Monday Morning News & Notes
Goodbye neutrality, hello NATO. Warnings of a possible new COVID wave in Europe
Editors note - I take a lot of pride in this newsletter and I try to keep pushing it out on schedule but sometimes, like last week, life intervenes. Putting this together takes a lot of time. After this week, between my actual job and having friends from Canada coming to visit I won’t have a lot of time. So for the next three weeks things will become a little sporadic. My apologies. Thanks for reading and thanks for your understanding. Shane
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🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
It is official. Finland will apply to become a NATO member country ending decades of traditional neutrality.
Last week, a report on Finland’s security concluded that applying to join NATO would be the best course of action to protect the country and provide security for its citizens after Russia invaded Ukraine. At the time. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that Russia was not the neighbour they had thought it was. On Sunday, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin held a press conference to announce that Finland will apply to join NATO.
Prime Minister Sanna Marin:
“I believe that NATO membership is the best solution for maintaining Finland's security and the stability of our neighboring areas in the changed security policy situation. That is why we should apply for NATO membership, without delay.”
Foreign Affairs Minister Pekka Haavisto:
“By joining NATO Finland will strengthen its own security and that of all of Europe. We are making this historic decision for future generations.”
Finland’s Minister of Defense Antti Kaikkonen:
“The groundwork is now complete. Security has been provided so that the conditions for decision-making exist. Now we are ready. We are embarking on a journey towards Finland's NATO membership.”
Officials at the Sunday press conference said an application to join NATO would be filed in the next two or three days. This would seem to confirm reports by several media outlets in Sweden and Finland that both countries would file an application simultaneously on May 18.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone on Saturday “in a call initiated by Finland.” In a read out of the conversation released by the Finnish president’s office it said that Niinistö told Putin how fundamentally Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the security situation for Finland. The Finnish President then relayed that his country would likely be joining NATO and “Finland wants to take care of the practical questions arising from being a neighbour of Russia in a correct and professional manner.”
“The conversation was direct and straight-forward, and it was conducted without aggravations. Avoiding tensions was considered important.”
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Russia stopped all electricity imports to Finland over the weekend. It cited a billing problem as the reason, but the timing around Finland’s inevitable move to join NATO is more than a little suspicious. Russia supplies about 10% of Finland’s electricity supply. Fingrid, Finland’s power systems company, says this won’t be a problem.
Fingrid Senior Vice President Reima Päivinen:
“The lack of electricity imports from Russia will be compensated by importing more electricity from Sweden and by generating more electricity in Finland.”
Fingrid says efforts to make Finland energy self-sufficient are “constantly improving” and in particular major improvements are being made on the wind energy front.
“This year alone, an additional 2000 megawatts of new wind power is expected to come online. Finland is expected to become self-sufficient in electrical energy by 2023.”
🇸🇪/ 🇷🇺
The other shoe took no time in falling in Sweden. On Sunday night, the Swedish Social Democratic Party (Socialdemokraternas) revealed that it believes Sweden should also work towards applying to join NATO and leave behind its long history of neutrality. The governing party is the last major party in the Swedish parliament to take a pro-NATO stance removing any obstacles left to apply for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The party, in a press release announcing the decision, also said it is opposed to any deployment of nuclear weapons on Swedish soil and it is also against any permanent NATO bases on Swedish soil.
Sweden’s Foreign Affairs Minister Ann Linde took to Twitter to respond to her party’s new stance.
🇫🇮 🇸🇪/ 🇬🇧
Last week, United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson flew to both Stockholm and Helsinki to sign joint security agreements with both countries. In Sweden, Johnson said the agreement specifies a mutual security arrangement with Sweden and the UK coming to the aid of the other country should they be attacked.
Finnish President Sauli Niinistö
“We signed a joint statement. We will stand together and support each other in any circumstances, in good and bad weather.”
Niinistö was asked how he thought Russia might respond to Finland joining NATO.
“My response [to Russia] would be that you caused this, look in the mirror.”
