The Evening Report - Jan 20
Denmark will reveal plans to phase out COVID restrictions next week
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Denmark’s Epidemic Commission has been asked to assess the COVID situation and what restrictions can be further eased. It has also been asked to reassess whether coronavirus should continue to be designated as a ‘socially critical disease.’ The designation is due to expire February 5, unless it is extended. The designation provides the legal foundation for the government to levy restrictions, and should it be removed or expire then virtually all remaining restrictions would then also vanish.
Denmark’s Health Ministry says the recommendations from the Epidemic Commission will be received at the beginning of next week. They will then be presented to the parliamentary parties.
Health Minister Magnus Heunicke says he expects to be able to announce the plan for further easing COVID restrictions by next Wednesday.
“Despite high infection rates, we see an encouraging development in the number of admissions, especially in intensive care. This is not least due to the large vaccine connection, where Denmark is among the countries in the world that are at the forefront with the 3rd vaccine doses. It provides a solid basis for epidemic control, and I look forward to receiving the Epidemic Commission's recommendation.”
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Infections and hospitalizations up while intensive care numbers tumble. The latest weekly COVID assessment from Denmark’s Staten Serum Institut says infection cases rose by 35% from the first to second week of January. While hospital admissions also jumped by 16%.
The SSI notes infection activity was once running amok among children. The latest weekly report found case counts over the Christmas holidays were highest among kids aged 6 to 15 years old. Even more concerning, high infection activity is also being seen among children 3 to 5 years old. The COVID incidence rate also rocketed upward from one week to the next among Danish 6 to 9 year olds going from 2,482 per 100,000 people to 6,345 from the first to the second week of January.
The COVID incidence rate in Denmark continues to be on an upward march going from 2,180 cases per 100,000 citizens to 2,937 from the first to second week of the new year.
However, the SSI says there are some good reasons for hope when you take a closer look at the data. Intensive care unit admissions and the number of people on a ventilator both continue to fall. As well, the institut notes the number of people being hospitalized for a non-COVID reason but who are found to be infected is rising while numbers drop for people being hospitalized because of a severe infection.
Going by age, the number of young people being admitted for a COVID infection has decreased from week 1 to week 2, while hospitalizations remain high, although easing slightly for seniors.
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On the Omicron variant front, the Staten Serum Institut continues to see variant numbers rise among COVID patients for both general hospital care and in intensive care units. Omicron infections among hospitalized patients have gone from 66% in mid-December to 96% in the second week of January.
The same story is playing out in intensive care units, where 80% of infected patients had the new variant in week 2.
Ward Doctor Rebecca Legarth:
“The infection is now mainly being driven by the Omicron variant. And as it spreads we have seen more subdued growth in the number of overall admissions and a decrease in admissions to intensive care units. This is considered to be because the Omicron variant is less severe in relation to the delta variant. We also see that more people are admitted for reasons other than COVID, even though they are infected. However, we can still see a marked difference in the risk of being admitted between unvaccinated and vaccinated.”
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Denmark reported a record high 40,626 COVID infections, including 2,639 reinfections, and 15 more coronavirus deaths in the last day. This marks the first day ever in the pandemic where the number of daily reported cases exceeded 40,000.
There were 483,313 total corona tests on Wednesday, of which 230,791 were PCR tests equaling a positivity percentage of 17.60%.
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In a preprint submitted to the medical journal ‘The Lancet’ a study from Denmark’s Staten Serum Institut found that the risk of hospitalization fell by over a third for Omicron infections compared to Delta. The study has not yet been peer-reviewed.
The study included 188,980 people who tested positive from November 21 to December 19 last year. Of those, there were 38,669 people who had an Omicron variant infection and 150,311 ware infected with the Delta variant. Of the Omicron group 222 (0.6%) ended up in hospital, compared to 2,213 (1.5%) in the Delta group. The study concludes an Omicron infection is 36% less likely to result in being hospitalized.
Professional Director Tyra Grove Krause says the results are good news.
“In addition, over the study period, we can see that vaccination can prevent three out of four admissions, both omicron and delta-related, among people who test positive. This shows that part of the decoupling between infection rates and hospitalization rates is due to the new variant, but that it is even more so due to the high vaccination coverage.”
In total, those who tested positive but were vaccinated were 75% less likely to be hospitalized than someone who was not vaccinated.
But questions about the impacts of the Omicron variant still remain unanswered.
