The Evening Report - July 7
BA.5 wave builds in the Nordics. Sweden and Finland move closer to joining NATO.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
The COVID contact rate (reinfection rate or R0) in Denmark remains at 0.8 for a 2nd straight week according to the Danish health ministry. It says that this “indicates that the epidemic is slowing down.”
However, the ministry also cautions that the COVID incidence rate continues to increase albeit “not to the same extent as before.”
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Pandemic numbers continue to mount in Denmark according to the latest weekly assessment from the Statens Serum Institute. New infections jumped by 27% last week compared to the week before. The positivity percentage also continued to climb going from 22% to 23% from one week to the next this despite a 23% increase in PCR testing, which is not a good sign.
Region Syddanmark had the highest COVID incidence rate per 100,000 residents with 255, a big increase from the 131 of the week prior. It was followed by Region Hovedstaden with an incidence rate of 233. Overall, the incidence rate increased across all five Danish regions.
The positivity percentage rose in three regions, Region Syddanmark, Region Midtjylland, and Region Sjælland while it was stable or slightly declining in Region Hovedstaden and Region Nordjylland. Region Syddanmark had the highest positivity percentage last week 25.3%, also a big jump from the 19.9% of the week before.
Looking at infection statistics by age, the virus incidence rate increased across the board but was most pronounced among those 16 to 29 years old. Overall, the highest incidence rate, 335 cases per 100,000 people, was in the 50 to 69 year old age group. People 25 to 29 years old and the 70 to 79 year old age group were just behind with an incidence rate of 283.
The picture was more mixed looking at the positivity percentage by age group. The rate declined for the polar opposite sides of the age spectrum among infants under two years old and for elderly seniors over 80. It was stable for those 30 to 49 and 70 to 79 years of age. For all other age groups the positivity percentage was on the rise. The highest rate, 28%, was seen among the 50 to 69 year old age group.
New pandemic related hospital admissions are also rising, up 9% last week. Seniors 70 to 89 years old continue to make up the largest group among new coronavirus hospitalizations. ICU admissions were stable last week with 12 new severe infection cases in intensive care. The rate of admissions directly due to an infection continues to climb up to 62% last week with the remaining 38% being people testing positive but seeking hospital care for a non-pandemic reason.
Pandemic fatalities increased slightly with 31 deaths last week up from the 29 lives lost the week before.
Looking at the country’s most vulnerable, seniors in care, confirmed cases were stable last week with 102. The positivity percentage dropped from 5.7% to 3.6% week to week even as testing increased by 7.1%. This may be a reflection of opening up booster doses for vulnerable seniors and others at risk. However, the good news was tempered slightly when looking at the regional data with infections doubling along seniors in care in Metro Copenhagen. This is contrasted by marked decreases in the other four regions. Pandemic fatalities were also stable week to week with seven lives lost last week, up one from the week before.
The numbers continue to rise among senior care home staff and healthcare workers. While testing rates are increasing in broth groups so is the positivity percentage. Among senior care home staff the positivity percentage is 17.8% and for healthcare workers it has hit 25.1%, up by four percentage points.
As you might have guessed the infection wave continues to be driven by the BA.5 variant, which made up 80% of all sequenced positive test results last week. Rates of BA.4 and BA.2.12.1 variants have fallen. The SSI adds the usual caveat that “a particularly large number of samples have not yet been sequenced” from last week.
Some positive signs are being seen in COVID wastewater surveillance with a decrease in virus activity nationally. Concentrations of the coronavirus declined in four regions with levels in Region Syddanmark stabilizing week to week.
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As a BA.5 driven infection wave sweeps through Europe and infection numbers rise in Denmark, the number of daily PCR tests is being decreased. Due to what it calls low testing activity the Danish Agency for Security of Supply says daily PCR testing capacity will be scaled down from 20,000 tests per day to 10,000. The agency says people will still be able to get a PCR test through the summer and if needed it can “at short notice” scale testing capacity back up.
The test sites will continue to be open over the summer, so you can be tested if you are covered by the Danish Health and Medicines Authority's test recommendations or need a PCR test in connection with trips abroad. The authorities may, at short notice, scale up the PCR capacity with further tests if the test activity increases.
