The Evening Report - Mar 16
Pandemic activity increases in Denmark. EU vaccine contracts under fire.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰🦠
Denmark is beginning to peel back the mysteries of long-COVID thanks to a study that has been going on for almost two years. The Statens Serum Institute says that a record number of people have participated in the ‘after-COVID study’ since it started one year and seven months ago.
More than 840,000 people in Denmark have taken part in the study, which involves answering a number of questionnaires making it the largest study of its kind in the world.
Study Researcher Anna Irene Vedel Sørensen:
“This has given us unique knowledge about how the Danes themselves have experienced being infected with covid-19. We can see that for some, it has had major consequences. For others, it has meant very little.”
As they sift through the data, some early results are being made public. 17 out of every 100 people infected in Denmark developed long-COVID. Women were more likely to get it than men, as were middle-aged people with severe infections requiring hospitalization. The symptoms lingered for a period of about six to twelve months after infection. Initially, the most common symptoms were a loss of taste and/or smell, fatigue, breathing difficulties, and a feeling of weakness in a person’s arms and legs.
But, once the Omicron variant arrived, the long-COVID picture changed. While only five out of every 100 infected people had long-COVID, Omicron infected vastly more people than previous variants meaning many people in Denmark were afflicted. People were less likely to lose their sense of taste or smell, and breathing problems were less an issue, as were suffering cognitive issues. Instead, those battling long-COVID after an Omicron infection tended to suffer fatigue and exhaustion.
Vaccination also seems to help ward off long-COVID as the study found that people with three doses were less likely to experience long-COVID than someone who was unvaccinated or even had just two doses.
The Statens Serum Institute says more details findings will be released soon. The institute also held a long-COVID symposium on Thursday this week.
🇪🇺🦠
There also seems to be a growing recognition of the impacts posed by long-COVID among European health authorities.
EU High Commissioner for Health Stella Kyriakides:
“Following recovery from COVID, it is estimated that 1 in 8 people still suffer from long-COVID. Together, we must step up research into its causes, consequences, and treatment with a coordinated European approach. We owe it to millions of our citizens to deliver.”
🇩🇰
Infection-related hospital admissions rose last week with 250 new COVID patients, up from 214 the week before. 19 of last week’s hospitalizations were vulnerable seniors in care. As has been the case for well over a year, seniors 70 to 89 years old continue to make up the largest proportion of new admissions.
Daily COVID hospitalizations (224) have increased slightly (+14), while the number of severe coronavirus infections in an ICU (7) and of those the number on a ventilator (1) are both unchanged day to day.
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The Statens Serum Institute says there has been a “sharp increase” in COVID activity over the last three weeks as caught in the country’s wastewater surveillance system. It notes there is “some uncertainty” with the results due to a reduction in the overall number of surveillance sites.
“The growth is primarily driven by the latest measurement last week and should therefore be interpreted with caution until next week's measurements are available.”
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There was also a slight increase in pandemic deaths last week, with 30 more lives lost to the virus, four more than the week prior. Five of those fatalities were seniors in care homes.
There were also two more coronavirus deaths reported in Thursday’s daily pandemic update.
The Statens Serum Institute says excess death rates were normal across all age groups last week.
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Now for the less reliable pandemic indicators. The SSI says there was a small increase in the number of confirmed infections last week based on very limited PCR testing. The COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people nudged upward to 15 compared to the previous week’s 13. The number of PCR tests also continues to drop, falling another 4%. But, the weekly positivity percentage increased from 9.2% to 11.1% week to week.
By age group, the highest COVID incidence rate continues to be among elderly seniors over 80 (39 cases per 100,000 people). At the same time, the highest positivity percentage was among those 50 to 59 years old (15%).
Among at-risk seniors in care homes, the number of confirmed infections increased last week to 39 from 16 the week before. The positivity percentage among vulnerable seniors in care also jumped from 6.8% to 14.3% from one week to the next.
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In its Thursday daily update, Denmark is reporting 304 new infections (underreported), including 119 reinfections.
With just 1,881 PCR tests taken on Wednesday, that equals a positivity percentage of 16.16%, which has increased day over day.
Remember, Denmark will mothball its once world-leading public COVID testing regime at the end of the month. This will effectively mean health authorities will be blind to pandemic developments and new variants.
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On the variant front, the recombinant XBB strains are dominant in Denmark, making up almost 58% of what sequencing is still being done on positive test results. Of those, the XBB.1.5 variant makes up the lion’s share (33%) of the recombinant activity.