“Based on data from the study, it is still too early to conclude on the severity of the hospitalization itself. Including the length of hospital stay and the risk of being admitted to intensive care.”
For those who want to have a read of the full preprint, you can find it HERE.
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COVID hospitalizations (825) crept upward (+4) while the number of infected people in an ICU (49) inched down (-1) of those the number on a ventilator (28) also edged down (-2) and the number admitted to a psychiatric ward (195) is up (+4).
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On the vaccination front, there were 26,375 total inoculations yesterday with booster doses (21,406) continuing to drive the numbers.
To date, 82.4% of the total population has one dose, 80.3% have two, and 58.4% have a booster shot.
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It looks like a fair number of Danes haven’t been keeping all that socially distant. Despite closing all bars, dance clubs, and discos, and despite COVID restrictions, which included cutting way back on alcohol sales, there was a record-breaking number of chlamydia infections in Denmark last year. This is according to a press release from the group Sex and Society.
Last year, 29,443 chlamydia cases were diagnosed among those 15 to 29 years old, an increase on the last record year in 2018 with 28,208 confirmed cases of the STD.
Kolding Kommune led the way with the highest chlamydia rates last year, followed by Vejle, Aalborg, and Randers.
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Sweden has added 41,374 infections and another six corona deaths since yesterday’s update.
A record high 39,928 COVID cases have been reported on January 19.
So far, 86.4% of the population 12 years old and older have one dose, 83.1% have two, and of those 18 years old and older 39.6% have a booster dose.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency has changed mandated COVID isolation to, in most cases, five days. The agency cites staffing shortage crises due to infection-related absences, which it says are resulting in serious consequences for socially critical activities. The five days of quarantine begin when someone begins to exhibit symptoms or is diagnosed as being infected.
It also has shortened the isolation period to five days for those with a COVID infection, with the added caveat they must also be fever free for at least 48 hours.
However, the agency has exempted certain people from isolating at all, even if they are a close contact or living with an infected person, as long as they are asymptomatic.
Anyone who has had a booster dose.
Anyone who has had, and recovered from, a COVID infection in the last three months.
Anyone working in “certain key functions in societally important activities” who don’t meet the criteria above. But employers must put risk reduction measures in place.
The health agency says workers who are exempt but who are close contacts or live with an infected person must avoid social contacts “outside of work and school.” If at all possible they should work from home.
CEO Karin Tegmark Wisell says three vaccine doses offer strong protection against infection.
“Vaccination is the best protection against serious illness and death, and therefore, it is important that everyone who has not yet been vaccinated does so, and that those who are offered a booster dose accept the offer. After dose three, there is also increased protection against infection. Therefore, vaccination also contributes to reduced spread of infection.”
The agency also recommends employers who have workers covered under the exemptions put in screening routines, especially in environments involving vulnerable populations, for example in healthcare facilities and senior care.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency says the massive Omicron infection wave is overwhelming its testing system, even with over 520,000 corona tests last week, a record high, and equal to about a days worth of testing in Denmark. The agency says there have been several hundred thousand COVID infections a week and now testing needs to be prioritized “where they do the most good.” It is advising Swedish regions to give lower testing priority to people who do not need to be physically at work.
Further, the agency advises anyone who is symptomatic to avoid all social contacts. It says anyone testing positive with a rapid test should just assume it is accurate and behave like they are in fact infected instead of trying to confirm it with a PCR test. Close contacts of people who have tested positive in a quick test should also isolate; this includes children.
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The number of COVID hospitalizations crept upward in Sweden’s capital region with 519 corona patients, an increase of four from Wednesday. 22 of those are in an ICU. Across Region Stockholm there are 172 empty beds, a number down from the 187 the day before.
The region continued to see an eye-popping positivity percentage of 56% on Thursday.
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Finland has registered 8,368 infections and another 28 virus deaths in the last 24 hours.
COVID hospitalizations (718) are unchanged.
So far, 76% of the total population has one vaccine dose, 73% have two, and 36.4% have a booster dose. The graph below shows vaccinations by age and dose.
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COVID infections in Finland almost doubled in the first two weeks of January compared to infection numbers in the last two weeks of December. The Finnish Institute for Health also notes in its weekly assessment that the strain continues to build on specialist and primary hospital care. Omicron is on the march across Finland like it is everywhere else.
All told, the agency says 112,900 new infections were recorded in the first two weeks of the year. The COVID incidence rate also jumped, going from 1,190 per 100,000 people to 2,030 from the last two weeks of December to the first two weeks in January. The positivity percentage is also rising, going from 29% in week 1 to 32% of the 173,000 tests done in week 2.
