The Evening Report - Jan 13
Has the Omicron wave peaked in Denmark?
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Denmark has extended all existing travel restrictions until at least the end of January. This means all inbound travelers, including those who are fully vaccinated, must have a negative test in hand before boarding their flight. A PCR test cannot be any older than 72 hours and a rapid test is only good for 48 hours. Citizens and permanent residents of Denmark can choose to be tested before their flight or within 24 hours after returning to the country. People with a recent COVID infection are exempt.
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The infection growth sending daily COVID cases to record highs is slowing down in Denmark. That is according to the latest weekly assessment from the Staten Serum Institut. It says infections in the first week of the year increased by 6% compared to the last week of 2021. The weekly positivity percentage average for the week also eased slightly, going from 14.4% in the last week of 2021 to 13.9% in the first week of January.
Ward Doctor Rebecca Legarth:
“Even though the infection is still at its highest level of the entire COViD epidemic, growth is declining. We will follow this closely in the coming weeks to see if the trend holds.”
2021 ended with the 20 to 24 year old age group seeing the highest infection activity. However, 2022 has begun with 16 to 19 year olds now bearing the brunt of infections. That age group had an infection rate per 100,000 people of 5,651, compared to a rate of 4,368 for the 20 to 24 year olds. If you compare infection growth as a percentage between the two age groups from one week to the next, it is 75% and 28% respectively.
The Omicron variant has all but wiped out the Delta strain in Denmark, making up 95% of all daily sequenced positive test results as of January 9.
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The Staten Serum Institut is noting an increase in COVID deaths, which went from 63 in the last week of December to 97 in the first week of January. The SSI also warns that Denmark is seeing “significant excess mortality” over recent weeks, especially among those 75 years old and older, but also in younger age groups as well.
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Across four of Denmark’s five health regions, there were 45 COVID outbreaks in healthcare facilities the first week of the year. The largest outbreak saw the virus sweep through 50 health staff.
Outbreaks aside, Staten Serum Institut data shows 3,983 healthcare workers tested positive for COVID in the first week of January. The cast majority, 3,673, had two vaccine doses. This marks the third straight week of increasing coronavirus infections among healthcare workers.
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There were 108 COVID outbreaks in schools or related to schools across Denmark in the first week of the year. While that sounds like a lot, it compares to 526 school outbreaks in the week kids were sent home early for Christmas break due to the infection situation.
All told, 3,525 teachers and school staff from primary schools, high schools, and vocational schools tested positive in the first week of the year.
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Denmark is reporting 25,751 COVID infections, including 1,822 reinfections, and 20 more coronavirus deaths in the last day.
Yesterday there were 446,008 total corona tests done, of which 211,603 were PCR tests equaling a positivity percentage of 12.16%.
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Travel-related COVID infections among people in Denmark who have traveled outside the country accounted for 1.3% of all coronavirus infections (1,641) in the first week of January.
As for infections brought in by tourists, 10,078 people arrived in Denmark in the first week of the year and tested positive. That is a positivity percentage of 12.9% for just incoming travelers.
Broken down by country, Spain tops the list for the most travel-related infections followed by Sweden and then Norway.
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COVID hospitalizations (755) nudged upward (+4) while the number of infected people in an ICU (64) fell (-9) and of those the number on a ventilator (38) is also down (-8) and the number of corona admissions to a psychiatric ward (153) increased (+15).
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The number of people admitted to hospital due to a COVID infection continues to decrease. Data from the Staten Serum Institut shows that coronavirus admissions declined from 78% to 72% from September to December. While the proportion of hospitalizations for non-pandemic reasons keeps creeping upward, going from 18% to 24% over the same period.
Overall COVID hospital admissions were stable with 1,126 in the first week of January compared to 1,140 in the last week of December. Denmark continues to see higher rates of hospitalizations among those who are not vaccinated, with a rate of 60 admissions per 100,000 people, compared to a rate of just 19 for those with two doses.
The Omicron variant is making its presence felt in hospitals as it shows up in a rapidly increasing number of sequenced positive tests from COVID patients. In the first week of January of the 34% of coronavirus patients who had results of a PCR test sequenced, the new variant accounted for 86% of infections. That is a rather hefty increase from the 23% of just two weeks earlier. The variant is also gaining ground among those admitted to intensive care, making up 50% of sequenced positive test results from 40% of new admissions with returned test results.
