The Evening Report - May 5
Russia lashes out at Denmark. Global COVID deaths MUCH higher than reported.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
One month to the day that Denmark expelled 15 Russian diplomats and embassy staff, accusing them of being spies and carrying out espionage on Danish soil, Russia has responded in kind. On Thursday, it expelled seven Danish diplomats from Denmark’s embassy in Moscow.
Russian state news agency TASS says the diplomats now have two weeks to get out of the country.
Denmark’s Ambassador to Russia, Carsten Søndergård, was also called on the carpet by the Russian diplomatic office. He was told Denmark was taking “unfriendly actions” towards Russia and was seriously straining diplomatic relations.
🇸🇪 🇫🇮/ NATO
It looks like Sweden will be right behind Finland in making a decision on whether to join NATO or not. The ruling Social Democrats have called for an extraordinary meeting on May 15 to announce the party’s stance on NATO, something to this point that the party has been mum about. The timeline was confirmed by party secretary Tobias Baudin in an interview with TT.
Finland is expected to begin the process of announcing a decision to join NATO on May 12, followed by a formal application within days. Further adding to mounting evidence of close coordination between the two countries on a decision to join NATO, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö will arrive in Stockholm for a state visit on May 17.
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A day after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz provided security insurance against Russian aggression for both Sweden and Finland during an NATO application process the United States is following suit. Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister Ann Linde, who is in Washington for a series of meetings, said she has received security assurances from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Linde told Aktuellt that she can’t go into detail about what exactly that means.
“I can state after talking to Antony Blinken and a number of senators who are responsible for these issues, that there is great interest on the part of the United States for Sweden and Finland joining NATO. It is thought that there would be a positive security policy situation in the Arctic and the Baltic Sea area. Therefore, one is prepared to provide different types of security insurance. It would mean that Russia gets it clear that if you direct negative activities towards Sweden, which they have been threatened with, then there is nothing that the United States would just let pass unnoticed without doing anything.”
Finnish News Agency STT is reporting that France is also joining Germany, the United States, and Britain, in pledging to support Finland militarily during an NATO application process should the need arise.
Both Sweden and Finland have been concerned about the application period to join NATO when article 5, the commitment that an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all, wouldn’t yet be in force.
🇫🇮 🇸🇪 🇩🇰 🇳🇴
The Nordic Prime Ministers met in Copenhagen this week where Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin briefed them on the Finnish security situation “including Finland's possible decision to apply for NATO membership.” Marin also told her fellow heads of state that the NATO question will be answered soon.
“I think Finland will make the decision soon. We are talking about weeks and not months.”
Both Danish and Norwegian Statsministers, Mette Frederiksen and Jonas Gahr Støre, said that Sweden and Finland have their strong support if they choose to join NATO Støre added that if the two countries decide to apply for NATO membership, then the other Nordic governments will advocate that the approval should take place "on the same day.”
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Finland’s Ministry of Defense (Puolustusministeriö) says a “Russian state aircraft” is suspected of violating Finnish airspace along the eastern border on Wednesday morning. The incident happened between Kesälahti and Parikkala.
The Finnish Border Guard has initiated an investigation.
🇫🇮/ 🇺🇦
Finland is sending more of what it called “defensive equipment” to Ukraine. But the country is keep in a lid on exactly what will be shipped to the embattled country, nor will it reveal when it will be delivered. The Finnish Defense Ministry only says it has taken into account “both the needs of Ukraine and the resource situation of the Defense Forces.”
Minister of Defense Antti Kaikkonen:
“Finland has supported Ukraine in many ways, including with defense equipment. Ukraine's need for additional assistance is high. We will increase the amount of defense equipment we send.”
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
This week, the European Union announced a 6th package of sanctions levied against Russia for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Among the growing penalties, a list of Russians facing personal sanctions will grow to include high-ranking military officers and any other solider or individual who played a role in war crimes in the city of Bucha. Also facing sanctions will be any troops who are participating in the horrific siege of Mariupol.
EU President Ursula von der Leyen:
“This sends another important signal to all perpetrators of the Kremlin's war: We know who you are, and you will be held accountable.”
Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, and two other banks will be cut off from Swift, the international transaction mechanism.
