The Evening Report - May 2
Denmark close to climate targets. Baltic GPS jamming concerns.
🍃Environment & Energy⚡️
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While warmer weather and lots of sunshine have finally arrived in Denmark after a long, dark, and very wet winter, skin experts are warning people to protect themselves. For the next little while, the ozone layer is a little thinner than usual, which means the UV index, a measurement of potentially harmful ultraviolet radiation, exceeds 4. The Danish Cancer Society recommends that sunscreen be used as soon as the UV index surpasses 3.
The agency says after a long, dark winter, people are especially vulnerable to ultraviolet radiation in the sun’s rays during the spring. That is because your skin hasn’t yet had enough exposure to sunlight to produce the pigment needed as a defense mechanism.
The Cancer Society advises that the sun’s UV rays are strongest between noon and 3:00 p.m. It says people can protect themselves by staying in the shade, wearing a hat or long sleeve shirt, or using sunscreen with a sun protection factor of at least 15.
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Finland experienced some wild weather last month with a 50 degree temperature swing. The Finnish Meteorological Institute says April began with unusually warm weather and ended with an unexpected snowstorm. The coldest day in April was the 3rd of the month in Finnish Lapland, when the thermometer plunged to -34.4 degrees. 26 days later, April recorded its warmest day, with temperatures hitting 20.8 degrees at Mikkeli Airport, a few hours north of Helsinki.
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Denmark has significantly closed the gap in reaching its 2030 climate targets, according to the government’s annual climate report released this week. The Danish government now estimates that it is just 2%, or 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 reductions, away from achieving its target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 70% by 2030. A year ago the gap was 5.4 million tonnes of emissions.
However, the report cites two absolute gifts that have been a huge help. Researchers at Aarhus University have concluded that there are fewer carbon-rich bogs and wetlands emitting greenhouse gases than initially thought. Of those, most have also degassed much earlier than expected. At the same time, new calculations about how much carbon trees can soak up, combined with far fewer trees being cut down around the country than forecast, also provided a big boost. Together, that equals a whopping 3.4 million tonnes of CO2 emissions taken off the board without any special efforts or new policies.
The report says the electric grid and the district heating will be the first two sectors to not only reach carbon neutrality, but by 2030 they will actually deliver negative emissions.
Also on the plus side are booming electric vehicle sales, with electric cars and trucks flying off car lots in much higher numbers than the government expected. That equals an additional 0.8 million tonnes of CO2 emissions being achieved over what was initially calculated for EV sales.
On the negative side, the Danish government has yet to tackle agricultural emissions in any meaningful way, with the transition there being much slower than the blistering pace being seen in the energy sector. The transition in the transportation sector is also going slowly.
Climate and Energy Minister Lars Aagaard:
“With the new climate projection, we expect that we will meet the 2025 target. At the same time, we are well on our way towards the 2030 target. But it doesn't change the fact that agriculture needs to be restructured, a climate tax is needed, and we do what is necessary in all sectors. There is no time to sit back And remember that the transition does not stop at 2030. We must achieve climate neutrality in 2045 and a 110 percent reduction in 2050 in order to combat the climate crisis. The job ain't done!”
Another problem highlighted by the climate report is waste and recycling. Danes are throwing things out in amounts far exceeding expectations. A high proportion of that garbage is items made from fossil fuels, like plastic. That is increasing demand for waste incinerators, sabotaging hopes of a reduced need and leading to shutting some of them down. The waste and recycling problem alone adds one million tonnes of CO2 emissions back into the mix.
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But while the Danish government says the 2030 climate targets are in sight, Green Power Denmark is cautioning that the path to get there is very uncertain.
Chief Economist Martin Ingerslev:
“The road to the climate goal in 2030 is getting shorter all the time. This is really good news for the climate. But the last kilometers towards the finish line are both uneven and full of hairpin turns. In the coming six years, a focused effort will be needed if we are to succeed.”
Specifically, Green Power Denmark says reaching the 2030 target of a 70% reduction in CO2 emissions hangs almost entirely on carbon capture and storage (CCS). It says billions of kroner will have to be invested in new CCS facilities, the immense logistics of this fledgling industry, and carbon storage sites.
“All investments must be made within a few years, and all facilities must deliver reductions in full from January 1, 2029, if the conditions in the climate projections are to be met.”
A recent CCS tender by the Danish government had extremely underwhelming results, laying bare the immense challenges ahead.
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Politicians in the city of Aarhus, Denmark’s second largest metropolis, have reached a new climate agreement that will see more trees being planted, increasing renewable energy production, and stricter requirements around waste and recycling.
