The Evening Report - June 21
Russia threatens the Baltic states. Denmark’s COVID numbers keep rising.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇱🇹 🇪🇪 🇱🇻/ 🇷🇺
A possible escalation point is developing between Lithuania and Russia. Lithuania has begun to enforce EU sanctions against Russia by cutting off supplies to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. This has infuriated Russia who is now making threats to Lithuania.
Chief of Staff in the Estonian Ministry of Defense, Kusti Salm, has confirmed to Finnish newspaper Iltalehti that Russia has carried simulated missile attacks against Estonia and the other Baltic nations this week. The paper also confirmed the information via sources at NATO.
This is on top of armed Russian military helicopters violating Lithuanian airspace and the airspace of other Baltic nations.
“Russian helicopters have committed several border violations. It has not been about ships fifty miles off the coast or far from planes, but from helicopters. The helicopter does not accidentally fly across the border. There have been several cases in recent days. In addition to border violations, there have been helicopter flights very close to the border.”
The Estonian Ministry of Defense considers the situation very serious. On Wednesday, NATO made a point of declaring that the Baltic states are members of the alliance and Article 5 will be enforced and the Baltic states defended should Russia attack.
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
The European Union’s Foreign Affairs Minister Josep Barrell is calling on Russia to stop blockading Ukrainian ports as it deliberately exacerbates a global food supply shortage. Borrell told Reuters that Russia is blocking the export of millions of tonnes of grain, something he says is a war crime.
“It is inconceivable that millions of tonnes of wheat are still blocked in Ukraine, while people in the rest of the world are starving. It is a real war crime, so I cannot imagine that it can last much longer.”
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺
The Danish Energy Agency has declared an ‘early warning’ due to concerns over Denmark’s supply of gas. This is a first step in a security process in the event of a serious gas supply crisis. This is due to the energy crisis brought about by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s using its oil and gas exports as a weapon to lash out at European sanctions, and the associated uncertainty over gas supplies. Russia has turned off the gas taps to several European countries and is also throttling the gas flowing from Russia to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline by around 60%.
By declaring an ‘early warning’ it indicates a possible looming situation involving a significant deterioration of gas supplies.
Deputy Director Martin Hansen:
“This is a serious situation we are in, and it has worsened with the reduced supplies from Russia to the European gas market. That is why, together with other EU countries, we are now declaring Early Warning to show timely diligence. We follow the development in the gas markets closely.”
Currently, Danish gas storages are about three-quarters full. The agency says it has plans in place that in an emergency situation there will be gas to keep homes heated in the winter. But it is also asking people in Denmark to conserve energy.
“There is a lot to save if you think about everyday life. You can use a little less hot water. And it is a good time to go through your house to ensure it is well insulated for the winter.”
🇸🇪/ 🇷🇺
Sweden has followed Denmark in sounding an ‘early warning’ over gas supply concerns. The country’s energy agency activated the first step in a three step emergency gas supply plan to prepare for possible natural gas shortages due to Russia throttling off supply.
🇩🇰/ NATO
The Danish military has issued a response to media reports in Denmark that a battalion of soldiers sent to reinforce NATO defenses in the Baltics arrived ill equipped.
Command of International Operations Colonel Jens Lønborg:
“It was a mistake that must not happen again, but which we solved as soon as possible, so that the soldiers again have the ammunition they need for training and maintenance of skills.”
Forsvaret blames a “logistical error” for a delay in shipments of training ammunition, which impacted the ability of Danish troops to take part in some exercises. It says the appropriate ammunition arrived in May and the situation was resolved.
In early May, Denmark sent 750 soldiers, military vehicles, armour, and equipment to a NATO forward operating base in Latvia.
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
Danish F-16 jets will be around for a few more years yet. The aircraft had been on the cusp of being phased out and sold off as Denmark’s Air Force transitioned to the new F-35 aircraft but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the game. The military will now extend the life of the F-16s at combat readiness until at least 2027.
Minister of Defense Morten Bødskov:
“Putin's aggression on Ukraine has changed Europe and the threats that we face. Denmark takes great responsibility for peace and security in the fight against Putin's threats. That is why we are increasing the Armed Forces' ability to contribute to Putin's deterrence. The security policy situation in Europe is fundamentally different than in 2016, when the Fighter Agreement was concluded. It requires action now. The defense of NATO territory to the east is more central than at any other time in recent memory. Therefore, we are extending the operational capacity of the F-16 while the new F-35 aircraft are being phased in.”