Finland seems to be something of an anomaly when it comes to hospitalizations, with general COVID admissions decreasing a little from the first to second week of January. While ICU increased slightly.
The first two weeks of the new year saw 138 pandemic deaths in Finland, according to the national health agency. Of those, the institute says, 87% were 70 years old and older.
The agency says over the last four months of 2021, unvaccinated people were 14 times more likely to need specialist medical care and 27 times more likely to end up in an ICU compared to those who were vaccinated.
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Finland’s National Emergency Supply Agency has ordered six-million COVID self-testing kits, which will be earmarked for use by the nation’s schools. YLE reports the purchase must not cost any more than €10 million, according to the procurement order from government ministries. The first shipments of the home-testing kits should arrive in Finland in about three weeks, with subsequent deliveries arriving in the following weeks.
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Norway added a record high 15,987 infections and one more pandemic death in the last day.
COVID hospitalizations (249) were up (+9) while the number of severely infected people in an ICU (70) edged down (-2) and of those the number on a ventilator (51) increased slightly (+4).
To date, 79.8% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one dose, 73.6% have two, and 44.6% have a booster.
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health provided a breakdown of vaccinations:
53% of those 12 to 15 year olds have one dose.
82% of young people, 16 and 17 year olds have one dose and 36% have two.
51% of people 18 years old and older have a booster dose.
73% of those 45 years old and older have a booster shot.
87% of the population 65 years old and older have been boosted.
62% of primary healthcare workers and 74% of those in specialist care have booster doses.
51% of school teachers and school staff have had a booster.
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Norway saw the highest number of coronavirus infections of any week in the pandemic last week with 70,342, a 52% increase from the first week of the year. The latest COVID assessment from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health says while case numbers increased across all age groups, those six to 19 years old saw the most infection activity.
The use of self-testing kits in Norway is quite widespread, with the institute noting just 1.4% registered their positive test. So infection numbers to some degree in Norway are underreported.
It wasn’t just infections either, as the NIPH notes, a 23% increase in COVID hospitalizations in the same week. There were 218 patients admitted in week 2. However, the agency says if you look closer at the numbers, the rates of admissions, with COVID being the main cause, are declining while the number of people being admitted for other reasons but who are infected are increasing. The agency attributes this to both the Omicron causing less severe illness and the sheer infection saturation across the population. Hospitalizations decreased across all age groups except for those 17 years old and younger, which saw an increase.
The increasing hospitalizations and decreasing numbers of ICU patients trend is playing out in Norway as it is in Denmark and other countries. The NIPH says there were 18 severely infected people admitted to intensive care last week, a 42% decrease from the week before. Of those in intensive care, 46% were unvaccinated, the rest were an almost even split between those with two and three doses. The health agency notes vaccinated people being admitted to the ICU are generally older with underlying health conditions making them a higher COVID risk.
24 people died due to a coronavirus infection in Norway in the second week of January. The health institute says the median age of those fatalities was 81.
Omicron is king of the variants in Norway, accounting for 94% of all sequenced positive test results in week 2. However, the Norwegian health agency notes the Omicron sub-variant BA.2 is “increasing rapidly” growing from seven confirmed cases on January 4, to 611 by the 19th. The NIPH says it is outpacing the parent Omicron strain indicating it is even more infectious, but whether it causes more hospitalizations or evades antibody protection to any greater degree are the big unanswered questions.
The NIPH calculates the COVID R0 as being between 1.2 and 1.6, with cases doubling every one to two weeks. It warns that municipalities and hospitals must make every effort to vaccinate as many people as possible while also bracing for major staffing shortages due to widespread infection over the next few weeks.
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The Norwegian Public Institute of Health says the number of respiratory infections other than coronavirus has been dropping for weeks. In the first week of January, respiratory tract infections, RS virus infections, and influenza accounted for 72% of hospital admissions, compared to 27% due to a coronavirus infection.
On the influenza front, the NIPH says cases were increasing in the weeks leading up to Christmas but then stagnated by the last week of the year. This would fall roughly in line with when Norway imposed COVID restrictions. So far, in 2022, the agency says, neither the number of cases nor the proportion of influenza have shown any signs of increasing.
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COVID numbers continue to soar in Germany, with the country’s public health body, the Robert Koch Institute, reporting 133,536 new infections along with another 234 virus deaths.
