The Evening Report - June 23rd
Europe’s disease control agency issues a dire warning about the Delta variant
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The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control issued an urgent plea to all EU nations today to accelerate their vaccination efforts. ECDC Director Andrea Ammon says they expect the much more contagious Delta variant to make up 90% of all COVID cases in the European Union by the end of August.
“Unfortunately, preliminary data shows that it can also infect individuals that have received only one dose of the currently available vaccines. It is very likely that the Delta variant will circulate extensively during the summer, particularly among younger individuals that are not targeted for vaccination. At this stage it becomes crucial that the 2nd vaccination dose is administered at the minimal interval.”
Ammon says more vulnerable people who are not vaccinated will be at risk of a serious infection and possibly death. She adds at the moment, too many people across the EU are not fully vaccinated and at risk.
In the ECDC’s new threat assessment of the Delta variant, it says the strain, based on available evidence, is 40-60% more contagious than the Alpha variant. It also “may be associated with a higher risk of hospitalizations.” As countries like Denmark lift virtually all COVID restrictions, Europe’s disease control agency urged EU nations to keep all coronavirus restrictions in place. If they don’t, it warns, there could be dire consequences.
“Modelling scenarios indicate that any relaxation over the summer months of the stringency of nonpharmaceutical measures that were in place in the EU/EEA in early June could lead to a fast and significant increase in daily cases in all age groups, with an associated increase in hospitalisations, and deaths, potentially reaching the same levels of the autumn of 2020 if no additional measure are taken.
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The European Union Commission has reached a deal with Moderna for another 150 million vaccine doses. The deal also includes “other COVID vaccine candidates from Moderna’s pipeline.” The new deal brings the total amount of Moderna doses under contract to the EU to a total of 460 million. It also gives the EU access to variant booster vaccine candidates, pending regulatory approval.
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Denmark’s Health Minister Magnus Heunicke says three spectators at the Denmark versus Belgium EURO 2020 game have tested positive for the Delta COVID variant. Heunicke is urging people who were in a certain section of the stands to get tested ASAP.
“About 4,000 spectators from the C-stand sections 1,2,3,4,6, and 7 are therefore encouraged to be PCR tested”
Yesterday, the Danish Agency for Patient Safety said there were at least 29 confirmed infections from the Danish games. They also said yesterday they couldn’t rule out that there might be more.
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Denmark has now caught the USA for percentage of the population with one vaccination dose, despite the American advantage with copious amounts of vaccine doses to draw from. Danske Bank Chief Analyst Mikael Olai Milhøj notes each country now has 53% of the population with one dose down. He says the difference is that while people in Denmark are charging out to get vaccinated in droves, the American effort has hit a wall of vaccine hesitancy.
The latest assessment from Our World in Data confirms Denmark has caught up to the USA on first doses administered. Canada has shot to the top and now leads all countries. However, the sobering statistic not shown here, especially with the most severe strain yet now circulating - is that just 22% of the global population has one vaccination dose.
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Denmark is reporting 223 COVID infections and no new coronavirus deaths in the last day.
Yesterday there were 378,370 total corona tests done, 79,595 PCR and 298,775 rapid, for a (PCR only) positivity percentage of 0.28%.
COVID hospitalizations (64) continue to head downward (-3) while the number of infected people in an ICU (15) also dropped (-3) of those the number on a ventilator (11) declined as well (-2).
Metro Copenhagen continues to see the most activity among the five health regions as it has for virtually the entire pandemic.
On the vaccination front to date, 3,114,453 1st dose vaccinations (53.2% of the population) have been administered while 1,703,645 people (29.1%) are now fully vaccinated.
Yesterday there were 73,293 total vaccinations done.
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A study by the Staten Serum Institut found that the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) had a much higher chance of hospitalization than any strain that preceded. The study, published in The Lancet today, used COVID registry data to identify over 50,000 infected people between January 1 and March 24. Examining genome data, the researchers identified everyone with the Alpha variant (34.5%) and found “an increased risk of hospitalization” among those with the variant than those without. However, the study also concluded that Denmark’s coronavirus lockdown helped limit spread and thus helped limit hospitalizations. The study concludes “our findings could support hospital preparedness and modelling of the projected impact of the epidemic in countries with uncontrolled spread of B.1.1.7.”
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A tenth assessment of Denmark’s healthcare system during the pandemic says things have largely returned to normal. The National Health Board report found that since Easter access to assessment, medical help, and things like cancer treatment had returned to pre-pandemic levels, with a few exceptions here and there.
Unit Manager Charlotte Hosbond:
"The health service is still doing well with activity at the usual level, and it is very positive that the activity has recovered so well after the second wave of the epidemic and is still at that level. There are still patients waiting for an investigation or treatment because their time was postponed during COVID."
