The Evening Report - Nov 10
Temperature records fall. COVID hospitalizations surge in Sweden.
🍃Environment & Energy⚡️
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Only a week into November and temperature records have already been shattered in Europe. It was 35.1 degrees in the town of Sisi on the island of Crete last weekend. That is the highest November temperature ever recorded anywhere in Europe. Temperatures exceeded 30 degrees last Saturday in as many as 51 different parts of Greece. In contrast the normal highest daily temperature in Northern Crete in November is 20.2 degrees. European meteorologists say the unusually hot weather was due to hot African air blowing across the Mediterranean into Greece.
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It was the hottest October on record globally last month according to the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service. The average surface air temperature was 15.30°C. That is almost a full degree hotter than the previous heat record set in October of 2019. In Europe, Italy, parts of the Balkans, and the central Mediterranean Sea recorded the hottest surface air temperature on record.
October also marked the sixth consecutive month that the ice cap in the Antarctic remained at record low levels.
Overall, the planet is well on track for 2023 to be the hottest year on record.
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The warmer-than-usual November has reduced demand from industries and helped keep a lid off on household gas use. European Union gas reservoirs are sitting at 99.6%. With the start of the usual winter heating season delayed it has helped keep gas reserves topped up and put downward pressure on prices.
But the energy crisis continues to simmer just under the surface and the ultimate wild card is Old Man Winter. If Europe suddenly goes into a deep freeze the situation will change quickly.
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Emergency measures put in place by the European Union last fall due to the energy crisis won’t be going away anytime soon. The EU is proposing to extend the measures due to the uncertainty and increased risks posed by the war between Israel and Hamas and concerns about energy security.
During last year’s energy crisis, the EU instituted a set of measures to try and cushion consumers from skyrocketing energy prices. They included a cap on gas prices, faster permitting for renewable energy projects, and joint purchases of fuel.
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The woes facing Europe’s wind energy industry were foreshadowed by last year’s numbers, which amount to a tale of two energy stories.
Last year, the EU spent €28.4 billion on importing green energy products, which include wind turbines, solar panels, and biofuels. That is more than double the amount spent the year previous. Solar panel imports In particular jumped dramatically soaring 145% year to year.
On the other hand, exports of European green energy products were significantly lower in 2022. There were €3.7 billion in green energy product exports, a 27% year-over-year decrease. In particular, the export of wind turbines dropped like a rock, down 59% from 2021 to 2022. But biofuel (+23%) and solar panel (+44%) exports actually rose.
The European wind energy sector is facing significant challenges due to bureaucratic delays in permitting, supply chain problems, and significant competition from both China and the United States. The European Union is leaning heavily on offshore wind projects in the North and Baltic seas to fuel its green energy transition.
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It could soon become more expensive to fly. The Danish government is pushing for a new airfare tax. The tax, an extra 100 Danish kroner (about $20 Cdn) on average, would fluctuate depending on the length of the flight, lower for domestic flights and higher for long-haul international routes. Monies from the tax would be split between funding an increase to pension checks for retirees and paying for improvements to small Danish airports like Midtjylland Airport, Esbjerg Airport, Sønderborg Airport, and Bornholm Airport.
Several European countries, including neighbouring Germany, already have an airfare tax.
The government is also creating a one-and-a-half billion kroner grant ($296 million Cdn) to help transition the airline industry to clean green technologies. It has set the goal of making domestic airline routes in Denmark entirely green by 2030.
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The Danish island of Ærø is facing a huge bill for damages done by the storm surge flood waters three weeks. In all the flooding damaged roads, dykes, and harbours around the island. The coastal road, Drejet, remains single lane in several places weeks after because the flood waters have undermined parts of the road. Ærø mayor Peter Hansted says they are looking at about 50 million Danish kroner (about $9.8 million Cdn) to repair everything. In Denmark, municipalities are not insured against such damages and have to foot bills like these themselves.
Hansted says Ærø council has found about 6 million Danish kroner in savings within its existing budget but the island can’t afford to foot the rest of the damage costs. He is asking for help from the Danish government.
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Concern is mounting among Danish potato farmers as the fall weather brings rain, rain, and more rain. Farmers say the soaking wet weather is destroying their fields and potato crops that haven’t rotted yet will likely begin to rot soon. They are also concerned that the damage done and the scramble to do a wet harvest to save what they can may have consequences that bleed over into next year’s crops.
