The Evening Report - Jan 26
Denmark to ditch virtually all COVID restrictions…again.
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Denmark will lift virtually all COVID restrictions by February 1. In a press conference on Wednesday, Statsminister Mette Frederiksen and health officials announced the designation that the coronavirus is a ‘socially critical disease’ will end on January 31. The designation provided the legal foundation for many of the restrictions the government enacted. So when the designation disappears so do the restrictions.
Frederiksen said she sees the pandemic in Denmark unfolding in three phases. The one we are in now where things are challenging and will get more difficult as restrictions vanish. There will also be a continued focus on vaccination efforts. The next phase will cover the spring, summer, and early autumn. The weather will be on our side; more people will be outside; the coronavirus will be at a significant disadvantage. The third phase comes in late fall and as winter arrives.
“The season is again against us and it is absolutely crucial that we are well prepared. It is also possible that we will have to be vaccinated again with a fourth dose.”
But Frederiksen admits where we are now with record high infection rates and soon a lifting of all restrictions “will be a hassle.” She says people must take care of each other and do everything in their power to reduce infection spread.
Strict testing requirements to enter Denmark will also come to an end on January 31. The country will revert back to requirements that existed before things were tightened up in a futile effort to keep the Omicron variant out. Although even those are provisional until February 28. What this will look like exactly is up in the air with more information expected on Friday.
A few infection prevention measures will remain in place like mask and coronapas mandates for entering and being inside hospitals and senior care homes. It was also noted that private companies, cultural institutions, and other businesses have the prerogative to impose a coronapas requirement on their own.
The coronapas will also remain in place for all international travel outside Denmark, including across the EU.
The remaining entry restrictions focus on travelers who are neither vaccinated nor previously infected. At the same time, preparedness is maintained so that previous restrictions can be quickly reintroduced if new, worrying virus variants arise abroad.
While dropping ICU numbers and the generally milder effects of the Omicron variant are part of the reason Denmark is looking to return to near-normal, herd immunity is the other.
Danish National Board of Health Director Søren Brostrøm”
“We have an enormously high immunity in Denmark. There are two significant reasons why the authorities can be confident in saying to lift the restrictions. One is the nature of the Omicron variant. It is almost completely dominant and it is less pathogenic. The second is that we have high immunity in the population, both from vaccines and infection.”
Brostrøm estimates 80% of the population “from cradle to grave” has immunity either due to vaccination or having recovered from infection. He says at least 1.5 million people and “maybe twice as many” have had an Omicron variant infection since the strain arrived late last year.
The press conference also addressed the concerning new Omicron sub-variant that is now dominant in Denmark, BA.2. Staten Serum Institut Professional Director Tyra Grove Krause says the variant will have an impact.
“This means that the peak may be a little higher, and it may also reach a little further into February.”
She also thinks it will contribute to COVID’s “dark number” or escape infections, cases not caught in testing.
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After the press conference, Statsminister Mette Frederiksen took to her social media channels to call the announcement of the lifting of almost all COVID restrictions a “milestone.”
“Recent weeks have seen the highest infection rates of the entire pandemic. Therefore, it may seem paradoxical. But we can see that the patient curve in intensive care units is broken. This is due, firstly, to the fact that so many Danes have been vaccinated. And that the authorities assess that Omicron typically gives a milder infection. That is why Denmark is in a really good place overall.”
But she also cautioned that the this does not mean the pandemic is over.
“At the same time, the coronavirus has proven to be unpredictable. And we must be ready to deal with new serious variants if they emerge.”
She ends the post with:
“It is with great optimism that we now look ahead. Spring is on its way. And we expect a summer filled with hugs, gatherings, festivals, concerts, and parties. All that we have missed. An open Denmark.”
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Denmark is reporting 46,747 COVID infections and 21 coronavirus deaths in the last day. There were another 3,028 reinfections, a number that continues to grow.
Worth noting that Denmark set a new record high number of infections as measured by testing date, with 53,114 positive test results from corona tests taken on Monday, January 24.
Yesterday, 445,892 total corona tests were done, of which 219,647 were PCR tests equaling a positivity percentage of a sky high 21.28%
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The latest COVID risk assessment from the Staten Serum Institut says the Omicron sub-variant BA.2 became the dominant coronavirus strain in Denmark in the second week of January. While Omicron is hyper-infectious sweeping through the population in a quarter of the time it took the Delta variant, the SSI has pegged BA.2 as even more infectious yet. The agency’s preliminary calculations indicate BA.2 is about one and a half times more contagious than its parent Omicron strain.
