The Evening Report - March 14
Climate alarm bells. Denmark increases defense spending, again.
*Editor’s Note - Apologies for the lack of publishing over the last week. A nasty bug sweeping through the family and a ski vacation in Finland threw me offline for a bit. We now resume regularly scheduled programming. Thanks for your patience.*
🍃Environment & Energy⚡️
🌍 🥵
February was the hottest on record, making it the ninth consecutive month to see temperatures hit record highs. It was also the eighth month in a row with a temperature of more than 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level, covering the period from 1850 to 1900. European Climate Change Service Copernicus says the global mean temperature last month was 13.54 degrees, making it the warmest February on record. The ten hottest February months on record have all occurred since 2010.
Scottish Meteorologist Scott Duncan called temperatures across Europe last month “truly outlandish.”
“Some places in Europe didn't just record their warmest February on record they went on to beat their warmest MARCH temperature levels. Austria has over 250 years of temperature record and nothing compares to this. Not even close.”
It wasn’t just the air temperature, February also saw the highest global sea temperature ever recorded at 21.06 degrees. In addition, greenhouse gas emissions hit 423 parts per million in February, a record high level.
All of this is a giant red flag for Danish Climate Professor Sebastian Mernild:
“In addition to the fact that we are seeing a new record for the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, it is both worrying and remarkable that the increase we have been able to register in the past year is the largest annual increase we have seen. The concentrations of CO2 we see today of over 420 ppm are far above the natural variations that lie between 180 and 280 ppm between the Ice Age and the Interglacial, which is the period we are in now. According to the IPPC, we are today at a level we have not seen in two million years. An imbalance has been created, and thus the rising temperatures and more extreme weather we are seeing.”
🇪🇺
The European Union has adopted a new directive aimed at making housing and commercial buildings more energy-efficient and ensuring a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. According to the EU Commission, commercial and residential buildings account for up to 40% of all energy consumption within the Bloc. Specifically, the directive states that member countries must reduce energy consumption among their residential and commercial building stock by 16% by 2030 and then by 22% by 2035. It also requires that all new buildings must be carbon neutral by 2030 and that member states must renovate more than 25% of older buildings. Heritage and agricultural buildings are exempt.
🇩🇰🇪🇺
“There has clearly been a glaring lack of political will to do something serious about air pollution.”
Reaction from Denmark to the latest EU emissions requirements for vehicles is decidedly negative. Emissions for cars remain more or less the same with some new requirements for particulate emissions from tires and disc brakes. Emission limits have been lowered on bigger vehicles like buses and commercial trucks.
Head of Transport Policy at the Council for Green Transition Jeppe Juul told DR that the changes “deliver virtually no improvement.”
“It has been a long journey for the car industry and the legislators to make diesel cars in particular, but also gas cars more and more environmentally friendly. It is disappointing for consumers that this opportunity to tighten up the requirements for cars is missed until they are banned in 2035.”
The EU has set a goal of phasing out the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles by 2035. But the concern is the continued emissions for every gasoline or diesel vehicle bought up until that point.
Juul points out that air pollution contributes to 300,000 deaths every year across Europe with the transportation sector being the primary emissions culprit.
“After all, this means that there are Europeans who needlessly die prematurely because we actually have the opportunity to technically reduce this air pollution. There has been no political will for that, and it is a shame because it means many more premature deaths in Europe than is necessary.”
🇩🇰
The Danish government has been told to use its muscle to force some people from using gas boilers in their homes. Nekst, the National Energy Crisis Team, says there are between 20,000 to 40,000 homes in areas where district heating is available that use gas boilers instead. In those cases, it says the use of boilers makes no sense.
Danish Climate, Energy, and Supply Minister Lars Aagaard is now mulling the report although he has some reservations.
“It can also be very intrusive towards the individual gas customer. Therefore, it would have to be done in a proper way, so that the homeowners are notified in good time.”
