The Evening Report - Jan 4

Winter arrives in the Nordics. WHO “worried” about COVID.

Jan 04, 2024

⚡️Energy & Environment🍃

🇩🇰

2023 was a year of obliterating weather records in Denmark. The Danish Meteorological Institute has been tracking weather in Denmark since 1874 and last year it says the country absolutely shattered weather records from heat to rainfall and everything in between. Overall, Denmark recorded its ninth warmest year on record in 2023.

While Northern Denmark saw snow the country’s south broke a 138-year-old rainfall record. As of Wednesday evening 51.1 millimeters of rainfall was measured in Bjørup on the island of Falster. That beats the old single-day rainfall record of 50 millimeters set in 1886 on the island of Fyn.

While snow and freezing temperatures grip most of Denmark the islands of Lolland and Falster are dealing with severe flooding.

🇫🇮

Finland is also breaking weather records just days into the new year. At Ylivieska airport in central Finland, it dropped to -37.8 degrees in the early morning hours of Tuesday this week. That breaks the previous cold record of -36.3 degrees. Cold weather records were also broken in North Karelia and Salla, Lapland.

The extreme cold in Finland could have an impact on the range of electric vehicles.

Automobile and Touring Club of Finland Training Manager Teppo Vesalainen warns that freezing temperatures can impact an EV’s operating range and its charging. He spoke to Yle:

“When you go on a trip with an electric car in the winter months in Finland you have to be prepared that only half of the WLTP operating distance indicated for the car can be reached with a full battery. On the coldest days of winter, you may not even get that far.”

Experts recommend keeping an EV plugged in during freezing temperatures and preheating the battery before using the car.

🇫🇮 🇸🇪 🇳🇴 🇩🇰

The freezing temperatures and a massive snowstorm rolling across the Nordics resulted in a record number of calls for help to SOS International emergency centers. The agency says it received about 18,000 phone calls on Wednesday from across the four Nordic nations, the single highest number of emergency calls in a single day in the company’s 63 years in operation. The highest number of calls came from Denmark (59%).

🇪🇺

With Old Man Winter putting Northern Europe into a deep freeze and with three or four months of potentially cold weather still ahead the European Union’s natural gas reserves remain in good shape. Gas reservoirs are sitting at 86.1% to begin 2024.

🇪🇺 🇩🇪 🇫🇷

While countries like Germany and France grapple with flooding due to torrential rains Northern Europe is in an absolute deep freeze. Temperatures in places like Northern Sweden and Lapland in Finland plunged to more than minus 40 degrees. Just days into the new year the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute says it has already recorded the coldest January night in the last 25 years.

Meanwhile, both Germany and France have activated the EU Civil Protection Mechanism to unlock emergency support as both countries deal with major flooding. The German states of Lower Saxony and Thuringia along with the French region of Pas-de-Calais region are being particularly hard hit. Emergency response staff and an array of equipment including pumps and flood containment barriers have been deployed to the flood zones. Austria, Czechia, France, Hungary, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Sweden are among the countries offering help.

🇩🇰

The electric vehicle revolution continues in Denmark. According to De Danske Bil Importører more than half of all new cars sold in Denmark last month were EVs. The country also crossed an EV milestone in 2023 with more than 200,000 electric vehicles on the road, numbers that more than doubled year over year. 36% of all newly registered vehicles last year were EVs.

CEO Mads Rørvig:

"Electric car sales have really reached new heights this year and account for a significant proportion of new registrations. This results in new records in the car stock and we are moving towards the political goals for more green vehicles in Denmark. We are happy about the increased base deduction for electric cars' registration tax in the coming years and look forward to the further work towards greener transport from the government.”

Since banning certain types of diesel vehicles in city centers across Denmark’s largest urban centers thousands of drivers have been fined. Enforcement comes from a camera system that tracks and fines diesel vehicles without certain particulate filters. The fine is 1,500 Danish kroner (almost $300 Cdn). Since the ban came into force on October 1, there have been 7,494 fines handed out. The lion’s share of those were issued in Metro Copenhagen.

A new initiative in Denmark is putting the emphasis on the three Rs, reduce, reuse, and recycle when it comes to electronics that people throw away. Loop Electronic in Roskilde is building a specialized recycling facility in Roskilde that should come online later this year. It will take discarded electronics like washing machines, laptops, and cell phones, and repair them to be resold.

Managing Director Morten Harboe-Jepsen spoke to DR:

“Recycling is somewhat further up the waste pyramid. This means that we don't have to produce things again, extract metals from mines and use a lot of energy to produce new products.”