The SSI’s Tyra Grove Krause says the new strain is going to have an impact and will likely push already record high numbers even higher.
“Overall, we must say that the epidemic is still growing and that there is still a risk that infection rates will increase further in the coming weeks. Therefore, there is also a risk that the number of admissions will increase.”
The emergency of the BA.2 variant has also thrown a monkey-wrench into projections of when the Omicron-driven infection wave might peak.
The agency notes that despite record high infection numbers, a soaring positivity percentage, and a rising COVID incidence rate, the number of intensive care admissions has steadily fallen. And one-third of the ICU admissions were not admitted because of COVID but rather tested positive after the fact.
“At the same time as infection rates are rising, we are seeing a relatively lower growth in the number of coronavirus-related admissions and a declining number of admissions to intensive care units. In addition, an increasing proportion are admitted for reasons other than COVID.”
The SSI says the decoupling of intensive care numbers from skyrocketing infection numbers is due to vaccination uptake and an Omicron variant that causes less severe illness.
“It is the Omicron variant that is driving the epidemic right now. We estimate that more than 99% of all COVID cases in week 3 are due to Omicron, and data shows that it spreads faster, but gives a lower risk of serious disease outbreaks compared to delta. At the same time, we can see a marked difference in the risk of being admitted between being vaccinated and unvaccinated. The vaccinated are better protected against being hospitalized even if they are infected by the omicron variant.”
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COVID hospitalizations (938) continue to creep closer to record highs (+20) while the number of severely infected people in an ICU (40) heads in the other direction (-4) and of those the number on a ventilator (25) declined (-3) admissions to psychiatric wards (226) is up (+4).
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On the vaccination front, numbers continue to ebb with 15,879 total inoculations yesterday. Booster doses continued to drive the vaccination effort with 12,851 on Tuesday pushing booster dose uptake across another milestone with 60% of the population now having a 3rd dose.
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The Danish National Board of Health is admitting that the effort to vaccinate children between the ages of 5 and 11 years old has had underwhelming results. Director Søren Brostrøm says the number of kids who got vaccinated has not lived up to the authority’s expectations.
But nevertheless:
“It made a modest but important contribution to us standing where we are today. It made a really good contribution to the overall immunity.”
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Sweden has added 50,495 infections and another 75 virus deaths since yesterday’s update.
But there is a major twist. We now know Sweden has a new record high of 89,888 cases set for January 25. This is because the Swedish Public Health Agency has changed how it reports reinfections and has begun retroactively adjusting its daily numbers to reflect the change. The difference is staggering.
Here is the daily infections chart from the Folkhälsomyndigheten as reported in yesterday’s update. Note the record high yesterday of just under 45,000 cases set last week
Now here is the same chart reported out today by the Swedish Health Agency.
To date, 86.6% of the population 12 years old and older have one vaccine dose, 83.5% have two, and of those 18 years old and older 44.3% have a booster dose.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency has circled February 9 on its calendar as the day COVID recommendations across the country can begin to be phased out. The agency says it expects the massive Omicron infection wave engulfing the country to peak “in one of the next few weeks.”
Like other countries, Sweden is seeing huge numbers of daily COVID infections and increasing pressure on hospitals, but at the same time intensive care admissions have not increased drastically. The national healthcare agency says this is due to vaccination uptake and the Omicron variant generally causing less severe illness.
CEO Karin Tegmark Wisell says this has fueled the hope that COVID recommendations can soon be eased.
“The very high spread of infection has led to challenges with staffing in healthcare, senior care, and other socially important functions. But it has not caused a corresponding increase in serious illness and death since the new year. Measures against the infection spread must be proportionate and not more restrictive than necessary. If vaccination coverage continues to increase at the same time as the impact on socially important functions and the development of the morbidity of the virus does not change significantly, I believe that a number of the measures can be phased out on February 9.“
The agency says concrete plans on phasing out COVID recommendations will be determined early next week and then announced publicly.
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Finland has registered 8,039 infections and 32 more corona deaths since yesterday’s update.
COVID hospitalizations (675) are down (-7).
So far, 76.2% of the total population has one vaccine dose, 73.5% have two, and 41.9% have a booster dose.
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The Finnish Institute for Health is now encouraging everyone 18 years old and older to get a COVID vaccine booster shot. The agency says for those between 18 and 60 years old, a 3rd dose can be administered 4 to 6 months after a 2nd dose.