Mayor Jacob Bundsgaard says, among many other things, the agreement includes the creation of 16,000 hectares of new forests and green areas around the municipality.
“It requires that we get good cooperation with those who currently own the land, so that we can take it over or get compensation for switching to nature, forestry, or renewable energy such as solar cells on the land.”
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Denmark has a building and recycling problem. Old homes are being torn down in ever increasing numbers every year in order to build new, even bigger homes. Compounding the impacts to the climate, not many of the materials in the demolished buildings are being recycled and reused.
According to the Aalborg University Department of the Built Environment, 1,100 single family houses are torn down every year, a number that has more than doubled since 2015. In turn, the size of newly built homes has increased by 36% in the last three decades.
Building Materials and Circular Economy Professor Lisbeth Ottosen says those habits are having a detrimental impact on the environment.
“It is as if we in Denmark believe that there is a linear correlation between happiness and the number of square meters we live on. So we build bigger and bigger. We are on the wrong track in terms of what our planet can possibly carry.”
The construction industry as a whole is a giant emitter of harmful greenhouse gases. In Denmark, it accounts for about 30% of all CO2 emissions. A lot of that comes from the production of building materials, especially concrete. Making it worse, less than one percent of materials in demolished buildings are ever recycled.
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Denmark’s Environment Minister is on the hot seat after it was discovered this week that some companies, including a major pesticide maker, have been discharging environmentally hazardous substances into waterways at levels far exceeding current guidelines. The shocker is that they have been doing it legally. In one example, a pesticide company, Cheminova, has been discharging environmentally hazardous waste into the North Sea based on a permit issued in 2006, that has never been updated.
Environment Minister Magnus Heuncike has asked for an investigation into the matter while also admitting he knew about the outdated permit issue.
“The old permits must end, and we must have some new permits based on an updated, tightened basis. The fact that they have been allowed to work for such a long time on an old environmental permit, I believe, is under all criticism.”
An investigation by national broadcaster DR, who reviewed hundreds of internal ministry documents, shows that the ministry had been repeatedly warned over a number of years that it could be illegal to keep allowing the kind of discharge of environmentally nasty substances on permits that should have expired long ago.
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Would you recycle your take away cup or pizza boxes if you could get some money back? The mayors of Denmark’s biggest cities think so. The mayors of Copenhagen, Aarhus, and Odense, have written to Environment Minister Magnus Heunicke, asking that the government put a deposit on take away packaging, like there is on bottles and cans.
Lord Mayor of Copenhagen Sophie Hæstorp Andersen:
“We Danes are really happy to buy takeout, but the packaging does not always end up in the bin or for recycling. If there is a deposit on some of our takeaway cups and boxes, it will be collected and recycled instead of being thrown away or tossed beside roads and in nature areas.”
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Experts believe they have found the culprit behind a massive die off of fish in Vilsted Sø (lake) in Northern Jutland last February. Experts at Vesthimmerland Kommune believe that oxygen levels in the lake reached critically low levels, killing the fish. The conclusion is supported by experts at the Technical University of Denmark.
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Climate change and the environment are the most important issues for voters in Sweden ahead of this year’s EU parliamentary elections. That is according to a new survey conducted by Indikator Opinion for Swedish Radio News. Defense is the second most important topic for Swedes due to the war in Ukraine and the deteriorating security situation in Europe. Trailing behind is the economy.
European parliamentary elections will be held on June 9.
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Have you paid extra to fly in order to offset emissions? Well, the European Union thinks that consumers are being taken for a ride in more ways than one. It has ordered 20 different airlines, including Scandinavian SAS, to address what it called “misleading greenwashing practices.”
In a press release, the EU Commission found that airlines are “creating the incorrect impression that paying an additional fee to finance climate projects with less environmental impact or to support the use of alternative aviation fuels can reduce or fully counterbalance the CO2 emissions.”
The commission says that airlines have “yet to clarify whether such claims can be substantiated based on sound scientific evidence.” It even offered this scathing rebuke of some airlines offering an emissions calculator for flights, saying the airlines are doing so “without providing sufficient scientific proof on whether such calculation is reliable” or even providing any information on what those calculations are based on.
The airlines now have 30 days to "bring their practices in line with EU consumer law” or face further enforcement or sanctions.
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A tale of two energy companies. Danish wind energy giant Vestas has tabled an operating deficit of over half a billion kroner in its latest quarterly fiscal report. However, it may be just a bump in the road as analysts expect the company to sell a lot more wind turbines in the months ahead, with higher activity meaning higher earnings.
