The Evening Report - Mar 17
COVID down, Influenza up in Denmark. Norway sees record deaths.
🦠Pandemic🦠
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The latest pandemic assessment indicates that while the Omicron-driven infection wave eases its grip on Denmark, the country isn’t out of the woods yet. The Statens Serum Institut’s latest weekly report says COVID hospitalizations dropped from 2,169 to 1,748 from one week to the next. That is a decline of 19%. Falling hospital numbers were also seen across all age groups. Seniors aged 70 to 79 years old still make up the largest number of COVID hospitalizations by age. They are followed by the 80 to 89 year old age group and then those 60 to 69 years of age.
The SSI says of those COVID hospitalizations, the numbers being admitted directly because of a coronavirus infection have also decreased, going from 52% of admissions in week 7 to 48% the following week.
Pandemic fatalities dropped slightly, with 254 lives lost last week compared to 292 the week before. The SSI has updated numbers for people who died because of COVID and those who had an infection but died due to a non-pandemic reason. As of the middle of March, 46% of fatalities were people dying with, and not because of, a coronavirus infection. However, the institut cautions that it has still yet to review the death certificates of 36% of the COVID-related deaths last week.
The Danish National Health Board has changed COVID testing recommendations, further undermining the reliability of infection numbers as an accurate pandemic barometer. That said, the latest SSI report notes infection numbers have decreased from week to week. Worth noting, there was also an 18% drop in the number of PCR tests taken for an average of just under 50,000 daily tests last week. The positivity percentage in Denmark eased slightly to a still very high 31.3% last week, down from 34.5% the week prior.
Region Syddanmark now has the highest COVID incidence rate in the country of 1,637 per 100,000 people. The incidence rate declined across all five regions last week. Region Midtjylland had the highest positivity percentage, 35%.
While the COVID incidence rate has dropped among all age groups, it remains highest among those 60 to 69 years old (1,840 per 100,000) followed by those 50 to 59 years old (1,791).
The infection situation in nursing homes remains pretty ugly, although numbers are dropping. The SSI says coronavirus cases among seniors in care dropped from 1,700 infections to 1,288 in the last two weeks. 109 deaths were recorded in nursing homes last week after seeing 116 lives lost the week before.
In Denmark, the Omicron sub-variant BA.2 rules supreme making up 99% of all sequenced positive test results last week. Of those, the sub-variant BA.2_H78Y crept up week to week, rising by almost a full percentage point to make up 29.25% of all infections.
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In Denmark, COVID hospitalizations (1,453) continue to drop (-50) while the number of severe cases in an ICU (29) crept up (+3) and of those the number on a ventilator (7) dipped (-2). COVID admissions to a psychiatric ward (392) also declined (-11).
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The Statens Serum Institut has been working with the Danish Blood Bank in an effort to try and determine the COVID ‘dark figure.’ That is, the number of people who have been infected but were either asymptotic or had symptoms so mild they never got tested. Blood samples are tested for virus antibodies, then cross-checked against PCR testing results. The latest results have been released and as of week 9, 51% of the blood donors had COVID antibodies. The SSI says if you project that across the population between the ages of 17 to 72 years old then it indicates 70% of the population has been infected since November of last year. The institut advises that these results should be taken with some caution.
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Denmark reported 8,326 COVID infections (underreported), including 455 reinfections, and 43 more coronavirus deaths in the last day. Pandemic fatalities here are as measured by a death within 30 days of a positive test result.
Yesterday there were 40,360 COVID tests done, of which 39,507 were PCR tests equaling a positivity percentage of 21.07%.
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While the Statens Serum Institut, and Denmark’s Health Minister, emphasize that COVID wastewater testing is showing declining trends nationally, and across all regions, one expert is taking exception.
University of Oxford Professor of Virology and Immunology Astrid Iversen says the SSI’s own data, released weekly, paints a different picture.
“Wastewater measurements from all over the country show that corona is still spreading well; although the trend is downward; in some places, it is most often either stable or upward. There are places where the amount of virus is decreasing but others where it is not and places where it goes up. It is not a uniform picture and we would not expect that. But virus levels are still high regardless of the trend.”