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
Despite being told he wasn’t welcome on the island Russia’s Ambassador to Denmark showed up on Bornholm last week to lay a wreath at the monument to Russian soldiers who were killed on the island in World War II. DR had a reporter on scene who described the visit as a very quick affair, with the ambassador arriving, laying a wreath, and quickly leaving. Politicians on Bornholm had told the ambassador he was not welcome on the island this year due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Island resident Jens Voigt spoke to DR:
“I believe that the Russians should let it go and let the tradition pass this year and probably for several years to come. I fear it may cause trouble, because the war in Ukraine will overshadow that they come to honor their fallen soldiers.”
The monument to Russia’s war dead on Bornholm was also vandalized when someone painted it in the blue and yellow colours of Ukraine.
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The Danish Sports Federation has some choice words for the International Olympic Committee. The federation is less than thrilled with a deafening silence from the IOC on sanctioning Russia, and specifically Russian members of the IOC.
Chair Hans Natorp:
“I am proud of how we from the Danish sports side have stood strong in the exclusion of Russia. But I am somewhat disappointed that the IOC has not been quite as consistent. At the leadership level, four Russians remain active on the International Olympic Committee. Of course, they should also be excluded. We have to continue to have a communication channel for the Russians, but we simply can not accept that they sit as equal members in the given situation.”
Natorp says in most situations such harsh action should be a last resort, but when one country illegally invades another then “total condemnation and exclusion is necessary.”
He says this should include a complete ban on all Russian athletes from competing in all Olympic events, no exceptions. In the recent past, the IOC has censured Russia by allowing Russia athletes to compete in Olympic events, just not under the Russia flag and without Russian uniforms.
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
The Danish Red Cross has opened a hotline for Ukrainian refugees who need some help navigating Denmark’s healthcare system. The hotline called ‘Red Cross Ready’ is staffed with volunteers who can help them with things like booking doctors appointments and other challenges related to the health system. The initiative was originally started by health professionals, but demand soon swamped their ability to respond and the Red Cross was asked to step in and help.
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A majority of parties in the Danish parliament have agreed that seniors and other pensioners, including teachers and others who take an early pension, will not be punished financially if they take a job that helps Ukrainian refugees. The deal would ensure that any earnings in such a job would not be counted against their existing pension benefits. It also covers any monies made by a pensioners spouse or partner working a similar job helping refugees. The agreement is retroactive to April 1, 2022.
🇩🇪/ 🇺🇦
Germany will soon begin handing over the first shipments of heavy weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces. An unspecified number of German 155 mm self-propelled howitzers will be the first to arrive.
Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba recently paid a visit to Berlin bringing with him Ukrainian troops to begin training on German howitzers.
“This will be the first heavy weapon that Germany will hand over to Ukraine. Coming soon. And these self-propelled howitzers will smash the enemy who stepped on our land. Therefore, a precedent has been set, the first psychological barrier has been overcome.”
Kubela said discussions are also underway with German officials about the next shipment of weapons.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇪🇺🦠
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control is sounding a warning that another infection wave could roll across Europe due to two new Omicron sub-variants. It has becomes the first health agency to reclassify BA.4 and BA.5 as ‘variants of concern.’
The two new variants were first detected in South Africa in January and since have become the dominant strains they’re driving infection surges. Here in Europe, the ECDC notes that in Portugal BA.5 is seeing significant growth accounting for about 37% of all sequenced positive test results. The EU health agency says BA.5 has a 13% growth advantage over the already hyper-infectious BA.2. Factoring in that increased infection rate, the ECDC is forecasting that BA.5 will become the dominant coronavirus strain in Portugal by May 22.
The ECDC says the increased growth rate of the BA.5 variant is likely due to an increased ability to evade immune protection from prior infection or vaccination, especially if that protection has waned over time. The agency warns that people who are unvaccinated, even if they have had a previous infection, are unlikely to have much protection against infection from either BA.4 or BA.5. While those who have been vaccinated fared much better in avoiding symptomatic infections.
“Taken together, this indicates that the presence of these variants could cause a significant overall increase in COVID cases in the EU/EEA in the coming weeks and months. As in previous waves, if COVID case numbers increase substantially, some level of increased hospital and ICU admissions is likely to follow.”
The ECDC is urging people to get vaccinated and for countries to continue to test at levels that allow for COVID surveillance of the two new variants.
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The once towering Omicron-driven infection wave continues to recede across Europe. The latest weekly pandemic assessment from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control finds that COVID infections are still declining both overall and among seniors 65 years old and older. This is with the caveat that plummeting testing numbers make COVID case counts very unreliable as a pandemic barometer. The ECDC says while overall numbers are dropping, four EU countries have reported rising infection numbers among seniors.