He says while the specialized recycling facility isn’t ready yet, the company is already hard at work.

“We are actually already sifting through and sorting things out. This means that we are already bringing a number of products back to the market that you can buy online.”

Usually discarded electronics in Denmark are crushed and then recycled into new products.

By repairing and reusing them the company’s goal is to reduce the huge consumption of resources needed to make brand new products thus limiting impacts on the environment.

According to scientists at Denmark’s Aarhus University, the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines resulted in a huge amount of greenhouse gas emissions. The university calculated that the explosions blowing apart the pipelines released enough CO2 emissions to roughly equal 18% of Denmark’s entire 2022 climate footprint.

🇧🇪

The city of Ghent in Belgium is working to rethink how traffic works in the city and its new approach seems to be successful. The city is phasing out access to fossil fuel vehicles while taking advantage of two ring roads to get vehicle traffic where they need to go without having to cut through the historic city center. It has also expanded the pedestrian zone in the historic center. It reports that rush hour traffic is down 12%, the number of cyclists is up 25%, and public transit use has increased by 28%. On top of all of that air quality in the city center has improved by 18% year over year.

There are some other unique initiatives in Ghent including an effort to use an electric barge to deliver cargo into the center using the city’s waterways. I was lucky enough to be invited on a trial run. You can see the video below.

🇬🇧 🇩🇰

A subsea power cable between the United Kingdom and Denmark called the Viking Line came online this week. The €2 billion 75- kilometer-long project has taken years to build. While the power line will make the two countries more energy interdependent it also has challenges. The 1.4 gigawatt line can only support around half its capacity because Danish and German electricity infrastructure hasn’t yet had the necessary upgrades. It will also add another dynamic to the woes already facing the Danish wind energy industry with major industry players canceling projects and taking huge losses.

🇸🇪

Sweden continues to struggle with high food prices driven upward by inflation. A new study by HUI Research has found that rising food costs have changed how people shop. It says people in Sweden are buying less meat and more vegetables while also switching from well-known brands to no-name varieties or the store’s own generic brand.

There was a run on Swedish gas stations this week as fuel prices dropped. The rush caused some stations to run out of diesel. Gas prices fell by over four Swedish kroner per liter (about 54 cents Cdn) to start the new year. The price drop was due to a reduction in fuel taxes and a cut to the greenhouse gas reduction mandate.

🇫🇮

Electricity prices in Finland returned to normal levels in 2023 according to industry the association Finnish Energy. It calculates that electricity prices last year were 64% lower than they were in 2022 even accounting for inflation.

However, 2024 is not off to a good start with electricity prices forecast to reach a record high today. Nordic power exchange NordPool is forecasting electricity prices to surge up €2.35 per kilowatt hour by Friday evening. The surge is partly to do with freezing temperatures driving up heating demand. Finnish energy agencies and the government are urging people to conserve as much electricity as possible.

🇪🇸

Spain plans to phase out its nuclear power plants by 2035 as it moves to more renewable energy sources. The country has a total of seven nuclear power plants, which will begin to be shut down in 2027. Deconstruction and clean-up efforts are estimated to cost €20.2 billion. Nuclear power supplies about 20% of Spain’s energy needs.

🦠COVID🦠

WHO

“I’m worried.”

That is what the World Health Organization’s COVID Technical Lead is saying as the pandemic enters its 5th year. Maria Van Kerkhove says new coronavirus variants, in particular JN.1, are driving infection numbers and COVID deaths around the world.

“I’m worried that too many think COVID is not something to worry about, that they need a new variant with a Greek letter to take this virus seriously. When we need to assign a Greek letter, we will not hesitate. I’m worried we so badly want to move on that governments have moved on, and will forget the overflowing hospitals, the tents in parking lots for the sick, refrigerated trucks serving as morgues, burial grounds, funeral pyres, exhausted health workers. We can’t forget those who died alone and the people dying now, thousands each week. The hundreds of thousands in hospital right now fighting for their lives. Those suffering from long-COVID struggling each and every day.”

Kerkhove says this stage of the pandemic is marked by complacency, something she will never accept.

“I will never accept that there is an acceptable level of death. We are talking about people, parents, children, people who laugh, love, and dream It’s still a global health threat and it’s still a pandemic causing far too many reinfections, hospitalizations, deaths, and long-COVID when tools exist to prevent them. Cases and hospitalizations for COVID have been on the rise for months. Hospitals in many countries are burdened and overwhelmed from COVID and other pathogens, and deaths are on the rise.”

