The Evening Report - Jan 24
Global COVID deaths increases. The Leopards may have been freed.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🌏🦠
“It will continue to kill.”
The World Health Organization is warning that the COVID pandemic is not over. In fact, it says since the beginning of December the number of lives lost to the virus each week has been increasing. In the last eight weeks alone. More than 170,000 lives have been lost to the virus. And it emphasizes that is just reported deaths as the actual number of fatalities is much higher.
Infectious Disease Epidemiologist, and WHO COVID Technical Lead, Maria Van Kerkhove:
WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says that the Emergency Committee on COVID will meet this week to discuss whether the current situation still constitutes a global health emergency.
“While I will not pre-empt the advice of the Emergency Committee, I remain very concerned by the situation in many countries and the rising number of deaths. While we are clearly in better shape than three years ago, when this pandemic first hit, the global collective response is once again under strain. Too few people, especially older people and health workers, are adequately vaccinated. Too many people are behind on their boosters. For too many people, antivirals remain expensive and out of reach. And too many people don’t receive the right care. Fragile health systems are struggling to cope with the burden of COVID, on top of caring for patients with other diseases including the flu and RS virus.”
Dr. Tedros adds that COVID surveillance and the sequencing of positive test results have both “declined dramatically” and that is kneecapping efforts to track pandemic developments and the evolution of new coronavirus variants. He also decried the spreading of misinformation that is clouding people’s judgment and undermining confidence in life-saving vaccines.
“My message is clear, do not underestimate this virus, it has and will continue to surprise us and it will continue to kill, unless we do more to get health tools to people that need them and to comprehensively tackle misinformation.”
🇩🇰
In Denmark, COVID hospitalizations (278) continued to tumble (-14) while the number of severely infected people in an ICU (18) dipped slightly (-1) and of those, the number on a ventilator (5) crept upward (+1).
Infection admissions to a psychiatric facility (57) inched down (-4).
While hospitalizations fall, a clear trend is emerging, not just in Denmark but in other countries as well. While we tend to focus on the heights of each COVID wave, the bottom of the trough between each wave is steadily rising. As you can see in the hospitalization graph below. This indicates that COVID activity is becoming more and more regular or perhaps normalized is a better description. Even at its lowest point in Denmark there are now regularly a stream of between 200 to 300 admissions adding to the workload of hospitals across the country.
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The Statens Serum Institute reported a very low 186 new COVID infections (underreported), including 84 reinfections, and 11 more coronavirus deaths in the last day.
With 3,358 PCR taken on Monday, that equals a positivity percentage of 5.53%. Over the last seven days the rate has been 7.2%.
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Influenza activity appears to be on the decline, which is good news. But this flu season has still claimed 83 lives.
🇩🇰 🇸🇪 🇫🇮 🇳🇴
The variant specific booster doses offered across the Nordic countries offered strong protections against severe infection resulting in hospitalization and death, according to a major new Scandinavian wide study. Health authorities in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland collaborated on the study, while it was financed by the European Medicine Agency, which is a pre-print and has yet to be peer-reviewed.
Across the Nordics, booster dose campaigns began in the fall, at first offering the new bivalent vaccine targeting the original coronavirus and the parent Omicron variant (BA.1). Shortly after, the booster dose campaign switched to the next generation bivalent vaccines targeting the BA.4 and BA.5 variants, the dominant strains at the time. The rules of who was eligible for a 4th dose varied across the Nordics. For example, in Denmark and Sweden a 4th dose was offered to everyone 50 years old and older, in Finland it was those over the age of 60, and in Norway it was 65 years old and older.
The study used comprehensive monitoring data from the four Nordic countries to conclude that a 4th dose of the BA.1 bivalent vaccine reduced the risk of infection-related hospitalization by 74% and death by 80%. The BA.4/BA.5 bivalent had 81% protection against hospitalization and reduced the risk of death by 78%.
Statens Serum Institute Professor, and study lead, Anders Hviid:
“We also looked at whether there was a difference between the vaccines aimed at BA.4/5 and the vaccines aimed at BA.1. There was. A 4th dose with the vaccine targeting BA.4/5 offered greater protection against the risk of COVID hospitalization compared to that targeting BA.1. It might not be too surprising either, since the BA.4/5 subvariants were the dominant ones in the fall of 2022. But I think we are some of the first to actually measure it [the difference in bivalent booster dose protection] because of the large amounts of data available to us , especially when we are collaborating across four countries.”
The study also notes that infection-related hospitalization and death were “very rare” after both a 1st and 2nd booster dose.
You can find the study in full HERE.
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University of Oxford Professor of Virology and Immunology Astrid Iversen says the study on bivalent booster dose efficacy points to a developing problem that needs addressing.