Chief Physician Hanna Nohynek
“The third dose of the vaccine provides very good protection against a serious disease resulting in hospitalization caused by the Omicron variant. The incidence of hospital treatment was lower in those who have been vaccinated three times compared to those who have received two doses of the vaccine.”
The institute is especially urging anyone in a high-risk group or among vulnerable populations to get boosted as soon as possible.
At the moment, Finland only recommends a booster shot for people who are immunocompromised in the 12 to 17 year old age group.
More than 80% of those aged 60 and over have now received a 3rd dose of the vaccine. But the institute says about 290,000 people over the age of 60 who have received two doses are still missing a third dose of the vaccine. About 25% of all 18- to 59-year-olds have received a booster dose.
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Norway has added a record high 25,814 infections and another 23 pandemic deaths in the last 24 hours.
COVID hospitalizations (245) are down (-8) while the number of severely infected people in an ICU (51) also dipped (-9) and of those the number on a ventilator (36) is unchanged.
To date, 79.9% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one dose, 73.8% have two, and 47.6% have a booster. Worth noting that both 1st and 2nd doses have remained virtually stagnant thus week.
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The Norwegian Institute of Public Health has issued a heads-up on the changes to the EU COVID Certificate for anyone traveling in Europe from February 1 and on. As of February 1, the EU digital vaccine passport will no longer be valid for anyone who has gone more than 270 days since a 2nd dose without having a booster shot. For the certificate to remain valid, a third dose must be administered within that timeframe.
The only other option is to have had COVID and have recovered since having a 2nd dose. In that case, a previous infection buys a person 180 days of immunity and a valid EU COVID certificate during that period.
The institute advises travelers to always check ahead with the country they are going to in the event of different rules, for example, if children need to show proof of vaccination or infection recovery. One way to check on the rules in each European country is by using the website, or app, Re-open EU.
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An alarming number of children in Norway have not had a flu shot including most children who are at increased risk due to a variety of health conditions. The Norwegian Public Institute of Health is sounding the alarm as it looks at flu vaccination rates while noting countries like France are starting to see influenza numbers begin to take off.
The agency says 7% of Norwegian children suffer from a variety of ailments and health conditions that make them especially vulnerable, not just to COVID, but also to influenza. Of that group, it says a paltry 8% have had a flu shot.
Senior Adviser Kjersti Rydland:
“This means that only a fraction of the children who need extra protection have been vaccinated against influenza. This is much lower in numbers than in adults with the same type of diseases or conditions.”
The NIPH has had a goal of getting 75% of high-risk adults and children a flu shot and so far they have yet to achieve it.
“If you look at the children who have more than one risk condition, it is true that a larger proportion hve been vaccinated, 23%. In practice, however, this means that three out of four children with a particularly increased risk of hospitalization due to influenza have not been protected by vaccination.”
The institute is sounding the alarm because several European countries are now seeing rising influenza numbers. It points in particular to a surge in children in intensive care in France due to the seasonal flu.
“This means that the flu can still come to Norway this winter. We should now take the opportunity to vaccinate more people before there is a possible peak later this winter. This applies especially to children who have an increased risk.”
Health authorities across Europe have been concerned for months about the possibility of a historic influenza wave. Epidemiologists have warned that due to COVID restrictions wiping out the last two flu seasons people’s natural immunity will be weakened, especially for young children whose immune system hasn’t seen the usual winter bug yet. They say this could provide the opening for a massive influenza wave that would exacerbate the existing COVID crunch and push already straining hospitals over the edge.
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Pregnant women were ignored in clinical trials of COVID vaccines, which led to conflicting messaging, and a lack of information, resulting in many expecting mothers being hesitant to get vaccinated and ending up in intensive care. That is the conclusion of an international study published in ‘The Lancet.’
The research team was led by Professor Marian Knight of the National Perinatal Epidemiology Unit at the University of Oxford and studied the impacts of the pandemic on pregnant women across Europe.
The study found the number of pregnant women becoming infected and ending up in an ICU increased when the Delta variant became dominant. The study also found most of the expecting mothers in intensive care were unvaccinated.
Norwegian Institute of Public Health Medical Birth Register Chief Physician Hilde Engjom was a first author of the study:
“The proportion of vaccinated pregnant women varied between countries, but common to all countries was that serious illness was linked to a lack of vaccination.”
