The Evening Report - Nov 1
COVID variant picture gets complicated. Norway increases military alert level.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
Denmark’s Statens Serum Institute says the COVID variant picture has become “more mixed.” The agency says the pandemic may be entering a new phase where instead of a series of single dominant variants taking hold, we are now seeing a collection of Omicron sub-variants ruling the roost. The SSI says this is making the COVID situation “much more complex.”
Currently, an assortment of sub-variants from the BA.5 strain, itself an Omicron sub-variant, are dominating in Denmark (BA.5.2, BA.5.2.1, and BA.5.1).
But several new strains are rearing their heads including XBB (0.50%) and two that the Statens Serum Institute say are on their watch list in BF.7, which in week 42 accounted for 20.77% of all coronavirus infections, and BQ.1.1 (6.48%). The agency says the BQ.1.1 variant has been doubling its case rate in each of the last five weeks. The SSI says both strains are driving infection increases in other European countries and could become dominant variants driving new COVID waves. It says the two variants show signs of being more contagious, but so far there is no evidence they cause more hospitalizations.
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Denmark is reporting 922 new COVID infections on Monday; this includes 312 reinfections. Another seven lives have also been lost in the pandemic pushing the to-date death toll to 7,354.
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With 8,060 PCR tests taken on Monday, that equals a positivity percentage of 11.43%. Over seven days the rate is 14.41%.
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The Danish Health Ministry usually publishes a coronavirus contact number (reinfection rate or R0) every Tuesday afternoon. It hasn’t done so since October 4th. I am not sure if this is a temporary pause due to the National election or if it is something more permanent.
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PCR testing is down while COVID activity as detected by wastewater surveillance is up. The Statens Serum Institute says while PCR testing rates have dropped it is seeing increasing concentrations of coronavirus activity in waste water nationally and across all five Danish regions. It says over the last three weeks there have been “strong increases” in COVID activity in Region Hovedstaden (Metro Copenhagen), and Region Nordjylland, as well as virus activity mounting in the other three regions.
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On the COVID hospitalizations front over the last 24 hours, there were 465 infection patients in hospital (unchanged) while the number of severely infected people in an ICU (17) eased slightly (-1) of those, the number of people on a ventilator (9) crept upward (+1). Infection admissions to a psychiatric facility (71) inched upward (+1).
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Denmark has secured 40,000 tablets of Paxlovid, a COVID treatment pill. Danish health authorities say the drug can reduce severe coronavirus infections, hospitalizations, and deaths among those who are at high risk, including vulnerable seniors.
The pill is reserved only for people who are at high risk, have become infected, and are symptomatic. Paxlovid also requires a prescription and so will be available only on the recommendation of a doctor.
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The booster dose campaign is trucking along in Denmark with just over 1.5 million people (26.5% of the total population) having received a fourth vaccine dose so far.
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The Danish National Health Board says the booster dose campaign is going faster than expected. The health authority says over half of the vulnerable older population has now received a 4th vaccine dose.
The health board says vaccine uptake remains highest among the oldest, with 67%of those 85 years old and older getting a 2nd booster shot. Among those 50 to 64 years old, the vaccination rate so far is about 30% but the agency notes that a week ago that vaccination rate was less than half.
The national health authority is anticipating demand to have dropped slightly over the October holiday period, especially with the mild fall weather helping to keep a lid on infection spread. But, it cautions that the weather is going to get colder and eventually swing in favour of the coronavirus, so it is urging people who haven’t yet been vaccinated to go get the jab.
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Region Midtjylland is reporting strong uptake in the fall COVID booster dose campaign. It says 854,092 people have taken a 4th dose so far, equaling a vaccination rate of 62.9% to date. But, the region says if you factor in all the people who are booked to get a 2nd booster dose in the coming weeks, the vaccination rate is pushed to an impressive 71%.
Regional Council Chair Anders Kühnau:
“I am impressed that so many are taking part in the fight against COVID and the other viral diseases that we otherwise risk being hit hard by over the winter months. I think the support is a wise choice, because the vaccines protect both ourselves as individuals and the healthcare system that must care for and treat us.”