“The oldest, the most vulnerable, and the nursing home residents were offered a BA.1 booster five months ago. Their antiviral immunity is waning. They need the option to opt for a BA.4/5 booster dose now.”
Iversen says the study has its drawbacks on who was monitored and when.
“That is, the oldest, who got BA.1 booster before October 1, had full protection for a period with a relatively low infection pressure, and of those who received the BA.4/5 booster, after October 15, not all have been followed for a full 60 days, and they were followed while the infection pressure was quite high, which together will reduce the difference between the groups.”
🇸🇪
The Swedish Public Health Agency updates its COVID numbers once a week, every Thursday afternoon.
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COVID hospitalizations continue to drop in Sweden’s capital region. In its Tuesday weekly update, Region Stockholm reported a total of 308 pandemic patients in hospitals across the region; that is 97 fewer than there were a week ago. There is just one person being treated in intensive care.
Chief Physician Johan Bratt:
“The number of people treated for a COVID infection continues to decrease. The hospitals are back to normal operations and are once again starting to carry out planned care and procedures. The number of cases of the influenza and RS virus is also decreasing, which makes for a markedly better situation than it was a few weeks ago.”
That said, Bratt added that this is no time to be less vigilant.
“I want to urge everyone to continue to follow the recommendations, to wash your hands frequently, stay home if you are sick, and to take the vaccines that are offered. Getting vaccinated is important to avoiding serious illness.”
The region has reported another 333 new infections (wildly underreported) in the last week, of which 44 were vulnerable seniors in care.
The region has also suffered another 73 coronavirus deaths pushing its to-date pandemic death toll to 6,080 lost lives. As usual, it continues to warn that Sweden continues to struggle with a backlog in reporting COVID deaths, as it has been for well over a year.
🇩🇪
Germany recorded 16,072 new infections and 14 more pandemic deaths in its Tuesday afternoon update.
It added another 1,492 hospitalizations, while ICU numbers (670) continue to slide (-27). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country, coronavirus patients are using 3.2%.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada has reported 13,948 new infections and 222 more coronavirus deaths in the last week. That pushes the to-date pandemic death toll in Canada past 50,000 lives lost.
Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Teresa Tam says it is important that people remember the pandemic is not over. She says the coronavirus and other respiratory infections continue to circulate and a combination of being vaccinated and taking personal protections is the “best approach to reducing the risk of severe illness.”
Tam says the coronavirus positivity percentage is down from 15% to 13.4% from one week the next, while confirmed cases for influenza and RS virus have returned to “expected levels” for this time of year. Influenza activity in particular continues to decline. She stresses that for those who are eligible, they should get a flu shot.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇪🇺
Gas consumption is increasing across the European Union as winter temperatures make a return for a large chunk of the trading bloc. Gas storage levels slid from 81.71% to 78.35% from week to week as daily withdrawals more than doubled. This marks the first time this winter gas storage in Europe has fallen below the 80% threshold. To compare, a year ago, gas reserves in Europe were below 40%.
Poland (93.19%), Spain (93.3%), and Germany (86.52%) have the highest level of natural gas reserves, while Hungary (62.71%), Romania (70.72%), and Slovakia (71.64%) have the lowest.
While the EU Commission hailed gas use reductions across Europe recently, those numbers are being eroded quite rapidly. In the first two weeks of December gas consumption was down -13% and -5%, respectively. But in the third week of December gas use surged back above the five-year average. With freezing temperatures and even snow in swaths of Europe, gas consumption will only increase. Indeed, Germany has already begun reigniting coal-fired power plants to meet expected electricity demands.
Ricerche Industriali ed Energetiche Research Fellow Francesco Sassi notes the double edged energy sword in Europe as polluting fossil fuel power plants are brought back online to meet energy demands,
“The result is that Germany emits more CO2 to produce electricity than any other country in the EU, even more than those located in the East, except for Poland, which is massively reliant on coal. Are Germany and the whole European Union resisting the Russian energy offensive by forgetting about the energy transition?”
Plummeting gas prices will also make people less cautious, further adding to demand.
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The European Commission is looking to reform Europe’s electricity market to provide a better buffer for consumers and businesses from volatile price hikes. The commission is launching a public consultation to begin the process.
Essentially, the problem that reared its head early in the energy crisis was that when fossil fuel energy prices skyrocketed so did green renewable energy because it is one all in market. The EU now considers this model to have some shortcomings. It wants to unlink to the two energy markets, give consumers choice, and have energy prices reflect the “true cost” of production.
The consultation will run until February 13. Here are its four priorities.