Director Lisbet Zilmer-Johns:
“We are turning down the temperature, where there are still open test sites. At the same time, we have a contingency plan that means that we are prepared and can turn up the test capacity again if the epidemic develops and there is a need for it.”
It says in the last week there were approximately 6,800 PCR tests per day, that is below the threshold dictating a reduction in testing capacity as laid out in a new testing strategy unveiled earlier this year. Daily testing capacity can be increased back to 20,000 if testing activity for three days in a week over the summer exceeds 7,500 daily PCR tests.
It is important to note that the reduction in testing capacity is only impacting tests available for the general population. Testing capacity within the healthcare sector remains unchanged.
Also be aware that opening hours of the testing sites remaining open may be shortened due to summer staffing. Addresses and opening hours for the test centers are updated regularly on coronasmitte.dk.
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It looks like the concern from Danish health officials that the summer festival season could be an x-factor in driving up infection spread are coming to fruition. The Danish Agency for Patient Safety says it has confirmed 476 COVID infections at the famed Roskilde Music Festival. The agency says this includes people testing positive after the festival and those who say they were contagious while attending the poplar music event.
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COVID hospitalizations (337) are up (+24) while the number of severe infection cases in an ICU (12) crept upward (+2) of those the number on a ventilator (4) dipped slightly. Pandemic admissions to a psych ward (47) also crept up (+1).
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Denmark reported 2,672 COVID infections (underreported), including 678 reinfections, and 6 morecoronavirus deaths in the last day.
There were 9,920 PCR tests taken yesterday equaling a positivity percentage of 26.93%, over 7 days it is 23.65%. In both cases it has increased.
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Sentinel monitoring by the Statens Serum Institute shows that respiratory infections, other than COVID, have decreased last week. Rhinovirus and parainfluenza continue to be the two most common positive test results among people showing up at their family doctors concerned about infection symptoms.
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The Danish Statens Serum Institute is doing a post-mortem on this year’s rather unusual influenza season. The agency notes a number if peculiarities including how late the season arrives, the record high number of cases, and the most testing of any flu season to date. But, while there were some oddities the agency says the overall pattern was more or less what is usually seen in Denmark.
Ward Doctor Lasse S. Vestergaard says while in many ways it was an unusual influenza season it was not an unusually harsh one.
“On the one hand, the number of confirmed cases was higher than in any previous season. But an important part of the explanation is that more than twice as many than usual were tested for flu throughout the season. For the same reason, therefore, more influenza-related hospitalizations were also seen than usual, but still fewer than we saw in the serious flu season in 2017/2018. Similarly, the number of flu-related deaths was low compared to previous seasons. Overall, this year's flu epidemic must therefore be said to have been milder than normal influenza epidemics.”
Another reason, he says, is that due to the late arrival in the spring the immunity from a huge flu vaccination campaign in the fall had largely waned, especially for seniors.
🇸🇪
Sweden has added 4,205 infections (wildly underreported) and another 20 corona deaths in the last week. Pandemic deaths are also likely underreported due to Sweden’s continued backlogs in processing virus deaths.
The Swedish Public Health Agency hasn’t updated vaccination statistics since June 23rd.
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The BA.5 infection wave continues to build in Sweden. The Swedish Public Health Agency says pandemic indicators continue to rise showing that the infection spread is increasing. In its latest pandemic snapshot, the agency says the number of confirmed cases jumped by 33% last week while the positivity percentage shot up by three percentage points to 21% from one week to the next. The number of PCR tests also increased by 18% although Sweden continues to restrict testing to seniors in care and people being admitted to hospital meaning the true pandemic picture is virtually unknown but likely much worse than the numbers suggest.
This is the fifth week of mounting COVID indicators.
Director General Karin Tegmark Wisell:
“As we have a high vaccination coverage in Sweden, we believe that society will withstand the increased spread of infection well, but it is important that more people get vaccinated and follow the recommendations for booster doses. The new sub-variant can be passed on despite vaccination and past infection, but we know that vaccination as well as previous infection protects very well against serious illness and death.”