By age hospitalizations are rising among the elderly and slowing declining among everyone under the age of 60. During Christmas week, the proportion of infected people being hospitalized who were 60 years old or older was 82%. At the same time, the proportion of corona admissions for everyone under the age of 60 dropped from 67% to 61%.
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On the vaccination front, there were 41,239 total inoculations yesterday, with most, 31,602, being booster doses.
To date, 82.3% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 79.8% have two, and 55.1% have a booster dose.
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As of Sunday, the Danish coronapas will have some changes. The vaccine passport will only be valid for five months after having a second dose for everyone 18 years old and older. It retains its valid ‘green’ status once a booster dose is administered. For those with a one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccination, the five month window is from the first dose.
As of right now, a third dose has no expiry date in the coronapas.
Kids who are 15 to 17 years old have not yet been approved to have a booster dose. That means their coronapas will remain valid even after five months have passed since they had a 2nd dose. Once a booster dose is approved for that age group expect the coronapas to be tweaked again.
For immunity after infection, the coronapas will change so that it will be suspended for just 11 days after a positive test. A ‘green’ coronapas because of a recent infection will also be limited to five months.
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A majority in the Danish parliament have agreed to raise the ceiling on attendees for cultural events. Three sections of 500 spectators each will be allowed for 1,500 total attendees permitted. The Epidemic Commission, made up of health experts who advise the government, had recommended a ceiling of 350 people.
The configuration will come into force on Sunday for indoor sporting events, movie cinemas, theatres, cultural venues, and sports facilities.
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Sweden has added 25,567 infections, including a record high 25,215 yesterday, and another 20 corona deaths since its update.
So far, 86.2% of the population 12 years old and older have one dose, 82.5% have two, and 34.5% of those 18 years old and older have a booster dose.
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The Omicron-driven infection wave hitting Sweden is like nothing the country has seen before according to State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell in a Thursday news conference.
“We have a very rapid increase in the spread of infection that we have not come close to seeing before. been close to before. This does not mean that the vaccine is ineffective in any way. Against hospitalization and serious illness, the vaccine still offers strong protection.”
The Swedish Public Health Agency has tabled new pandemic forecasts. It has two potential scenarios. One forecasts daily infections reaching 47,000 cases a day, while the other anticipates a higher number, 69,000. Tegnell wouldn’t say if one was more likely than the other, but he did warn hospitals to brace for a wave of coronavirus patients.
“It is quite clear that the healthcare sector will need to handle more cases.”
Tegnell noted Sweden’s testing capacity has not kept pace with the rapid increase in infections. He says with record high daily infection numbers, it will be difficult for testing capacity to catch up.
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The number of coronavirus infections in Swedish nursing homes is rocketing upward. According to statistics from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare and reported by Ekot COVID numbers have risen tenfold in just the last two weeks.
In the first week of January there were 1,528 COVID infections, double the number from the week before, and ten times higher than two weeks prior.
Seniors Coordinator Michaela Prochazka spoke to Ekot:
“The number of people infected now is very high. The last time we saw the same amount of infection in nursing homes was at the beginning of 2021.”
However, while infections have shot upward the number of hospitalizations and virus deaths has not followed suit.
“The difference now is that most are vaccinated and have had a booster dose. So what we can see now is that they do not get as sick as a year ago.”
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Norway added 6,527 infections and 9 more pandemic deaths in the last day.
COVID hospitalizations (243) are down (-21) ICU numbers (79) are also down (-1).
To date, 79.7% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one dose, 73.3% have two, and 38.6% have a booster shot.
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On Thursday, Norway announced it is easing some COVID restrictions. A national ban on alcohol sales has been rescinded, with bars and restaurants allowed to resume selling booze, but only table service and only until 11pm.
The number of people permitted at private events in a public venue like a restaurant has been increased to 30 for events without designated seating. With designated seating the cap is increased to 200.
Restrictions on outside sporting events for young people have been lifted. For indoor exercising groups are capped at 20 with social distancing rules.
The number of guests in a private home outside the people who live there will remain capped at 10. Also remaining in place are mask mandates, social distancing rules, and a recommendation for people to work from home whereever possible.