“By that, we hit banks that are systemically critical to the Russian financial system and Putin's ability to wage destruction. This will solidify the complete isolation of the Russian financial sector from the global system.”
The EU will also completely ban the three major Russian state-owned broadcasters from European airwaves. It is also following the United Kingdom’s lead and prohibiting the Kremlin and any Russian company from using the services of EU accountants, consultants, and spin doctors.
The big move though, is Europe moving to end its reliance on Russian oil and gas. The EU will phase out “in an orderly fashion” all Russian oil, seaborne, pipeline, crude, and refined. Russian crude oil is to be phased out within six months and refined products will be completely terminated by years end. During the phase-out period, Europe will secure alternative energy supply routes and “minimize the impact on global markets.”
🦠Pandemic🦠
WHO/COVID
Yet another analysis has found that the global COVID death toll is much higher than what has been publicly reported to date. Currently, about 6.2 million coronavirus fatalities have been reported since the pandemic began in the spring of 2020. But an expert panel struck by the World Health Organization has determined that in the first two years of the pandemic excess deaths, the number of deaths over the yearly average, increased by a mind numbing 14.9 million.
The WHO expert panel says while the lions share of lives lost was directly due to coronavirus, there would also be people who died because the pandemic made accessing healthcare much more difficult. For example, it says getting treatment for things like heart attacks would have suffered as hospitals were swamped with COVID patients.
The report found in 2020 alone, excess mortality was about 18% higher, or roughly equivalent to 10 million more lives lost than otherwise would have died in any previous year without the pandemic.
WHO Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus:
“This sobering data not only points to the impact of the pandemic but also to the need for all countries to invest in more resilient health systems that can sustain essential health services during crises, including stronger health information systems. WHO is committed to working with all countries to strengthen their health information systems to generate better data for better decisions and better outcomes.”
Developing countries and those with regimes who deliberately squashed public reporting had the highest pandemic excess deaths. In Mexico, excess mortality is double the current publicly reported death toll of about 324,000. In Egypt, excess mortality is 12 times higher than the number of publicly reported deaths of about 24,000. In Pakistan it was eight times higher. Russia has reported about 376,000 COVID deaths, while the expert panel determined it has suffered 1.1 million excess deaths. But it is India, where by far the highest rates of excess mortality were found. The expert panel determined nearly a third of the ‘real’ COVID death toll, about 4.7 million lost lives, was in India. The country has only publicly reported about 523,000 pandemic fatalities.
It is worth mentioning that India, obviously in damage control mode, prevented this report from being released much earlier than it was.
🇩🇰
The pandemic barometers in Denmark, both the reliable and the less so, continue to point to a declining epidemic. That is according to the latest weekly assessment from the Statens Serum Institute.
In the last week of April, hospital admissions dropped to 455, a 20% week-over week decrease. The SSI says falling hospitalization rates are seen across all age groups. Intensive care admissions also dropped to eight last week compared to 15 in the week previous. What is going up, though, is the number of people being admitted directly due to a coronavirus infection, as opposed to being infected but going to hospital for a non-pandemic reason. The rate of admissions due to a severe infection rose from 47% to 50% from one week to the next.
Pandemic fatalities are also on the decline in Denmark. The institute’s latest look at the numbers shows 74 COVID deaths last week, 16 fewer than the week before. The institute says excess mortality rates have dropped to “expected levels.”
Another reliable pandemic measure is wastewater testing. Across Denmark, it has been shown that virus activity continues to decline in all five Danish regions.
As for the much less reliable markers, the number of new COVID cases plummeted by 37% last week. The same time period also saw the number of PCR tests administered fall by 13.5%. The positivity percentage also continues to slip, going from 16% to 12% week to week.
Infection cases among elderly nursing home residents, a population that still has high testing rates, declined from 289 cases in week 16 to 182 in week 17. COVID fatalities crept upward among seniors in care, with 21 lives lost last week, which is two more than the week before.
Region Sjælland has the highest COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people with 135, followed by the capital region with 128. The incidence rates increased in all five Danish regions last week.
Looking at coronavirus cases by age, while overall infection numbers have dropped across all age groups, it remains highest for those 50 years old and older. That is also the group with the highest testing rate.