The agency says there is some kind of a delay in hospitalization statistics but there were at least three new intensive care admissions last week. It also reports that several regions have registered a rising number of pandemic hospitalizations.
Sweden continues to struggle with a backlog of processing COVID deaths and so far, there were at least 21 pandemic fatalities last week.
“In addition to vaccination, it is extra important that everyone thinks about protecting our vulnerable and high-risk populations. For those at risk, an infection can have serious consequences and the consequences of an increased number of infection cases can also add to pressure on hospitals during the holiday period, as many employees are on much-needed holidays. Also, remember to stay home if you are sick with symptoms.”
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Where you live and your financial means play a major role in the risk of having a severe coronavirus infection requiring treatment in intensive care according to a new Swedish study. The Swedish Public Health Agency teamed up with Department of Public Health Sciences and the Department of Cultural Geography at Stockholm University to look at infection risk through the lens of socioeconomics. They found that those living in rural areas and in middle to upper class neighbourhoods in densely populated urban areas had the lowest risk of having a severe infection. But the risk for people below the poverty line and especially in immigrant neighborhoods in packed urban areas was almost three times higher.
Acting Department Head Lisa Brouwers:
“The social situation and characteristics in the environment have been important and above all it has been about being able to keep your distance from others. The opportunity to work from home has been of great importance in order to reduce the number of contacts outside the home. At the same time, conditions such as overcrowding and multi-generational housing in certain residential areas have increased the infection spread.”
The study notes that over the course of the pandemic while the overall trend remained the risk decreased over time. Possible explanations include infection control measures, which Sweden adopted much later than other countries, and built up immunity via infection or vaccination.
🇫🇮
Finland has registered 12,875 infections (underreported) and 66 more virus deaths in the last week.
COVID hospitalizations (483) are up (+19).
So far, 80.3% of the total population have one dose, 77.2% have two, 53.5% have one booster, and 6.2% have a second.
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The Finnish Institute for Health has tabled its plans to begin offering a fourth vaccine dose by the end of the summer to try and minimize an expected winter infection wave. It will begin on August 15, when seniors 65 years old and older will get a chance to get another booster. Then on September 1, the offer expands to include seniors 60 years old and older as well as anyone 12 to 59 years old who is in a high-risk or vulnerable population.
Chief Physician Hanna Nohynek:
“The corona epidemic will very likely accelerate in the fall. In addition, the protection of older age groups and those belonging to high-risk groups against severe infection is slowly starting to wane. In light of the current information, offering a fourth doses is warranted.”
But, at the same time the agency is ruling out extending the offer of a second booster dose to everyone under the age of 60.
“Severe infection is rare among younger people, and the protection against serious infection provided by three doses is still very good for them.”
While it announced plans for rolling out a fourth vaccine dose, the health agency is also sounding its concern over a lack of uptake for a third dose. It says just 46% of those 18 to 49 years old in Finland have had a booster shot.
It is urging people to get vaccinated noting the vaccine offers very strong protection against a severe infection resulting in hospitalization and death.
🇳🇴
Norway has added 432 infections and reported no new virus deaths in the last day.
There were (346) COVID admissions in the last 7 days (+48). The Norwegian Institute of Public Health no longer reports daily hospitalization numbers.
So far, 80.5% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one dose, 75.1% have two, and 56.2% have a booster.
🇩🇪
Germany recorded 135,402 infections and another 108 pandemic deaths on Wednesday.
It added 1,430 more hospitalizations while ICU numbers (1,045) dipped (-22). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country infection cases are using 4.9%.
To date, 77.8% of the total population has one vaccine dose, 76.2% have two, and 61.7% have a booster dose.
WHO🦠 🌎
The World Health Organization says globally COVID cases have increased by nearly 30% in the last two weeks.
Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus:
“In Europe and America, BA.4 and BA.5 are driving waves. In countries like India a new sub lineage of BA.2.75 has also been detected which we’re following.”
Dr. Tedros says the world is facing a number of challenges in this infection wave including an overall lack of testing leaving the true pandemic situation in the dark. This is on top of waning immunity and the mounting numbers of people suffering from long-COVID that grows with each infection wave.