The study concluded vaccines are safe and effective in protecting pregnant women and their unborn child from serious illness. It says healthcare authorities across Europe must prioritize COVID vaccination among expecting mothers.
The study emphasized a critical mistake from the outset that pregnant women were excluded from vaccine research and reporting. This despite clear recommendations to the contrary.
“There seems to be little attention among regulatory authorities and pharmaceutical companies to prioritize research for use in pregnant women in the early development of vaccines and other drugs. There is still considerable vaccination delay among pregnant women in several countries. A change in attitude to guidelines for pharmaceutical development and clinical studies can probably contribute to faster research results and clearer guidance, and thus to a higher vaccination rate and protection for pregnant women.”
NIPH Chief Physician Margrethe Greve-Isdahl says the lack of credible information on vaccination and pregnancy has led to an area ripe for misinformation.
“Pregnant women are concerned with doing the best for themselves and the baby in the womb, and it is understandable that it is difficult to navigate all the information that comes. Conflicting messages and misleading information on social media, mainly related to the safety of the vaccines, make it difficult for pregnant women to know what to do.”
Norway was one of the countries studied and the country’s national health institute estimates vaccination among pregnant women is about 80%.
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Germany is reporting a record high 164,000 infections and 166 more pandemic deaths since its last update on Tuesday.
It added another 1,215 hospitalizations, while ICU numbers (2,396) were down (-42).
To date, 75.6% of the population has one dose, 73.6% have two, and 51.3% have a booster.
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Unvaccinated people will finally have their lockdown lifted in Austria just in time to face mandatory vaccinations. The lockdown, which has been in place since December, will end January 31. As of February 1 mandatory vaccinations will be imposed. After a grace period, anyone who is not vaccinated will face stiff fines beginning mid-March.
Unvaccinated people will also remain banned from entering places like restaurants, cafes, and hotels.
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Despite rising coronavirus numbers, the Netherlands will begin easing restrictions, which are some of the toughest in Europe. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte admitted the country was “taking a risk” in beginning to open back-up.
As of Wednesday, cafes, bars, and restaurants can remain open until 10pm. A coronapas will be required to enter. Capacity will be capped at sports and cultural events. But bars and nightclubs will remain closed.
The Netherlands reported 58,616 new infections and another 12 virus deaths on Wednesday. Nearly 90% of the country’s population is vaccinated, but booster shot uptake is lagging with about 57% of the population having a 3rd dose.
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Canada added 14,165 new COVID cases while suffering the loss of another 180 lives to the coronavirus. Just a reminder the infection numbers are very underreported due to an array of testing issues across the provinces.
The national positivity percentage over the last seven days is 19.4%.
The Canadian vaccination effort has so far administered 31,784,594 1st vaccine doses (83.13% of the total population) while 29,919,028 people (78.25%) have two doses, and of those, 14,770,207 people are fully vaccinated with three doses.
Ontario saw hospitalizations (4,018) rise (+8) while ICU numbers (608) dropped (-18). The province lost another 89 lives to coronavirus. It has a positivity percentage of 15.93%.
Quebec has a positivity percentage of 10.71%. Hospitalizations (3,270) were down (-8) while ICU numbers (252) also dipped (-11). The province lost another 73 lives to the pandemic on Wednesday.
Newfoundland and Labrador suffered the most deaths of any day in the pandemic yet on Wednesday, with three. Hospitalizations (20) were unchanged while ICU numbers (7) crept up (+2). The province has a positivity percentage of 15.1%.
Nova Scotia suffered 13 more deaths while hospitalizations (91) inched down (-1) and ICU numbers (15) were unchanged. The province has a positivity percentage of 9.6%, which is a big drop from Tuesday.
In New Brunswick there are 137 people in hospital (-1) with 11 in an ICU (-3). The province also saw six more deaths.
Manitoba saw hospitalizations (720) dipped (-9) while those in intensive care (49) were unchanged. Another three people died in the province.
Saskatchewan saw hospitalizations (315) shoot upward (+24) while ICU numbers (33) remained static. The province had six more pandemic deaths. Its positivity percentage is 33%.
Alberta hospitalizations (1,418) pushed another record-high (+41) while ICU numbers (109) edged down (-2). The province saw another 23 pandemic deaths. Its positivity percentage is 37.5%
In B.C. hospitalizations (949) are down (-36) and ICU numbers (136) also dropped (-8). The province had 21 more COVID deaths. Its positivity percentage is 22.40%.