Denmark is on a mission to reduce the number of homes using gas boilers as part of its transition to renewable energy.
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This is the way. The Danish island of Mandø has received official certification as a ‘Dark Sky destination’. This certified the island as a place with minimal light pollution. The island is hoping that this will add another dimension to its efforts to attract more tourists. The island, with about 30 permanent residents, is visited by over 80,000 tourists annually.
Owner of Mandøpigens Ferielejligheider, and member of the island’s community council, Karin Fredskild:
“This can strengthen the island's tourism because when the tourists who are going to come and see the starry night, they will also need a place to sleep afterwards.”
🇸🇪
It is being called a massive undertaking as a four-year project is underway in Sweden to save ten endangered species. The list includes several species of butterflies, the Arctic Fox, and hedgehogs. 21.5 million Swedish kroner in funding (about $2.8 million Cdn) has been given to the Swedish World Wildlife Fund and Norden’s Ark, a Swedish wildlife foundation, to fund the project.
While the WWF welcomes the funding it is also emphasizing that more help from the Swedish government is needed along with a long-term strategy to deal with endangered species.
In August, a hedgehog count will be held across Sweden. The public will be asked to help by reporting any hedgehog sightings.
🇬🇱🇳🇴🇺🇳
While Norway opens the door to deep-sea mining in its territorial waters neighbouring Greenland is not so keen on the idea. Greenland's Minister of Mineral Resources Naaja Nathanielsen says her country supports a pause on deep-sea mining for “precautionary reasons.”
“We are a country that lives off the sea's resources and is dependent on a clean marine environment. That is why we support a precautionary pause.”
Currently, Greenland does not have any legislation against deep-sea mining.
The United Nations has proposed a two-year precautionary pause on deep-sea mining in order to finalize international rules and regulations around the extraction of minerals from the sea floor.
🇸🇪 🇩🇰 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 🇪🇪
A glimmer of good news for the Baltic Sea. Researchers efforts have found evidence that Baltic waters, which have been suffering from oxygen depletion for years, are now showing more oxygen in the water for the first time since 2014. Researchers say that extreme weather-driven storm activity has infused sea-water with more oxygen, which is providing some short-term help. However, they also note this is temporary help at best with expectations that the oxygen will soon be used up and the original problem will reassert itself.
Oxygen-depleted waters are deadly for invertebrate species and make the sea environment unlivable for fish and other sea life.
🇵🇹
Election results in Portugal could point to troubled waters ahead for Europe’s green energy transition. This year the EU will hold elections to select a new parliament and EU Commission. This week Portugal, one of Europe’s most left-leaning countries and biggest supporters of the green energy transition, turned sharply to the right, potentially a sign of things to come in this June’s EU elections.
With the extreme right Chaga party garnering 18% of the vote Portugal seems headed for a minority government and one of the most fragmented parliaments in the country’s history. The Chaga party has run on “energy sovereignty” with a pledge to review international energy agreements and to build more nuclear reactors.
🦠Outbreaks🦠
Measles
The World Health Organization is raising the alarm over a global resurgence of measles.
WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says no child should die from a vaccine-preventable disease.
“Globally, measles is skyrocketing and children are dying needlessly. Last year, reported cases of measles jumped almost 80% from 2022 with large outbreaks in 51 countries. Cases and deaths are only expected to increase this year. And yet measles does not receive nearly enough attention. Many millions of children remain unprotected, most living in low and middle-income countries.”
The WHO says measles vaccination needs to be included in basic vaccination campaigns around the world. It would also like more attention given to middle-income countries where vaccination funding is lacking. The agency says a measles vaccination patch is a game changer and it needs the same research and production attention as other vaccination efforts targeting other high-profile diseases.
🇪🇺
Since COVID restrictions came to an end there has been a troubling surge of sexually transmitted diseases across Europe. That is according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, which is urging prevention measures, more testing, and increased treatment to address the public health challenge.