Iversen says that, unfortunately, coronavirus is still very much among us, noting that previous waves took longer to recede than they did to rise. She says wastewater testing shows we are still at a level similar to the start of January.
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On the vaccination front, there were just 876 booster doses administered yesterday as the inoculation effort inches along.
To date, 82.3% of the total population has one vaccine dose, 80.8% have two, and 61.3% have a booster dose.
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The COVID pandemic has put a serious dent in the use of narcotics in Denmark, especially among young people under the age of 25. This is according to the new Narcotics Annual Report from the Danish Health and Medicines Authority. It found significant decreases in drug use. For example, cocaine use dropped from 5.5% to 2.9%. The use of amphetamines edged down from 1.7% to 1.4%. Ecstasy use also stuck with the trend dropping half a percentage point to 1.2%.
National Board of Health Chief Consultant Kari Grasaasen:
“It is very positive that the proportion of young people who smoke cannabis and use other illegal drugs has fallen, because we already have an excessive prevalence of both experimental and regular use of the drugs. However, the decline is probably primarily due to [pandemic]restrictions.”
Grasaasen adds the hope is young people will continue to shy away from drug use and that declines during the epidemic won’t rise as things return to near normal.
“Because we know that drugs risk affecting young people negatively both personally and socially, and can have fatal consequences.”
Marijuana use among young people had been steadily dropping since 2017. Cannabis use among those aged 16 to 24 years old has fallen to a shade under 16%. Young people who reported using more than one illegal narcotic other than marijuana were just under 5% in 2021.
Researchers noted the link between nightlife and drug use, with all bars, discos, and dance clubs being closed due to the epidemic when the survey was conducted. Alcohol sales had also been curtailed.
“Based on the new results, we can state that the use of drugs is also to a large extent a social phenomenon and linked to party and night life. But no use of drugs is without risk, and that is why we continue our preventive efforts.”
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Don’t look now, but influenza activity is increasing. The Staten Serum Institut says there are rising numbers of influenza cases, especially in Metro Copenhagen, Region Sjælland, and Region Syddanmark, as it warns the flu season may be arriving late.
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Sweden has added 1,639 infections (wildly underreported) and another 57 corona deaths.
So far, 86.9% of the population 12 years old and older have one dose, 84.6% have two, and of those 18 years old and older 61.6% have a booster dose.
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A ‘National Vaccination Week’ is underway in Sweden as it seeks to get as many holdouts vaccinated as possible. There are about one-million adults in Sweden who have yet to be vaccinated.
Deputy Head of Department Sara Byfors:
“Today, 61% of the population over the age of 18 have taken their third vaccine dose. Since the vaccine is the single most important thing to protect against COVID, it is important that vaccination coverage continues to increase and that it is also distributed more evenly across the population.”
In Sweden, over 86% of seniors in care have had a booster dose and about 40% have had a fourth dose. The public health agency says COVID infections among seniors in care have decreased by 14%.
Intensive care admissions are dropping, with 31 admissions so far this week. That compares to an average of 40 in each of the three previous weeks.
After several weeks of increasing COVID fatalities, numbers did not increase in week 8. Sweden continues to struggle with a backlog of processing coronavirus deaths. The Swedish Public Health Agency says “higher proportion” of pandemic deaths were people who died with an infection and not because of one. The agency did not provide any specific numbers.
Sweden limits COVID testing to seniors in care and people admitted to hospital, making its infection numbers a crap shoot. That said, the national health agency says infections dropped 19% last week. It does admit the ‘dark figure’ is “greater now than ever before” due to limited testing. It notes there was even a 12% drop in testing numbers in week 9 with a 23% positivity percentage.
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Finland has registered 4,295 infections (underreported) and another 20 virus deaths since yesterday.
COVID hospitalizations (858) are unchanged.
To date, 80.1% of the total population have one dose, 76.5% have two, and 50.8% have a booster shot.
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Life in Finland will be “much more normal” by May or into June, according to the interim minister of Family Affairs and Social Services, Aki Lindén. However, speaking to YLE he cautioned, what a post-COVID normal would look like remains to be seen.