Making electricity bills less dependent on short-term fossil fuel prices, and boosting the deployment of renewables;
Improving market functioning to ensure security of supply, and fully utilize alternatives to gas, such as storage, and demand response;
Enhancing consumer protection and empowerment;
Improving market transparency, surveillance, and integrity.
🇸🇪
In Southern Sweden, Region Skåne has basically eliminated the use of fossil-fuel produced energy while increasing energy efficiency and reducing overall energy use.
The region says it reduced energy use by 5% last year, and cut electricity use by just over 3%. It says its biggest success has been at Scania University Hospital in Malmö, where electricity use has been reduced by 10% year over year. This isn’t a new thing either, as the region has been moving to become more energy efficient for the last eight years, resulting in reducing its energy use by 25%.
The region has managed these savings by reducing temperatures in its buildings, and by cutting ‘demand control’ of both ventilation and lighting. It has also launched information campaigns and staff training on energy efficiency. This is backed up by using thermal cameras to locate and identify energy waste, having regular energy audits, and moving to more efficient LED lighting.
Energy Strategist David Nilsson:
“Our climate impact is reduced, our costs are reduced and we reduce the risk of electricity shortages and a possible disconnection of electricity in society at large. When we reduce our energy use, that is ultimately heat, electricity, and gas for others who may need it more than us. So our challenge in 2023 is to jointly reduce energy use even further.”
Region Skåne says it has pretty much completed its energy transition and is basically free of fossil fuel produced energy. To-date, it says, 99.97% of its energy use is from renewables.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇩🇪 🇵🇱 🇫🇮 🇺🇸/ 🇺🇦
It looks like more modern armour will soon flow from Europe and the United States to Ukraine. A number of media reports, backed by confirmation from Ukrainian officials, indicate that Germany has, finally, decided to donate Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and given permission to other European countries like Finland and Poland to donate their tanks as well. While details are not 100% confirmed yet, and perhaps they will be by the time you read this, it looks like an international coalition could send around 100 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. As well, Politico is reporting that the Biden administration will also send 30 to 50 Abrams tanks to Ukraine as well.
Early on Thursday, Poland confirmed it has officially sent Germany a request to send its Leopard tanks to Ukraine. The German made tanks require a re-export permit from Germany to move them from one country to another.
Ukrainian politicians, donning anything leopard print, have flooded social media welcoming the news.
🇫🇮 🇸🇪/ 🇹🇷
Finland’s Foreign Affairs Minister touched off a powder keg on Thursday morning before quickly walking back his comments. In an interview with Finnish news agency Yle, Pekka Haavisto said that Finland joining NATO on its own without Sweden was an option on the table. This flies in the face of what has been a completely unified process between the two countries, with Finland saying, until now, it would only join NATO with Sweden, or not at all.
“Of course, from the perspective of both countries' security, it is absolutely the number one option. But we have to be ready to re-evaluate the situation. Has something happened that would in the long run prevent Sweden's application from progressing? Now it is too early to take a view on that."
The reaction from Sweden was swift with Foreign Affairs Minister Tobias Billström saying he was reaching out to Finland to get some clarity on what exactly Haavisto meant.
Then the damage control on the Finnish side began.
Finland’s Acting Defense Minister Mikko Savola took to Twitter:
“It is important now to keep a cool head. We have applied for NATO membership at the same time as Sweden. It is in the interests of Finland, Sweden, and NATO that we finish together.”
Haavisto then called a press conference to walk his earlier comments back.
“Together with Sweden, we will do everything we can to return to normal tripartite cooperation with Turkey. We still consider it very important that we become members at the same time as Sweden.”
He added the goal remained as it was to join NATO in lock-step with Sweden, and he had been on the phone with his Swedish counterpart and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to confirm that.
“We are trying to progress this together. He [Stoltenberg] still emphasizes that NATO’s own priority is that Finland and Sweden would become members at the same time."
The one roadblock for Sweden to join NATO remains Turkey. Despite Finland, Sweden, and Turkey singing a tripartite deal, Turkey has continued to remain a fly in the ointment. It insists that Sweden has not abided by its end of the deal because it is not deporting people it considers terrorists. For its part Sweden is simply abiding by the ruling of its highest court, which has blocked several deportations on legal grounds.
The situation has become worse in the last few days due to anti-Turkish protests held in Sweden where an effigy of Turkish President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan was burned. Then this week, an extreme right wing Danish-Swedish activist burned a copy of the Muslim holy book, the Quran, in Stockholm. Erdogan, now fighting a national election battle, has seized on the Quran burning, in no small part due to politics, and said Sweden "should not expect support from us for NATO.”
Any Turkish vote on Sweden and Finland’s NATO memberships will not come until after the dust has settled on Turkey’s mid-May national elections. Turkey has also canceled a trilateral meeting between the three countries scheduled for next month.