“It should generally be noted that the reduced testing activity gives greater uncertainty about the distribution of variants.”
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The Statens Serum Institute’s sentinel surveillance shows that overall respiratory virus infection decreased in week 9, the week before last. Influenza, adenovirus, and metapneumovirus were the three most commonly detected respiratory viruses. The institute notes that influenza infections accounted for the largest proportion of respiratory virus activity last week.
The SSI decreases of influenza infections in recent weeks “stagnated” last week, albeit at a relatively high level, while flu-related hospitalizations continued to ease.
RS virus infections and hospitalizations were stable.
🇸🇪
Sweden has added 892 infections (wildly underreported) and 36 more corona deaths in the last week.
COVID hospitalizations (485) inched downward (-2).
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As of Wednesday this week, the Swedish Public Health Agency has removed the infection tracking requirement for businesses that care for or take care of people at high-risk of a severe COVID infection.
Until this point, businesses, like care homes, have been responsible for COVID testing and contact tracing in the event of a positive test. The country’s public health agency now says that job falls to the different Swedish regions and municipalities.
The public health authority says infection tracing “is no longer justified” because the “vast majority” of people in Sweden “have some form of immunity against the virus.” That and the pandemic picture has changed with a much lower risk of serious infection and death. It all results in, according to the agency, that infection tracing has limited effect and takes up to many resources.
Doctor Erik Sturegård:
“We have seen an extensive spread of COVID, influenza, and the RS virus this winter. By removing the infection tracing obligation for coronavirus, we now enable the businesses to prioritize resources for cases where they judge that infection tracing has an effect regardless of the cause.”
Last fall, Sweden had already restricted PCR testing to seniors in care and those being admitted to hospital.
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Some Swedish parents are taking their children abroad to get them COVID vaccines according to a report from Radio Sweden. In November of last year, the Swedish Public Health Agency stopped recommending children get a COVID vaccination unless they are in a vulnerable or high-risk population. With children unable to get vaccinated in Sweden, some parents told the Swedish media outlet that they and others are heading to places like Germany to get their kids the jab.
🇳🇴
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health is still not ruling out that another coronavirus infection wave is arriving. The institute says infection activity is at a low level. Due to a lack of testing, case numbers are a highly unreliable indicator. The agency says COVID hospitalizations have remained table while wastewater surveillance has shown that there has been a steady increase in virus activity. In Norway, wastewater surveillance sites only cover about 30% of the population.
“It still cannot be ruled out that we see early signs of a new wave. Which virus variants dominate and the immunity in the population determines when a wave comes and how big it will be.”
According to the NIPH, the recombinant XBB.1.5 variant is dominant in Norway, “and its prevalence is increasing rapidly.” It notes that in other countries where this strain is dominant, it has driven an increase of infections.
While Norway was buffeted by three different infection waves hitting more or less simultaneously over the holiday season, the good news is that influenza cases continue to fall. It says there are no signs of any new increase in flu activity since the Christmas holidays.
RS virus numbers are also continuing to drop. The number of young children under the age of 5 being hospitalized has “decreased significantly” in recent weeks.
“Hospitals and municipalities must be prepared that the flu epidemic may still last a few more weeks and that there may be a new wave of covid-19 infections and admissions during the spring.”
The institute says excess mortality and the number of deaths due to respiratory infections have also maintained a downward curve.
The health agency continues to encourage people to get vaccinated and take every precaution to keep themselves safe. This includes wearing a mask in crowded indoor spaces, especially for people at high-risk.
🇫🇮
Finland has registered 650 new infections and 23 more pandemic deaths in the last week.
🇩🇪
Germany recorded 7,627 new infections in its Thursday daily report while also suffering another 115 virus deaths.
It added 1,632 more hospitalizations while ICU numbers (1,195) edged upward (+5). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country ,pandemic patients are using 5.7%.
🇵🇱 🇱🇹 🇧🇬 🇭🇺/ 🇪🇺 💉
Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, and Bulgaria are balking at the European Union’s contract with Pfizer for COVID vaccine doses, essentially saying the contracted amount vastly exceeds the need in some countries.
Health Ministers of the four countries have issued an open letter urging the European Commission to negotiate a fairer and more transparent deal with Pfizer.
Polish Health Minister Adam Niedzielski says it is a complicated situation that needs fairness and transparency.