Of the 27 countries reporting hospitalization and ICU admissions, just one registered rising numbers in one or both of those categories.
The 14 day pandemic death rate per million population has declined for a fourth straight week across Europe, down from 19.9 to 16.2 from one week to the next.
On the vaccination front, 72.6% of the total EU population has two vaccine doses while 51.7% have had a booster dose.
The Omicron sub-variant BA.2 remains king across Europe, accounting for 95.1% of all sequenced positive test results. BA.1 covered 1.4%, B.3 and B.4 were each 0.3%, while BA.5 made up 0.2%.
The ECDC is anticipating that infection numbers, hospitalizations, and pandemic deaths will continue to fall for at least the next two weeks. Although it adds the usual low testing caveat “all current forecasts, in particular case forecasts, should be treated with caution.”
🇩🇰
Denmark’s COVID contact number has crept upward from 0.7 last week to 0.8 this week, according to Health Minister Magnus Heunicke. The minister says this is still a “clear indication” of a declining epidemic.
Heunicke says COVID wastewater testing back up his claim of a declining epidemic with decreasing coronavirus activity seen across all five Danish regions.
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The Omicron sub-variant remains king in Denmark, accounting for 99% of all sequenced positive tests in week 17.
Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke says health officials remain vigilant for new and emerging COVID variants. Heunicke says they are also keeping a close eye on the growth rate of all existing strains identified as being in Denmark. He says three relatively new variants, which are driving rising infection numbers in the United States and South Africa, are “currently not considered a concern” in Denmark. They are BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5. Heunicke says BA.4 and 5 are considered to be as infectious as BA.2, but all three strains have seen limited growth.
Of the three, BA.2.12.1 has increased its share of coronavirus cases, but only slightly as it accounts for 1.5% of all cases. That is up from 0.74% the week prior.
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Denmark’s COVID numbers, both those reliable and those less so, continue to indicate a steadily improving pandemic situation.
Hospitalizations related to infections dropped by another 22% last week. Seniors aged 70 to 89 years old continue to make up the largest group of new admissions. That said, hospitalizations decreased overall across all age groups except those 19 years old and younger and 50 to 59 year olds. Intensive care admissions also edged down last week, with eight admissions, two fewer than the week before. Lastly, the proportion of hospital admissions directly because of an infection, as opposed to being admitted for some other reason while having an infection, fell slightly to 45% in week 16.
COVID fatalities also continue to drop, with 55 lives lost last week, which is down from the 78 deaths the week before.
As for the less reliable pandemic barometers, the number of new infections declined by 17% last week. The positivity percentage treaded water from one week to the next staying at 12%. The number of PCR tests administered also continued to drop, falling by another 37% last week, a drop of about 8,000 tests week to week.
The COVID incidence rate is highest in Region Sjælland and in the capital region (107 per 100,000 people). The incidence rate is also dropping across all five regions.
Looking at the numbers by age, the COVID incidence rate is declining across all age groups. But it remains highest among older people 50 years old and older. The highest positivity percentage (15%) s among seniors 70 to 79 years old, while the lowest (6%) is among those 20 to 24 years old. Infections among nursing home residents dropped from 182 to 99 from week to week. Fatalities among seniors in care were unchanged, with 21 in each of the last two weeks.
The Staten Serum Institute is expecting that COVID rates will continue fall “in the coming weeks.” Along with them, the SSI anticipates hospitalizations and coronavirus deaths will also keep declining.
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COVID hospitalizations (417) nudged upward (+17) while the number of severe infection cases in an ICU (13) also crept upward (+2) and of those the number on a ventilator (6) also increased (+3). The number of infection-related admissions to a psychiatric ward (118) also inched upward (+2).
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Denmark reported 488 infections (underreported), including 36 reinfections, and another two coronavirus deaths in Sunday’s report.
There were 5,035 PCR tests taken on Saturday equaling a positivity percentage of 9.69%.
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As of today, Denmark is suspending its national COVID vaccination program. This does not mean you cannot get vaccinated as vaccination centers will remain open. What it means is that the Staten Serum Institute will no longer send out vaccination invitations or reminder letters to those who haven’t gotten their shots.