“Is it even normality that we are expecting? After all, Covid is a pandemic that has continued to resurface, for example, via new mutations.”
Lindén also cautioned that the pandemic is not over yet, noting Finland’s rising infection and hospitalization numbers.
🇫🇮/ 🇺🇦 🦠
The Finnish Institute for Health has earmarked COVID vaccine doses specifically for Ukrainian refugees who are arriving in the country. The World Health Organization had reported a surge in coronavirus cases just before Russia’s invasion and the subsequent carnage. The vaccination rate in Ukraine was also pretty low prior to the conflict, with just 35% of the population having two doses. European health authorities and the World Health Organization have urged countries taking in Ukrainian refugees to also provide them with COVID vaccination.
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In Norway, COVID hospitalizations (524) are down (-12) ICU numbers (45) and of those the number on a ventilator (22) are down (both -2).
Norge added 4,313 infections and 343 #coronavirus deaths. The major increase in fatalities is largely due to a retroactive reporting change. There is more information on that below.
To date, 80.3% of Norwegians aged 12 years old and older have one #COVID19 vaccine dose, 74.7% have two, and 53.8% have a booster dose.
The Norwegian Institute for Public Health has updated vaccination statistics across specific groups:
12 to 15 year olds - 54% have one vaccine dose.
16 to 17 year olds - 83% have one dose and 43% have two.
18 years old and older - 89% have two doses and 66% have three.
45 years old and older - 82% have been boosted.
65 years old and older - 90% have had a booster shot.
18 to 64 year olds in a high-risk population - 81% have a booster dose.
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Norway saw its highest ever number of COVID deaths of the entire pandemic last week, with the virus claiming 156 lives. This marks the fifth straight week pandemic deaths have increased. This comes as the total number of pandemic deaths has suddenly shot upward. This is due to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health changing how corona deaths are registered. The change is retroactive and has resulted in Norway’s total to date number of fatalities rising to 2,169. That is an increase of 357 more deaths due to the reporting change.
The NIPH says previously it only counted as a COVID death if there was an accompanying positive test result officially registered. But the agency says with the sheer saturation of Omicron infections people are dying from the virus without a positive test, which has led to pandemic deaths being underreported. It says most of the additional 357 fatalities were recorded in the last six weeks. The institute says, sadly, a lot of those deaths were elderly nursing home residents.
Director Frode Forland:
“It is not surprising that there are more COVID deaths now than in previous waves. This is because we have significantly higher infection pressure now. Although Omicron appears to be less fatal than previous variants, there are relatively more deaths when so many more people are infected.”
The NIPH says excess mortality rates, which were up in the last eight weeks of 2021, have returned to normal levels. Although, it adds there is potentially troubling sign with preliminary numbers indicating a larger than-expected number of pandemic deaths among seniors 85 years old and older in week 8. The NIPH says the median age of those who died last week was 86. It says 72% of last weeks fatalities died in a healthcare facility that was not a hospital and was “primarily a nursing home.”
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Norway’s huge Omicron wave may have peaked according to the latest pandemic snapshot from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. But while most COVID numbers ease coronavirus deaths continue to rise.
Hospitalizations dropped by 12% last week, with 474 people hospitalized due to a COVID infection. Admissions continue to be dominated by both ends of the age spectrum, with the highest number of new corona patients by age being seniors 85 years old and older. They are followed by infants under the age of one. Overall, hospitalizations were either stable or declining across most age groups, with the exception of small increases among children in the 1 to 5 years old and 6 to 11 years old groups. Intensive care admissions also declined, with 35 last week compared to the 49 from the week before.
The NIPH says there were 470 patients whose vaccination status was known. Of those, 23% were unvaccinated; 14% had two doses, and 60% had two doses and a booster. The institute says vaccinated patients who are hospitalized generally are elderly, have underlying health conditions, or are in a high-risk or vulnerable population.
COVID deaths in Norway have been increasing for five straight weeks. However, the NIPH says excess mortality rates remain at or below expected levels so far this year.