Over at Ørsted, the energy company seems to be picking up the pieces after a brutal 2023 where it wrote down huge wind energy projects in the United States and then watched its stock take a bath in the aftermath. In the first three months of the year, the company reported a profit of 2.6 billion Danish kroner. Analysts are bullish on Ørsted’s future, as they project the company to be back on track.
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For the first time in almost three decades, wind turbine electricity generation in the United States has declined. This is despite adding about six gigawatts of new capacity. The International Energy Agency is blaming lower wind speeds for the drop.
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There is some good news for chocolate lovers. Once soaring cocoa bean prices are returning to earth. Cocoa futures in New York have crashed by 30%, returning to territory from roughly a year ago.
🦠Outbreak’s🦠
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The Statens Serum Institute is warning about a salmonella outbreak after 40 people across Denmark got sick in less than a month. 24 men and 16 women of various ages have had salmonella since the first case was confirmed in mid-March. The institute says none of the infected people have been traveling, none have eaten at the same restaurants, nor have they attended the same social events. Considering that there are patients all across the country, the SSI says it is likely due to something sold in grocery stores. It is suggesting that it might be minced meat, but the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has traced the outbreak to smoked salmon products.
The Danish Veterinary and Food Administration’s Annette Perge says people should take precautions regardless.
“We would like consumers to pay extra attention to good kitchen hygiene. It is important to cook meat thoroughly, keep the ready-to-eat food separate from the raw meat, and refrain from tasting the raw meat.”
Salmonella infections cause tiredness, stomach aches, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting , and a fever. In most cases, the symptoms are mild and eventually go away on their own.
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The Danish National Health Agency is warning of an outbreak of fifth disease, sometimes also called slapped cheek disease, around the country. Most adults are immune, as they likely had it when they were younger, but children and pregnant women are vulnerable. The infection is rarely serious, although there are some risks to the unborn child if pregnant women get infected, especially within the first 20 weeks.
The virus presents like a mild flu, but often an infected person will have bright red cheeks, hence the name slapped cheek disease.
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COVID activity, as measured by wastewater surveillance, crept upward (blue line) last week, as did infection-related hospitalizations (green line). The Statens Serum Institute says overall virus activity “is still at a low level.” It continues to add the now usual caveats about “increased uncertainty in the calculations” due to low concentrations in the wastewater and an overall lack of testing.
While COVID hospital admissions did nudge upwards last week, the overall number of respiratory infection hospitalizations remains extremely low.
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In Sweden, the number of COVID hospitalizations (54) has declined (-9) while the number of ICU patients (1) crept upward (+1).
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The Swedish Public Health Agency is dealing with what it calls an unusually high number of mpox infections. The outbreak appears to be in Stockholm, with about ten confirmed infections so far. Men who have sex with other men are most at risk of infection. The health agency is urging people in the risk groups to get vaccinated.
Deputy State Epidemiologist Erik Sturegård:
“As before, we recommend that people with a higher risk of infection get vaccinated against mpox. Vaccination is especially important now that we are seeing an increased spread of infection.”
Typically, an mpox (formerly called monkeypox) infection causes painful blisters and sores all over the body, but most often on the hands, feet, face, and genitals. It is spread through close physical contact with an infected person. It usually heals on its own within two to four weeks.
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Norway continues to see a whooping cough outbreak with the highest infection numbers since 2012. Other than that, the respiratory virus front is very quiet. The Norwegian Institute of Health says the influenza season is over and there are very few coronavirus or RS virus infections.
Across the board, respiratory infection-related hospitalizations have been falling steadily since the middle of February, reaching an admissions level not seen since before the pandemic.
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The European Medicines Agency has recommended that COVID vaccine booster doses be updated to target the globally dominant JN.1 variant for this fall’s vaccination campaigns. Bivalent vaccines currently target the XBB strains.
“The evidence indicates that targeting JN.1 will help maintain the effectiveness of the vaccines as SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve..”
Scientist and infectious disease modeler J.P. Weiland is not a fan of the move, as he says it isn’t getting bivalent vaccine formulations in front of variant evolutions.
“Disappointed we're targeting yesterday's variant. Updating to JN.1 is a lot better than not updating at all, and for that, I'm thankful. I just wish this process could move faster to have a better VE on arrival.”
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As of Thursday, hospitals in the United States are no longer required to report COVID-related admissions, how many beds are occupied by infected patients, and other coronavirus-related data. This will further add to the difficulties in tracking the virus, its evolution, and its societal impacts.
