The Evening Report - June 2
EU tables more sanctions. Monkeypox cases grow. COVID variants concern.
Editors Note: I am still juggling a busy period in my actual job and houseguests from Canada. So the newsletter will remain sporadic for at least one more week. Thanks for reading and bearing with me.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
The European Union has approved a sixth round of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. The new sanctions cut off three more Russian banks from the international transaction agency Swift, including Russia’s largest bank Sberbank. It adds more people to a growing list of individuals facing sanctions, and bans three Russian state-owned broadcasters.
It also seeks to block what European legislators say will. E two-thirds of oil and gas imports from Russia. However, the sanctions on Russian oil exempt oil delivered by pipeline in a concession won by Hungary.
The European Council also opened the door to selling off seized Russian assets to help foot the bill for rebuilding Ukraine after the war is over.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen:
“It is Putin who unleashed this atrocious war. The perpetrator must bear the cost of his behaviour. Seized assets of Russian oligarchs must go into rebuilding Ukraine.”
The deal also includes billions of euros in promised financial assistance to Ukraine, along with commitments to keep up donations of weapons and other materials to help battle Russian forces.
🇩🇰/ 🇪🇺
After a resounding win by the ‘Yes’ side in the Danish referendum ending 30 years of Denmark opting out of EU security and defense policy, the question is what happens now? First will come all the formalities and bureaucracy. Foreign Affairs Minister Jeppe Kofod says an official request will have to be made to the European Union for Denmark to now be included in security and defense policy. Kofod says once the request is made, Denmark should be admitted more or less immediately. He expects that to be done by July 1.
Danish politicians will also have to hammer out new defense legislation to include the new commitments Denmark will have to the European Union.
Then it becomes a matter of exactly how Denmark can pitch in something Danish politicians will begin to determine. Right now, the European Union is engaged in seven military missions in places like Bosnia, Somalia, and the Mediterranean. Danish soldiers might also play a role in the EU Emergency Force, a cohort of troops that can rapidly deploy to defend the European Union’s interests or respond to a crisis. Another possibility could see the country take a role in the logistics of EU troop movement across international borders.
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
Russia has cut off its gas supplies to both Germany and Denmark as of June 1 according to Germany’s Shell Energy Europe Ltd and Danish energy company, Ørsted. Both companies refused Gazprom’s demand that gas supplies be paid for in Russian rubles and not Euros.
Ørsted President and CEO Mads Nipper:
“At Ørsted, we stand firm in our refusal to pay in rubles, and we’ve been preparing for this scenario, so we still expect to be able to supply gas to our customers. The situation underpins the need for the EU to become independent of Russian gas by accelerating the build-out of renewable energy."
Ørsted also notes there is no gas pipeline running directly from Russia, so Gazprom cannot really cut off all gas supplies to Denmark “and it will thus still be possible for Denmark to get gas.” However, the company says this does mean that Denmark will have to purchase gas on the European gas market. It says it will continue to work with relevant authorities in reacting to this situation.
🇱🇹/ 🇺🇦 🇹🇷
One good turn deserves another. People in Lithuania crowdfunded almost €6 million in just three days in order to buy a Bayraktar combat drone for Ukrainian forces. Then, shortly after Lithuanian Minister of Defense Arvydas Anušauskas announced an agreement was signed with the Turkish Defense Agency to purchase the drone, the manufacturer announced it would donate the drone to Lithuania for free as long as the funds raised go to Ukraine for humanitarian aid.
Lithuanian Minister of Defense Arvydas Anušauskas:
“With the money we raised we will buy the needed ammunition for the Bayraktar and the rest of money will also go for support of Ukraine. Thank you Turkey.”
🇸🇪/ 🇺🇦
Sweden is sending more weapons and funding to help Ukraine fight off Russia’s invasion. Foreign Affairs Minister Ann Linde says anti-ship missiles, anti-tank weapons, and 12.7mm rifles along with ammunition will be sent to Ukrainian forces.
“This 4th support package also includes financial contributions to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The total amount includes more than 95 million euros. Russia’s war against Ukraine must stop!”