Total vaccination numbers remain largely static, with 82% of the total population with one vaccine dose, 80.6% having two, and 61.6% having a booster dose.
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As testing numbers continue to plummet, Region Nordjylland is reducing the number of its PCR testing facilities from 11 down to five. The region says testing sites in Brønderslev, Brovst, Støvring, Aars, Nykøbing Mors, and on Læsø have been closed as of Sunday (yesterday).
Chief Consultant in Health Planning Anders Cinicola:
“You only have to get a COVID test if you are ill, and therefore we do not experience the same need for testing as before. As a result, we are now downsizing the test capacity, but we continue to ensure that there are still testing opportunities for northern Jutlanders.”
The PCR testing sites in Aalborg, Hjørring, Thisted, Frederikshavn, and Hobro will remain open. However, the region says the hours at the five remaining testing sites will also undergo a change as of Monday (today).
People who need to get a test must still book an appointment at coronaprover.dk
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Denmark’s late influenza resurgence continues to see numbers decline sharply. Hand in hand with that is a steady drop in hospital admissions due to the seasonal flu.
🇸🇪
Sweden updates its pandemic statistics just once a week every Thursday.
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One of the two new Omicron sub-variants has arrived in Sweden. The Swedish Public Health Agency is confirming that “the first cases” of BA.4 have been confirmed in sequenced positive test results taken in week 17. The agency does not provide an exact number of BA.4 cases found. The agency says “there are no reports that BA.4 gives a different disease picture than BA.2” and the variant “is currently not counted as a virus variant of special significance (VOC), and is therefore not reported in the Swedish Public Health Agency's weekly statistics.” It is worth noting that, as reported in this edition of Informeret, that the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control does in fact now classify BA.4 and BA.5 as “variants of concern.”
Department Head Sara Byfors:
“Since the BA.4 variant has already been proven to be in several European countries, it was expected that we would also find it in Sweden. And just as with other variants of SARS-CoV-2, we will be able to follow how BA.4 is spread in Sweden through our monitoring. The same basic measures apply to BA.4 as to other variants, vaccinate yourself according to our recommendations and stay at home if you are ill.”
Sweden no longer provides access to COVID testing for the general public and restricts testing to seniors in care and those being admitted to hospital. So it’s monitoring program is fairly limited.
Overall, the agency says confirmed COVID cases dropped by 16% in week 18, with just over 1,950 infections. 19,800 COVID tests were administered that week equaling a positivity percentage of about 10%, which is also down week over week.
Hospitalizations continue to drop as they have steadily done since week 8. The agency says there were six new intensive care admissions in week 18. But deaths remain high, with another 67 COVID fatalities in week 16. That is a number that will likely increase as Sweden continues to struggle, as it has for months, with a backlog of processing pandemic fatalities. In its latest weekly snapshot it refers to the backlog as “a certain delay” in the statistics.
On the vaccination front, 65% of those 18 years old and older have two vaccine doses and a booster. Of those, who are 80 years old and older, 72% have three doses and a second booster. For those eligible between the ages of 65 to 79, 52% have had a second booster dose.
🇳🇴
Norway’s once-towering Omicron-driven infection wave continues to recede, according to the latest pandemic snapshot from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.
The number of COVID hospitalizations continues to steadily decline. There were 62 new admissions in week 18, down from 79 the week previous. Seniors 75 years old and older continue to make up the highest number of new admissions. As for intensive care numbers, there were five new ICU admissions in the same week, a drop from nine the week before.
There were 37 COVID fatalities in week 18, down sharply from the 70 of the week prior. The median age of those who died due to a COVID infection in the last week was 84. 59% of those coronavirus deaths occurred in a health institution other than a hospital, primarily a senior care home.
After steady declines since week 8, there was a slight increase in the number of PCR-positive test results in week18, even as overall testing numbers fell. But infection-related visits to a family doctor or emergency room, have continued to decline.
Like elsewhere in Europe, Omicron continues to be the dominant variant in Norway, specifically the BA.2 sub-strain, which accounted for about 100% of all sequenced positive test results. The NIPH says it has confirmed one case of the new BA.5 variant.