🇺🇦Ukraine/ Russia War🇷🇺
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The United States is accusing Russia of using chemical weapons in Ukraine. Evidence is mounting from the battlefield that Russia has employed chemical weapons, which shouldn’t be terribly surprising as they used them as a matter of course in Syria. The U.S. government says Russia has been using chemical weapons like asphyxiant chloropicrin to make battlefield gains. The chemical causes lung irritation, vomiting, nausea, and diarrhea.
The use of chemical weapons would be a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, of which Russia is a signatory nation.
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Finnish airliner Finnair has now suspended all flights to the Estonian city of Tartu due to Russian GPS jamming. Last weekend, Finnair flights from Helsinki to Tartu couldn’t land and had to return to Helsinki because of GPS interference. The airport in Tartu uses a navigation system that relies on GPS signals for aircraft to land. It is one of the few airports that does not have backup systems.
According to the Finnish Transport and Communications Agency, Traficom, GPS jamming has absolutely exploded since Russia invaded Ukraine. Ten years ago, there were 10 to 20 reports of GPS jamming per year, a number that has already hit 25,000 so far just this year.
Commercial airline pilots use GPS to navigate but can still fly and land the plane using radio signals from the ground. However, it does place greater demands on pilots, especially when landing.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna says safety is absolutely a concern.
“We have to call a spade a spade. In fact, Russia interferes with GPS systems in our airspace. Not only in Estonia, but in the entire region.”
Lithuania’s Foreign Affairs Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis equates it to someone suddenly turning off your car’s headlights while driving at night.
“These hybrid attacks should not be ignored or tolerated.”
Ministers in the Baltic states are taking the issue to both the EU and NATO.
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A majority of parties in the Danish parliament have agreed to use 48 billion Danish kroner (about $9.4 billion Cdn) to revitalize the ‘iron fist’ of the Danish Army. The iron fist is the army’s 1st Brigade. The goal is to build that unit up by 2028 into a heavy brigade of 6,000 soldiers and armour that can deploy for combat at a moment’s notice.
Alongside the heavy brigade, further funding will go towards adding more muscle to land based air defenses, increasing the buildup of anti-submarine capabilities, and the acquisition of more modern maritime missiles.
The agreement also increases the number of conscripts from, 4,700 to 7,500, and as of 2026, will include women for the first time. Conscription in Denmark is largely voluntary, but the new agreement specifies that if there aren’t enough willing bodies joining the armed forces, then people may be forced into military service.
In total, some 190 billion Danish kroner will go to strengthening the military over the next decade.
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The Norwegian Intelligence Service (PST) has taken the unusual step of revealing that it has identified several Russian agents in western Norway. In an interview with Norwegian public broadcaster NRK, the agency said that it is concerned that Russia might be preparing sabotage efforts against critical infrastructure. PST wouldn’t reveal how many Russian agents it has identified, but it did say they are moving around the region and that overall Russian covert activity has increased in Norway since the invasion of Ukraine.
Western Norway is home to Northern Europe’s largest naval base as well as important oil and gas facilities.
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As Norway boosts its defense spending by about seven billion Norwegian kroner (about 870 million Cdn), Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre says this is an absolutely necessary move considering the security situation in Europe.
“It is about dealing more effectively with complex threats in an open economy, where we must strengthen all domains to meet the challenges that lie ahead.”
Norway will use the money to increase its anti-aircraft defenses, train allied troops, and to improve on military buildings and facilities, among other things. The defense boost will push Norway’s defense spending to the NATO target of 2% of GDP.
As part of its huge increase in defense spending, Prime Minister Støre said that Norway will also increase military aid to Ukraine to six billion Norwegian kroner. The funding will go to anti-aircraft defenses and artillery ammunition. Norway will work with Germany, the U.S. and other allies to procure sustained supplies of anti-aircraft missiles for Ukrainian forces.
“Now it's about delivering fairly immediately on this with air defense. We get daily news that Ukrainians are waking up to apartment buildings, hospitals, and power plants being hit by Russian missiles. They must be able to defend themselves against this."
Norway will also join the Czech Republic ammunition coalition to ensure that a steady stream of artillery shells will be purchased and shipped to Ukraine.
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As Russian troops advance in some areas of the front due to burned out Ukrainian troops who have been starved of weapons and ammunition for the better part of six months, the spectre of European troops entering the fight has been raised again. French President Emmanuel Macron, in an interview with The Economist, was adamant that if Russian troops broke through the Ukrainian front line, then it might be necessary to send in French soldiers.
