The Evening Report - June 9
COVID warning signs in Denmark. Poland’s President doesn’t mince words.
Editors Note: Thank you for your patience. We now return to regularly scheduled programming.
🦠Pandemic🦠
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Good news and bad news on the pandemic front from Denmark’s health minister. Magnus Heunicke says for the second straight week the COVID contact number remains at 0.8.
But the bad news is that Heunicke says the coronavirus incidence rate and wastewater surveillance both point to a slightly increasing epidemic, albeit it “from a low starting point.” He says this is due to new COVID variants, specifically the Omicron sub-strain BA.5. The new variant now accounts for almost 17% of all sequenced positive test results. The true portion of BA.5 cases is likely higher due to very low testing and sequencing rates.
Heunicke says the variant is spreading very quickly, with cases doubling every nine days. He says the Staten Serum Instituted is forecasting BA.5 to become the dominant COVID strain in Denmark “during the summer.” But, the minister adds, that so far there is no sign that the variant causes anymore severe infection or anymore mortality than is already the case with existing Omicron strains. However, many epidemiological experts have already noted Omicron sub-variants, including BA.5, seem to be evolving more efficient ways to slip by or defeat antibody protections, which is a concern.
Heunicke says Danish health authorities continue to closely monitor the situation.
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The number of new COVID infections in Denmark has increased by 16% in the last week; this is the first time case numbers have risen since mid-February. The number of cases is very likely underreported due to low testing numbers, with the ‘real’ number likely higher.
Both the COVID incidence rate and positivity percentage are also on the rise, with a positivity percentage of 12% last week. However, in its daily update on Thursday, the Staten Serum Institute has the positivity percentage already increasing again, at 13.81% over the last seven days. It was just 10% two and a half weeks ago. It is also worth noting that the positivity percentage is rising while the number of PCR tests administered remains stable.
The COVID incident rate per 100,000 people has also increased in all five Danish regions led by Region Hovedstaden (Metro Copenhagen) with 71 per 100,000 residents followed by Region Sjælland at 67. The positivity percentage across all five regions is also heading upward again, with the highest (14.3%) in Region Midtjylland and the lowest (11%) in Region Nordjylland.
Looking at statistics by age, the virus incidence rate increased in every age group except those 15 years old and younger and 25 to 29 year olds. Those 40 years old and older still have the highest incidence of infection. It is a similarly story with the positivity percentage, which is increasing in every age group except children 15 years old and younger. Those 50 to 79 years old have the highest rate at 15%.
For people working in social services and the healthcare sectors, the COVID incidence rate and positivity percentage are also rising.
Two new COVID variants are driving the numbers upward, according to the Statens Serum Institute. BA.2.12.1 has gone from 2.6% of all sequenced positive test results to 12.66% in the last four weeks. BA.5 is also spreading very quickly, making up 16.88% of cases last week, a steep increase from the 0.9% just four weeks ago. The SSI says the BA.5 variant will become the dominant coronavirus strain in Denmark “in the coming weeks.” The institute also cautions that these numbers must be taken with caution as a “particularly large number of tests have yet to be sequenced” from last week.
The increasing share of cases by the two new variants is being reflected in the number of cases with BA.2, the strain that has dominated Denmark for months, as it has fallen from 60.9% of all sequenced positive test results to 41.3% in the last four weeks.
SSI Academic Director Tyra Grove Krause says the agency is working on a risk assessment for the two new variants.
“The increase in infection we are seeing is mainly related to the increase in BA.5, which is also growing in the rest of Europe. This means that we may well see further increases in infection activity in the coming time. However, there is no evidence that either BA.2.12.1 or BA.5 is more severe than the original omicron variants BA.1 or BA.2.”
New COVID hospitalizations continue to head in the other direction falling by 11% with 179 new patients last week. Seniors 70 to 89 years old continue to make up the highest portion of new admissions. Hospitalizations increased in four age groups those nine years old and younger, 20 to 29 year olds, those 50 to 59 years of age, and seniors 80 to 89 years old.
There were nine new intensive care admissions last week, down from 13 the week before.
Pandemic deaths are remaining stable with a preliminary 25 lives lost to the virus last week, one fewer than the week prior. The SSI says excess mortality rates remain at “normal levels.”
Among one of the most vulnerable populations in Denmark, seniors in care, COVID numbers all decreased last week, unfortunately that includes the number of tests taken. The positivity percentage edged down from 4.6% to 3.9% from one week to the next. There were 35 confirmed infection cases last week compared to 49 the week before. Five seniors in care died due to an infection last week, one less than the week prior.