On another pandemic-related note, the health board thinks COVID precautions like social distancing and hand washing have kept some hospital activity down. This is due to less illness circulating among the population.
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Sweden has added 504 infections and another eight corona deaths since yesterday’s update. The Swedish Public Health Agency is still warning about a reporting lag due to its infectious disease database issues. So take the numbers with a grain of salt.
To date 4,456,063 1st dose (54.4% of the population) and 2,643,174 2nd vaccine doses (32.3%) have been administered.
There are 69 people in an ICU across the country, which is four less than the last update.
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Sweden has updated guidelines for citizens and residents who are returning from travel abroad. Swedish citizens and permanent residents can travel in any Nordic country or elsewhere in the EU without requiring a negative test to enter the country or having to isolate upon return. But, if they venture outside that bubble to other riskier international destinations, then it is recommended to get tested upon return, and then again five days later. They should also stay home for the first seven days after getting back and avoid contact with others. Fully vaccinated people are exempt and can come and go as they please.
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Norway has added 109 COVID infections and had two more virus deaths since yesterday’s update.
COVID hospitalizations (31) are down (-3) ICU numbers (8) are up (+1) ventilator numbers (5) are unchanged.
To date 41.43% of Norwegians have had one dose and 27.33% have had both.
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While Norway has suffered two more coronavirus deaths since yesterday’s update, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health says there were no fatalities recorded last week. This is the first time since October of last year the country has seen no COVID deaths in a week.
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As of tomorrow, Norway’s digital vaccine passport, the koronasertifikatet will be updated to work with the EU digital COVID certificate. This will open Norway up for travel for tourists and visitors from all other European countries using the EU digital vaccine passport.
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In its weekly Wednesday major update Finland has registered 55 new infections in the last 24 hours. In the last seven days it has added 570 total infection and two more corona deaths.
COVID hospitalizations (33) have fallen (-10) in the last week while ICU numbers (5) have also dropped (-7).
To date 3,128,243 1st dose vaccinations (56.1% of the population) have been administered while 883,499 people (15.9%) are fully vaccinated.
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Finland’s Ministry of Social Affairs and Health says COVID restrictions will be eased as of tomorrow for bars and restaurants across the country. Curtailments on opening hours look to be relaxed if not removed entirely.
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As of this week the EU digital COVID certificate replaces Finland’s digital vaccine passport. The digital app has been updated to integrate the EU certificate. Finland is promising access to paper versions of the vaccine passport for those less tech-savvy but they won’t be available until mid-July at the latest.
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German Health Minister Jens Spahn says there were over one-million vaccinations administered across Germany yesterday. That is a feat that is becoming more and more regular there. Spahn says 43 million people in Germany (51.6%) have had one vaccine dose while 27 million (32.4%) have had both doses. He says the speed of the German vaccination effort “gives confidence for the summer.”
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And then there were two. Japanese national broadcaster NHK is reporting that a 2nd member of the Ugandan Olympic team has tested positive for COVID. NHK says the infected person is an athlete, but that has not been confirmed yet. One of the team’s coaches tested positive on arrival to Japan on Saturday, marking the first confirmed infection at the Tokyo Summer Games. Today also marks one month until the games begin.
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A new study from Oxford University, published in the Journal Cell, has found that the AstraZeneca and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines are broadly effective against the Delta and Kappa variants. The study focused on antibody abilities in the blood of fully vaccinated people to combat the variants.
According to the paper:
"There is no evidence of widespread escape suggesting that the current generation of vaccines will provide protection against the B.1.617 lineage. However, the concentration of neutralising antibodies in the blood was somewhat reduced, which may lead to some breakthrough infections.”
Last week a study from Public Health England came to a very similar conclusion.
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Canada reported 627 infections yesterday while suffering another 71 coronavirus deaths.
The Canadian vaccination campaign has administered 25,251,515 1st dose inoculations (66.32% of the total population) while 7,819,125 people (20.54%) are now fully vaccinated.
In Ontario today there were 255 infections and another 11 deaths. The Ford government is allowing people in hot spot areas to book second vaccinations early. The province is also mulling moving into the next phase of reopening two days early, or next Wednesday.
Quebec reported 127 infections and three more deaths. The province has opened up 2nd dose vaccinations for all adults in the province ahead of a further easing of restrictions.
In Atlantic Canada, New Brunswick registered one new infections. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador both saw no new infections.
Manitoba saw 69 infections and four more virus deaths yesterday.
There were 36 infections and no new deaths in Saskatchewan on Tuesday.
Alberta recorded 57 infections and another corona death yesterday.
B.C. reported 56 infections and had no new fatalities.