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Brace for a significant winter infection wave. The Norwegian Institute for Public Health says an Omicron-driven wave cannot be stopped, and the best bet now is to try and keep a lid on it as much as possible. The NIPH says Omicron is now dominant in Norway, accounting for “almost all corona infections.”
The latest Omicron threat assessment from the agency shows a possible winter wave with 50,000 or fewer daily infections and fewer than 200 new daily hospitalizations.
Director Camilla Stoltenberg notes as is the case with all modeling due to having so many variables, there are no guarantees.
“There is great uncertainty, especially about the figures for admissions and intensive care. Changes in restrictions can affect the risk. The Omicron wave is not possible to stop. Now it is a matter of balancing between letting the infection spread and holding back sufficiently so as not to have a large simultaneous disease burden and overload hospitals. Infections will also contribute to us getting better immunity in the population.”
Stoltenberg says they have a much clearer picture of the new variant now and have more confidence in saying it has less of a punch than the Delta variant it is replacing.
“The Omicron variant offers significantly less risk than the Delta variant for causing serious illness in the infected, at least if they have been vaccinated. Unvaccinated people are many times more likely to have a serious infection than vaccinated people. Old age and underlying disease increase the risk.”
The institute says it is now a matter of slowing the epidemic down as much as possible with the fewest possible intervention measures so as to manage a tricky balance between an open society and being swamped with COVID infections.
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Finland has registered 14,277 infections and 12 more virus deaths.
Tragically, one of the deaths was a young child in primary school. The child was hospitalized due to COVID last weekend and then passed away. The child belonged to a high-risk group, but it is still unclear if the child’s death was directly caused by corona infection. If it is confirmed this would be the first time a child has died in the pandemic in Finland.
COVID hospitalizations (700) are unchanged.
To date, 77.6% of the total population have one dose, 74.3% have two, and 30.4% have a booster shot.
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Close all pubs, bars, and nightclubs for at least three weeks, that is the recommendation of the Finnish Institute for Health. The agency wants nightlife venues to close in all areas of the country deemed to be in the highest of Finland’s COVID alert status. Currently, all of the regions in Finland are classified as being in that highest alert stage, the ‘community transmission’ stage. YLE reports a ministerial working group will meet Thursday (today) to discuss the recommendation. The move, if approved, would require legislation to be passed by the Finnish government, something that will take some time. Last weekend, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin told YLE that an across the board shutdown of nightlife venues may be needed as the infection situation worsens.
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Finland is in the throes of an Omicron-driven infection wave, with the number of new COVID cases almost tripling since December. The latest weekly assessment from the Finnish Institute for Health says there were 53,600 infections last week, an increase on the 42,100 from the week before. The COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people is also rocketing up, going from 629 to 1,721 from one two week period to the next. The agency also notes increasing numbers of breakthrough infections among those who are fully vaccinated.
Pressure is also building on hospitals with 311 patients registered on January 12, an increase from 239 seven days prior. Intensive care numbers are also creeping up. Last week there were 59 infected people admitted to an ICU compared to between 36 and 40 each of the four weeks prior.
The institute says there were 140 virus deaths in the last two weeks and of those 78% were people over the age of 70.
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The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control’s latest COVID risk assessment map for the EU is out and it is almost solidly deep high-risk red.
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Pfizer/BioNTech has begun production of a COVID vaccine adapted to deal with the Omicron variant as global infections surge to never-before-seen heights. Biontech CEO Ugur Sahin said this week clinical trials of the newly reformulated vaccine will begin by months end.
“We assume that we will be ready to deliver to the market by March, if official approvals are in place.”
The company says it expects to be able to produce about 50 to 100 million doses of the new vaccine by late March to early April.
One potential hurdle will be whether groups like the European Medicines Agency, responsible for approving pharmaceutical use in Europe, will consider this a different enough formulation that it requires a whole new approval process. If not then it could piggyback on the approval of the existing Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine with a much more expedient approvals process.
It is also worth noting, Pfizer/BioNTech warned that we still have a long way to go before we can exit the pandemic. The company says due to the global spread of the coronavirus it has “a huge reservoir for new variants that could spread quickly.”
WHO🌏
The World Health Organization is sending a warning to those who are unvaccinated and asking that attention also be turned to supporting beleaguered healthcare workers on the front lines of the pandemic.