The ECDC says in 2022 gonorrhea cases rose by 48%, syphilis cases were up by 34%, and chlamydia cases increased by 16%.
ECDC Director Andrea Ammon says she is deeply concerned.
“Addressing the substantial increases in STI cases demands urgent attention and concerted efforts. Testing, treatment, and prevention lie at the heart of any long-term strategy. We must prioritize sexual health education, expand access to testing, and treatment services, and combat the stigma associated with STIs. Education and awareness initiatives are vital in empowering individuals to make informed choices about their sexual health. Promoting consistent condom use and fostering open dialogue about STIs can help reduce transmission rates."
The agency says some STIs can be be asymptomatic meaning an infected person might be oblivious underscoring the need for people engaging in unprotected sex to regularly get tested. Anyone testing positive for an STI should seek immediate medical advice. Some venereal diseases can lead to serious health issues if left untreated.
🇩🇰
COVID activity (blue line) continues to drop across Denmark and is now at a “low level” according to wastewater surveillance results. However, the Statens Serum Institute cautions that accurately calculating overall coronavirus growth rates continues to be an uncertain game.
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While the overall number of hospital admissions continues to decline across the board influenza still accounts for the most respiratory infection patients being admitted.
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Researchers and ornithologists are examining whether the feeding of wild birds is behind an unusually high number of Psittacosis cases, or Parrot disease, in Denmark. That is according to the Danish Ornithological Association. From December until mid-January, there have been 23 recorded infections and four deaths.
The bacterial infection, passed from birds to humans, often presents as a mild illness with flu-like symptoms but it can also cause severe pneumonia. According to the Statens Serum Institute, no new infection cases have been registered since February 25.
🇸🇪
In Sweden, COVID hospitalizations (94) continue to drop (-14) while the number of severely infected people requiring intensive care (2) is unchanged week to week.
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Two years ago the Swedish Public Health Agency reported a breach of its national vaccination registry to police after information on hundreds of children vaccinated against COVID showed up on an anti-vaxxer website. Now the agency believes the entire registry, containing the information of over seven million vaccinated people, has been leaked. Police suspect an IT consultant and vaccine skeptic of being behind the leak. He has been charged with breaching confidentiality laws but denies the accusations.
🇳🇴
Other than one fly in the ointment the respiratory virus infection picture continues to improve across Norway. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health says the winter influenza season appears to be coming to an end, COVID numbers are vastly diminished, and RS virus cases continue to decrease. The one remaining problem is that rhinovirus infection cases are on the rise something the institute says is normal for this time of year. Whooping cough infections have also risen slightly.
The NIPH says influenza indicators have fallen below the national outbreak threshold. Flu-related hospital admissions last week (110) have fallen (-96) week to week.
RS virus infections have been decreasing for five consecutive weeks now. Infection-related hospitalizations (120) have also ebbed (-16) from one week to the next.
There were just 36 COVID-related hospital admissions last week, which is 13 fewer than the week before. The NIPH says in previous winters there has been an upsurge in coronavirus infections during March. However, it says “there are no signs of new waves of infection in the near future.”
🇨🇦
COVID hospitalizations continue to drop across Canada. Inge the week ending March 5, the total number of beds in use by an infected patient eased from 2,254 to 2,171. Of those, general admissions saw 78 fewer coronavirus-related patients week to week for 2,077 in total. While the number of intensive care cases declined by 5 to 94. The number of severely infected people requiring a ventilator remains unchanged at 73.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇪🇺🇺🇦
The European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell is warning that things may come to a head in Ukraine by this spring or summer. Military analysts expect Russia to launch an all-out offensive ahead of the U.S. Presidential elections as it seeks to take advantage of MAGA Republicans stalling American military funding for Ukraine.
Borrell says Ukraine needs even more support and things cannot afford to wait for the outcome of November’s U.S. Presidential elections.