Norway’s national health agency says while the infection wave ebbs it is decreasing at a slower rate, as was seen in March and April. It says vulnerable populations, mainly elderly seniors and the unvaccinated, continue to be impacted the most by current infection spread.
“The COVID pandemic is still ongoing. There is still a need for monitoring, preparedness, and plans to meet any changes in the situation. There is still a risk of new infection waves with Omicron-like variants or with completely new, more virulent variants that may also escape today's vaccines. The municipalities must follow the situation and be vigilant for the aggravation of the epidemic, and the health institutions must be prepared for handling any outbreaks.”
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Norway’s influenza wave is also receding after an unusually late resurgence. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health says flu numbers peaked in week 14 and have fallen ever since. In the last four weeks, the positivity percentage has tumbled from 17% down to 10.9%.
Overall, hospitalizations due to a respiratory infection continue to decrease, going from 1,408 to 1,014 from one week to the next. Of those, coronavirus and influenza infections, each account for 17% of respiratory illness-related hospital admissions.
🇫🇮
Finland updates its COVID statistics once a week every Thursday.
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The resurgent influenza infection wave has arrived in Finland. The Finnish Institute for Health says seasonal flu cases have “increased significantly” and have been nearly doubling each week since early April.
Leading Expert Niina Ikonen:
“It has been mainly the influenza A (H3N2) strain. Studies in Europe have estimated that this season's influenza vaccine is moderately effective against the influenza A (H3N2) virus. In Finland, the protective efficacy of the vaccine has not yet been reliably calculated because there have been so few laboratory-confirmed influenza findings.”
The institute says the late arrival of the influenza wave is also impacting flu vaccine efficacy due to waning protection.
The health agency recommends antiviral therapies, if caught early, for flu infections among seniors and at risk groups.
A record 1.9 million flu shots were administered in Finland this winter. However, vaccination rates among young children remain low, with about a third of kids under the age of seven getting a flu shot. Roughly a third of seniors over the age of 65 were also inoculated.
“There are still flu vaccines left and the vaccine can still be taken if it has not been received during this epidemic period. Vaccination is especially recommended for the elderly and those at risk.”
🇪🇺🦠 ✈️
As of today, face masks are no longer required in European airports or on flights within Europe. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control made the announcement last week.
EASA Executive Director Patrick Ky:
“For passengers and air crews, this is a big step forward in the normalisation of air travel. It is a relief to all of us that we are finally reaching a stage in the pandemic where we can start to relax the health safety measures. Passengers should, however, behave responsibly and respect the choices of others around them."
While masks will no longer be mandated the ECDC is emphasizing they are still one of the best ways to protect yourself from a coronavirus infection.
ECDC Director Andrea Ammon:
“While risks do remain, we have seen that non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccines have allowed our lives to begin to return to normal. It is important to be mindful that together with physical distancing and good hand hygiene, [mask-wearing] is one of the best methods of reducing transmission."
Both agencies also encourage vulnerable populations, especially seniors and those who are immunocompromised, to keep wearing a face mask when flying.
Some airlines may still enforce a mask mandate on their own, as will international flights outside the European Union.
🇺🇸
The United States has become the first country on earth to surpass 1,000,000 reported COVID deaths. That means the pandemic has taken more American lives than WWII (405,399), the Vietnam war (58,220), and the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic (675,000).
American President Joe Biden ordered flags flown at half-mast to mark the horrific pandemic milestone.
For context, it is worth remembering that several studies of excess mortality, including most recently from the World Health Organization, found that ‘reported deaths’ are likely much lower than the ‘real’ coronavirus death toll.
🇨🇦
COVID Hospitalizations across Canada continue to rise. In the latest numbers from the Public Health Agency of Canada for the week ending April 25, the total number of hospital beds used by a coronavirus patients increased by 343 to 7,351 total beds. As for those in general admissions, the number of occupied beds jumped from 6,550 to 6,891. As for those in intensive care, numbers crept upward by two for 460 total ICU beds in use. The only number to buck the trend was the number of patients on a ventilator, which dropped by six to 188.
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So far the Canadian vaccination effort has administered 33,135,817 1st vaccine doses (86.66% of the total population) while 31,320,922 (81.91%) have a second dose, and of those, 19,707,665 people are fully vaccinated with three doses.