The fall vaccination campaign also offers vulnerable populations a chance to get a flu shot at the same time as their COVID vaccine top-up. Region Midtjylland says so far 66% of seniors 65 years old and older have taken advantage and been vaccinated against influenza.
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Volunteers wanted. Aarhus University Hospital is looking for up to 150 volunteers to test a new Danish developed COVID vaccine. Anyone looking to take part must be 18 years old or older and live in East Jutland. They must also be previously vaccinated with an approved COVID vaccine.
The vaccine being put through its paces is the AdaptVac ABNCoV2 formula. It was developed by Bavarian Nordic. The trial will last about six months and will require participants to get one dose of the vaccine and then submit to seven blood tests in the weeks and months following the shot.
Doctor Nina Breinholt Strong:
“It will be people between the ages of 18 and 50 who are not in the target group for the autumn's COVID booster vaccination program who will be able to get the most out of participating, because they will receive a booster vaccination that they would not otherwise have received.”
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Denmark has joined an international effort to try and improve vaccines to make them more effective. The research project includes seven partners from the United States, Australia, and across Europe. As part of the project researchers at the Statens Serum Institute have been given five-million Danish kroner in funding (about $900,000 Cdn) from the US National Institute of Health.
Researchers will focus their efforts on identifying better vaccine adjuvants. Adjuvants are used in vaccines to provoke an increased immune response or better target the immune system at the virus one is trying to vaccinate against.
SSI Head of Adjuvant Research Gabriel Kristian Pedersen:
“In the upcoming studies, we will test our most promising adjuvants with new optimized tuberculosis vaccine candidates from several different research laboratories around the world. It will give us a broad knowledge of what is required to achieve protective immunity and how best to tailor the adjuvants to provide it.”
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Cases of the seasonal RS virus are surging across Denmark. The Statens Serum Institute says in week 39, RS virus infections surged to 13.7% of all respiratory infections, a major increase from the 5% of the week previous. On the other hand, the agency says influenza rates remain low and in line with levels usually seen at this time of year.
🇸🇪
Sweden updates its COVID numbers once a week, every Thursday afternoon.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency is recommending that schools make it a priority to keep schools clean inside, improve ventilation, boost hygiene practices among staff and students, and put some thought into battling noise and other pollution. It says a cleaner, more environmental, school interior is important for improving children’s mental and physical health. Conversely, it is stressing that poor and uncleanly indoor environments can adversely impact children and contribute to infection spread.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency has tabled new possible pandemic scenarios over the next couple of months. The national health agency is also warning that another infection wave is likely during the winter ahead.
In the first of the three possible scenarios, it is assumed that the Omicron BA.5 variant, and its sub-variants, will remain dominant, leading to a declining virus spread in the months ahead.
In the 2nd scenario, the assumption is that new more contagious coronavirus variants with increased immune escape emerge and become dominant. This scenario is projected to see another infection wave that would strain the healthcare system that could peak by mid-December.
In the 3rd and final scenario, it is assumed that a new much more contagious variant with the ability to dodge immune protections takes over. With this scenario hospitals would see a significant influx of patients and an infection wave that is projected to peak by the end of November.
Unit Head Lisa Brouwers:
“Because there are so many uncertainty factors surrounding the development of the infection spread, scenarios are very difficult to calculate. This particularly applies to the characteristics of any new virus variants, which affects when they could take over and how quickly this would happen. Within health care, there needs to be preparedness for an increased stress on the system. It is important that everyone reduces their risk of severe infection, hospitalization, and death by getting vaccinated.”
One of the variables making projections so difficult in Sweden is its lack of PCR testing, leaving it largely blind to pandemic developments in the general population. PCR testing in Sweden is reserved for seniors in care and people being admitted to hospital.
The health agency is ruling out any reimposing of COVID restrictions on the general public; not surprising considering how averse Sweden has been to restrictions to date. That said, if either of the two more serious scenarios plays out, it warns that stricter infection control measures may need to be reintroduced in hospitals and senior care facilities.
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COVID hospitalizations are creeping up in Sweden’s capital region. There are 304 infected people in hospital, according to Region Stockholm’s weekly Tuesday update. That is 39 more patients than there were a week ago.
There are six people in intensive care.