To make matters worse, Dr. Tedros adds that As well, like the vaccination inequity before it, promising COVID anti oral pills are not reaching low and middle income countries “depriving whole populations that need them.” He says Pfizer is dragging its heels on making its COVID treatment pill, paxlovid, available to the 43 low to middle income countries that have expressed an interest in using it.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada only updates its COVID statistics once a week every Friday.
🦠Monkeypox🦠
🇩🇰
The number of confirmed monkeypox cases in Denmark has now reached 26 and the Danish National Health Board anticipates that number is going to continue to rise. It is issuing a travel warning as people head out for summer holidays especially for gay and bisexual men where infections are predominantly focused.
Ward Doctor Gideon Ertner:
“The infection is especially seen among men who have sex with men, and therefore this group in particular must be especially careful if you are with new partners. If you suspect that you are infected with monkey pox, you must avoid close contact with others and contact a doctor per. phone as soon as possible.”
In Denmark, monkeypox vaccination as a preventive measure is not recommended. However, the vaccine can be offered to close contacts after an assessment by a doctor.
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The WHO says it remains very concerned about the explosion of monkeypox cases around the world.
Director General Dr. Tedros:
“I continue to be concerned by the scale and spread of the virus. Across the world, there has now been more than 6,000 cases recorded in 58 countries. Testing remains a challenge and it’s highly probable that there are a significant number of cases not being picked up. Europe is the current epicentre of the outbreak, recording more than 80% of monkeypox cases globally.”
He says in Africa, monkeypox cases are showing up in countries that have never seen the virus before. While countries that have a history of the virus are now seeing record high infection numbers.
“My teams are following the data, I plan to reconvene the Emergency Committee so they're updated on the current epidemiology and evolution of the monkeypox outbreak, and implementation of counter measures. I'll bring them together in the week of July 18, or sooner if needed.”
🇺🇦 🇷🇺 War
🇸🇪 🇫🇮/ NATO
Finland and Sweden have taken a big step towards joining NATO after they signed the accession protocol earlier this week. This grants both nations observer status at alliance meetings. The next step will be the ratification process by all 30 member countries. Each must ratify the membership of Sweden and Finland. Even one country failing to do so will prevent them from joining NATO.
Canada, Iceland, Norway, Denmark, the UK, and Estonia were the first out of the gate with lightning fast ratification votes in their respective parliaments. This has someone at the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs taking on a new job involving keeping a green marker close at hand.
Keep an eye on the countries dragging their feet chiefly among them will be Turkey who continues to play games and threaten to block Sweden and Finland’s NATO memberships. Turkish officials began blustering again less than 48 hours after reaching an agreement with Sweden and Finland addressing its security concerns.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
The Finnish Parliament has voted to approve legislation that will significantly boost border security with Russia. The two countries share a 1,300km border. The new law was passed with a supermajority in the Finnish parliament meaning it can be fast-tracked. Due to fears of Russian retaliation over Finland joining NATO the border will see new fencing built, other barriers put in place, and road, and security improvements throughout.
🇱🇻/ 🇷🇺
Compulsory military service has returned in Latvia. Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising tensions between the Russia bear and the Baltic states Latvia has restored mandatory military service for the first time since doing away with it shortly after joining NATO in 2004.
Defence Minister Artis Pabriks:
“The current military system of Latvia has reached its limit. Meanwhile, we have no reason to think that Russia will change its behaviour.”
The new military service requirement will come into force next year.
Currently, Latvia has just 7,500 soldiers and national guard members as well as over 1,500 NATO troops.
🇳🇴/ 🇷🇺
Another possible escalation point between Russia and the west is emerging in the arctic with Norway. Russian lawmakers have asked the lower parliament to see if the treaty setting the maritime border with Norway could be scrapped. The treaty was originally signed in 2010 to settle disputes in the arctic between the two countries. One of the flash points would be Svalbard, which is part of Norway but populated mostly by Russians. Russia also has natural resources rights in the island chain.
Russia is accusing Norway of blocking access to Svalbard, something Norway denies. It says it is simply enforcing international sanctions in response to Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and that Russia has other ways it can get supplies to Svalbard.