The Evening Report - Mar 9
A pandemic mea culpa in Denmark. Long-COVID can be deadly.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
Better late than never, I guess. Danish health officials are admitting they built the country’s pandemic response on a faulty premise that the coronavirus wasn’t airborne. In a debate for the Danish publication ‘Ugeskrift for Læger,’ the head of the Staten Serum Institute and the agency’s former professional director said the focus needs to be on air purification and filtration and not on things like hand sanitizer.
The experts say it is time for a paradigm shift in preventing COVID infections by focusing on improving indoor air circulation and air quality.
Former SSI Professional Director Kåre Mølbak:
“Because according to the experts, aerosol infection via exhaled air is the most important route of infection when it comes to COVID.”
SSI Director Henrik Ullum says if they could have a do over the pandemic response in Denmark would have looked a lot different.
“If it had to be done over again, we would have to recommend venting, ventilation, and air purification in high-risk situations combined with the use of effective masks. Hand sanitizer should probably not be at the top of the list.”
Mølbak said in hindsight he wishes he had paid more attention to the many experts who were telling anyone who would listen that the coronavirus was airborne. If he had, the Statens Serum Institute would have recommended mask use much earlier than it did.
“That could have been useful. But I stand by what we did because it is difficult to go against the WHO. We leaned on the international recommendations.”
Countries like nearby Sweden and Germany have emphasized air ventilation and purification in schools and other indoor spaces for quite some time. An approach that has been missing in action in Denmark. Other countries like the USA and Canada are also putting effort into improving air quality in indoor spaces.
Some experts say the approach to reduce the risk of airborne transmission will reap benefits past the COVID pandemic and help reduce transmission for many other respiratory infections.
The SSI is beginning the shift by seeking funding and partners to collaborate with to test various clean air technologies.
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There was a slight increase in pandemic-related hospitalizations last week, according to the latest snapshot from the Statens Serum Institute. There were 214 new admissions in week nine, up from 181 the week before. Of those, 15 were vulnerable seniors in care. As has been the case for well over a year, seniors 70 to 89 years old make up the largest proportion of new admissions.
Daily COVID hospitalizations (199) dipped slightly (-4) while the number of severely infected people being treated in an ICU (8) crept upward (+2) of those, the number on a ventilator (8) is unchanged.
Infection-related admissions to a psychiatric facility (31) edged downward (-1).
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25 more lives were lost to the coronavirus last week, three more than in the week prior. The SSI says excess mortality rates are at “expected levels” across all age groups.
On Wednesday, another four pandemic deaths were reported.
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Virus activity caught by COVID wastewater surveillance was at a “stable level,” according to the institute. It says the national trend also shows stable levels over the last three weeks. The number of wastewater surveillance sites across the country has been greatly reduced.
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Now for the much less reliable pandemic indicators. The number of confirmed infections caught by the vastly reduced number of tests being done was “stable.” The SSI says the COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people treaded water at 13 in each of the last two weeks. But, PCR testing numbers also continue to drop as they declined by another 9% last week as Denmark grows increasingly blind to pandemic developments.
As for the daily numbers, Denmark reported a mere 139 new infections (underreported), including 55 reinfections, in its Thursday update.
With just 1,400 PCR tests taken on Wednesday that equals a daily positivity percentage of 9.92%. The rate over the last seven days is 9.7%. Last week, the positivity percentage increased to 9.2% compared to the 8.8% from the week before.
Looking at infection data by age, The highest virus activity was among seniors over the age of 80, where the COVID incidence rate is 28 per 100,000 people. Case numbers were stagnating among seniors in care, with 16 confirmed infections last week. The highest positivity percentage, 12%, was among those 40 to 49 years old. But among nursing home residents, the positivity percentage rose last week from 5.1% to 6.8%.
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Recombinant XBB variants are now dominant in Denmark, making up 57.58% of the few positive test results still being sequenced. The XBB.1.5 variant is the most active of the recombinants, as it accounts for 36% of the virus activity. The institute now notes that “reduced testing activity gives greater uncertainty about the distribution of variants.”
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The Statens Serum Institute’s sentinel monitoring shows that overall respiratory infection numbers decreased slightly in week 8, the week before last. Influenza, adenovirus, and metapneumovirus were the three most commonly detected respiratory viruses. Of those, influenza accounts for the largest proportion of infections.
The number of flu and RS virus cases have both declined week to week.
🇸🇪
The Swedish Public Health Agency added another 804 infections (wildly underreported) and 46 more virus deaths in the last week.