“People are asking how is it the number of doses is so high. It is not related to the number of infections and the epidemic situation in countries. We can see that there are some question marks about transparency. We want a straight explanation. Pfizer expects that the doses that are not delivered due to the reduction has to be paid even when they are not produced. From our point of view, it is unacceptable.”
The four health ministers suggest that non-delivery payments be renegotiated and surplus doses must be reduced. They suggest that European Union countries work together to balance the situation out with those who need doses buying from countries that have too many.
🇪🇺
After a Christmas peak and then another infection wave upswing in late January, influenza cases appear to now be falling across the EU, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
🇬🇧
The UK Health Security Agency says that “some indicators” suggest that COVID activity increased slightly last week.
COVID hospitalizations have increased from 9.50 per 100,000 people to 10.14 from week to week. The National Health Service pegs the increase in infection-related admissions at about 12% from one week to the next.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada recorded 8,688 new infections cases and another 129 coronavirus deaths in its latest weekly update.
The weekly positivity percentage is 11.2%
COVID hospitalizations dipped slightly across Canada. In the week ending March 7, the total number of hospital beds in use by a coronavirus patient dropped from 3,743 to 3,686. Most of those declines were in infection-related General admissions, which declined by 39 to 3,528 beds in use. Intensive care capacity dropped by 18 to 158. While the number of severely infected people on a ventilator eased to 86, a decline of 13 week over week.
Also, just stop for a second and look at the unrelenting strain on hospitals in Canada due just to coronavirus infections since the beginning of 2022.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇪🇺
The European natural gas use story is a tale of North versus South. Cold winter temperatures continued in Northern Europe while southern Europe enjoyed warmer, more spring-like weather. Natural gas reserves in the European Union slid to 56.6% as of March 12, down from 58.9% the week before.
The key for the EU is to get through March using as little gas as possible. Once the weather begins to warm up, heating demand eases, gas use diminishes, and it can start the serious work of building its gas reserves back up for next winter.
France has the least gas left in its tanks (32.5%), while Belgium (34%) isn’t far behind. Romania (43.7%) and Hungary (46.6%) are also under the 50% mark. Just slightly above are Italy (56.8%), the Czech Republic (58.3%), and the Netherlands (58.9%).
According to reports, the European Union plans to extend its existing 15% gas reduction target into next year. With the energy crisis far from over, the European Union is navigating “uncharted waters,” according to the EU High Commissioner of Energy Kadri Simson. She says that continuing to stress energy use reductions is “the best guarantee to achieve an adequate level of storage by November.”
The big caveat is that climate change kept Old Man Winter at bay as Europe recorded record-breaking unseasonably, high winter temperatures. This played a huge role in reducing energy demand, the EU meeting its gas reduction targets, and allowing Europe to skate through the winter with the highest level of natural gas reserves ever. But, Europe cannot bank on a repeat for the coming winter. The other big factor is that the European Union was able to pay huge amounts of money to divert LNG shipments to Europe to offset Russia turning the taps off. Next winter, the rest of the world, including China which has been busy nailing down long-term LNG contracts, will be more active in a much more competitive global natural gas market.
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The European Union Commission has adopted a revised EU Electricity Market design. European Union High Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson says it will benefit consumers and help achieve Europe’s goals of moving to clean green energy.
“It will preserve the benefits of our electricity market and help reduce the costs of producing and using energy in Europe, through more renewables.Two instruments will be key in enhancing the stability and predictability of energy costs across the EU. First, Power Purchase Agreements will improve access to markets and act as drivers for investment in renewables, essential to reach our EU Green Deal goals. Second, Member States will guarantee a stable price to producers and consumers through Contracts for Difference, which will foster support for new renewable energy investment.”
The legislative file now moves to the European Parliament.
🇳🇴
Norway is seeing a substantial financial windfall as it has become the biggest natural gas supplier to Europe. After Russia weaponized its energy exports last year in a failed effort to bring the EU to its knees, Europe severed its energy reliance on Russia. It turned to Norwegian gas via the newly built Baltic pipeline. Since then, Norway has registered a $50 billion profit, more than five times the oil and gas revenues in any normal year, due to its direct ownership of oil and gas licenses.
🇩🇪
As colder temperatures sweep across Germany, its gas reserves have slid down to 64.3%. So far in 2023, it has hit its own 20% gas reduction target in just a handful of weeks this year as homeowners crank up the heat driving up gas demand. Last month, wind energy production was lower than anticipated forcing Germany to fall back on gas-fueled power generation to ramp up electricity production adding to the gas demand.
