The Evening Report - Mar 24
NATO continues to bulk up. Omicron eases its grip on Denmark
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
NATO/ 🇷🇺
NATO-allied countries have agreed to seriously beef up military forces along the Russian border. The alliance already has 40,000 troops along the Eastern European flank along with significant naval and air support. On Thursday, the allied countries agreed to an additional four battlegroups to be stationed in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.
“In light of the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades, we will also significantly strengthen our longer term deterrence and defense posture and will further develop the full range of ready forces and capabilities necessary to maintain credible deterrence and defense.”
NATO is also stepping up cyber capabilities and defenses against cyber attacks. In a concerning signal about what other threats Russia might pose, the organization is increasing its preparedness for chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats.
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Sweden is looking to send another shipment of weapons to Ukraine. Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist says the latest arms shipment will include 5,000 anti-tank weapons and equipment to help deal with mines. The Swedish Parliament’s Finance Committee now needs to sign off on the transfer. If approved, this would increase the total to date number of anti-tank weapons Sweden has sent Ukraine to 10,000.
🇵🇱/ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺
Poland continues to take a hard line approach to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It expelled 45 Russian diplomats accusing them of espionage and of acting as spies in violation of their diplomatic role and responsibilities. Poland has been among the strongest voices in Europe for a more forceful European and NATO reaction to the Russian invasion.
🇩🇰/ 🇵🇱 🇷🇺 🇺🇦
As Poland gives the boot to Russian diplomats, opposition parties in Denmark are increasing the pressure on the Prime Minister to follow suit.
Mette Frederiksen spoke to DR:
“I have seen what Poland has done, and we must of course look into it. I do not deny that, that is among the kind of diplomatic tools we have available to respond to this current conflict.”
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the Danish parliament next week. Zelensky has been giving passionate speeches to a number of western parliaments as his country continues to beat back a Russian invasion. He will address the Folketing by video on March 29. His speech will be in Ukrainian but translated into Danish.
“The president will give a briefing on the situation in Ukraine and thank the Danish people for the support that has been shown to his country. As conditions in Ukraine may change at short notice, there is some uncertainty about the event. It may thus be necessary to change or cancel the meeting at short notice.”
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The Danish National Board of Health is donating five ambulances to Ukraine. The ambulances will be driven from Denmark to Poland and then taken across the border to be handed over to Ukrainian authorities. Drivers left Denmark for Poland Thursday morning. Earlier this month, Falck also donated 30 ambulances to Ukraine.
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Region Sjælland is busy stockpiling COVID vaccine doses to help vaccinate Ukrainian refugees as they arrive in Denmark. According to the World Health Organization, the vaccination rate in Ukraine was very low prior to the Russian invasion. The region is also preparing a pamphlet in Ukrainian to inform them about the opportunity to get vaccinated. It will be handed out to refugees on the ferry from Germany to Denmark.
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The Danish Health Ministry is also dispatching another shipment of badly needed medicine to Ukraine.
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Danish armoured vehicles headed to Germany on Thursday. The Danish Armed Forces say they are going for long-scheduled military exercises and can be recalled back to Denmark very quickly if the need arises.
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Finland will supply Ukraine with more “defensive equipment” according to a statement from the Ministry of Defense. But the ministry is remaining tight-lipped about what equipment is headed to Ukraine or when it will be delivered.
“Finland's additional assistance has taken into account both the needs of Ukraine and the resource situation of the Defense Forces. The decision to provide aid to Ukraine will not jeopardize our national defense capabilities.”
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Finland is bracing for a flood of Ukrainian refugees. Director of Immigration at the Ministry of Interior, Sanna Sutter, says they have already logged 11,100 refugee applications asking for temporary protections. Sutter says they believe this is just the beginning with the ministry estimating between 40,000 to 80,000 Ukrainian refugees will arrive in Finland this year.
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The United States has made a formal determination that Russian troops committed war crimes in Ukraine.
🇨🇦/ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺
Coming out of Thursday’s extraordinary NATO meeting in Belgium, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government is exploring options to get more weapons to Ukraine.
“We'll continue to try and help out in the best possible way we can, and as [Ukrainian President Volodomyr] Zelensky has been asking for various new pieces of equipment, we're looking at what we can send. At the same time, we're also committed to looking at procuring that equipment directly for Ukrainians."
Trudeau also dropped the strongest hints yet that Canada will increase its defense spending.