COVID hospitalizations (487) have increased (+29) while intensive care numbers (5) have dipped slightly (-3).
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A Swedish study has linked exposure to air pollution before the pandemic to increased risk of suffering from long-COVID during the pandemic. The study, published in The Lancet, focused on young adults using Sweden’s robust healthcare data combined with air pollution modeling of the years before the pandemic arrived. The study concluded that long-term exposure to air pollution was directly associated with suffering from long-COVID after having been infected.
The study found that the risk of suffering from long-COVID increased with exposure to higher concentrations of air pollution.
The association between air pollution exposure and long-COVID risk cut across all age groups and sub-types with one exception. People who have asthma had “stronger associations” between air pollution exposure and the risk of being afflicted with long-COVID.
The study authors say their findings support continued efforts to reduce air pollution to improve air quality and, in turn, people’s health.
The study in full can be found HERE.
🇳🇴
The incidence of respiratory infections in the population and admissions with respiratory infections has decreased significantly since the end of December and is now in the same order of magnitude as in the winter seasons before the pandemic. The further development of the epidemics is still uncertain and may be affected by the end of the winter holidays in recent weeks.
While COVID numbers have dropped significantly as the country’s winter wave recedes, Norway continues to see indications the next infection wave may already be approaching. In its latest weekly pandemic report, the Norwegian Institute for Public Health says epidemic activity is at a low level. But in recent weeks, wastewater surveillance has picked up increasing virus activity while hospitalizations have also crept upward.
The agency notes, “these could be early signs of the start of a new wave.”
“Which virus variants dominate, and the immunity in the population determines when a wave comes and how big it will be. Omicron XBB.1.5 is now the most frequently occurring single variant in Norway, and its prevalence is increasing rapidly; this variant has caused an increase in infections in other countries where it dominates.”
The good news is that the NIPH notes that influenza infections have been declining for three straight weeks, albeit there are some regional differences.
Likewise, RS virus infection activity continues to fade, with cases continuing to fall across all age groups and infection-related activity also steadily dropping.
The institute says that excess mortality is now lower than the average in the years prior to the pandemic. While it doesn’t provide an exact figure, it also adds that the number of deaths due to respiratory infections has also fallen in recent weeks.
“Hospitals and municipalities must be prepared that the flu epidemic may last a few more weeks and that there may be a new wave of covid-19 infections and admissions during the spring.”
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More evidence that as pandemic restrictions were lifted, the return to near normal was accompanied by many people getting sick as the usual respiratory infections made a big comeback. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health found that sales of cold medications jumped by 56% last year. It says the first two years of the pandemic saw the sale of over-the-counter cold medicines plummet.
Department of Pharmaceutical Statistics Director Mohammad Nouri Sharikabad:
“Increased sales from 2021 to 2022 is due to the low sales during the pandemic, probably due to social distancing and other COVID measures.”
Specifically, the sales of non-prescription nasal sprays and acetaminophen each increased by 16% last year. Prescription acetaminophen sales were up 9%. Over-the-counter Ibuprofen sales also increased by 7%.
🇫🇮
Finland registered 668 new infections over the last week while suffering another 32 pandemic deaths.
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A World Health Organization study found that the COVID pandemic exacerbated depression and loneliness among young women in Finland. The Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study found that one in every five 15-year-old Finnish girls reported feeling depressed or lonely.
The study concluded that the pandemic was a big factor in mental health deterioration among young women. In 2022, 19% of girls aged 13 to 15 reported feeling down every day, a 9% increase from the last survey in 2018.
University of Jyväskylä Senior Lecturer Nelli Lyyra:
“I am worried about 15-year-old girls, who seem to be facing a multitude of mental health challenges such as loneliness, morning fatigue and feeling low, among others. More than 1 in 4 reported experiencing loneliness always or often. Though loneliness did not increase significantly during the pandemic, it was more closely linked to other mental health problems in 2022 than earlier. Lonely adolescents seem to be more vulnerable to the negative mental health impacts of the pandemic.”
The study also highlighted another issue, a disparity between the mental health of young men and women. While young women’s mental heath deteriorates, young men are trending in the opposite direction. 13 to 15 year old boys were more confident and hopeful about their future than girls were (58% versus 44%).
University of Jyväskylä Researcher Kristiina Ojala:
“We assumed there would be a decline in how hopeful adolescents are about their future, but surprisingly, the proportion of 15-year-old boys who often saw their future as hopeful was 10% higher in 2022 than in 2018.”