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Food prices in Sweden are rising again. Consumer food prices watchdog group Matpriskollen says prices increased on a third of goods available in Swedish grocery stores in October. On average, food prices increased by 0.3% in Sweden last month.
Earlier this year food prices rocketed upward causing a near crisis across the country. At one point the Swedish government called the heads of the largest grocery store chains on the carpet to get prices down. With inflation falling food prices had begun to ease slightly in Sweden until last month’s increases.
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The Tesla strike in Sweden is growing. The striking workers’ Union IF Metall says it will expand its strike from the current four Swedish ports to extending the blockade to all of the ports in the country. This is as it accuses Tesla of trying to do an end run around the strike zones. Other Swedish unions have also announced labour actions in support of the striking workers and to try and increase pressure on Tesla to go to the bargaining table.
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Volkswagen is pausing production of several of its electric cars due to supply chain issues. The production lines producing ID.4 and ID.7 EV models have been stopped at their plant in Emden, Germany because they can’t get their hands on electric motors for the vehicles. The same issue has also ground the electric vehicle production lines to a halt at another VW plant in Zwickau
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The Indian capital of New Delhi has been shrouded in choking smog and abysmal air quality and now India is prepared to take an unusual approach to try and clear the air. The city, home to 28.5 million people, will try to use artificial rain to beat down the smog. If the plan gets final approval from government authorities then the effort to create rain over New Delhi will begin on November 20.
The air pollution has been so bad in the city that schools have closed, outdoor sporting events have been canceled, and even non-essential construction work has been stopped. The air quality is horrendous and is currently about 100 times the health limit set by the World Health Organization.
🦠COVID🦠
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COVID activity (blue line) continues to increase across Denmark as does infection-related hospitalizations (green line). The latest COVID wastewater surveillance results show a “strong increase” in coronavirus activity.
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Overall, the Statens Serum Institute is warning that we are entering the winter respiratory infection danger zone. The SSI says influenza infections have been rising in the last two weeks indicating the beginning of the winter flu season. RS virus cases, mainly among young children under the age of two, have begun increasing as the usual infection wave begins to arrive. All this and COVID numbers have been surging upward for six weeks and counting now.
The SSI says that in all three cases, infection-related hospitalizations remain at a low level albeit the number of coronavirus patients is rising.
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Good news and bad news on the BA.2.86 variant front. The Statens Serum Institute says the much more mutated coronavirus strain is beginning to really spread. Based on what little testing and sequencing that is being done the SSI says the variant is now responsible for 20% of all confirmed positive infections as of two weeks ago. The variant has drawn special concern from epidemiologists due to the more than 30 mutations it has. The last variant to take such a big evolutionary step was the original Omicron strain.
It is also worth noting that it is very unusual for a new variant to arrive and then take this long to suddenly begin to spread as fast as BA.2.86 seems to be doing now in Denmark. Some of this may be due to the sheer lack of understanding we now have of the different variants and infection activity because of lackluster testing numbers.
The good news is that a new study from the institute in collaboration with the clinical microbiology department in Herlev, Denmark has shown that BA.2.86 is no better at evading immunity than any other circulating variant. The SSI says that means that the new,y formulated variant-specific COVID booster doses will offer good protection against severe infections and hospitalization from BA.2.86 infections.
You can find the study HERE.
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The Danish Health Authority is urging those eligible for a COVID booster dose and an influenza vaccination to get inoculated before the Christmas holidays. The agency says uptake is very high although the flu shot continues to be more popular than the COVID booster. So far, 62% of those over 65 have been vaccinated against influenza while 59% have had a COVID booster.
Senior Physician Kirstine Moll Harboe:
“We are very satisfied with how the vaccination uptake against influenza and COVID is progressing. In recent years, Denmark has had a very high vaccine uptake when we have compared it with other countries. We haven’t reached the target yet, but there are many indications that this may also be the case again this year.”
Harboe says vaccination uptake isn’t just important for the protection it offers those in vulnerable and high-risk communities but it is also crucial to prevent the healthcare system from being overrun.