🦠Pandemic🦠
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While it is getting harder to get an accurate assessment of Denmark’s epidemic situation, all the indicators, both reliable and others less so, point to a declining infection wave. The latest weekly pandemic snapshot from the Staten Serum Institut says COVID hospitalizations saw a 16% decline, dropping to 1,468 last week. Admissions dropped across most age groups, with the exception of a small increase in infected people 40 to 49 years old being hospitalized. Seniors over 70 years old continue to make up the largest number of new admissions. The dropping numbers are also being seen in intensive care units, but the institute doesn’t provide any numbers to quantify that decline.
The SSI breaks down hospitalizations directly due to a coronavirus infection and those with an infection, but admitted for other reasons. It says the number of admissions because of an infection fell from 48% in the last week of February to 44% in the first week of March.
The number of COVID deaths dropped from 268 in the second week of March to 216 last week. The SSI says excess mortality rates remain low. The institute counts pandemic deaths in two ways. One is any death within four weeks of a positive test result. The second is based on the actual cause of death after review of death certificates, which is reported on a lag. The agency says there has been a 33% drop in the number of deaths counted as fatalities within 30 days of a positive test result. As for coronavirus fatalities based on the actual cause of death, the SSI says as of last week 73% of COVID-related deaths were due to a reason other than a coronavirus infection. It cautions that 41% of fatalities last week have yet to have their death certificates reviewed.
There was a decrease in infection activity as measured by COVID wastewater testing across Denmark last week. Looking at the different Danish regions virus activity declined in wastewater testing in Region Hovedstaden (Metro Copenhagen), Region Midtjylland, and Region Syddanmark. In Region Nordjylland wastewater results were stagnant. While in Region Sjælland virus activity increased slightly.
Looking at the much less reliable case numbers, the COVID incidence rate decreased from week to week to 870 per 100,000 people. The positivity percentage also declined to 29% last week, compared to 31% the week before. The SSI notes the number of PCR tests also continues to drop, with 31% fewer tests being taken from week to week.
The COVID incidence rate per 100,000 residents was highest in Region Syddanmark (1,019) while Region Midtjylland had the highest positivity percentage (34%).
Looking at COVID incidence rates by age group, it was highest among those 60 to 69 years old (1,286) followed by 70 to 79 years old (1,283). Overall incidence rates declined across all age groups, as has the testing rate and positivity percentage.
COVID cases are falling among nursing home residents, with 976 infections among seniors in care last week compared to 1,288 the week prior. The number of seniors in care dying because of a coronavirus infection remains tragically high but is also easing. There were 93 fatalities last week, a drop from the 109 the week before.
On the variant front, the Omicron sub-strain BA.2 remains king, accounting for 99% of all sequenced positive test results. There was a slight decline in the numbers of BA.2_H78Y. Keep in mind, that along with dropping testing numbers, there is a correlated decline in sequencing, making it much harder to accurately monitor both virus spread and variant activity.
The Staten Serum Institut is forecasting infection numbers to continue to fall over the coming week. It is also anticipating hospitalizations and deaths to continue to decline. But it cautions that while COVID cases fall new influenza cases are rising.
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COVID hospitalizations (1,324) crept back up (+27) while the number of severe infections in an ICU (20) dipped slightly (-4) and of those the number on a ventilator (7) also edged down (-2) and admissions into a psych ward (361) were down (-5).
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While Danish health authorities no longer require most of the population to get a COVID test even if they are symptomatic, including young students, the state is still buying up self-testing kits. Politiken is reporting the regions are looking to procure at least another five-million testing kits by April. Region Midtjylland is responsible for buying the kits on behalf of all the regions.
As of March 1, the five Danish regions had about 20-million self-testing kits in stock.
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Denmark has reported 5,408 COVID infections (underreported), including 302 reinfections, and 32 coronavirus deaths, in the last day.
Yesterday there were 26,819 PCR corona tests taken, equaling a positivity percentage of 20.16%.
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With over 12 million vaccine doses administered in Denmark so far, thousands of vaccine side effects have been reported; virtually none of them have been serious. The Danish Medicines Agency was charged with monitoring vaccine side effects and so far it has logged 41,473 reported side effects, with the vast majority causing mild or moderate short term issues.
This is the parliamentary response provided by the agency via the Ministry of Health to the Epidemic Committee as reported by Ritzau.