For Associate Professor Leena Paakkari, this highlights a gender imbalance that needs to be addressed.
“Our results revealed gender inequalities in well-being. There is a need to strengthen gender-sensitive recommendations, policies and practices in crisis response and recovery efforts. We need an increased understanding of the health resources that have the potential to decrease the disparities among gender groups. It would be equally important to understand the mechanisms that explain positive health trends among boys.”
Lastly, the survey also found that young people with good family support, friend groups, and teachers were more positive, less lonely, and less vulnerable to depression. Conversely, those without those robust support systems were more at risk.
🇬🇧
The United Kingdom will roll out another round of COVID vaccine booster doses this spring. The UK Health Security Agency says that people most at risk will get another vaccine dose. This will include everyone over 75, vulnerable seniors in care, and anyone over the age of five who is in a high-risk population. Scotland gets the first go with the booster dose campaign beginning at the end of the month. England and Wales will start in early April, while Northern Ireland gets its turn in mid-April.
The latest booster dose must be given no less than six months after the last injection. The health agency will use vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Sanofi/GSK, and Novavax as booster doses.
Last fall, the previous booster dose campaign offered top-up shots to frontline healthcare workers in the UK, along with every over 50, and for those working in senior care homes and close contacts to those at risk.
🇺🇸/ 🦠
The U.S. Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has become the first health agency to officially confirm that long-COVID can kill you. The agency updated its “Guidance for Certifying Deaths Due to Coronavirus Disease” to include certification for long-COVID-related fatalities.
“As our knowledge of COVID and its effects has progressed over time, it is now known that patients can recover from the acute phase of the infection but still suffer from long-term effects. Post-acute sequelae of COVID (PASC), commonly referred to as “long-COVID,” can cause a wide range of serious complications, including death.”
The updated guidelines basically say that if it is determined that long-COVID was a cause or contributing cause of death, it should be noted on the official death certificate.
According to the Government Accountability Office, up to 23 million Americans have been impacted by long-COVID, and of those, the symptoms have been so severe that one million of them cannot work.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada reported 9,205 new infections (underreported) in its latest weekly summary and 135 more coronavirus deaths.
The weekly positivity percentage is 11.8%.
In the week ending February 28, the total number of hospital beds in use by pandemic patients increased slightly from 3,724 to 3,743. Of those, General admissions rose to 3,567, an increase of 11 week over week. The number of people being treated in intensive care also increased, but again just slightly, by seven to 176 beds in use. Severely infected people requiring a ventilator also rose to 99, an increase of 12.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇪🇺
Winter temperatures swept across Europe last week, driving up heating demand and forcing the European Union to lean harder on its natural gas reserves. For the first time this winter, EU gas reserves slipped below the 60% threshold to 59.2%. That is down from 62.5% the week before.
This week, Old Man Winter is making his presence felt with freezing temperatures in Northern Europe while the south sees more spring-like weather.
With a month or so left for cold winter temperatures to make an appearance, Europe finds itself in a much better position than anyone could have guessed five or six months ago. And it’s not just its energy reserves and a greatly diminished risk of gas shortages, once soaring gas prices are down about 80% from last summer.
There are two ways to look at the drop in energy prices. The optimistic view is that they are far below the once soaring heights that fueled the energy crisis and drove energy bills through the roof. The pessimistic view is that even though energy prices are down drastically from what they once were, they are still roughly double pre-energy crisis prices.
At the individual country level, France continues to struggle as its gas reserves dropped to 38.2%, the lowest of any nation in Europe. Belgium (43.4%), Hungary (47.4%), and Romania (47.8%) also have gas reserves below the 50% mark. Spain (79.8%), Bulgaria (77.5%), Austria (68.4%), and Poland (68.3%) have the highest level of natural gas reserves in the EU.
Something to keep an eye on. The European Union’s mandate to reduce gas use by 15% is due to expire this month. It will be interesting to see if the gas savings strategy is extended or not. Europe has already exceeded the reduction target registering its sharpest decline in natural gas use in history. But, the incredibly warm winter weather lent a huge helping hand.
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After being battered for two years due to the pandemic, Copenhagen Airport saw a vast improvement last year, but the energy crisis poses a new challenge. The airport recorded a profit of 257 million Danish kroner last year (about $50 million Cdn), doubling its 2021 revenues. However, while much-improved business at the airport has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, it saw 22.1 million passengers flowing through the airport last year and welcomed 810 new employees, the highest number in its history. In its financial reports, the airport cautions that while it expects to see business continue to improve this year, fluctuating energy prices and rising inflation are making the outlook extremely uncertain.