🇫🇷
Power problems in France continue as everything that can go wrong seems to be going wrong. Battered by a major drought last summer, the energy crisis, followed by an excruciatingly long maintenance process for its nuclear power plants, has all sideswiped power production. Now 20 or so of those same plants are being inspected for cracks in piping, further exacerbating power production woes. Then add in relentless labour disputes over French pension reform that have hit virtually every sector in the country, including nuclear power plants.
France is usually a power exporter to neighbouring countries, but as its production problems mount, the tables have been turned as it now relies on power from Germany and the UK. If France cannot get its power production house in order it could soon seriously impair efforts to hit its gas reduction targets and build its reserves back up in time for whatever next winter brings.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇺🇸/ 🇷🇺
An American Reaper drone conducting surveillance in international airspace over the Black Sea was brought down by Russian SU-27 jets on Tuesday. U.S. European Command says the two Russian fighters “conducted an unsafe and unprofessional intercept” before one struck the drone’s propeller causing it to crash into the Black Sea.
“Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner. This incident demonstrates a lack of competence in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional.”
In response, Russia denies this is how the incident unfolded, a denial not born out by video of the incident released Thursday
Further inflaming tensions the Russian Navy has begun recovery efforts over the crash site, something the United States is not happy about.
🇬🇧 🇩🇪 🇪🇪/ 🇷🇺
Fighter jets from Britain and Germany were scrambled from an air base in Estonia on Tuesday to intercept two Russian aircraft near Estonian airspace in what NATO calls a “routine intercept.” It has identified the Russian aircraft as an II-78 and an AN-148.
🇳🇴/ 🇷🇺
Two Norwegian F-35s were also scrambled from an Estonian airbase on Tuesday morning to intercept a pair of Russian fighters just outside Norwegian airspace. The Norwegian Armed Forces said the fighters were dispatched from an air base in Evenes, Norway and quickly intercepted the two Russian planes, identified as a SU-24 and a MIG-23.
Norwegian Armed Forces say the F-35s stayed with the Russian fighters until they turned back to Russian airspace.
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
The Danish parliament has reached a broad agreement on a 7 billion Danish kroner fund (a shade under $1.4 billion Cdn) to pay for more weapons and other aid for Ukraine. Denmark is also sending its 9th weapons package to Ukrainian forces, as part of the deal.
The latest shipment includes:
5.56mm ammunition for handguns
An unspecified number of 12.7mm heavy machine guns
A “large quantity” of anti-tank mines
155mm artillery ammunition.
More air defense missiles
21 bomb disposal robots
Denmark will also buy 100 million Danish kroner (about $19 million Cdn) in non-lethal supplies from NATO for the Ukrainian army.
15 military generators
8,000 helmets and 15,000 sets of raingear
9 mobile workshops for the repair of larger military vehicles
6 hangar tents
Acting Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen:
“I am very happy that a broad majority in the Danish Parliament stands together to help Ukraine with its fight for freedom. It is a large donation package of 1 billion Danish kroner. Ukraine lacks ammunition, and the donation package therefore contains material that Ukraine has very specifically requested. I am proud that we in Denmark can meet their wish.”
He adds that preparations are underway to get the package together so that it can be delivered to Ukraine as soon as possible.
The armed forces have started preparing the donations so that the material can be handed over to Ukraine as soon as possible.
Danish politicians must still find the 7 billion Danish kroner that will go into the massive Danish ‘Ukraine fund’.
Foreign Affairs Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen:
“The money box for military donations is empty, and it needs to be filled up. There is no other way to do it this year than to take the monies from the treasury.”
While there is broad political support for continued help for Ukraine, some cracks appear among the political parties regarding where to find the money. Dipping into the treasury could mean things like increasing the deficit and using money earmarked to help developing countries. Some of the parties in parliament are balking at the idea.
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As part of Denmark’s continued efforts to help Ukraine, the Danish government continues to stake out a big role in rebuilding the country. This week, the Danish government announced a loan and guarantee scheme for Danish companies that want to help with reconstruction and restoring critical infrastructure.
Business minister Morten Bødskov:
“The point of the guarantee is that it becomes less risky for the Danish companies to use resources to help with the reconstruction of Ukraine.”
Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen says that Denmark isn’t “waiting for the last bullet to be fired” and is already helping with reconstruction work in Ukraine. He says the government is also working on ways to cooperate more closely with the Danish business community as far as helping rebuild what Russia has destroyed.