A major decrease in testing and a proliferation of at home self-testing kits makes COVID case numbers extremely unreliable. That said, the health agency reports 41,853 confirmed infections last week, a 36% drop from the week prior
On the variant front, the Omicron sub-strain BA.2 accounted for 84% of all sequenced positive test results in the last two weeks.
The NIPH cautions that while this current infection wave may have peaked hospitals will remain under pressure for some weeks yet. It is expecting to continue to see a high number of COVID patients, especially among older age groups.
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Germany saw another 294,931 infections and suffered 278 more pandemic deaths since yesterday’s update.
It added 1,913 COVID hospitalizations while ICU numbers (2,304) inched upward (+7).
So far, 76.5% of the total population have one dose, 75.8% have two, and 58.1% have a booster shot.
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Germany is betting that coronavirus will be with us for many more years to come. The German government has approved a plan to ensure continued COVID vaccine production until at least 2029. The plan allocates DKK 21 billion (about $4 billion Cdn) for contracts with five different vaccine manufacturers to maintain production capacity to ensure doses can be quickly produced and distributed. The five companies are BioNTech, CureVac/GSK, Wacker/CordenPharma, Celonic, and IDT.
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The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has released its latest COVID risk assessment map of the EU.
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New Zealand is preparing to ease its very strict entry requirements. On April 12, fully vaccinated Australians will be allowed to visit New Zealand without having to first serve a quarantine. Then on May 1, New Zealand will open the door a little wider, allowing fully vaccinated residents of 60 different countries to visit.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern:
“We have now been advised that it is safe to quickly go to the next step of the border reopening, to allow tourists to return. In short, we are ready to welcome the world back.”
As if this week people in certain critical occupations could enter New Zealand without facing mandatory quarantine.
New Zealand has so far enforced an iron-clad quarantine mandate supported by the military requiring incoming travelers to isolate for ten days.
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Canadian Transportation Minister Omar Alghabra says Canada has closed its airspace to all aircraft from Belarus. This follows Canada, the EU, the USA, and United Kingdom closing their airspace to Russian aircraft.
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As of April 1, Canada is ending its requirement that travelers have a negative test in hand before boarding their flight into the country. Fully vaccinated travelers will be able to enter the country almost like they would have prior to the pandemic. The one exception is that the requirement to use the ArriveCAN app remains in place.
Passengers may be picked out for random testing on arrival.
For unvaccinated travelers, they will still face two mandatory tests and a two week quarantine upon arrival.
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Canada reported 5,856 infections and suffered another 52 deaths on Wednesday. Note that infection numbers are likely very underreported.
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The Canadian vaccination effort has so far administered 32,279,066 1st vaccine doses (84.42% of the total population) while 31,068,925 people (81.26%) have two doses, and of those, 17,931,740 people are fully vaccinated with three doses.
In Ontario, COVID hospitalizations (644) fell (-98) while the number of severe infections in intensive care (199) has declined (-45). There were 16 more pandemic deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 16.37%
Quebec saw hospitalizations (1,034) drop (-128) while the number of severe infections in an ICU (50) dropped (-18). There were 19 more corona deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 9.33%
Newfoundland and Labrador has 27 COVID patients in hospital, an increase of 7, with five people in an ICU. The province is now restricting PCR testing to high-risk and vulnerable populations as well as essential workers like healthcare employees.
Nova Scotia has not updated its much more limited once-a-week COVID statistics.
New Brunswick saw hospitalizations (99) dip (-2) while ICU numbers (13) also dropped (-5). The province saw three more pandemic deaths.
Manitoba saw COVID hospitalizations (334) are down (-90) with 14 people in intensive care, a decrease of 8. There were four new pandemic deaths. The province has a five-day positivity percentage of 15.6%
Saskatchewan didn’t include hospitalization numbers in its latest weekly update. In the last week, there have been 28 more pandemic deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 11.8%.
COVID hospitalizations in Alberta (967) dropped (-120) while the number of people in an ICU (67) declined (-11). There have been 6 more corona deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 21.03%
B.C. saw COVID hospitalizations (298) fall (-107) while the number of people with severe infections in an ICU (49) also dipped (-9). There has been seven more pandemic deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 4.57%.