The Evening Report - May 7th
Infection activity continues to increase in Denmark
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In non-COVID news the Staten Serum Institut says 2020 saw the highest increase of Legionnaires' disease ever seen in Denmark. There were 278 total cases of Legionnaires’ disease last year. Of those 263 were infected in Denmark an increase of 25% over any other year.
The SSI’s Søren Anker Uldum:
“The increase in the number of infected in Denmark may be related to a higher test activity in 2020. It may be due to the fact that many hospitalized patients with suspected COVID-19 have also been examined for legionella infection.”
Of the 278 cases 39 people died within 30 days of infection. That equals a mortality rate of 14%. To put some context into that the current mortality rate for the coronavirus in Denmark is less than 1%.
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The Danish Health Ministry (Sundhedsministeriet) sent out a press release today reminding people that all rules around the wearing of masks remain in place. It said it had received an avalanche of inquiries on the matter after what is best described as bureaucratic housekeeping created the wrong impression that mask rules had been repealed. They have not. They remain in place.
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Denmark’s Health Minister Magnus Heunicke has told DR that the finishing touches will be put on the optional scheme to administer AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines through private providers by next week. Heunicke told the national broadcaster he expects the alternate vaccination system through private clinics to be up and running by around May 20th. That said he cautioned the private providers may have their own hiccups getting going and that could further delay the program.
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Region Sjælland staff aided by family doctors were out again today getting vaccinations to people with serious mobility challenges. They visited 86 people and inoculated them in their own home. To date the region has administered 909 home vaccinations.
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For a 2nd day in a row Denmark is reporting over 1,000 new COVID infections, 1,023 to be exact, and two more coronavirus deaths.
Yesterday there were 698,863 total COVID tests done, 202,279 PCR and 496,584 rapid, for a (PCR only) positivity percentage of 0.51%.
Another sign coronavirus infections may be on the march again in Denmark is that the number of kommunes with an infection incidence rate exceeding 200 per 100,000 has risen from two to eight in a week. The eight are Hørsholm, Billund, Brøndby, Gentofte, Høje-Taastrup, Albertslund, Vallensbæk, and København.
Hørsholm Kommune has now been ordered to go back into a lockdown as its infection rates exceed the benchmarks triggering an automatic shut down.
As well Sønderbro district in Horsens Kommune has also been locked down as its infection rates rise. It joins Jerne parish in Esbjerg Kommune as the only two municipal districts in Denmark under lockdown.
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COVID hospitalizations (157) crept up (+1) while the number of infected people in an ICU (31) has dipped (-3) and of those the number of people on a ventilator (16) inched down (-4).
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On the vaccination front, to date 1,463,298 1st doses (25% of the population) have been administered while 794,757 people (13.6%) are now fully vaccinated.
In the last 48 hours (tech issue) there were 102,754 total vaccinations done.
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Vaccination of the general public is underway as those between 60 and 64 years old have begun to get the jab.
The Staten Serum Institute says vaccination campaign is going well with nursing home residents, people over 65 receiving home care, and seniors over 85 seeing high rates of vaccination uptake at 92%, 86% and 93% respectively.
The SSI’s Palle Valentiner-Branth:
“The proportion of people who have started vaccination among 80-84-year-olds, 75-79-year-olds and 65-74-year-olds is already up to 94%, 93% and 74% respectively. It is really positive to see the high level of support continuing among the newly included target groups.”
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The Staten Serum Institut is now tracking statistics of rapid vs PCR positive test results. Currently anyone getting a positive rapid test result must immediately take a PCR test as confirmation. The SSI says the rate of false positive results from rapid tests has diminished over the last few months with over 91% of positive rapid test results being confirmed in the follow up PCR test.
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Sweden has added 5,671 infections and another 15 corona deaths since yesterday’s update.
To date 2,852,689 1st dose (34.8% of the population) and 826,762 2nd vaccine doses (10.1%) have been administered
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A study from Sweden’s National Board of Health has found that the coronavirus was the third highest cause of death in the country last year behind cardiovascular disease and cancer. That said the agency acknowledges Sweden’s excess mortality rate was significantly higher than any of its Nordic neighbours. An earlier study from the health agency found the pandemic death toll had caused the first decline in life expectancy in Sweden in perhaps the last 100 years.
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Norway has added 435 infections and had no new corona deaths in the last day.
COVID hospitalizations (114) inched down (-1) ICU numbers (44) are up (+2) ventilator numbers (28) are down (-3).