“The vaccines we offer against both flu and COVID are very good. They reduce people’s risk of a severe infection. At the same time, a high adherence to vaccination helps to relieve the pressure that is normally seen in our healthcare system during the winter months. Therefore, we encourage everyone who wants vaccination, but has not yet accepted the offer, to make an appointment or stop by one of the pharmacies that offer drop-in vaccination."
The health authority is sending reminder letters out this week via digital post to anyone over 65 who hasn’t been vaccinated yet. Next week reminder letters will go out to parents of children two to six years old who haven’t had the special pediatric influenza nasal vaccine.
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COVID hospitalizations in Sweden (1,151) continue to rocket upward (+450) while the number of severely infected people needing intensive care (29) has also increased (+9) but to a much lesser degree.
This marks the first time since January of this year that infection-related hospital admissions in Sweden have exceeded 1,000.
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COVID cases are surging in Sweden just as the autumn booster dose and flu shot campaign swings into full gear. Sweden’s Public Health Agency says while influenza cases are beginning to increase elsewhere in Europe the usual winter flu infection wave hasn’t arrived in Sweden yet.
In Sweden, seniors over 65 are eligible for a COVID booster dose as are pregnant women, anyone over 18, some children in high-risk populations, and anyone who has never had a COVID vaccination between the ages of 50 and 64.
Influenza vaccinations can be given to children 6 months old and older who are a high risk, seniors over 65, healthcare workers, and anyone living with someone who is immunocompromised.
State Epidemiologist Magnus Gisslén:
“There is a relatively large proportion of the population who have an increased risk of serious illness, and for them, it is important to get vaccinated against both COVID and influenza. The vaccines provide good protection against severe infections and death, but not as good against becoming infected. The vaccinations should take place before the season to increase protection during the period when the diseases spread the most.”
The health agency says that it takes about two weeks from being inoculated for a person’s immune system to ramp up to provide maximum protection.
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Sweden has pulled a U-turn and will now allow children to get COVID vaccinations. Social Affairs and Public Health Minister Jakob Forssmed told Radio Sweden that the government did an assessment and found they legally could not deny COVID vaccinations for children. Last year, the Swedish Public Health Agency stopped recommending COVID vaccinations for children 12 to 17 years old unless they had special medical reasons. At the time the decision outraged parents in Sweden leading to a number of them taking their children to get vaccinated in other countries.
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Vaccine rage in Finland but it’s not what you think. COVID infections are spreading fast and in some parts of the country demand for a booster dose is exceeding supply. Angry seniors are verbally abusing healthcare workers over the phone as they try to get vaccinated as fast as possible but face delays. Others are just showing up at vaccination sites without an appointment and throwing temper tantrums when they can’t get inoculated.
Vaccination Coordinator Henry Raita told Ilta-Sanomat that the behavior has caught health workers by surprise.
“We're always hearing about young people this and young people that. But there has been more disruptive behaviour from the over-65s than from the youth, which is a little strange. We are talking about grown-up people who have plenty of life experience, and then they don't know how to behave."
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Respiratory infections are rising in Finland. The Finnish Institute for Health says coronavirus cases are increasing but other respiratory viruses are also making the rounds including rhinovirus, enterovirus, and adenovirus.
While infection numbers are rising, Finland has been struggling to roll out its COVID booster doses with demand exceeding supply leading to long waits to get inoculated. The health institute is now admitting that its vaccination rollout was problematic.
Chief Specialist Mia Kontio told Yle that the vaccination campaign simply came too late.
"You have to be realistic about what you can do. COVID vaccines should be given a little earlier, but preferably not until sometime around the turn of the year, so that the effectiveness hasn't declined when the epidemic hits.”
Kontio added that providing both a COVID booster dose and a flu shot at the same time exacerbated their rollout difficulties.
"There are not enough resources to make two such huge rounds [of vaccinations].”
The problematic vaccination campaign has led to long waits for vaccination appointments and growing frustration among vulnerable seniors as infections spread and hospitalizations rise.
The Chief Physician at the Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District Asko Järvinen is advising people to be patient and make an appointment to get vaccinated even if means waiting for a bit. Järvinen advises people who are worried about being infected to mask up when they are out and mingling with others. He also says it is not a good idea to stand in line to get vaccinated more quickly as it is an infection risk.