The positivity percentage also continues to slide across all age groups. It is highest (14%) among seniors between the ages of 60 to 69 years old and lowest (6.9%) among children 3 to 5 years old.
The BA.2 variant remains king in Denmark, accounting for about 99% of all sequenced positive test results last week. The BA.2 variant with the H78Y mutation has seen its growth flatline and now is decreasing slightly. The SSI notes the B.2.12.1 variant, which is getting attention due to significant growth in places like the United States and South Africa, is growing ever so slightly in Denmark, going from 0.37% to 0.50% of all cases (50 people) week to week. BA.4 and BA.5 also remain at extremely low levels, just 0.43% (14 people) and 0.00% (2 people) respectively.
Senior Researcher Morten Rasmussen:
“SSI continues to monitor the new sub-variants closely. However, with the current data base and sparse knowledge about the infectivity of the new variants, it is too early to assess how the infection will develop in South Africa and the USA in the near future.”
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COVID hospitalizations (539) continue to fall (-29) while the number of severe #coronavirus infections in an ICU (5) crept up (+1) and of those the number on a ventilator (1) is unchanged day to day. #COVID admissions to a psych ward (171) dropped (-10).
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Danish hospitals are still struggling with staffing issues resulting in their operating well under capacity even as the COVID epidemic declines. According to a report from DR, the Danish regions have met with Health Minister Magnus Heunicke to discuss concerns about being short-staffed. Hospitals across Denmark are operating anywhere between 75% to 95% of pre-pandemic activity levels. The pandemic resulted in a backlog of delayed and postponed surgeries and procedures impacting about 100,000 people.
Chair of the Danish Regions Anders Kühnau spoke to DR:
“Unfortunately, hospitals are not yet up to a level where they can treat as many patients as before the pandemic. But we are on our way.”
The regions say the goal is to get caught up on the pandemic backlog by 2023.
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Denmark reported 872 COVID infections (underreported), including 64 reinfections, and had 11 more coronavirus deaths in the last day.
Yesterday there were 8,104 PCR corona tests taken, equaling a positivity percentage of 10.76%.
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On the vaccination front, numbers remain more or less static with 11 days to go before the national campaign is paused. Keeping in mind that paused means the National Health Board won’t send out vaccination booking or reminder letters. It does not mean you can’t still get vaccinated as vaccination sites will remain open.
To date, 82.1% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 80.7% have two, and 61.6% have a booster dose.
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On the influenza front, the number of seasonal flu cases continued to fall last week. The SSI is anticipating flu rates to continue to diminish in the coming weeks. The agency anticipates flu-related hospitalizations and deaths among vulnerable seniors should also continue to head downward.
🇸🇪
Sweden has added 2,173 infections and suffered another 52 corona deaths since its last update one week ago.
So far, 87.1% of the population 12 years old and older, have one vaccine dose, 84.9% have two, and of those 18 years old and older, 64.4% have a booster dose.
Among those 80 years old and older, 70% have had a fourth dose. In the 65 to 79 year old age group 45% have had a 2nd booster shot, a 12% week-over week increase.
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Sweden continues to see a declining epidemic, but even with very limited testing the Swedish Public Health Agency notes decreasing COVID rates are slowing and some areas of the country have now stopped altogether.
In the last week of April, the agency says there were 2,300 confirmed coronavirus infections, a drop of 8% from the week previous. With just over 20,600 people tested that week, a small increase from the week before, the positivity percentage equals 11%.
Sweden’s case numbers are wildly underreported as it has restricted COVID testing to just seniors in care and people admitted to hospitals.
Looking at hospitalization numbers, the health agency says there were six new intensive care admissions last week. It says overall ICU numbers have “decreased slightly” for the first time since mid-March. The agency did not provide any specific ICU numbers.
COVID fatalities also declined slightly, with 65 confirmed pandemic deaths in the last week of April. Although that number should be taken with a grain of salt as Sweden continues to struggle, as it has for many months now, with a backlog in reporting pandemic deaths. The health agency refers to the backlog as “a certain delay in the statistics.”
State Epidemiologist Anders Lindblom:
“We can not stress it enough that as many people as possible should get vaccinated. Sweden is still in a pandemic, and the vaccine provides a high level of protection against severe infection and death.”