Last week, coronavirus activity saw a slight increase nationally, according to COVID wastewater surveillance. Virus activity was also up slightly in four of the five Danish regions, with the exception of Region Nordjylland where activity dropped slightly.
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In Denmark, COVID hospitalizations (220) inched down (-2) while the number of severe infection cases in an ICU (8) is unchanged day to day and of those the number on a ventilator (5) crept up (+2).
COVID admissions to a psych ward (62) are also unchanged.
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Denmark reported 912 COVID infections (underreported), including 97 reinfections, and three more coronavirus deaths in the last day.
Yesterday there were 6,072 PCR tests taken equaling a positivity percentage of 15.01%, a marked increase.
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On the vaccination front, 81.9% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 80.4% have two, and 61.7% have a booster dose.
Just a reminder that these numbers haven’t moved much in a while. Partially because of a lack of demand but also because the Danish vaccination campaign is on pause, which means it is no longer issuing vaccination invitations although vaccine sites are still open and people can still get inoculated.
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With about one-million COVID vaccinations administered in Denmark so far this year and demand dropping like a rock, Ritzau is reporting that the country is on the hook for over 22 million vaccine doses in 2022. The doses must be purchased due to binding contracts, according to the Danish Staten Serum Institute. Documents from the Ministry of Health put a price tag of 2.8 billion Danish kroner (about half a billion dollars Canadian) on this year’s vaccination expenditure.
This is as Danish health authorities have already had to destroy at least one-million doses that reached their best before date. Roughly another five-million doses are expected to expire this summer.
University of Southern Denmark Professor of Health Economics Jes Søgaard spoke to Ritzau to say that he hopes “someone has a good explanation” for all of this.
“The first thing that comes to my mind is bad business acumen. And then there is the completely unsatisfactory use of taxpayers' money.”
In a written response to Ritzau, the Ministry of Health acknowledges that "more vaccines have been procured than were probably needed.”
The exact number of excess doses has yet to be determined as a fourth round of vaccinations will almost certainly have to be administered this fall. The Danish National Board of Health and the Staten Serum Institute have both confirmed plans for a fall vaccination campaign are already well underway.
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In its new “sentinel monitoring” of all reported respiratory infections, the three most common in week 21, two weeks ago, were parainfluenza, rhinovirus, and “other” coronaviruses.
🇸🇪
Sweden has added 1,564 infections (wildly underreported) and another 35 corona deaths in the last week.
The Swedish Public Health Agency has not updated vaccination statistics this week.
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The number of COVID hospitalizations in Sweden’s capital region is increasing. In its latest weekly assessment, Region Stockholm reports 132 pandemic patients in the last week, an increase of seven from the week before. There are three people in intensive care.
Chief Physician Johan Bratt says this is the second week in a row COVID hospitalizations have increased.
“It is still from relatively low numbers so it does not indicate a trend yet. But we follow the situation continuously. There are currently no other data indicating an increasing spread of infection. It is only if the number of COVID patients in our hospitals continues to increase for several weeks in a row that it is safe to talk about an increasing trend. It is still very important to get vaccinated. The vaccines provide good protection against serious infections.”
Sweden only provides COVID testing for seniors in care and people being admitted to hospitals. It detected 277 new infections in senior care homes last week.
The region has suffered the loss of another seven lives in the last week. It continues to warn that Sweden continues to struggle with a backlog of processing pandemic deaths as it has for many months now.
🇳🇴
Norway has added 375 infections (underreported) and reported no new deaths since yesterday’s update.
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health no longer reports daily hospitalization data but over the last seven days there were 86 COVID admissions, an increase of eight from the previous seven day period.
So far, 80.5% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one vaccine dose, 75% have two, and 54.8% have a booster dose.
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Norway’s COVID situation may be leveling off, but even the Norwegian Institute of Public Health is admitting to being uncertain about its pandemic picture. Norway has relied more and more on coronavirus home testing and people willing to report their results while PCR testing numbers diminish. This has created a hazy picture at best of its actual infection situation.
The NIPH says surveillance data indicates the infection curve is no longer dropping but is now leveling off. It advises agencies to prepare for any eventuality as “there is still a risk of new waves of COVID” especially with new variants spreading quickly across Europe. It cautions there is a risk these new virus strains may evade antibody protection, including by vaccination, to “a greater extent.”
