked associates with fortunes “intertwined with the West.” The U.S. has also seized eight aircraft.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen:

“The United States will continue to expose and disrupt the Kremlin’s military supply chains and deny Russia the equipment and technology it needs to wage its illegal war against Ukraine. Today’s actions demonstrate Treasury’s steadfast commitment to targeting people around the world aiding Putin’s war effort and the crony elites who bankroll his regime. Together with our broad coalition of partners, we will continue to use our sanctions and export controls to weaken Russia’s military on the battlefield and cut into the revenue Putin is using to fund his brutal invasion.”