🇩🇪/ 🇺🇦
Germany will supply Ukraine with modern anti-aircraft missiles and radar systems. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed in the German parliament (Bundestag) this week that IRIS-T missiles are headed to Ukraine along with radar systems to locate and track enemy artillery.
🦠Monkeypox🦠
🇩🇰
Technically Denmark has recorded a third case of the monkeypox virus, but the official total will remain at two. The Statens Serum Institute confirmed a third monkeypox infection this week, but while the infected person tested positive in Denmark, they actually live in Sweden.
The Danish Agency for Patient Safety has done contact tracing for any close contacts in Denmark. But, the Danish health ministry says Swedish health authorities have now taken over the case and will be responsible for any further infection detection and that the official number of cases in Denmark will not change.
Health Minister Magnus Heunicke:
“The health authorities continue the work of monitoring, detecting, and isolating any new cases. It is positive that none of the infected yet seem to have passed on the infection within Denmark.”
The Statens Serum Institute’s latest monkeypox risk assessment concludes that there is a “low probability” of community spread of the monkeypox within Denmark. The SSI confirmed the country’s first case on May 23, followed by the second the next day.
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Denmark has now received its first 200 doses of the monkeypox vaccine. The Danish Health and Medicines Authority is also updating its guidelines to recommend that close contacts in infection cases should be vaccinated.
Health Minister Magnus Heunicke has taken to social media to thank his Dutch counterparts for helping out on the monkeypox vaccine front.
🇫🇮🦠
The Finnish Institute for Health has confirmed a second case of monkeypox in the country. The infected person had recently been traveling in Europe.
WHO🦠
The World Health Organization says it has confirmed 643 monkeypox cases so far, but there are more probable or suspected cases.
Infectious disease epidemiologist and WHO COVID technical lead Maria Van Kerkhove:
“As surveillance increases, as attention increases, we expect that more cases will be identified.”
Kerkhove says most monkeypox cases continue to be among gay or bisexual men.
“We should say that surveillance is biased towards the MSM community (Men who have sex with men) at the moment and we are working with countries to expand that surveillance to other types of clinics, ID clinics, and emergency departments.”
She says with a large number of cases across so many countries, it strongly suggests widespread human-to-human transmission that has likely been ongoing for several weeks, if not months.
🇬🇧🦠
The UK Health Security Agency says it has confirmed 190 monkeypox cases from May 6 to 30. Of those, it says 183 were in England, four in Scotland, two in Northern Ireland, and one in Wales. In England, 86% of cases (132 of 153) were in London and of those only two were women. 111 cases were confirmed to be men who were gay or bisexual.
The health agency says only 18% of cases had a travel history to a number of different European countries.
“Investigations to date have identified links to gay bars, saunas, and the use of dating apps in the UK and abroad. Investigations continue, but currently no single factor or exposure that links the cases has been identified.”
UKHSA says it is working with a number of agencies and partners in the MSM community, including the dating app Grindr, to communicate the monkeypox risk and related health advice.
🦠COVID Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
The COVID contact number (reinfection rate or R0) continues to nudge up and down over the last few weeks. Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke says the coronavirus R0 is 0.8 this week after dropping from 0.8 back to 0.7 last week. Heunicke says it continues to be a stable epidemic in Denmark.
That said, Heunicke also said that COVID wastewater surveillance shows that while virus activity is declining in three Danish regions, it is increasing in Region Sjælland and Region Nordjylland.
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The latest weekly pandemic assessment from the Statens Serum Institute is raising some concerns over the growth rate of two new COVID variants. The SSI notes the number of people in Denmark testing positive for either the BA.5 or BA.2.12.1 variant is increasing. In the last four weeks, the two new variants have gone from making up 1% or less of all sequenced positive test results to a combined 20%. The SSI says while BA.2 remains the dominant strain, BA.5 has increased on average by 135% in each of the last three weeks. For BA.2.12.1 the growth rate is 52% weekly.
It is still the omicron variant BA.2 that still makes up the majority of SARS-CoV-2 cases in Denmark. However, from week 17 to 20, the subvariants BA.5 have increased on average by 135% and BA.2.12.1 by 52% weekly.
SSI's Professional Director Tyra Grove Krause is warning that this could increase infection risk and trigger another infection wave as seen in other countries.