One of those indicators is COVID hospitalizations, which were stable for the last five or six weeks. But last week there was a small increase in new infection admissions, 80 new patients compared to 75 the previous week. The median age for hospital admissions is 76.
The number of declared COVID outbreaks in a healthcare facility increased last week with 10 compared to four the week previous.
The number of COVID-related visits to doctors offices or emergency rooms increased slightly last week after seeing stable numbers for the previous three weeks.
The number of virus fatalities continues to edge downward, with 32 lives lost last week, which is four fewer than the week before; 69% of those deaths occurred in a “healthcare institution other than a hospital” primarily senior care homes.
🇫🇮
On Tuesday morning, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced she had tested positive. Marin said she had a fever the night before prompting her to get tested. She says her symptoms are mild and she is feeling fine.
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Finland registered 9,362 infections and 87 more virus deaths since its last update a week ago.
COVID hospitalizations (392) fell (-77).
To date, 80.3% of the total population has one vaccine dose, 77.2% have two, 53.2% have a 3rd, and 4.8% have a second booster dose.
💉🦠
Moderna announced this week that is updated COVID vaccine booster dose (mRNA-1273.214) induced a “superior neutralizing antibody response” against the Omicron variant within a month of being inoculated than its existing coronavirus vaccine. The company says the new booster was “generally well-tolerated” with side effects similar to its existing vaccine.
CEO Stéphane Bancel:
“We are thrilled to share the preliminary data analysis on mRNA-1273.214, which is the second demonstration of superiority of our bivalent booster platform against variants of concern and represents an innovation in the fight against COVID. Looking at this data, we anticipate more durable protection against variants of concern.”
The pharmaceutical company says it believes the booster dose not only delivers much stronger protection against Omicron variants, but that protection will also be more long-lasting. Moderna says it will submit its data on the new booster to regulators within the coming weeks with the hope of getting the improved vaccine dose out for use by late summer.
🇺🇸
As of mid-May this year, over 82 million doses of the COVID vaccine have been destroyed in the United States during the pandemic so far. NBC News reports that is roughly 11% of the entire American vaccine stockpile.
🇨🇳
After a brutal and protracted strict two-month COVID lockdown citizens in one Shanghai neighborhood had just one week to enjoy their freedom. A new coronavirus outbreak has resulted in the two-million residents living in the city’s Minhang district being ordered to return to lockdown. They also all have to get tested. China has a zero-COVID policy.
🇨🇦
COVID hospitalizations in Canada continue to drop. In the week ending June 6, the total number of hospital beds across the country occupied by a coronavirus patient fell by 622 to 3,628 total beds in use. Looking at general admissions, the numbers dropped from 4,057 to 3,435. For beds in use in intensive care units, there were 48 fewer beds in use that week, with 193. The number of people on a ventilator also decreased, dropping by 15 to a total of 97.
Canada reported 1,825 new infection cases on Wednesday while suffering the loss of another 25 lives to the virus.
The positivity percentage over the last seven days is 8.2%.
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The Canadian vaccination effort has so far administered 33,477,589 1st vaccine doses (87.55% of the total population) while 31,382,270 people (82.07%) have a 2nd dose, and of those, 20,245,043 people are fully vaccinated with three doses.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇳🇴/ 🇺🇦
More weapons are headed from Norway to Ukraine. The Norwegian Ministry of Defense confirmed this week that it has gifted Ukraine 22 M109 155mm self-propelled howitzers. It is also sending more gear, spare parts, and ammunition in its latest shipment to the war-torn country.
Norway will also train Ukrainian soldiers on how to use the big guns in Germany.
Minister of Defense, Bjørn Arild Gram says this is a “substantial contribution.”
“The Ukrainian Armed Forces depend on Western support and are in need of weapons and equipment to withstand Russian attacks. Ukraine has specifically requested this type of weapon. The development in the war in Ukraine now suggests that it is necessary to also donate heavier artillery and weapons’ systems.”
The M109 Howitzers came from a stockpile in storage after the Norwegian military upgraded their heavy weapons.
There are reports from Ukrainian news outlets that Norwegian heavy weapons are already in the country and are being out to use.
🇩🇰/ 🇸🇪 🇫🇮
The Danish parliament affirmed its unanimous support this week for both Sweden and Finland to join NATO. The government resolution sailed through a vote in the Folketing without a single vote against.
Foreign Affairs Minister Jeppe Kofod called it “a historic day for Danish foreign policy.”
“It is good for both NATO and Denmark’s security. I am pleased that a united Folketing has supported the desire of Finland and Sweden to join NATO.”