Chief Physician Elda Sparrelid:
“There is an ongoing infection spread in society, but thanks to vaccines, there are still relatively few who have to be treated in hospital due to COVID. In order to maintain protection against severe infection, it is therefore important that we follow the recommendations to get vaccinated including on getting the latest booster dose.”
In the last week, the region is reporting 536 coronavirus infections, which is wildly underreported. Of those, 96 infections were among vulnerable seniors in care.
The capital region has also seen 20 more lives lost to the virus in the last week. It continues to stress that Sweden is still struggling with a backlog in reporting coronavirus deaths as it has all year long.
🇳🇴
Get ready for a winter COVID wave. That is the message to the healthcare sector from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. The agency says its assessment is that infections will increase in the months ahead. But it is not certain how large a wave may be coming. But better safe than sorry, the institute is warning hospitals and other healthcare facilities to prepare for an increase in patients, COVID outbreaks, and staff calling in sick.
One of the reasons behind its increased levels of concern is that COVID variants “with an increased ability to avoid immunity are increasing in occurrence both in Norway and elsewhere in Europe.”
So far, COVID hospitalizations remain stable, with 103 infected patients admitted as of week 42. ICU capacity also remained relatively stable with five new COVID admissions.
Over the last eight weeks, pandemic deaths in Norway have been as low as 17 and as high as 36 each week. 17 fatalities were recorded in week 42 compared to 28 the week before.
COVID wastewater surveillance shows a rising infection trend over the last three weeks. The caveat is that wastewater monitoring in Norway is somewhat limited and covers about 30% of the population.
Overall, the number of confirmed COVID infections in increasing in Norway, with 543 cases in week 42, up from the 495 the week previous. Infection numbers in Norway are very underreported due to its testing regime, which relies heavily on home testing and for people to register a positive test result.
On the variant front, the NIPH notes the emergence of new concerning variants, and while the BA.5 strain remains dominant in Norway, the agency is expecting it will likely be replaced by one of the new variants in the coming weeks.
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While it warns of increasing coronavirus infections, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health notes that, so far, there are no signs of a winter flu epidemic. RS virus cases are also “currently low.”
There were nine influenza-related hospital admissions in week 42, after less than five the week before. Looking at all respiratory infection-related hospitalizations, the agency says numbers remain relatively stable.
The NIPH says so far the influenza A strain covers about 90% of all seasonal flu infections “with no clear predominance of either subtype H1 or H3.”
“Throughout the summer and early autumn, we see that there is an increasing incidence of new variants of influenza A(H1N1) and B-Victoria in Norway and that these have changes from the virus of the previous winter, which may lead to us being less protected against these.”
🇫🇮
The Finnish Institute for Health updates its COVID statistics weekly every Thursday afternoon.
🇩🇪
Germany recorded 48,556 coronavirus infections on Monday as well as suffering another 150 pandemic deaths.
It saw 1,842 hospitalizations, while ICU numbers (1,584) inched upward (+4). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country, COVID patients are using 7.7%.
To date, 77.9% of the total population has one vaccine dose, 76.3% have two, and 62.3% have a booster shot.
🇪🇺🦠
A new study from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control has found that long-COVID is more prevalent among those who have survived severe COVID infections requiring hospitalization.
The study found that five of the more common long-COVID symptoms (fatigue, shortness of breath, depression, headache, and dizziness) were more prevalent among infected people who were hospitalized than those who weren’t.
The ECDC report also leaned on studies from Europe, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.
The agency cautions its report has limitations and more studies are needed to confirm their findings.
You can find the report in full HERE.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada updates its COVID numbers once a week every Friday afternoon.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
We are starting to get some sense of how Russia’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine and its subsequent weaponizing of energy exports added fuel to the fire of the energy crisis in Europe.
According to European statistics agency EuroStat electricity prices shot up in 22 of the European Union’s 27 member countries in the first six months of the year. The Czech Republic(+62%) and Latvia (+59%) saw the steepest increases. But in some cases like the Netherlands (-54%) electricity prices actually decreased.
Overall, EuroStat says the average electricity price increased by just over €3 per kilowatt hour across the EU in the first six months of the year to €25.3 per 100 kWh.