🇩🇰
Less than a year after announcing a historic increase in defense spending the Danish government is again dramatically increasing military spending. Defense spending will rise by another 40.5 billion Danish kroner (about $8 billion Cdn) over the next four years.
Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen:
“The security situation has worsened since we entered into the agreement on a new defense settlement in June of 2023. Russia is preparing for a protracted war, and exhibits continued aggressive behavior that within a few years could pose a potential threat to NATO countries. Therefore, we must advance the investments in a number of powerful and in-demand military capacities, so that we can contribute them as soon as possible as part of NATO's overall defense..”
Specifically, the monies will fund an increase in manpower for the Danish Armed Forces. Annually, conscription will be increased to 5,000 people, a return to levels seen prior to 2012. Conscription will also be equalized, although specifics haven’t been revealed, allowing for more women to join the ranks. The term of military service for conscripts will also increase to eleven months, up from the current four.
The army has been tasked to increase its 1st Brigade to 6,000 highly trained and ready-to-be deployed soldiers by 2028.
New short and long-range ground-to-air defense systems will be purchased to improve Denmark’s defenses against attacks from the air.
Funding will also go to adding new armoured vehicles for the Danish light infantry battalion stationed in Haderslev.
The money will also build up Denmark’s anti-submarine capabilities to better detect, locate, and combat enemy submarines. New high-tech torpedos will be acquired complete with necessary upgrades to fire control systems on all Absalon class frigates. This will be completed by 2029.
Money will also go to what the Defense Ministry calls “battle-decisive ammunition”. This will include upgrading air defense missiles for ships across the Danish Navy so they are better able to defend against incoming missiles and enemy drones.
And another 4.4 billion Danish kroner will also go to the special Ukraine fund to pay for future weapons donations.
The increase in spending boosts Denmark’s defense budget to 2.4% of its GDP according to the government.
🇩🇰🇺🇦
A 16th weapons package is headed from Denmark to Ukraine. Earlier this week the Danish government announced it is sending Ukraine, among other things, more CAESAR artillery platforms, artillery ammunition, and 120 mm mortar rounds. Denmark is working with France on the donation of the French-manufactured CAESAR artillery platforms. It is also collaborating with Estonia and the Czech Republic on the donation of desperately needed artillery shells.
This latest weapons package is valued at 2.3 billion Danish kroner (about $454 million Cdn). Denmark is funding this latest donation from its special Ukraine fund set aside to ensure long-term donations to Ukraine. .
Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen:
“Artillery and mortar systems are in great demand by Ukraine. With this donation package, we are delivering a substantial contribution to the Ukrainian struggle for freedom in the form of both additional CAESAR artillery systems and accompanying ammunition. The donations are made in cooperation with our allies and send an important signal that we stand behind Ukraine. Their fight for freedom is also Europe's fight, and we cannot afford to let the Ukrainians down now. We must and must continue our support, which is absolutely decisive for the outcome of the war”
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Denmark’s Minister of Defense is concerned about delivery delays for new F-35 fighter jets that the country has on order. Denmark has ordered 27 of the next-generation warplanes but only has seven in its possession. Of those, only four are on Danish soil and being integrated into the Danish Air Force. The remaining three are at a U.S. Air Force base in Arizona where Danish pilots are being trained to fly them.
Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen:
“There is still uncertainty about the delivery of the next F-35 fighter jets. It is too early to say what this will mean, but I have asked the Danish Defense Forces to look at possible initiatives that can counter the delay.”
Lockheed Martin has already delayed the next delivery of F-35s to Denmark until at least July of this year but in doing so cautioned there is the risk of even further delays.
The Danish Armed Forces are looking at several options including asking neighbouring allies if they can either buy or borrow F-35s from them.
“I have asked the Armed Forces to prepare a number of proposed solutions that can be used as a basis for a comprehensive solution that we can discuss and decide on. The F-35 fighter jets are a major investment for Denmark, which will be important for our defense and security for many years to come. It is crucial that we follow the case closely.”