“SSI is following the situation closely. Both variants have in several other countries been associated with increases in infection due to their spread advantage. But here the same pattern is seen as for the original Omicron variants, that the increases in infection have not led to hospitalizations, to the same extent as we saw with, for example, the Delta variant. We also see the vast majority of cases among people who have not been infected before.”
The institute is also cautioning that with far fewer people getting PCR tested, the ‘true’ infection situation is much harder to ascertain. It also notes a “large number” of positive test results from last week that have yet to see sequencing results come back.
So far, Denmark continues to see a declining epidemic. Starting with the more reliable indicators, COVID hospital admissions fell by 19% to 201 last week. Seniors aged 70 to 79 years continue to make up the largest group of new hospitalizations. However, ICU admissions nudged upward last week, with 13 severe infection cases being admitted compared to 10 the previous week. And the number of people admitted specifically because of a coronavirus infection, as opposed to another medical reason but with an infection, has also risen from 41% to 53% from week to week.
There were 20 COVID deaths in week 21, a number the SSI calls preliminary, compared to 38 fatalities the week before.
The SSI has begun to publish what it calls sentinel surveillance, an overview of continuous monitoring of various respiratory infections. In week 20, parainfluenza, rhinovirus, and COVID were the three most common viruses detected.
Checking the more unreliable indicators, new infection cases dropped by 20% last week compared to the week prior. However, the positivity percentage remained stable at 10% last week. The number of PCR tests administered dropped by 21% week to week.
The COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people is highest (64) in Region Hovedstaden (Metro Copenhagen) and Region Sjælland (62). The positivity percentage increased slightly in Region Hovedstaden, Region Sjælland, and in Region Nordjylland. But there was little variation in the positivity percentage across the five Danish regions as they ranged from 9.8% (Region Hovedstaden) to 11.7% (Region Midtjylland).
Looking at the incidence rate by age and it is still highest among people 40 years old and older. The positivity percentage is increasing among those 16 to 29 years old and for those 60 to 79 years old. Children three to five years old have the lowest positivity percentage with 4%.
Among elderly seniors in care, the number of confirmed infections didn’t vary much week to week, going from 51 to 49 from one week to the next. There were a “tentative” six coronavirus deaths among nursing home residents last week, down from nine the week before.
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The number of COVID hospitalizations (245) has crept upward (+4) while the number of severe infection cases in an ICU (14) inched downward (-1) and of those the number on a ventilator (2) is unchanged day to day. Infection-related admissions to a psychiatric facility (72) edged up (+1).
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Denmark has reported 591 COVID infections (underreported), including 60 reinfections, and another four coronavirus deaths in the last day.
With 5,159 PCR tests taken on Wednesday that equals a positivity percentage of 11.45%, which is creeping upward.
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Denmark has donated 1.2 million doses of the Moderna COVID vaccine to Thailand. The first shipment of 462,800 doses left on Wednesday morning. Two more shipments of vaccine doses will soon follow.
SSI Deputy Director Ole Jensen:
“Fortunately, the milder Omicron variant has changed the development of the pandemic, so we no longer need all the vaccines. We can therefore donate vaccines to other countries. With the donation to Thailand, we have succeeded in donating over 10 million vaccines from Denmark.”
The donation also helps address a looming problem for the institute, with some five-million vaccine doses, most of them Moderna, due to expire this summer. If not used or donated, they would likely have to be destroyed.
🇸🇪
Sweden has added 1,418 infections and 37 more corona deaths in the last week. Total to date reported pandemic deaths in Sweden now exceed 19,000.
To date, 87.2% of those 12 years old and older in Sweden have one vaccine dose, 85.1% have two, and 65.4% have a booster shot.
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A fifth round of COVID vaccinations are coming this fall in Sweden, at least for certain vulnerable populations. The Swedish Public Health Agency says its study found a second booster dose increased protection against severe infection, hospitalization, and death to more than 90%. The agency studied the longevity of vaccine-induced protection in order to better determine when booster doses will be needed. The study focused on three groups seniors in care, elderly people receiving care at home, and seniors 65 years old and older.