The move will mean an additional cost of about 1.1 billion Danish kroner (about $200 million Cdn) for spare parts, fuel, and other associated costs.
🇩🇰 🇺🇦
Danish Statsminister (PM) Mette Frederiksen addressed the Ukrainian parliament on Wednesday. In a video address, Frederiksen compared Ukraine’s situation to that of Denmark fighting for its freedom from oppression against the occupying Nazis in World War II. She applauded the strength of the Ukrainian people and called the war against Russia a defining moment for Europe.
You can see the Prime Minister’s address in English as well as read a transcript of her speech HERE.
🇩🇰/ 🇪🇺
Thus Denmark’s 30 year opting out of European Union defense policy comes to an end. After the historic and resounding win in the defense referendum, albeit with a low voter turnout, Denmark’s Foreign Affairs Minister Jeppe Kofod has officially informed the EU of the result. This formality allows Denmark to take its seat at the EU defense table on July 1, for the first time since the European Union was founded.
🇩🇪/ 🇺🇦
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Tuesday that the first heavy weapons shipment from Germany has arrived. He says Panzerhaubitze 2000s along with trained Ukrainian crews are now on the ground in Ukraine. He didn’t say exactly how many of the self-propelled howitzers had arrived. Germany has been lambasted for weeks now by Ukraine for dragging its feet on actually delivering on promises of weapons shipments. To give you some context, this appears to be the first shipment of the heavy artillery that Germany promised back in May.
Germany says more weapons are also coming including 30 Gepard self-propelled guns, IRIS-T air defense systems, M113 armored personnel carriers, 10,000 artillery shells, 53,000 anti-aircraft shells, and 5.8 million rounds of ammunition for small arms. This comes just days after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz paid his first visit to war-torn Ukraine.
🇫🇮 🇸🇪 🇹🇷
Talks between Sweden, Finland, and Turkey hosted by the NATO secretariat are continuing in an effort to address security concerns raised by Turkey. According to the office of the Finnish President headway is being made.
Finnish Foreign and Security Policy Adviser Petri Hakkarainen:
“There was a total of almost five hours of discussion. Clear progress has been made on some issues, and some still need to be agreed. The issue of the day will next be reviewed in each capital. The common goal is to continue the discussion as soon as possible.”
NATO will hold a summit in Spain at the end of the month and it was hoping to hold a vote to admit Sweden and Finland into the alliance, but it depends on getting Turkey onboard. All 30 NATO member countries must vote unanimously to accept a new nation member.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has called a press conference for Wednesday morning. The topic is Denmark’s COVID strategy in the months ahead. This will likely include promised details on another vaccination campaign for a fourth dose across the population to come this fall.
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The COVID contact number (reinfection rate or R0) remains at 1.1 for a second straight week according to Denmark’s Health Minister Magnus Heunicke. Anything above 1 means an increasing epidemic.
Heunicke says case numbers, the positivity percentage, and wastewater testing indicators all continue to increase.
“But we are still at a relatively low level compared to earlier in the year.”
He places the blame for rising coronavirus numbers on the BA.5 variant, which is now the dominant strain in Denmark. Heunicke says last week, 59% of all sequenced positive test results came back as BA.5.
“It seems to have a growth advantage compared to other variants, but there is still no evidence that it gives a more serious infection.”
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COVID hospitalizations (241) dipped slightly (-4) while the number of severe infection cases in an ICU (6) crept up (+2) of those the number on a ventilator (4) also inched up (+2). Infection admissions to a psych ward (47) edged down (-1).
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Denmark is reporting 2,141 COVID infections (underreported), including 320 reinfections, and three more coronavirus deaths in the last day.
Yesterday there were 10,428 PCR tests taken equaling a positivity percentage of 20.53%, the 7-day positivity percentage is 19.71%. In both cases the percentages continue to increase.
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Denmark has done well in protecting vulnerable seniors during the COVID epidemic, according to a report from the The Danish Center for Social Science Research but it also found room for improvement.
It say Danish safeguards did a pretty good job in protecting the country’s most vulnerable population, elderly seniors in care. But, it also recommended improvements in strengthening hygiene efforts in senior care homes. It also made an interesting finding that senior care home residents were more likely to get infected and had higher death rates than other seniors of the same age who were not in care. The report indicates the source of the infections came from care home employees and not visiting relatives.
It also noted challenges in getting care home staff protective equipment and getting residents access to COVID testing. It credits vaccines for saving a lot of lives among care home residents and recommends focusing on vaccines and hygiene in future pandemics. It also suggests a rethink in restricting access to visitors saying social deprivation was a major blow to those in care.