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Sweden’s late influenza infection wave may have peaked. The Swedish Public Health Agency says there were 396 confirmed cases of the flu last week. That is the first decline in weekly influenza numbers since the seasonal flu made a late resurgence in March. The agency says seniors over the age of 65 continue to be the hardest hit. Regionally, the highest influenza activity in week 17 was reported in Värmland, followed by Dalarna, Kalmar, Jämtland Härjedalen, and Norrbotten.
🇳🇴
Norway added 700 infections and 74 more pandemic deaths in the last 48 hours.
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health no longer reports daily hospitalization data.
So far, 80.4% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one dose, 74.8% have two, and 54.4% have a booster.
🇫🇮
Finland registered 29,754 infections and 211 more virus deaths since its last update on Thursday of last week. Total to-date pandemic fatalities in Finland now exceed 4,000.
COVID hospitalizations (774) are down (-28).
To date, 80.3% of the total population have one dose, 77.1% have two, and 52.3% have a booster shot.
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While Finland sees its Omicron-driven infection wave begin to ease, the number of coronavirus deaths is heading in the opposite direction. According to the latest pandemic snapshot from the Finnish Institute for Health
The agency says over a two week period ending May 1, there were 474 COVID deaths, a number significantly higher than the 337 from the previous 14 day period. The median age of corona fatalities was 83 years old. The agency says the rising number of COVID deaths is directly linked to increasing infection spread among vulnerable seniors.
The institute says COVID hospitalizations are dropping. In the last two weeks of April, there were 600 pandemic patients admitted to specialized healthcare. In the first two weeks of the month that number was 800. Intensive care admissions are also headed downward, with 38 new admissions over the same time period compared to 58 from the previous two weeks. The agency says about 40% of infected people who are admitted are being treated for something other than their infection.
COVID wastewater testing continues to show high levels of virus activity, albeit with rates starting to decrease, at least at the national level.
🇨🇦
Canada is reporting 4,269 new infections (wildly underreported) while suffering another 64 coronavirus deaths pushing the total to-date number of COVID deaths to 39,485.
The national seven day positivity percentage is 14.7%.
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So far the Canadian vaccination effort has administered 32,944,815 1st vaccine doses (86.16% of the total population) while 31,299,844 people (81.86%) have two doses, and of those, 19,495,838 people are fully vaccinated with the three doses.
In Ontario, COVID hospitalizations (1,676) edged downward (-22) while ICU numbers (205) crept up (+6). It has also recorded 32 more pandemic deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 15.06%.
Quebec saw COVID hospitalizations (2,119) fall (-57) while ICU numbers (64) also dropped (-14). It recorded another 18 deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 7.54%
Newfoundland and Labrador had three more pandemic deaths pushing the total to date to 168 lives lost. COVID hospitalizations (14) dropped since Monday (-10) while ICU numbers (5) inched upward (+3).
Nova Scotia reported its second-highest ever number of pandemic deaths on Thursday with 22 fatalities. There are 24 people in hospitals, including 12 in intensive care. The province also noted 188 people became infected with the coronavirus after being admitted to hospital for another health issue.
In New Brunswick COVID hospitalizations (123) are down (-45) while ICU numbers (13) also dropped (-6). The province suffered 15 more pandemic deaths in its latest weekly report.
Manitoba suffered 27 more COVID deaths in its latest weekly report. Hospitalizations (185) declined (-15) while ICU numbers (12) were unchanged. The province has a positivity percentage of 20.7%.
In its latest weekly report, Saskatchewan registered 390 COVID hospitalizations, 19 fewer than reported last week. Of those, 20 are in intensive care, which is unchanged week to week. The province has recorded another 14 pandemic deaths.
COVID hospitalizations in Alberta are increasing, with 1,267 pandemic patients up 47 over the last week. Of those, 46 are in an ICU a drop of just one week over week. The province also recorded another 69 coronavirus deaths. It has a positivity percentage of 22.98%.
In BC, there are 550 COVID hospitalizations and of those 39 are in intensive care. The province has suffered another 50 pandemic deaths. It has a positivity percentage of 8.41%.