The ministry takes pains to note that the situation “is not expected to affect the donation of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine.” However, with the heightened security threat posed by Russia it doesn’t seem likely Denmark would simply give away the bulk of its Air Force of aging F-16s without having F-35s to replace them.
Denmark and the Netherlands have jointly pledged to donate up to 61 F-16s to Ukraine. Denmark has about 43 F-16 fighter jets in its fleet although not all of them are operational. It has already delayed delivery of the first F-16s to Ukraine by six months with the first planes now due to arrive by this summer.
🇩🇰/🇷🇺
Denmark’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is warning that Danish citizens who are in Russia should avoid large gatherings in Moscow. It cautions that there is an increased risk of attacks on large crowds and concerts and such gatherings should be avoided.
Denmark has advised against all travel to Russia since the war in Ukraine began.
🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇵🇱
The leaders of France, Germany, and Poland will meet on Friday for urgent talks on sending more support to Ukraine.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said it was “of great importance” that the three countries meet to discuss the war in Ukraine.
Things have been tense between the three nations making up the so-called Weimar Triangle, especially between France and Germany. While Ukraine pleads for long-range missiles Germany has steadfastly opposed sending them any of their Taurus missiles. French President Emmanuel Macron has been highly critical of Germany’s opposition. Poland on the other hand has been one of the most militant supporters of Ukraine and in opposing Russia. It has long urged Western allies to seriously increase support for Ukraine in order to fend off the Russian invasion.
🇳🇴
The Norwegian government anticipates hitting the NATO target of spending at least 2% of its GDP on defense by this year.
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre told NRK that this will mean sinking billions more Norwegian kroner into defense spending. He says the extra investment is necessary in light of a more dangerous and unpredictable Russia.
“The security policy situation around Norway is serious, perhaps the most serious for many decades.”
🇸🇪 NATO
Sweden has officially become a NATO member nation. After Hungary finally ratified Sweden’s ascension protocols it delayed signing the final documents due to a transition in the office of the country’s President. Late last week those documents were finally signed and then officially submitted in Washington D.C. by Sweden’s Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson called it a “truly historic day.”
After submitting the ascension protocols in Washington the next day both attended an official flag-raising ceremony at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
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Sweden’s first priority as a NATO member appears to be getting the military alliance to pitch in on efforts fortifying the Swedish island of Gotland. The Swedish military has been working since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to strengthen the strategically important island’s defenses and dramatically increase the number of soldiers stationed there. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told the Financial Times that he will ask NATO to help with fortifications possibly including the deployment of submarines around Gotland.
Gotland, the largest island in the Baltic, is situated to control both air and sea traffic through the southern Baltic. In every NATO war games each country playing Russia has invaded the island as its first move.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
While the Finnish land border with Russia remains closed warming temperatures and melting snow are making it easier for undocumented migrants to cross the border on foot. The Finnish Interior Ministry and Finnish Security and Intelligence Agency (SUPO) have previously raised alarms about the potential for security threats related to asylum seekers crossing the border illegally. Now the National Bureau of Investigation says several dozen immigrants potentially posing a threat to national security have crossed into Finland.
Since the beginning of August last year, around 1,300 third-country nationals have entered Finland through Russia. This led to the full closure of the land border. The large number of migrants has presented another challenge as officials can’t process migrants fast enough to assess if they pose a security risk or not.
The Finnish Border Guard is anticipating another influx of illegal migrants over the spring and summer months.
The Finnish Government will keep its land border with Russia closed until at least April 14 due to the risk posed by Russia weaponizing illegal immigration.
🇪🇺🇺🇦
The European Union has increased its special Ukraine fund by €5 billion. The fund is designed to keep weapons and ammunition flowing to Ukraine by reimbursing member nations for their military donations to Ukraine.