Project Manager Pia Kürstein Kjellberg:
“We have learned from the epidemic that hygiene is an important area of focus if we are to become better at protecting the elderly during future epidemics. This applies to both epidemics involving COVID and influenza.”
Looking at excess mortality, the number of deaths over the yearly average, and again Denmark scored pretty well. The center did find excess mortality rates in care homes during the winter of 2020/21. It was highest in Metro Copenhagen and roughly in line with previous influenza epidemics.
🇸🇪
The Swedish Public Health Agency only updates the country’s pandemic numbers once a week on Thursdays.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency has tabled two new possible pandemic forecasts, but their methodology has several massive holes in it. Last week, COVID cases increased in Sweden by about 16%, the first increase of note in many weeks. Now the public health agency’s two new potential scenarios both point to major concerns to come this fall.
In the first scenario, infections are assumed to remain “at relatively low levels” through the summer before cases “increase sharply” beginning at the end of August. In this scenario, the agency estimates the daily case load could reach an estimated 2,700 coronavirus infections per day by the end of September.
In the second scenario, things get even worse. In this one cases hit levels seen in the spring Omicron wave by the end of August before “increasing even steeper” reaching about 7,000 infections per day a month later.
Department Head Sara Byfors:
“Both scenarios indicate that the spread of infection may climb even steeper upwards at the end of August after summer holidays and vacations, and continue to rise during September. In order to keep the spread of infection as low as possible, it is important that everyone takes the recommended vaccine doses. The pandemic is not over. There needs to be continued preparedness in society for the spread of infection to increase, and it is the vaccines that protect against serious illness and death from coronavirus.”
But Byfors is playing down any concerns about a parallel rise in hospitalizations and the associated pressure on the health care system.
“The risk that the infection spread would result in a greater need for care is considered small, as many have been vaccinated or have recently had COVID. But it is still very important to maintain a high level of preparedness.”
However, the two scenarios have two huge flaws. One is the lack of COVID testing. Sweden only allows access to PCR testing for seniors in care and people being admitted to hospital; this leaves them blind to any actual infection trends in the general population. The agency admits this blind spot as such in cautioning that the “dark figure” presents a major unknown. If only they had the power to do something about that. The second, and perhaps more stunning oversight, is that both scenarios are built on the assumption that it is the BA.2 variant that will be dominant. It doesn’t account for any new more dangerous variants including BA.5, which is currently on pace to become the dominant strain across Europe within weeks. We already know the BA.5 strain evades immunity to a higher degree than previous variants and is even more contagious than BA.2 as a result.
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After tabling potential pandemic scenarios for the months ahead based on the BA.2 variant being dominant the Swedish Public Health Agency notes that the BA.5 variant will soon take over in a separate preliminary report. The data from weeks 20 to 22 found that the BA.5 variant accounts for 16.6% of all sequenced positive test results. That is a sharp increase from being 2.8% of infections just two weeks previous. It also adds that the BA.2 variant is on the decline.
As in Denmark, and elsewhere, the agency says its data shows the new variant is much better at evading immunity protections giving in a competitive advantage over BA.2. It says this will also mean a higher risk of rising numbers of reinfections.
The agency cautions this is a preliminary report and the data for weeks 20 through 22 are not complete meaning at best this is a partial BA.5 picture.
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Sales of antibiotics were much lower than usual in 2021, as were incidents of antibiotic resistant infections, according to the Swedish Public Health Agency. Sweden has been tracking antibiotic sales and cases of infections resistant to antibiotics since 2011. The latest annual report for 2021 attributes the lower numbers to the COVID pandemic. Concern for personal safety and COVID restrictions meant a lot less personal contact. Less personal contact, less disease and infections being passed around, leading to a much lower need to treat them with antibiotics.
The report does not, while still very low antibiotic sales and resistant infections increased from 2020 due to society gradually returning to normal after COVID put the world in a lockdown.
On antibiotic resistant infections, the agency says while the situation is good in Sweden at the moment, with fairly low incident rates, antibiotic resistant infections continue to increase globally and pose a significant health threat.
Unit Head Andreas Sandgren:
“As with the COVID pandemic, antibiotic resistance is a global health threat that requires joint efforts. Therefore, this is a priority issue for Sweden, and we participate in various ways in supporting other countries in the implementation of the global action plan against antimicrobial resistance. We must also continue to work for smarter use of antibiotics and prevention of infection spread through good hygiene routines and vaccinations, both in society and in healthcare.”