She is once again urging governments to not be complacent and instead strengthen healthcare systems, and protect communities, and healthcare workers while providing testing, treatment, and vaccines “to all people in all countries.”

“Ensure we have comprehensive surveillance and sequencing systems that allow robust risk assessment to inform and empower people with good information. To protect and advance science. To support scientists and innovation and accept that as we learn, we change, we adjust, and we course correct.”

She says the COVID pandemic did not have to be this bad “and this wasn’t even the worst pandemic we need to prepare for.”

The JN.1 variant has been designated a ‘variant of interest’ joining a handful of other strains considered by the World Health Organization to be the most concerning. The others are XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, EG.5, and JN.1’s parent strain, BA.2.86. The WHO says the growth rate for JN.1 has it on a path to take over for the currently globally dominant EG.5 variant.

🇩🇰

The winter COVID wave appears to have peaked in Denmark. That is according to the Statens Serum Institute who says whooping cough cases also appear to be on a downward trend. However, the agency notes that influenza infections are heading in the opposite direction.

Senior Physician Bolette Søborg:

"There have been a lot of respiratory viruses in circulation, especially COVID, but now the overall monitoring indicates that the COVID infection wave has peaked. If the development continues, we expect that it will be felt in the population within the next few weeks. But you have to remember that respiratory infection activity is still at a high level and that the flu is increasing, and it is therefore important to continue to remember infection prevention advice about staying at home when you have symptoms and maintaining good hygiene practices.”

That assessment seems to bear true in the latest COVID wastewater surveillance data, which shows declining coronavirus activity (blue line).

The SSI says for a second straight week there has been a decrease in the number of COVID hospitalizations (green line above). Although the agency adds that influenza-related hospitalizations are increasing.

Weekly hospital admissions by virus type/SSI

The institute cautions to take these numbers with a grain of salt as already low testing numbers were further reduced over the holiday season.

Excess mortality is at an all-time ”elevated level” with the agency adding that it “is not unexpected for the time of year.” Infection deaths among vulnerable seniors over 70 is the main reason for increasing excess mortality rates, which are the measurement of deaths against a ten-year average.

“The overall level of infection is expected to fall in the coming time and be reflected in hospitalizations, however, the incidence of influenza and derived hospitalizations are expected to continue to increase.”

Roughly 77% of seniors over 65 have had a COVID booster and a flu shot. Among vulnerable seniors in care homes, vaccination uptake is about 86%.

The SSI says that Denmark has seen up to five different respiratory infection waves so far this winter including coronavirus, influenza, RS virus, and a whooping cough epidemic.

🇫🇮

The influenza epidemic is underway in Finland. The Finnish Institute for Health says flu activity has increased across the country and across all age groups. Influenza-related hospitalizations have also begun to rise.

Leading Expert Niina Ikonen:

"In addition to influenza, there are also other respiratory viruses in circulation. The RS virus epidemic is starting and the coronavirus is also still on the move, even though the peak of the autumn wave has already passed.”

The health agency is urging people in high-risk groups to get a flu shot as soon as possible. Finland offers influenza vaccinations to vulnerable seniors, children between the ages of two to six, and other high-risk populations.

Chief Physician Hanna Nohynek:

"For those in risk groups, it is recommended to take the corona vaccine booster at the same time, if the vaccine was missed in the fall. If you have been sick with COVID during last autumn, you do not need to take a booster dose. Having the disease gives at least as good protection as a vaccine dose.”

The institute says the national vaccination campaign has administered over one million vaccine doses. It has also expanded wastewater surveillance to include influenza and RS virus activity.

🇺🇸

Mask mandates have been reinstated at all public hospitals in New York City as the number of respiratory infections explodes. The city’s health commissioner reinstated the mandate, which applies to all areas of a hospital where patients are being treated. Similar measures were also ordered last week at some hospitals in Los Angeles and Massachusetts.

🇨🇦

The Public Health Agency of Canada is reporting a stable COVID situation in the week ending December 19. It says there has been a gradual decline in weekly COVID deaths since mid-October. That said, another 131 lives were lost to the virus across Canada according to the latest weekly update.As is the case in other countries the death toll is largely among vulnerable seniors over 70.

On the variant front, PHAC says that the BA.2.86 and its sub-variants including JN.1 are the only strains “demonstrating consistent growth” across the country.

COVID hospitalizations were stable across Canada with the total number of beds in use by infected patients edging slightly downward to 4,625, two fewer than the week before.

Infection-related general admissions were unchanged week to week with 4,470 beds in use. There were two fewer intensive care patients making 155 in total. The number of severely infected people requiring a ventilator also remained static at 74.

🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War

NATO 🇪🇺

NATO is putting its muscle behind an effort to shore up stocks of air defense missiles for European member states. The military alliance’s support and procurement agency will help allies like Germany, Romania, Spain, and the Netherlands procure up to 1,000 Patriot missiles to replenish stockpiles drained by donations to Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg:

“This investment shows the strength of transatlantic defense cooperation and NATO’s commitment to keeping our people safe. Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians, cities and towns show how important modern air defenses are. Scaling-up ammunition production is key for Ukraine’s security and for ours.”

A $5.5 billion contract has been awarded to a U.S. and German joint venture called COMLOG to deliver the missiles. A production facility for Patriot missiles will be set up in Germany as part of that effort.

NATO/ 🇷🇺

2023 was a busy year for NATO Air Command. The military alliance says it had to scramble fighters to intercept Russian aircraft “well over 300 times” last year. Most of those interceptions occurred over the Baltic Sea.

NATO Spokesperson Dylan White says the vast majority of those aerial encounters were “safe and professional” with actual breaches of NATO airspace being “rare and generally of short duration.”

“Russia’s war against Ukraine has created the most dangerous security situation in Europe in decades. NATO fighter jets are on duty around the clock, ready to scramble in case of suspicious or unannounced flights near the airspace of our Allies. Air policing is an important way in which NATO provides security for our Allies.”

Russian aircraft have a long history of probing NATO’s reaction and response by doing things like flying with their transponders turned off and refusing all communication with air traffic controllers.

🇳🇴 🇩🇰 🇺🇦

Norway is sending two F-16s and ten flight instructors to Denmark to help train Ukrainian pilots on the more modern fighter jets. The United States, Denmark, and the Netherlands are leading the F-16 coalition to upgrade Ukraine’s Air Force from soviet era aircraft. Norway has joined the coalition and on top of the contribution to the training program, it will also donate an unspecified number of F-16s to Ukraine.

Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram:

“The Norwegian Air Force has already sent instructors that will take part in the training, which will take place in Skrydstrup (A Danish Air Force base). This program is multinational and will be led by Denmark. The span of this deployment to Denmark will be decided through dialog with the other partners of this program. Ukraine has for a considerable period requested support for the establishment of a modern air force. This is necessary for the country to ensure its own security. Such an independent Ukrainian capability will also be crucial for broader European stability and security.”

🇳🇴 🇺🇦

The Norwegian government has taken its support for Ukraine to the next level. Until now Norway, and other Western governments, had funneled weapons donations through government channels into Ukrainian hands. But that has changed. As of January 1st, Norway is now removing the middleman and allowing the Norwegian defense industry to sell weapons directly to Ukraine.

Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide:

“In the extraordinary security situation resulting from Russia's war of aggression, it is crucial that we continue to support Ukraine. Support for Ukraine is important for Norwegian and European security. We must plan for the possibility that the illegal war of aggression may be prolonged. The Government has therefore decided to permit direct sales of weapons and defense-related products from the Norwegian defense industry to Ukraine.”

Arms sales to Ukraine must meet “requirements for verified needs and end-user control.” Norwegian arms companies will also have to get an export license from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which will be granted on a case-by-case basis. The ministry says the following criteria must be met for arms deals with Ukrainian forces.

Direct sales of weapons and defense-related products can only be made to Ukrainian authorities.
Applications must include documentation and government assurances regarding end-use and end-user and must include a re-export (subsequent transfer) clause.
Transportation and delivery of weapons and defense-related products must take place through secure and established logistics routes.
Applications are assessed in accordance with Norwegian export control regulations and Norway's obligations under international law, including the UN Arms Trade Treaty.

Defense Bjørn Arild Gram

“This change means that we are safeguarding fundamental defense and security policy interests for Norway together with our allies. The Government employs a number of instruments to facilitate the important role of the defense industry in the current security policy situation.”

🇹🇷/ 🇸🇪

Sweden will have to keep waiting to see if it will join NATO, or not. Just before Christmas a Turkish parliamentary foreign affairs committee finally moved Sweden’s NATO application to the parliament for the long-stalled ratification vote. But then the Turkish parliament adjourned for the holidays and it won’t reconvene until at least January 16.

Sweden needs unanimous support from all 31 NATO member nations in order to join the military alliance. Turkey and Hungary remain the only two countries that have yet to ratify Sweden’s ascension protocols.

Yasar Yakis is a former Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister and a founding member of the ruling AK party. He wrote an interesting op/ed in the Arab News this week concerning the continued “arm twisting” between Turkey and Sweden.