WHO Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says the pandemic is far from over.
“Last week, more than 15 million new cases of COVID were reported to WHO from around the world, by far the most cases reported in a single week, and we know this is an underestimate. This huge spike in infections is being driven by the Omicron variant, which is rapidly replacing Delta in almost all countries."
Dr. Tedros noted a sliver of positive news in all the numbers.
“The number of weekly reported deaths has remained stable since October of last year, at an average of 48,000 deaths a week. While the number of patients being hospitalized is increasing in most countries, it is not at the level seen in previous waves.”
That said, he added, 48,000 coronavirus deaths a week is 48,000 too much.
He also warned that while the Omicron variant may cause a less severe illness, it should not be underestimated.
“But let’s be clear, while Omicron causes a less severe disease than Delta, it remains a dangerous virus, particularly for those who are unvaccinated. We mustn't allow this virus a free ride or wave the white flag, especially when so many people around the world remain unvaccinated. In Africa, over 85% of people have yet to receive a single dose of a vaccine. We can't end the acute phase of the pandemic unless we close this gap.”
Dr. Tedros also notes the sheer number of Omicron infections means the burden on hospitals is going to be immense and people who are unvaccinated are directly in harms way.
“The overwhelming majority of people admitted to hospitals around the world are unvaccinated. While vaccines remain very effective at preventing severe COVID disease and death, they do not fully prevent transmission. More transmission means more hospitalizations, more deaths, more people off work, including teachers, and healthcare-workers, and more risk of another variant emerging that is even more transmissible and more deadly than Omicron.”
He adds that under all of this are healthcare-workers who have been on the front lines of the pandemic for years enduring unrelenting infection waves.
“The sheer number of COVID cases also means more pressure on already overburdened and exhausted health-workers. Protecting those most at risk also helps to protect health systems and staff, which are once again under increased strain because of the burden of Omicron? A study published last year showed that more than 1 in 4 healthcare-workers globally have experienced mental health issues during the pandemic.”
DR. Tedros says data from several countries shows that healthcare-workers are burnt out, run off their feet, traumatized, and facing serious staffing challenges, with many having either left their jobs or are seriously considering it. He says this is a serious problem and one the world needs to turn its attention too.
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A major healthcare union is warning the Omicron infection wave could bring the healthcare system “to its knees.” The Canadian Federation of Nurses Union is lobbying the government to quickly impose circuit-breakers to try and stem the COVID tide.
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Canada reported 32,475 COVID infections (likely massively underreported) and another 125 corona deaths on Wednesday.
The Canadian vaccination effort has so far administered 31,592,144 1st vaccine doses (82.62% of the total population) while 29,576,676 people (77.35%) have two doses and of those 11,045,735 are fully vaccinated with three doses.
Due to an array of testing issues we are now focusing on hospital numbers and the positivity percentage for the provinces as a more accurate assessment of the pandemic situation.
Ontario hospitalizations (3,630) rose again (+182) to set a new record high, while ICU patients (500) declined slightly (-5). There have been 34 more fatalities. The province has a positivity percentage of 21.2%.
Quebec hospitalizations (2,994) have hit another record high (+117) while ICU numbers (272) also rose (+9). The province saw another 45 pandemic deaths. It has a positivity percentage of 20.29%.
In Atlantic Canada, Newfoundland and Labrador have eight hospitalizations (+1) while three people are in intensive care. Nova Scotia has 59 hospitalizations (+5) with seven people in an ICU. New Brunswick is moving into a lockdown as its hospital system descends into crisis. There are record high hospitalizations (104) and another nine people in an ICU. The province also had four more deaths.
Manitoba saw hospitalizations (499) rise (+45) while ICU patients (47) crept up (+1). Another nine deaths have been recorded. The province has a crazy high positivity percentage of 44.9%
Hospitalizations in Saskatchewan (123) crept up (+2) while ICU admissions (11) also increased slightly (+2). The province hasn’t recorded a corona death in a week. It has a positivity percentage of 28%. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has tested positive.
Alberta hospitalizations (786) continued to climb (+38) while the number of infected people in an ICU (79) edged downward (-3). There were eight more corona deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 40.9%.
B.C. set a new record high for hospitalizations (534) which rose day to day (+34) while ICU numbers (102) are unchanged. The province has a positivity percentage of 17.35%