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After several weeks of rising COVID hospitalizations numbers dipped again in Sweden’s capital region. Region Stockholm says there were 122 hospitalized infection patients last week; that is 16 fewer than the week before. It is a roughly 50/50 split between people admitted directly because of a severe infections and people who are infected but sent to hospital for a non-pandemic reason. There are three people in intensive care.
The region continues to see unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people “over represented” in hospitalization numbers.
Chief Physician Johan Bratt:
“We now see that the number of COVID patients at our hospitals varies. This week there is a reduction, which is gratifying for the summer, both for patients and for healthcare staff. But we are prepared for the number of pandemic patients to vary over the summer. I want to continue to emphasize how important it is that people get vaccinated. It is especially important for the elderly and people who belong to risk groups and thus have a greater risk of a more serious infection. This also applies to anyone who is in close contact with seniors and vulnerable populations.”
The region confirmed 700 more infections last week, including about 209 that were backlogged from earlier in the year. Nine of those cases were in senior care homes. Again, these numbers are wildly underreported due to Sweden’s lack of testing.
There were five more coronavirus deaths last week in Region Stockholm. It continues to note that Sweden is still struggling with a backlog of processing COVID deaths as it has for many months now.
🇫🇮
The Finnish Institute for Health only updates Finland’s COVID data once a week, every Thursday.
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Finland will lift all remaining COVID restrictions at its borders as of June 30. The Finnish Ministry of Interior says that all travelers arriving in Finland from outside of the European Union and Schengen zone will no longer be required to show proof of vaccination or have a negative COVID test to enter the country.
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The Finnish Institute for Health says the COVID pandemic continued to keep a lid on other infectious diseases in 2021 although that began to change late in the year. Like 2020, COVID restrictions, fewer social contacts, routine hand washing, and other pandemic related habits meant that the usual array of infectious diseases and respiratory infections were very limited. For example there was no usual influenza season last year continuing a trend since COVID arrived. However, the institute does note that in December and into the spring of 2022 influenza did come roaring back.
The institute’s disease register recorded 579,000 infectious disease reports in 2021, of which 425,000 were coronavirus related.
🇩🇪
Germany registered 123,097 new infections and suffered another 182 pandemic deaths since its last report on Monday.
It has added 1,424 COVID hospitalizations and ICU numbers (745) have increased (+23). As a percentage of of all intensive care beds in the country coronavirus patients are using 3.4%.
So far, 77.6% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 75.9% have two, and 59.9% have a booster dose.
🦠🌏
A number of studies are ringing alarm bells over the rising risk of reinfection and the impact having two or more bouts of COVID can have. Multiple studies from Denmark to the United States have found that Omicron sub-variants, most notably BA.5 and BA.2.12.1, are evolving into better ways to evade immunity. To put it simply, the strains are becoming better at dodging protections from vaccination and from having a previous infection.
A recent threat BA.4 and BA.5 risk assessment from the Danish Staten Serum Institute found that 25% of reinfections were people who had been in the spring. That would have been either the parent BA.1 Omicron strain or the subsequent BA.2 that rose to dominance. Previously, antibody protection from being infected was for most people, very high. So high in fact, health authorities in the Nordic countries and elsewhere actually counted infections on par with one vaccine dose. But that advantage seems to be slipping.
To make matters worse, a new study, which you can find HERE, has found that the risks of suffering hospitalization, death, or struggling with a lingering array of health issues after having COVID rises each time a person gets infected.
The study says that compared to those with first infection, those with reinfection(s) exhibited increased risk of everything from fatigue, a common lingering COVID after effect, to more serious issues like heart, liver, and blood disorders, diabetes, and even mental health challenges.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada has gone to a once a week COVID update schedule updating its numbers every Friday.
🦠Monkeypox🦠
🇩🇰
In the last two days five more cases of monkeypox infections have been confirmed in Denmark by the country’s health ministry. That makes a total of 12 cases officially registered in Denmark. Unofficially it is 14, as two cases were people who tested positive in Denmark but who were residents of another country.
Health Minister Magnus Heunicke says health authorities have now deployed the monkeypox vaccine.
“There is still a low probability of spreading monkeypox in the general population in Denmark. The health authorities continue their efforts with laboratory analyzes for suspected cases, detection, and thorough guidance. 17 people have now received the vaccine against monkey smallpox because they were in very close contact with infected people.”
Heunicke says it is a big task containing each infection case and then chasing down their close contacts.