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Inflation is pushing food prices to record highs in Sweden. The country recorded the highest food prices ever last month. In February, food prices rose by 2.5%, more than double the increases recorded in all of 2021, according to Matpriskollen, an app comparing food prices across Sweden. Baby food increased the most, with prices shooting up by 10.8% last month alone.
🇫🇷
In France, if it is not one thing, it is another. Last summer’s historic drought impacted river levels, which in turn caused problems for French nuclear reactors that rely on them for the cooling process. Then the energy crisis arrived as a swath of those same nuclear reactors underwent maintenance that dragged on for months kneecapping power production precisely when it was needed most. Now, just as those same nuclear reactors are returning online, they have been caught up in massive labour strikes across France against pension reforms.
It is also worth mentioning that France is already struggling with another drought, even though it is just March. In areas of the country that haven’t seen a drop of rain or even a snowflake for months, water restrictions are already being imposed. If drought conditions persist into the summer, it will once again pose major problems for French nuclear power production.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
There has been a twist in the investigation into the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, which were blown up last September. The NY Times reports that a pro-Ukrainian group was behind the explosions in the Baltic Sea. The paper, citing anonymous sources within the American intelligence community, says there is no indication that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy or his top brass knew anything about the operation. It says the nationalities of the people involved “were likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals.” Who may have financed them is unknown.
The German media outlet, Die Zeit, is reporting that investigators have identified a boat that might have been used in the operation. The public prosecutor's office in Germany has confirmed German police have tracked down the boat and searched it and traces of explosives were found onboard. The yacht was apparently chartered by a Polish company owned by two Ukrainians. Investigators believe that the saboteurs travelled by boat from the German port city of Rostock on September 6 and later appeared on an island near Bornholm in Denmark. Die Zeit says it is unclear if the boat searched was the same one investigators have tracked around the Baltic.
It should also be noted that authorities have not ruled out that this might be a false flag operation.
Going into the European defense ministers summit in Stockholm, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told journalists Ukraine had nothing to do with this.
“We were not involved.”
Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Mykhailo Podolya also took to Twitter:
“Ukraine has nothing to do with the Baltic Sea accident and has no information about pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups.”
🇪🇺🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
Ammunition supply is emerging as a critical issue for Ukrainian forces. European Union defense ministers held a summit this week in Stockholm, and ammunition production was one of the significant issues on the table.
The problem is twofold. Europe is heavily invested in helping Ukraine defeat Russia, and it needs a steady stream of ammunition to do that. But, Europe also has to ensure that there is no ammunition shortage for European and NATO forces should the worst-case scenario come to fruition, and Europe/NATO is dragged into the war.
European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said member countries have agreed to a three-track approach to secure ammunition for Ukraine. But he also added questions remain about where to get the money to fund the strategy.
“The next weeks will be critical because the military situation on the ground remains very difficult, in particular in Bakhmut. I think that there is a clear message, for Ukraine to win the peace, it needs to win the war. Ukrainian armed forces need our continuing support, and in particular, this was the core discussion today on artillery ammunition. We need to deliver more, and we need to deliver faster.”
The three-pronged approach includes a billion euro fund to be used to compensate member nations that donate their ammunition to Ukraine. Another billion euros would go to the European Defense Agency, which is responsible for joint procurement on behalf of the EU. Lastly, the third track leans on increasing ammunition production capacity in Europe.
Currently, there are just 15 factories producing artillery ammunition across the 27 member EU nations.
🇩🇰 🇪🇺/ 🇺🇦
Danish Acting Minister of Defense Troels Lund Poulsen attended the Stockholm summit and spoke to DR:
“We think it is a really good idea if, in cooperation with other countries, we can both strengthen ammunition production and obtain additional ammunition.”
He says all options including re-starting ammunition production on Danish soil, are on the table.
“Years ago, in connection with a previous defense settlement, we divested our ammunition factory and sold it to a Spanish company. It is now closed. But we must try to see if we can perhaps restart further ammunition production in Denmark.”
The ammunition facility used to be in Elling, near Frederikshavn, but it was sold off and closed entirely in 2020.
🇳🇴/ 🇷🇺
The Norwegian Armed Forces scrambled two F-35s on Thursday after identifying a pair of Russian military aircraft in international air space near Finnmark on the northern tip of Norway. They were identified as two Russian Ilyushin Il-38s. Norwegian forces said the two fighters conducted a standard response mission to show the Russians “that we control and monitor allied areas of interest.”