Acting Department Head Lisa Brouwers:
“The study shows that among people in special housing or receiving home care, protection against becoming infected with COVID decreased a couple of months after the third dose. After the fourth dose, protection against becoming infected was restored to a level of about 65 percent, a result that is in line with what we expected.”
The study results found that vaccines offered 80% or higher protection against severe infection, hospitalization, and death within 30 days of vaccination. After a fourth dose, that protection ramped up to more than 90%.
“Although the spread of COVId decreased during the period of the study, it is clear that vaccination and taking the offered booster doses reduce the risk of serious illness and death. It is important to keep vaccination protection at a high level in groups that have an increased risk of serious illness, not least in the face of a possible increased infection spread.”
With that information in mind, the Swedish Public Health Agency has issued a vaccination strategy. It determined that a fifth vaccine dose will be needed among vulnerable populations “before a possible increased spread of infection during the autumn and winter season.”
For those under the age of 65, the agency does not recommend a second booster dose as the risk of serious infection is much lower. That said, the agency says “depending on individual factors” that younger people who want a second booster dose can get one.
🇫🇮
Finland has registered 13,018 new infections and 105 more virus deaths since its last update last Thursday.
COVID hospitalizations (469) have dipped (-17).
So far, 80.3% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 77.2% have two, 53% have a booster dose, and 4.6% have had a second booster shot.
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Finland is expanding eligibility for a second booster dose. The Finnish Institute for Health says people 70 to 79 years old who are in at-risk groups can now get a fourth COVID vaccine dose. People with diabetes, lung disease, heart disease, or who are very obese are among those the agency considered to be an at-risk group. The agency estimates there will be about 300,000 people in these groups.
Up until now, Finland had restricted a second booster dose for people 12 years old and older who are immunocompromised, seniors 80 years old and older, seniors in care, and elderly people receiving home care.
Chief Physician Hanna Nohynek:
“Irrespective of the epidemic situation, the risk of a disease requiring special medical care is slightly higher for people aged 70-79 at risk than for those over 80 who do not have similar diseases. With the expansion of the fourth dose, we are also preparing for the future. We cannot rule out the possibility that the more susceptible coronavirus variants will start circulating widely in the population, which may increase both the number of infections and the need for special medical care during the summer and early autumn.”
That said, the institute says the pandemic situation is “calming down” with the numbers of hospitalizations, intensive care patients, and deaths all declining.
However, it cautions that the arrival of new variants like BA.4 and BA.5, which seem to be driving infection increases in other European countries, could be the fly in the ointment. It is also counting on vaccination numbers and the seasonal effect, warmer summer weather and more people outside, to help keep any new infection waves at bay.
🇵🇹
The arrival of new Omicron variants, specifically the BA.5 strain, is driving infection numbers back up in Portugal. In the past week some 2,477 new cases per million population have been registered. For comparison, Denmark has an infection rate per million people of about 440.
The Portuguese Health Institute said this week that almost 90% of those infected have the new subvariant BA.5.
🇬🇷
Greece lifted most of its COVID restrictions this week. As of Wednesday, masks will no longer have to be worn in all indoor public places. However, masks must still be worn on all public transit, in nursing homes, and in hospitals. There will also be no COVID-related entry restrictions.
🇨🇾
Cyprus is lifting all COVID entry restrictions ahead of the summer tourism season. This means visitors will no longer be required to show a vaccine passport, wear a mask, or require a pre-departure negative COVID test. The country has seen tourism numbers drop by more than half since the pandemic arrived.
🇨🇦
COVID hospitalizations are dropping in Canada. In the week ending May 23, the total number of hospital beds used by an infection case fell from 5,728 to 4,964. For regular hospital admissions, the numbers fell by 764 to 4,672 beds. Looking at intensive care numbers, there was a decrease of 34 to 292 beds in use. However, the number of people on a ventilator was unchanged at 138.
On Wednesday, Canada reported 1,817 new infections while suffering another 33 deaths.
The weekly positivity percentage is sitting at 8.5%.
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The Canadian vaccination effort has so far administered 33,373,119 1st vaccine doses (87.28% of the total population) while 31,410,449 people (82.15%) have a 2nd dose, and of those, 20,137,806 people are fully vaccinated with three doses.