“These are mainly known and transient side effects such as reactions at the injection site (pain and swelling), fatigue, headaches, muscle aches, joint pain, nausea, and fever.”
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On the vaccination front, there were just 665 booster doses administered yesterday as the inoculation effort creeps along.
To date, 82.3% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 80.8% have two, and 61.4% have a booster shot.
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Influenza cases continue to mount in Denmark. The Staten Serum Institut had said last Thursday that influenza cases had been doubling every week for the last four weeks. Now it looks like it will soon be five weeks. As of Wednesday, there have been 2,108 confirmed flu cases in the last week alone, almost double the previous weeks numbers. The steep increase is coming well after a normal flu season would normally peak in Denmark.
Professor and Chief Physician at the Department of Infectious Diseases at Aalborg University Hospital Henrik Nielsen:
“It is delayed compared to what we know from ordinary flu seasons. It's a little unusual that we have to fight the flu in March.”
Health officials had been worried that influenza would come roaring back last fall after being virtually dormant for the two years of the COVID pandemic. In October of 2021, a massive flu vaccine campaign was launched, which included vaccinating children between two and six years of age for the first time ever.
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Sweden has added 6,048 infections (wildly underreported) and another 136 corona deaths since its last update last Friday.
To date, 87% of the population aged 12 years old and older have one dose, 84.7% have two, and 62.3% have a booster dose.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency says ‘national vaccination week’ was a success. The agency says more than 160,000 doses were administered last week, a 23% increase (about 30,000 more doses) than previous weeks. However, the agency adds, there are still around one-million people in Sweden over the age of 12 who are not vaccinated. That was the target group the big vaccination push was aimed at, and it looks like very little headway was made in convincing the vaccine skeptics. It says, in fact, the increase in vaccinations last week “was mainly among people who took their fourth vaccine dose.”
Department Head Britta Björkholm:
“It is gratifying that so many chose to accept the offer of vaccination. It is important that vaccination coverage in the country now continues to increase in order to strengthen the protection of the population. Vaccines are the most important tool for protecting both oneself and others against COVID.”
In its weekly pandemic update, the Swedish Public Health Agency says COVID case numbers fell by 16% last week. But it added that the positivity percentage remains high at around 20% and the infections ‘dark figure’ continues to grow “as testing is concentrated on health care and elderly care.”
New corona cases also declined among seniors in nursing homes and those receiving home care, down 32% and 27% respectively.
ICU admissions are also decreasing, with 13 last week down from the average of 36 during the previous three weeks. During week 9, the agency says there were 265 pandemic deaths, compared to the weekly average of 335 in each of the previous three weeks.
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In Norway, COVID hospitalizations (467) ICU (50) and ventilator numbers (22) are all unchanged.
Norge has added 6,511 infections (underreported) and hasn’t reported any new pandemic deaths in the last 48 hours.
So far, 80.3% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one dose, 74.7% have two, and 53.9% have a booster shot.
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Norway’s huge Omicron-driven infection wave has passed its peak and is now clearly declining. That is the according to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health in its latest weekly pandemic assessment.
COVID hospitalizations are down by 29% with 373 admissions last week, a clear drop from the 524 from the week before. The highest number of hospitalizations by age group continues to be among those 75 years old and older. Intensive care admissions are also on a downward slip with 24 last week compared to 37 the week prior.
152 people in Norway lost their lives to coronavirus last week, which is 19 fewer than the week before. The institute cautions though, that fatality numbers are likely to be adjusted upward, so take this statistic with a grain of salt. The median age of those who died from an infection last week was 86 years old. Most deaths occurred in a healthcare institution, primarily a nursing home.
26,526 infections were reported last week (underreported), which is a 37% week-over week decrease.
The BA.2 variant is totally dominant in Norway and accounts for 88% of all sequenced positive test results in the last two weeks.
The NIPH says mathematical modeling indicates that new infections will fall by half about every two weeks assuming current trends continue. That said, the institute adds that hospitals will remain under pressure for a few weeks to come due to COVID hospitalizations, mostly older people, and high rates of staff being out sick.
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Finland has registered 12,502 infections and three more coronavirus deaths since Wednesday. The Finnish Institute for Health has been dealing with a technical issue impacting corona case reporting, so there may be some infections carried over from the previous reporting period.
COVID hospitalizations (969) are unchanged.