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Last week the Norwegian Institute of Public Health said the COVID situation was “stable” with infection activity “slightly increasing.” What a difference a week makes. The institute says in this week’s update that the COVID winter wave is now “in full swing” with infection activity expected to increase in the coming weeks. On top of that, it expects the winter influenza epidemic to arrive in force by Christmas.
The health agency is now saying that it is urgent that seniors and people in vulnerable or high-risk populations get a COVID booster dose and an influenza vaccination as soon as possible. It is also warning hospitals to brace for rising numbers of COVID admissions.
Along with clearly increasing coronavirus infections, the institute says hospitalizations are also rising with admissions up 18% in just the last week with 496 new COVID patients. The number of intensive care admissions (12) also crept upward (+3) in the last week but thanks to the immunity wall from previous infections and vaccinations ICU numbers are much lower.
Area Director Trygve Ottersen:
“Our monitoring indicates that the incidence of COVID and influenza are increasing. We see an increasing trend in most of our monitoring sources. The increase could mean an early start to the onset of the winter infection waves.”
Thankfully, COVID deaths have not seen any major increases. 24 more people in Norway died due to the virus last week, two fewer than the week before.
On the variant front, the EG.5.1.x strain seems to be the most active variant in Norway although the NIPH notes BA.2.86 cases are also increasing.
While the winter flu season has yet to officially arrive the institute notes flu cases have been slightly increasing over the last several weeks possibly hinting at an incoming infection wave. There has been however a “clear increase” in the number of influenza-related hospital admissions. There were 35 flu-related admissions last week, 20 more than the week prior.
As for the RS virus, Norwegian health officials say very few cases have been detected so far.
The NIPH is also seeing an increasing number of whooping cough infections over recent weeks. Infections have been especially prevalent among those 15 to 19 years old.
So far the fall/winter vaccination uptake hasn’t had spectacular results in Norway. Just 27% of vulnerable seniors have been boosted so far along with a mere 8% of those in high-risk populations.
“We are concerned that too few in the risk groups for COVID and influenza have been vaccinated as of now. If this trend continues and contributes to an early outbreak of respiratory infections, an unnecessary number of people may become seriously ill, the number of hospitalizations may therefore be unnecessarily high and in turn, put great pressure on treatment capacity.”
The flu shot seems mildly more popular with 41% of vulnerable seniors getting the jab along with 18% of those 18 to 64 who are in high-risk groups. Just 22% of healthcare workers have had the flu shot. Uptake among children is absolutely brutal with just 3.2% of those in high-risk groups getting vaccinated.
“We are concerned that so few children in the risk groups for influenza have been vaccinated. Here, an extra effort must be made to avoid serious illness among vulnerable children.”
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COVID hospitalizations in England continued to ease last week. Infection-related admissions were down 18% from one week to the next according to the COVID Actuaries Response Group. The declines were seen across all regions of the country.
Intensive care occupancy also continues to trend downward as it dropped by another 12%.
The reinfection rate, or R0, also eased slightly to 0.88. Anything over 1 indicates degrees of a spreading epidemic.
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Another 140 lives were lost to the coronavirus across Canada in the last week as the total to-date death toll reaches 54,902 fatalities.
The positivity percentage remains at a high 17.9%, but the Public Health Agency of Canada points out that there are some signs of the positivity percentage beginning to plateau in some parts of the country.
PHAC also continues to warn that seniors are in harm’s way with the bulk of COVID hospitalizations, intensive care admissions, and deaths remaining “highest among the older age groups.”
In the week ending October 31, total COVID hospitalizations nudged upward but overall seem to have hit a plateau. The total number of beds in use by an infected patient increased by 37 to 3,938. All of the increases were seen in general admissions with 3,809 total coronavirus patients, 49 more than the week before. The number of people requiring intensive care actually decreased by 12 to 129. And the number of severely infected people requiring a ventilator also dipped slightly to 65.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
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Ukraine has taken a big step closer to joining the European Union. This week the EU Commission gave the green light for negotiations to begin next year on Ukraine’s admission into the trading bloc. The process to become a member of the EU is long and complicated and this latest development is just one step in a process that still has a long way to go. Next month, the 27 European Union member states will have to decide if they are on board with the EU Commission decision on supporting accession negotiations with Ukraine or not. Even with their support Ukraine still needs to meet a list of seven conditions in order for negotiations to officially begin, conditions that will be tough to meet with the country currently at war with Russia.