In the last 24 hours, there were 1,116 more hospitalizations, while the numbers of coronavirus patients in intensive care (2,571) continues to trend downward (-93).
So far, 75.3% of the population have at least one vaccine dose, 73.1% have two, and 48.9% have a booster shot.
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Austria’s parliament passed legislation Thursday making COVID vaccinations mandatory for all adults as of February 1. The legislation must now pass the upper house and then be signed by President Alexander Van der Bellen. Austrian media report this will largely be a formality meaning no major roadblocks remain for the vaccination mandate.
Austria has one of the lowest vaccination rates in Europe and the country has increasingly come down hard on those who refuse to get their shots. The unvaccinated were placed under a lockdown late last year and can only leave their homes for essential purposes.
Austria’s mandatory vaccination policy will be backed up with stiff fines of €600 (about $850 Cdn) with vaccination checks set to begin in March. To really crank up the pressure, the bill sets out a maximum fine of €3,600 (about $5,100 Cdn) for anyone who challenges their fine in court and loses.
Austria will have the strictest vaccination mandate in Europe but not the only one as both Italy, Greece, and a handful of other countries all have mandatory vaccination policies but those are generally aimed towards people over the age of 50 or 60.
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While Austria comes down hard on the unvaccinated, it is easing up a little on entry restrictions. It has removed Denmark and several other European countries from its list of countries deemed as ‘high-risk areas.’ Travelers can enter the country without having to quarantine as long as they can show proof of being fully vaccinated plus a booster, or have two doses and a negative PCR test no more than 72 hours old, or show proof of a recent infection. For those who have been infected, have recovered, but are still testing positive, Austria will once again accept a doctors note documenting the recent infection and recovery.
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France is extending its booster shot effort to children between the ages of 12 to 17 with 3rd doses beginning on Monday. France has been administering booster doses to its adult population since November. The French vaccine passport system applies to those 12 years old and up, but to be designated as fully vaccinated, children 12 to 17 just need two doses. Adults must have three doses to keep their vaccine passport valid.
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Europe continues to be swamped in shades of COVID high-risk deep red in the latest pandemic situation map from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
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Canada reported 22,298 COVID infections on Wednesday while losing another 181 lives to the coronavirus, which pushes total-to-date pandemic deaths over 32,000. Just a reminder the infection numbers are very underreported due to an array of testing issues across the provinces.
The national positivity percentage is 22.2%.
The Canadian vaccination effort has so far administered 31,728,564 1st doses (82.98% of the total population) while 29,731,427 people (77.76%) have two doses, and of those 13,435,364 are fully vaccinated with three doses.
Due to testing efforts being overwhelmed or having collapsed entirely across the country, we are now focusing on hospital numbers, and the positivity percentage as a more accurate assessment of the pandemic situation in the provinces.
Ontario saw COVID hospital admissions (4,132) decline for a 2nd day (-71) and those in intensive care (594) increased (+5) to the highest number since June of last year. The province lost 75 more lives to the pandemic. It has a positivity percentage of 15.9%, which seems to be slowly easing.
In Quebec hospitalizations (3,411) edged down (-14) while the number of people in an ICU (285) was unchanged. The province had 98 more corona deaths. It also has a positivity percentage of 15.3%.
Newfoundland and Labrador has seen a record high number of hospitalizations (20) after numbers crept up (+2). There were also two more deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 25%. This as it prepares to send kids back to school next week.
Nova Scotia hospital admissions (85) crept up (+2) and ICU numbers (12) were unchanged. Three more corona deaths were reported. The province has a positivity percentage of 15.8%.
Hospital numbers inched up in New Brunswick with 124 hospitalizations and 12 people in intensive care, an increase of one in both cases. The province also suffered three more deaths.
Manitoba added 34 more hospitalizations pushing the total to 665, while another three people were admitted to an ICU to make it 50 total. The province reported seven more deaths. It has a positivity percentage of 33.2%.
Saskatchewan’s hospital admissions (215) continue to rise (+16) with ICU numbers (23) also creeping upward (+2). Hospitalizations have increased 75% in a week. The province has a positivity percentage of 33%.
Alberta saw hospitalizations (1,131) hit a record high as numbers surged (+42) the number of severely infected people in an ICU (108) is also climbing (+26). The province has eight more corona deaths. It has a positivity percentage of 33%.
In B.C. hospitalizations (891) increased (+37) while ICU numbers (119) also rose (+7). The province registered 15 more pandemic fatalities. It has a positivity percentage of 17.69%.