Ukraine Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba:
“I am grateful to EU member states for agreeing to the EU High Representative of Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell’s proposal to increase the European Peace Fund's financial ceiling by €5 billion for additional military support to Ukraine. This is yet another powerful and timely demonstration of European unity and determination in achieving our common victory. We look forward to the final decision being approved at the next EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting.”
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Europe continues to prepare for the worst. The EU Commission wants to dramatically increase defense spending in Europe. It is proposing to sink €1.5 billion (about $2.2 billion Cdn) into the European defense industry. It is also encouraging member nations to work together to jointly procure about 40% of their defense orders.
“In order to increase the preparedness of the European defense industry, the member states must invest more, better, together.”
The Commission is also proposing to use some of the monies from seized Russian central bank funds and other frozen Russian assets to finance the purchase of arms and ammunition for Ukraine.
🇱🇹/ 🇷🇺
This week a close ally of assassinated Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was attacked in Lithuania. Leonid Volkov suffered injuries including a broken arm after being attacked by men using pepper spray and hammers.
Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda said Russia was clearly behind the attack.
“My message to Putin is that nobody is afraid of you here.”
🇺🇸🇺🇦
With MAGA Republicans successfully blocking further military aid to Ukraine the Biden administration is getting creative to try and get the money flowing again. The U.S. Department of Defense is cutting some fiscal fat in order to free up $300 million to send to Ukraine. This aid package is something of a band-aid for a growing financial wound while a long stalled bill sits in Congress, which includes $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine, waits to be passed or not.
🇷🇴 NATO
Another name has entered the mix to replace Jens Stoltenberg in NATO’s top job. The President of Romania Klaus Iohannis has announced he is throwing his hat into the mix to become the next NATO Secretary General. Johannis has a steep hill to climb with another candidate, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, having the key support of the USA, Great Britain, Germany, France, and also Denmark.
🇷🇺🇪🇺
The consortium Nord Stream 2 AG is demanding hefty compensation from its insurers after the sabotage of the two gas pipelines running between Russia and Germany. Among the group of investors that make up Nord Stream 2 AG is a subsidiary of Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom.
Reuters is reporting that Nord Stream AG has filed for €436 million (about $642 million Cdn) from its insurance providers to cover some of the costs incurred since the two gas pipelines were blown up in September of 2022. The lawsuit was recently submitted to a London court. The explosions are estimated to have cost the pipeline operators around €1.2 billion (about $1.8 billion Cdn)
Investigations have confirmed the explosions that blew apart the pipelines were the result of sabotage. In February, the Swedish Prosecutor’s Office closed its investigation into the pipeline explosions. An investigation by Danish authorities also came to an end a month later. Neither investigation resulted in any charges. An investigation by German authorities continues.
Odds & Ends
🇩🇰
The number of people using Copenhagen Airport continues to grow. In February 1.8 million people traveled through the airport, a 13% increase from January’s passenger numbers. The airport says February travel numbers were driven by people in Denmark traveling either to ski vacations or to warmer climates to seek the sun.
Overall, the airport saw 26.8 million people flow through the airport last year, which is getting closer to the 30.3 million who used the airport in 2019, the year before the pandemic struck.
Airport Board Chair Lars Nørby Johansen:
“We are still not back to the level before the pandemic, and we are still affected by some of the consequences of the crisis.”
🇪🇺
The European Union has become the first governing body in the world to table legislation to try to reign in the explosive growth of artificial intelligence, or AI. The European Parliament has approved an extensive new AI law establishing a framework for how the technology must be used. For example, it specifies that AI cannot be used to manipulate or exploit people's vulnerabilities.
🇸🇰
Slovakia’s new extremist right-wing government is setting off alarm bells by establishing a new politically appointed council to be responsible for what is broadcast on the country’s public radio and television channels. The Slovakian government led by pro-Russia Prime Minister Robert Fico has rebranded the national broadcaster RTSV as STaR (Slovakia Television and Radio) with politically appointed management. The country’s opposition party says this is a step towards an authoritarian regime and the establishment of propagandistic state television.