🇸🇪/ 🇹🇷
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson held an unscheduled press conference ro respond to Turkey suspending talks on NATO membership. He warned Swedes that their security situation is the "most difficult since World War II."
Kristersson repeated that people in Sweden enjoy freedom of speech and that his government remains committed to it as a basic tenet of democracy. But, he warned “we are in a vulnerable position” and that people need to think about what best benefits Sweden’s security interests. It's perfectly legal to say a lot of things you don't have to say.” The Prime Minister, clearly feeling cornered, asked people to stop “provocations.” A clear message aimed at extremists like the one who publicly burned the Quran.
He finished the press conference saying everyone in Sweden should “realize the seriousness of this situation [which] threatens our entire democracy and peace" and that joining NATO is the most important issue right now for Swedish security.
🇩🇰/ 🇸🇪 🇹🇷
Danish Foreign Affairs Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen is call the burning of the Quran by a Danish-Swedish extremist “shameful.”
“It is shameful that we have a Danish-Swede who is doing things like this. After all, we have experienced this ourselves in a Danish context and have moved on from it. Now it is in Sweden that he is touring. That, I think, is shameful.”
But, as the President of Turkey is seizing on the issue to make some political hay, Rasmussen says that it is “very, very important” that all other NATO member states show full support for Sweden’s NATO application.
“It comes with a price to live in an open democracy with freedom of expression, and there you have to separate things. And there it is a task for all of us to explain to our Turkish friends what the conditions are like in an open democracy like here and in Sweden.”
🇳🇴/ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦
Russia is taking huge losses for not much in the way of any meaningful gains in its disastrous invasion of Ukraine. Neither Russia or Ukraine has revealed reliable numbers of its war dead. A number of agencies have been trying to keep track using a number of sources and methods. Now the Norwegian Army is getting into the game. It released estimates that Russia has suffered around 180,000 soldiers killed or wounded in the invasion.
Norwegian Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen spoke to TV2:
“Russian losses are beginning to approach around 180,000 dead or wounded soldiers. Ukrainian losses are probably over 100,000 dead or wounded. In addition, Ukraine has about 30,000 civilians who died in this terrible war.”
Kristoffersen said that Russia doesn’t appear to be terribly phased by the huge loss of life, saying despite huge losses “Russia is able to continue [this war] for quite a long time. What worries most is whether Ukraine is going to be able to keep the Russian air force out of the war.”
He says donations of more modern tanks in Ukraine, and getting them there as fast as possible, will help Ukrainian forces go on a winter offensive and undermine Russian efforts to try and regain momentum in the spring.
🇪🇪🇱🇻/ 🇷🇺
Diplomatic relations between Russia and the Baltic states continue to erode. On Monday, Russia ordered Estonia’s Ambassador to pack up and get out as it reduced its diplomatic presence with Estonia to the level of chargé d’affaires.
Estonia reacted quickly and in a tit-for tat move informed the Russian ambassador he was to leave the country and he had until his Estonian counterpart got on the plane in Russia to do it.
Estonian Foreign Affairs Minister Urmas Reinsalu:
Reinsalu is also lobbying for a quick adoption of a 10th tranche of sanctions against Russia by the European Union. He also wants the price cap placed on Russian oil to be lowered.
Latvia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs was quick to side with Estonia.
“Due to the ongoing brutal Russian aggression against Ukraine and in solidarity with Estonia, Latvia will now lower level of its diplomatic relations with Russia effective February 24, demanding Russia to act accordingly.”
🇪🇪/ 🇷🇺
Estonia is raising the ante as it draws a hard line against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Baltic country will contribute 1% of its GDP for military aid to Ukraine.
Estonian Ambassador Kaimo Kuusk with a thinly veiled message to Germany.
“We want to create a precedent so that other countries will not have any excuses for why they cannot provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons to win the war.”
To that end, Estonia has sent Ukraine another weapons package, its largest to-date. It will send all of its 155-mm howitzers to Ukraine along with thousands of artillery shells, hundreds of M2 Karl-Gustaf anti-tank grenade launchers with ammunition, and other “means of support” for the artillery units.
🇳🇴/ 🇷🇺
The alleged former soldier who claims to have had a position of authority in the Wagner group before fleeing to Norway to seek political asylum, has been arrested. Norwegian authorities have charged Andrej Medvedev under Norway’s Aliens Act, which governs rules around illegal immigration. Norwegian police are now assessing the charges against him.
One of the police units involved is called Kripos and it is responsible for investigating war crimes charges and participating in international investigations of war crimes in Ukraine at the International Criminal Court. Medvedev’s lawyer says he is willing to testify against his former mercenary group and it’s founder.