🇫🇮/ 🇹🇷
Today could be the day for Finland. It is beginning to sound like Turkey will relent and could hold a ratification vote on Finland’s NATO membership, possibly on Friday (today). But, Turkey seems to be holding firm on its opposition to Sweden’s bid to join the military alliance.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto is visiting Turkey on Thursday and Friday to meet with President Tayyip Erdogan to discuss NATO membership and other issues, according to the office of the Finnish president. Niinisto also told some media outlets that the Turkish government wanted him there on Friday to be present for the ratification vote.
If Turkey holds a sudden ratification vote and approves Finland’s NATO membership the last hurdle will be Hungary. The Hungarian government is embroiled in a dispute with the European Union over EU funding. There are reports it could scuttle next week’s parliamentary session due to the disagreement, which is when it had scheduled ratification votes on both Sweden and Finland’s NATO applications.
🇸🇪/ 🇫🇮 🇹🇷
Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson says he is not hiding the fact there would be disappointment from his country if Finland joins NATO without Sweden. He says Sweden would have preferred the two countries, who applied together, to have joined the military alliance together as well. But Kristersson says that Sweden is holding out hope for a speedy ratification vote from Turkey after its national election in May.
🇵🇱/ 🇺🇦
Poland continues to aggressively push for the increase of weapons shipments to Ukrainian forces. After successfully lobbying European countries to donate more modern Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Poland is now at the forefront of efforts to bolster the Ukrainian Air Force. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in a press conference this week that it may only be a matter of weeks before Poland donates MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. Poland has been working to create a coalition of countries to get more fighter jets to Ukraine.
Four MiG-29 fighters could be delivered by Poland “in the coming days,” with more to follow.
🇳🇱/ 🇺🇦
The Netherlands will donate two Alkmaar-class mine-hunting frigates to the Ukrainian Navy. The warships were built in the 1970s and 1980s in a deal struck between Belgium, France, and the Netherlands.
Ukrainian Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov made the announcement earlier this week.
It “Ukraine is a maritime state. We will defend our Black and Azov Seas as we do our land and skies. I'm very grateful to the Dutch people, Prime Minister Mark Rutte, and my colleague Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren for the decision to provide two Alkmaar-class minehunters for the Ukrainian Navy.”
However, the two frigates won’t be delivered to Ukraine until 2025 or after the war ends, as they are designed to clear out any Russian mines after hostilities have ceased. Ukrainians will be trained on how to operate the vessels later this year.
The Netherlands is also donating drone radars and an M3 amphibious bridge-building system to Ukraine. Those will be delivered directly by the industry.
🇱🇹/ 🇷🇺
In an overwhelmingly vote, the Lithuanian parliament has designated the privately run Russian Wagner mercenary group as a terrorist organization. 117 members of parliament voted for the move that also recognized that the militia group is a shadow tool of the Russian government, posing a threat to the security of the Lithuanian state.
Wagner mercenaries and the many convicts they have recruited to fill their ranks have been very active for Russia in the battle in Ukraine.
🇷🇸/ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺
Pressure is building on Serbia to adopt western sanctions against its traditional ally, Russia. Serbia is also a candidate country to join the European Union, adding another dimension to its relationship with Russia. This week, Serbian Economy Minister Rade Basta took to his social media to say it is time for Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia.
“Our country is already paying a high price for not imposing sanctions on Russia and it is becoming unsustainable. I, as a Minister of Economy, watch how much pressure is being put on Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, and for us to remain silent, cannot accept that. That is why I am for the introduction of sanctions to Russia, I stand with President Vučić in defense of state and national interests and I have absolute trust in him. That's why I ask the Government of Serbia and all ministers to make a statement on this matter.”
Basta implied that the ongoing war in Ukraine and the eventual toll on smaller nearby countries have been a significant factor in changing his stance on sanctions. There was a significant backlash after his comments, within Serbia and from Russian officials.
🇨🇦/ 🇺🇦
The Canadian government announced this week that it would donate 8,000 artillery shells, 12 air defense missiles, and more than 1,800 rounds of training ammunition for Leopard 1 battle tanks donated by Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands.
Canada has already donated eight Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine. The first four arrived in Poland last month and should be headed to Ukraine soon, with training for Ukrainian troops on how to use the tank almost complete. Defense Minister Anita Anand tweeted Thursday that the following four tanks are also on the way.