To date, 80.1% of the total population have one dose, 76.5% have two, and 50.8% have a booster shot.
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The Finnish Institute for Health is now recommending a second round of booster shots of COVID vaccines for all seniors in care and for everyone 80 years old and older. Air says a fourth dose can be administered three months after having a third vaccine shot. It estimates about 300,000 people will be eligible for another booster dose.
Chief Physician Hanna Nohynek:
“As the epidemic situation has deteriorated, the number of cases requiring special medical care has also increased among those under 80 years of age. However, even in a difficult epidemic, three doses of the vaccine still provide them with good protection against severe infection. The protective effect of the three doses of the vaccine in those over 80 years of age is not as good or long-lasting as in the younger ones. The fourth dose is therefore intended to increase and prolong protection against serious illness, hospitalization, and, in particular, death.”
A fourth dose has already been recommended to everyone in Finland who has a weakened or compromised immune system. The second round of boosters will be either a half dose of the Moderna vaccine or a full dose of Pfizer/BioNTech. The agency says it has enough vaccine supplies to get everyone who needs one a fourth shot.
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The COVID epidemic is severe and shows no signs of abating. That is how the latest weekly pandemic snapshot begins from the Finnish Institute for Health. It says the hospital system is still strained. Serious demands on intensive care units remain unchanged. The agency is asking people to voluntarily take every action they can to prevent the infection from spreading as restrictions fall.
As of Wednesday this week, there were 542 COVID patients in hospital and increase from the 466 of just two weeks ago. The institute says about a third of infected patients have been admitted for a non-pandemic reason. In the last two weeks, there were 76 new infection admissions into intensive care units. That is up from the 30 to 40 ICU patients seen since roughly the end of January.
The institute says COVID wastewater testing continues to show a high level of virus activity.
In the last two weeks, the country has lost another 275 lives to coronavirus. Of those, 252 (91.6%) have been 70 years old and older.
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Germany reported 318,387 COVID infections in the last 24 hours as its infection curve continues to bend back upward. That also marks the first time ever in the pandemic the country has seen daily reported infections exceed 300,000. Germany also suffered another 300 pandemic deaths.
It added 1,938 more COVID hospitalizations, while ICU numbers (2,335) dropped (-47). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country, coronavirus patients are taking up 10.6% of all beds.
To date, 76.5% of the total population have one dose, 75.9% have two doses, and 58.4% have a booster dose.
🇪🇺🦠
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has released its latest COVID risk assessment map of the EU. Very high-risk crimson still dominates but shades of lighter high-risk red are emerging and one area of Poland remains medium-risk orange.
🇨🇦
Canada reported 5,207 COVID infections (wildly underreported) while losing another 25 lives to the coronavirus on Wednesday.
The national positivity percentage over the last seven days was 14.3%.
The Canadian vaccination effort has so far administered 32,301,989 1st vaccine doses (84.48% of the total population) while 31,121,548 people (81.39%) have two doses, and of those, 18,028,628 people have been fully vaccinated with three doses.
In Ontario, COVID hospitalizations (661) rose (+17) while the number of severe infections in intensive care (165) has declined (-34). There were 10 more pandemic deaths.
Quebec saw hospitalizations (1,062) rise (+68) while the number of severe infections in an ICU (57) is unchanged. There were 14 more corona deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 13.08%
Newfoundland and Labrador has 29 COVID patients in hospital, an increase of 2, with three people in an ICU, a decrease of three. The province has five more deaths.
In Nova Scotia hospitalizations (42) are down (-8) with 13 people in an ICU. The province has suffered 13 more corona deaths.
New Brunswick saw hospitalizations (129) jump (+30) while ICU numbers (16) also rose (+3). The province saw 16 more pandemic deaths.
Manitoba had COVID hospitalizations (369) increase (+34) with 18 people in intensive care, up four. There were five new pandemic deaths. The province has a five-day positivity percentage of 13.1%.
Saskatchewan suffered 33 more corona deaths. The provinces e has 306 people hospitalized (-33) with 19 in an ICU (-5).
COVID hospitalizations in Alberta (956) dropped (-11) while the number of people in an ICU (56) declined (-11). There have been 21 more corona deaths. The province has a positivity percentage, which averaged 23.5% over the last week.
B.C. saw COVID hospitalizations (255) fall (-43) while the number of people with severe infections in an ICU (52) crept up (+3). There has been six more pandemic deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 6.2%.