“Although the subject matter is Sweden’s NATO membership, concrete negotiations are taking place between the US Congress and the Turkish parliament. This subject was upgraded to the level of President Joe Biden and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan when the former reportedly told the latter: “You pass the law in the Turkish parliament (on Sweden’s NATO membership) and I will do the same by passing the motion in Congress (on Turkiye’s request to buy F-16 fighter jets).”

There is now a top-level commitment on both sides. However, it is unclear whether Biden will be able to persuade the majority of lawmakers in both chambers of Congress. In other words, Erdogan’s commitment is secure but we do not know whether Biden will be able to keep his promise. If some members of Congress insist on maintaining their anti-Turkiye attitude, the entire scenario will fall apart and Ankara will be left out in the cold. This would be a major disappointment for Turkiye.

During last week’s meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee, the Turkish deputy foreign minister informed the committee that Sweden had lifted its embargo on defense equipment exports to Turkiye that was imposed in 2019. This shows that tangible progress has been made in Turkish-Swedish relations, but the distance still to be covered remains significant.”

🇸🇪

File this under ‘concerning’. The Swedish Transport Agency has confirmed it received reports over the holiday season from a number of civilian aircraft that GPS signals were being disrupted. The disruption was reported across parts of Denmark, Poland, Finland, Germany, the Baltic states, and southern Sweden. Swedish national broadcaster SVT reports that the Swedish military has refused to comment on the situation.

Sweden is struggling with an ammunition crunch. Defense Minister Pål Jonson says they need to replenish domestic stockpiles of artillery ammunition and at the same time maintain donations to Ukraine. He calls it a difficult situation. Sweden has donated Archer artillery platforms to Ukraine.

“We have nice Archer artillery, but they are not relevant if there is no ammunition for them to shoot with.”

According to Swedish national broadcaster SVT, there is a six-year delivery wait for ammunition orders via Swedish ammunition producers. But to break the logjam will take money, lots and lots of money. Swedish ammunition manufacturer Nammo tells SVT it cannot increase production without major investment. The defense sector is estimating that a month’s supply of shells at the pace Ukraine is firing its artillery would cost over 30 billion Swedish kroner (a shade under $4 billion Cdn). To give some context that would equal about a quarter of Sweden’s defense budget in 2024 (119 billion kroner) in a single month.

🇫🇮

Finland’s security was the key plank in Finnish President Sauli Niinistö's traditional New Year’s address. It was also his last speech as President. Niinistö credited Finland joining NATO and a new defense agreement with the United States for putting Finland’s security “behind multiple locks.” But he also warned that Europe needs to “wake up” and invest in its own defense while also continuing to arm Ukraine to keep the Russian Bear at bay.

"Russia is never as strong as she looks, Russia is never as weak as she looks. This phrase, presented in many forms over time, holds a grain of truth. It is also clear that, in the transatlantic relationship, the Europeans are expected to bear much more responsibility.”

🇱🇻/ 🇷🇺

1,213 Russian citizens who are in Latvia could be deported because they have not submitted documents for residency permits before a deadline expired last November. Latvia’s Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs has been sending letters out to those who haven’t submitted the necessary paperwork “inviting them to leave the country.” According to the office, there are about 25,000 Russian citizens living in Latvia. Of those, about half have met the language and other residency tests.

🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺

The European Union is targeting Russian diamonds. The EU has expanded its sanctions to include the world’s largest diamond mining company PJSC Alrosa and its chief executive. The company is owned by the Russian state and accounts for over 90% of Russia’s diamond production. Russia is the world's largest producer of uncut diamonds.

🇵🇱/ 🇷🇺

Poland’s government may have changed but its hard line against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains firmly in place. Poland's Minister of Foreign Affairs Radoslaw Sikorski took to social media this week to urge new and harsher sanctions be levied against Russia and that Western countries increase donations of long-range missiles to Ukraine.

“We should respond to the latest attack on Ukraine in a language that Putin can understand: Tighten the sanctions so that he cannot make new weapons with smuggled components, and give Kyiv long-range missiles so that they can hit launch sites and command centers.”

Russia, likely furious over the loss of another major naval vessel in its Black Sea fleet to Ukrainian missiles, has been relentlessly bombarding Ukraine over the last few days.

🇬🇧 🇺🇦

The United Kingdom is sending Ukraine hundreds of air defense missiles to restock ammunition for British-supplied air defense systems.

Defense Secretary Grant Shapps:

“Putin is testing Ukraine’s defenses and the West’s resolve - now is the time for the world to come together and redouble our efforts to get Ukraine what they need to win.”

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