The other potential hurdle is that all 27 EU member states have to unanimously support the start of accession negotiations with Ukraine, and the pro-Russian Hungarian government could be a fly in the ointment.
Ukraine wasn’t alone as the EU Commission also gave the go-ahead for Moldova to begin accession negotiations.
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Norway has joined the European ‘Act in Support of Ammunition Production’ program. Considering the urgent need to rebuild ammunition stockpiles while also maintaining a steady stream of shells and bullets to Ukraine the program’s acronym, ASAP, seems fitting.
Norway will pay around 190 million Norwegian kroner (about $23 million Cdn) to join ASAP. It will also set aside another 500 million Norwegian kroner (about $61.5 million Cdn) for financial support for companies that apply through the ASAP program to increase ammunition production in Norway.
Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram believes that joining the ASAP program has the potential to trigger multi-billion dollar investments to increase ammunition production within the Norwegian Defense Industry.
“We have placed several large contracts with Nammo in the past year, and we have advanced payments so that the pace of production can be increased more quickly. Nevertheless, the donations to Ukraine eat away at the emergency stocks in the West, and we must be prepared to stand by this for a long time. We must therefore increase the volume and pace throughout Europe if it is to succeed.”
The ASAP program has about €500 million in it. The funds will cover 45% of the costs to increase ammunition production for European defense companies who apply to the program. The application deadline is mid-December.
🇩🇰/ 🇫🇮 🇱🇹 🇪🇪
Several of Denmark’s close allies have pilloried its rationale for claiming it is meeting the goal set by NATO to spend at least 2% of the gross domestic product on defense. The Danish government says it has met that goal by including the value of all of its weapons donations to Ukraine in its calculations.
Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania are all dismissing the claim saying it is clear that the 2% of GDP spending must be monies invested by a country on its own national defense.
Finnish Minister of Defense Antti Häkkänen:
“From Finland's point of view, defense spending is something that is allocated by the government to develop and strengthen its own national defense, including our commitments to NATO. There is no doubt that we indirectly strengthen our security by helping Ukraine, but that cannot be counted as defense expenditure.”
Successive Danish Defense Ministers and Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen have all repeatedly boasted that Denmark has met its NATO target thanks to its donations of weapons and support for Ukraine. If you don’t include the value of those donations Denmark won’t meet the 2% of its GDP threshold until 2029.
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The Finnish National Enforcement Agency has seized vacation properties belonging to Russian businessman Boris Alyoshin. The two seized properties are valued at €2.5 million. Alyoshin is a former Russian state official who is on the sanctions list due to his links to the Russian defense industry.
Last week, Finnish police and the National Enforcement Agency raided an island owned by Russian arms manufacturer Igor Kesaev, who has also been sanctioned due to his link to the arms industry and the Russian security service FSB.
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The Spanish Defense Headquarters says a new batch of Ukrainian soldiers have arrived in Spain to begin training on the Hawk air defense missile system. They will be taught how to use the system effectively as well as how to maintain and repair it.
Spain has donated a number of the Hawk missile systems to Ukraine including its most recent donation of six more of the missile batteries just last month.
The MIM-23 Hawk is an American medium-range surface-to-air missile system developed by Raytheon.
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First, it was Ukrainian grain now it is Ukrainian truckers. Polish truck drivers blocked three border crossings into Ukraine on Monday protesting that truck drivers from Ukraine have been exempted from border restrictions. The truckers believe that Ukrainian drivers are forcing prices down because they work cheaper than their Polish counterparts and have free rein to go back and forth across the border. Polish truck drivers are demanding, among other things, that border restrictions be reintroduced on the number of Ukraine-registered trucks that can cross into Poland.
Earlier in the year the transport of Ukrainian grain through neighbouring European Union countries also raised the ire of Poland. Farmers in Poland believed the cheaper Ukrainian grain was undercutting the local market. The kerfuffle forced the EU to impose an import ban on Ukrainian grain until they could find a compromise.
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Don’t expect to see any representatives from Russia at this year’s UNESCO general conference in Paris. The French government has denied the Russian delegation visas to travel to France.