🇸🇪 🇫🇮/ 🇹🇷
Sweden and Finland are no closer to getting a yes or a no from Turkey as the three countries met in Brussels today to continue talks over the two Nordic NATO applications. Coming out of the meeting, Sweden's chief negotiator for NATO membership, Oscar Stenström, says the only thing Turkey agreed to on Thursday was to keep talking.
“We have agreed to further meetings to take stock of where we are on the agreement that we reached in Madrid that will eventually lead to ratification in Ankara of the Swedish and Finnish application. We see that Turkey has recognized that both Sweden and Finland have taken concrete steps in this agreement, which is a good sign. But we don’t have any specific details on when exactly it will happen.”
He says NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg again urged Turkey to ratify Finland and Sweden’s NATO applications and do so as fast as possible given the threat posed by Russia.
That said, it looks like any ratification vote will only come after the dust settles in Turkey’s national elections in April.
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On Wednesday, the Swedish government tabled a bill in parliament to approve Sweden joining NATO. If approved it will ensure a speedy ascension into NATO once all 30 member countries ratify the country’s application to join the military alliance.
28 of the 30 NATO member nations have delivered speedy ratification votes, and just two, Hungary and Turkey, have yet to have a ratification vote. Sweden and Finland need a clean sweep, a yes from all 30 member nations to join NATO.
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Sweden has tabled a new terrorism law that it hopes will win Turkey’s support for its NATO application. The new law would make it a criminal offense to be a participant in a terrorist organization. This, of course, is aimed at the Kurdish PKK, considered a terrorist organization by the European Union.
Swedish Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer spoke to TT.
“Sweden stands out compared to other countries by not having rules for being a participant in terrorist organizations.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been using Sweden’s NATO application as leverage to get Sweden to crack down on the PKK and deport certain Kurds that have asylum in Sweden back to Turkey.
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇸
Five F-35 fighter jets arrived in Denmark this week. Along with them are U.S. Air Force crews to work with the Danish military on air and ground operations of the new jets. Denmark will begin swapping out its old F-16s with new F-35s this fall.
The Danish military was supposed to begin retiring its F-16s last year but immediately stopped that plan when Russia invaded Ukraine, causing alarm all over Europe.
You can see a fun multi-angle view video from the cockpit of an F-35 as it flies over the Lillebæltsbroen (Little belt bridge) connecting Jutland and Fyn HERE.
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Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Danish soldiers were conducting close air support exercises around Finnerup this week. The exercises involved soldiers on the ground calling in air support against enemy positions or other targets close to their own units. In this case, the exercises involved targeting for American B52 bombers.
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A “temporary military area” will be in place at the West Quay of Fredericia harbour as of this Saturday at 7 pm, and it will remain in place until Sunday at 8 pm. It will be a secure area with access restrictions. This is due to Danish troops, equipment, and tanks returning from Estonia, where Denmark has been contributing to NATO forces on the military alliance’s eastern flank.
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Despite closing down all of its business in Russia, including shutting down 81 stores due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, LEGO has reported its most profitable year in its history. Last year, LEGO recorded a whopping 13.8 billion kroner profit (About $2.7 billion Cdn) after taxes. Soaring sales in the United States and Western Europe helped propel the iconic Danish company to new heights.
🇫🇮 🇪🇺/ 🇺🇦
Finland is taking part in the European Union’s mission to provide military training to 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers. This includes basic and more specialized training. Finland has joined 23 other EU member states to participate in the mission. Finland has sent 50 Finnish soldiers to Poland to help train Ukrainian soldiers. The Finnish Ministry of Defense adds that it is also prepared to donate equipment and “defense material” to the Ukrainian troops undergoing the training program.
🇩🇪/ 🇬🇧
A first in Europe. British Royal Air Force pilots will fly joint NATO missions with their German Air Force counterparts over Estonia. The joint air missions to protect the air space over the Baltics and keep an eye on Russia will begin next month. The British Ministry of Defense says about 300 Royal Air Force personnel will arrive in Estonia soon.
British Defense Minister Ben Wallace:
“Our RAF personnel in Estonia take on a crucial role which ensures the security of Europe's airspace and strengthens NATO's presence in Eastern Europe.”
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, NATO member countries have been coordinating both to build up defenses along the alliance’s eastern flank and rotating ground and air forces to defend NATO territory.