And it wasn’t just electricity prices as natural gas costs in Europe have also risen, going from €6.4 to €8.6 per 100 kWh on average. 23 EU nations saw gas prices rise in the first half of the year led by Estonia (+154%), Lithuania (+110%), and Bulgaria (+108%).
🇩🇰
As of November 1, people and businesses in Denmark can have their electricity and natural gas bills frozen with any extra increased costs deferred to a future date. It became official after the European Commission approved the Danish scheme to freeze utility bills as one avenue to tackle the energy crisis. The Danish Energy Agency does caution that due to the changes needed in each companies IT systems, it may vary when individual energy companies are able to process registering requests to freeze energy bills.
🇫🇮
Calls for energy conservation seem to have been heeded in Finland as the government urged people to cut back due to the energy crisis. According to the Finnish Energy Industry electricity use has decreased by 13.5% so far this fall compared with usage just a year ago.
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In Germany, an expert commission has tabled a number of recommendations to try and tackle the energy crisis. Among them is short term protection for renters struggling with rising energy costs.
The commission, which includes representatives from trade unions, academia, and the German parliament, is recommending that landlords of renters who can’t pay their energy bills be banned from kicking them out for at least six months. It also wants renters who are in trouble to have access to debt counseling and for impacted landlords to get some fiscal assistance.
The commission is also suggesting a one-off energy rebate for district gas and heating customers and “price brakes” be put in place for gas costs for consumers and big industrial companies.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇳🇴/ 🇷🇺
“We are in the most serious security policy situation in decades.”
Norway is increasing its military preparedness due to Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre announced on Monday that effective November 1, Norway’s military is increasing its alert level.
“There are no indications that Russia will expand its warfare to other countries, but the increased tension means that we are more exposed to both threats, intelligence and influence campaigns. That makes it necessary for all NATO countries to be more vigilant, including Norway.”
The increase in preparedness means that training will take a backseat to what Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram called “reprioritizations.”
“Not everything that is done is what it seems, and not everything that we can talk about openly. The armed forces have a good overview of the situation, and we are now putting the armed forces in a position to cope with the situation over time.”
Obviously, exact details of what the country’s military will be doing are classified. What we do know is that Norwegian armed forces are speeding up deployment of its new P-8 Poseidon submarine hunting patrol aircraft. It has also ended plans for Norwegian F-35 fighter jets to go to the United States on a training exercise preferring to keep the warplanes closer to home.
Norway has recently stepped up patrols around its oil and gas installations, especially those offshore. This comes in the aftermath of the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines. Norwegian authorities have also arrested several Russian men in recent weeks, reportedly with drone footage of oil and gas sites. The arrest of an accused Russian spy posing as a Brazilian researcher working at the University of Tromsø also grabbed global headlines recently.
Norway and Russia share a nearly 200 kilometer land border in the arctic as well as a huge maritime border area.
🇳🇴 🇩🇪 🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
Germany, Norway, and Denmark are working together to buy 16 Zuzana howitzers for Ukraine. The three countries will jointly purchase the self-propelled howitzers from Slovakia and then transfer them to Ukrainian armed forces.
🇩🇰
Just a heads up. The Danish Air Force is warning that the skies above Denmark may get a little noisy over the next few weeks, but it not cause for concern. In a Facebook update, the military says F-16 fighter jet exercises will be held at night over the next five weeks.
“If you experience prolonged rumbling from the sky, it is training in "Close Air Support", where the pilots typically train to rescue their own forces by bombing the enemy with precision weapons.”
At the latest the exercises will take place until midnight.
🇫🇮 🇸🇪/ 🇭🇺 🇹🇷
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin is urging Hungary and Turkey to support Finland and Sweden’s NATO applications and for the last two hold-out countries to swiftly hold ratification votes. 28 of the 30 NATO member nations have ratified the two NATO membership applications. But Finland and Sweden need a thumbs up from all 30 member nations.
“All eyes are now on Hungary and Turkey. We are waiting for these countries to ratify our applications. I think it would be important that this would happen preferably sooner than later.”
Sweden’s new Prime Minister has already traveled to Turkey to try to convince the government there in person to support his country’s NATO bid.