“I do not rule anything out, because we are facing someone who does not rule anything out. We have undoubtedly been too hesitant to define the limits of our efforts towards someone who no longer has any limits.”
This isn’t the first time Macron has raised the idea that European soldiers might have to enter the fight in Ukraine.
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Nordic nations within Nordefco signed a new agreement this week to increase military cohesion between member countries Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland. The agreement seeks to create more cohesion between the nations, including in conducting and commanding joint military operations. It also seeks to allow the movement of military equipment, vehicles, and soldiers, between and through Scandinavian countries with minimal restrictions on movement. The Nordefco countries also agreed on joint defense procurement so that weapons and ammunition between the different militaries would be interchangeable.
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Lithuania’s top leaders say they will help send Ukrainian men “of military age” back to Ukraine as the country faces a significant deficit of soldiers in its desperate battle with Russia. Lithuanian President, Gitanas Nauseda, and Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte told local media that Lithuania can take action to help Ukraine with its mobilization but also added that it must also be discussed at the EU level.
Earlier this month, the Ukrainian parliament passed a new law on mobilization that, among other things, expanded conscription and toughened the punishment for avoiding military service. It also put a stop to consular services at embassies abroad for draft eligible Ukrainian men.
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Latvia has sent Ukraine another weapons package. This one includes German made MANTIS NBS C-RAM short range unmanned air defense systems as well as other “essential material and technical assets.”
Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa says her country’s annual military donations to Ukraine equal 0.25% of its GDP.
“With each shipment, we affirm friendship to the Ukrainian nation and its fight against the aggressor Russia, which is the biggest threat to world peace and security.”
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The U.K. has delivered 50 AS-90 155mm self propelled howitzers to Ukrainian forces. That reportedly constitutes roughly two-thirds of the artillery platforms that Britain has.
The U.K. has also increased its funding for the delivery of military drones to Ukraine from £200 million to £325 million. The British Ministry of Defense says this equates to 10,000 more brand new drones for Ukraine.
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Another disturbing development in Slovakia. The Slovakian government has granted temporary protection to a man accused by the Czech Republic of running a pro-Russian propaganda network. Artem Marchevskyi, a dual Ukrainian Israeli citizen, is accused, along with his close associate Russian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, of spreading disinformation and funding Kremlin friendly EU politicians. Marchevskyi is part of the Voice of Europe investigation, a ‘media’ company that is suspected of being a front for a Russian disinformation operation attempting to interfere in this year’s EU parliamentary elections.
Ukrainian authorities are also reportedly investigating Marchevskyi over suspicions that he is cooperating with Russia.
Slovakia recently elected a pro-Russian Prime Minister who ended all military support for Ukraine on his first day on the job.
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺 🍺
Danish beer giant Carlsberg is finding itself at odds with its former Russian beer subsidiary, called Baltika. After Baltika was taken over by the Russian state, Carlsberg terminated its licensing agreement with Baltika, banning it from selling beer using the Carlsberg license and other trademarked brands. However, it doesn’t look like Baltika is respecting that decision.
Danish national broadcaster DR has learned Baltika, now managed by a friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has used its home field advantage to get the backing of the Russian court system. Several rulings have invalidated Carlsberg’s revoking of its licensing.
Carlsberg's Managing Director Jacob Aarup-Andersen told DR that there are some legal issues that would likely continue for years to come. But he also indicated the company will not respect the decisions of the Russian courts.
“When you look at the decisions that have been made by Russian courts so far, it doesn't quite follow the way we read law. Our focus is on the international and western courts, which are in the countries where we also operate. If there are judgments in Russia that must be executed, then it must be done by Western or international courts. And there, we are very comfortable in relation to where we stand.”
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The U.S. Senate voted unanimously this week to ban imports of enriched uranium from Russia. The legislation extends the prohibition through 2040 unless a temporary waiver is issued by the U.S. Energy Department.
Russia is the leading supplier of enriched uranium to the United States, with some one-billion dollars U.S. flowing back to Russian coffers annually.
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Looming European Parliamentary elections have had an unintended impact, resulting in Ukrainian flags being removed from voting locations. At the Høje-Taastrup City Hall, the Ukrainian flag has been taken down because it is a voting location, according to a Facebook post by Mayor Michael Ziegler.
“If you come by the town hall, you will discover that from today we will no longer fly the Ukrainian flag. The logic is that it can influence voters, since security policy and foreign policy are part of the election campaign.”