To date 27.19% of Norwegians have one vaccine dose and 8.41% have had both.
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This is a pretty good graphic looking at total coronavirus deaths by region across Sweden, Denmark, and Norway normalized by population.
(Graph courtesy of @jocami_ca on Twitter)
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Finland has registered 254 infections and three more virus deaths since yesterday’s report.
COVID hospitalizations (133) are up (+6) ICU numbers (28) also edged up (+1).
To date 1,869,566 1st doses (33.6% of the population) and 199,480 2nd vaccine doses (3.6%) have now been administered.
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Germany has also announced an alternate vaccination scheme for its AstraZeneca doses. In the plan, which still needs government approval, every adult in the country could soon be able to get an AstraZeneca vaccination at their family doctor.
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The German federal court has given its stamp of approval to legislation allowing more freedoms for those who are fully vaccinated. COVID restrictions for things like how many people can gather or nightly curfews would no longer apply to anyone having both vaccine doses. However basic safety precautions remain in place like wearing a mask in public spaces and abiding by social distancing guidelines even for the vaccinated.
German Health Minister Jens Spahn says it looks like the third infection wave “has broken” but he urged people to remain vigilant.
“The measures adopted, reducing contacts and mobility, have led to the initiation of a positive trend. Too many countries open when the initial incidence rate is relatively high. We should now work together to prevent the numbers from rising again. Overconfidence must not lead to negligence in contact and distance rules.”
Spahn added work is being done to extend the freedoms for for those who are fully vaccinated to travelers coming to Germany who have had both doses.
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The United Kingdom has upgraded the B.1.617 corona variant, first identified in India, to a ‘variant of concern.’ The reason public health authorities in England are growing more worried about the virus variant is that it is rapidly spreading across the U.K. As well “it is assessed as having at least equivalent transmissibility to B.1.1.7 (U.K. variant) based on available data.” Public Health England adds “there is insufficient data currently to assess the potential for immune escape.”
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As the infection curve in the U.K. continues to get driven into the ground, the latest Public Health England COVID situational report finds infections are falling across the board. Including in schools and universities.
It also found infections rates were also dropping like a rock across all age groups and across different ethnicities.
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The BBC is reporting that the U.K. Government has unveiled its ‘Green’ list. These are countries where people from the U.K. can travel to and return home from with no requirement for a mandatory quarantine. Although testing before and after the trip will still be required.
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According to data from two ‘real world’ studies of vaccinations in Israel and Qatar the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is extremely effective again both the U.K. and South African corona variants. The studies suggest that the vaccine is highly effective at preventing severe pneumonia and death as a result of either variant.
In the Qatar study published in the New England Journal of Medicine the vaccine was found to be 87-89.5% effective at preventing infection from the U.K variant and 72.1-75% effective against the South African strain.
The Israel study published in The Lancet found the vaccine was more than 95% effective at preventing infection, hospitalization, and death in a country where the U.K. variant is the dominate virus strain.
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In Canada there were 7,981 infections and 39 more coronavirus deaths reported yesterday.
Hospitalizations nationally have decreased slightly but still remain concerning. Between April 27th and May 4th, the latest update, the number of COVID patients in a hospital decreased from 3,005 to 2,816 beds. However in the same period the number of people in an ICU increased from 1,326 to 1,366 as did those on a ventilator gong from from 772 to 809.
To date 13,728,528 1st vaccine doses (36.12% of the population) have been administered while 1,196,166 people are now fully vaccinated.
In Ontario today per Health Minister Christine Elliott who tweeted “Ontario is reporting 3,166 cases of COVID19 and over 51,300 tests completed. Locally, there are 876 new cases in Toronto, 817 in Peel, 300 in York Region, 205 in Durham and 148 in Hamilton. As of 8:00 p.m. yesterday, 5,885,485 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been administered.” There were also 23 more deaths.
Quebec reported 919 infections and another five days.
In Atlantic Canada, Nova Scotia has recorded another record high number of new infections with 182.
Manitoba saw its highest increase of daily new infections in four months with 363 yesterday along with four more virus deaths. Modeling in the province paints a dire picture for hospitalizations saying if the current situation persists ICU capacity could double before months end.
There were 156 infections and no new deaths in Saskatchewan yesterday.
Alberta registered 2,211 new infections and no new deaths yesterday. The province has a positivity percentage of 11%. There are 654 people in hospital with 146 in an ICU
B.C. reported 684 infections and one more corona death yesterday. There are 457 people in hospital with 154 in an ICU, in both cases those numbers have declined slightly.