🇩🇰 🇫🇴 🇬🇱
Denmark will work with the Faroe Islands and Greenland to plug an air surveillance gap. The heads of state of the three countries met Thursday in Tórshavn, in the Faroe Islands. Among the issues on the table, the three countries “strongly condemned” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in particular the killing of civilians noting “deliberate attacks on civilians are a war crime.” To that end, the three countries have agreed to continue to support war crimes investigations and prosecutions for those responsible in Ukraine. They also adopted legislation to follow EU sanctions to “maintain maximum pressure on Russia” and keep the political and economic price “as high as possible for Putin.”
A memorandum of understanding was also signed, clearing the way for an “air warning system” to be set up on the Faroe Islands. There has been a radar gap over the islands since 2007 and the addition of a radar installation will help NATO keep better tabs on air traffic in the area.
Among the other issues, work is underway to include Greenland and the Faroe Islands in future NATO summits as well; the three nations agreed to work more closely together on issues relating to the Arctic, including security in the north, which bumps up against Russia.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
The Finnish government is seeking to improve security along its border with Russia. The first move will be to amend legislation to allow for the construction of border barriers and for other general improvements. Finland shares a 1,300 kilometer border with Russia. The country is rushing to improve its border security after Russia invaded Ukraine and it moved to join NATO, something Russia is not happy about.
🇵🇱/ 🇷🇺
Polish President Andrzej Duda gave a remarkable interview to the German daily Bild. In it, Duda called out Germany for sitting on its hands instead of really throwing its support behind Ukraine. He also left no uncertainty about how Poles feel about the situation.
“For us, Poles, the matter is clear. We must do everything in our power to stop imperialistic Russia. We have to help the Ukrainians today; we have to help them in every possible way, because our great hope and the great hope of the Baltic states is that Russian imperialism will break its teeth in Ukraine. He [Putin] will be stopped, and then we will have enough time to strengthen ourselves so that it will not be profitable to attack us. Today, the defense of Ukraine as an independent, sovereign, and free state, where people decide for themselves and decide about their own affairs is of fundamental importance to us.”
Not done there, Duda said, Poland is choosing this course of action to support Ukraine in any way it can with the knowledge that it is putting a target on the country’s back.
“It is quite clear to us what a potential Russian occupation means and what a Russian invasion means. Therefore, in Poland, there is no doubt that we must do everything to prevent the Russian invasion, and that we simply have to create such a military force in Poland that we would be able to defend ourselves to the very end, if it turns out that we will be attacked.”
The Polish President says they have sent billions of euros worth of support to Ukraine while also calling out Germany for not doing its fair share.
“We sent tanks from Poland to Ukraine; we practically sent two tank combat groups. There were over 240 tanks that the Ukrainian army could handle, because these are post-Soviet tanks that were at the disposal of our army. We shipped almost a hundred armored vehicles. We sent a lot of different types of weapons: from small arms to the individual use of soldiers, from rifles to huge amounts of ammunition, to missile weapons.”
As Russia rattles the nuclear saber, Duda is having none of it.
“Let me put it this way: if we are afraid of Russian nuclear weapons, it is best that we all give up immediately. Well, what if President Putin comes out and says: if you are not polite and do not allow us to extend the Russian sphere of influence to the Atlantic Ocean, to Lisbon, tomorrow we will drop nuclear bombs or launch nuclear missiles on European capitals? We will all get scared and say yes; we will now reconcile and implement Mr. Putin's guidelines and Russian politics throughout Europe, because we are afraid that they will drop an atomic bomb on us? Let me remind you: the world's nuclear potential, NATO's nuclear potential, will crush Russia, if used. Of course, it would be a disaster for the world. But Russia knows it too, and Putin knows it too.”
Dude also holds a dim view of European leaders who continue to try to negotiate with Putin.
“I am amazed at all the talks with Putin that are being held at the moment by Chancellor Scholz, by President Emmanuel Macron. These conversations are of no use. But what do they cause? They merely legitimize the man responsible for the crimes committed by the Russian army in Ukraine. He is responsible because he made the decision to send the army there, and these commanders, Vladimir Putin, are under him. Did anyone talk like that during World War II with Adolf Hitler? Did anyone say Adolf Hitler had to save face? That it must be done so that it would not be degrading to Adolf Hitler? I have not heard such things. He simply attacked Poland, attacked a large part of Europe, then attacked Soviet Russia, and everyone knew that he simply had to be defeated.”