The Evening Report - Jan 10
Global temperatures rise. COVID deaths mount.
⚡️Energy & Environment🍃
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2023 was the hottest year on record as global surface temperatures surged to highs never seen before. According to data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2023 will end up being 1.48 °C warmer than the average for 1850-1900, the pre-industrial reference period. Global temperatures have been recorded since 1850.
During the year daily global temperature averages even briefly exceeded pre-industrial levels by more than 2 °C. That is the crucial threshold that scientists have warned for years that if exceeded it would have catastrophic and irreversible impacts on the planet.
Danish Meteorological Institute’s Head of the National Center for Climate Research Adrian Lema:
“Last year was the year of records. The months of June, July, August, September, October, November, and December 2023 each separately broke the record temperature for the month in question. Just under half of the days in 2023 were more than 1.5°C warmer than before we started emitting greenhouse gases, and two days in November were, for the first time ever, more than 2°C warmer. These are temperatures which are unfortunately associated with worrying weather extremes. The global greenhouse gases also broke a record in 2023. We have not yet exceeded the limit of 1.5 °C adopted in the Paris Agreement, but we have also probably not seen the full effect of the weather phenomenon El Niño yet.”
Last year, the El Niño weather phenomena exacerbated the climate impacts caused by concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere contributing to extreme weather events.
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The Danish government would like to see recycling and reuse expanded to include the construction industry.
Denmark’s Environment Minister Magnus Heunicke:
“We are negotiating a bill in the Parliament today with new rules for how we demolish buildings so that the materials can be reused and recycled to a greater extent. On Thursday I visited the company a:gain, which uses waste to produce new products. The company's work is proof that materials that are carefully taken down and sorted during demolition can be used for new building materials. We must reuse and recycle much more, including in the construction industry.”
According to the EU statistics agency EuroStat the construction sector was responsible for about 35.7% of the total waste generated within the EU in 2018. The construction industry is also the single largest global consumer of resources and raw materials eating up about half of the global steel production and around 3 billion tonnes of raw materials each year.
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Oatmeal was on the table during a Plant Congress in the Danish city of Herning this week. No, it wasn’t offered for breakfast rather it was the topic of discussion on how to find new and more sustainable ways to grow and harvest it. The Congress was attended by around 1,600 farmers, researchers, and other professionals as they discussed how to make agriculture more climate-friendly.
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The big freeze appears to be over for now. The Danish Meteorological Institute says a cold air front from Siberia was responsible for all the frigid weather. On Tuesday, temperatures reached -14.8 degrees in Isenvad, which ironically translates to ‘Ice wad’ in English. That was the coldest recorded temperature in the country this past week.
DMI says we will now return to the usual Danish winter weather with temperatures hovering around zero with grey cloudy skies and some rain. On Friday and through the weekend the winds will pick up and temperatures could hit four to six degrees above zero in places. However, there is some possibility of more snow arriving early next week, especially in Northern Jutland.
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Last week’s winter storm was so bad in parts of Denmark that the army had to mobilize to help out. For the most part, all-terrain Piranha armoured vehicles were deployed in order to ensure ambulances and other emergency response vehicles could get where they were going. Denmark’s Defense Command says the armoured vehicles were deployed about 40 times during the snowfall. Military helicopters were also used to get first responders to life-saving situations with some pilots having to rely on radar and night vision to see where they were going.
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The freezing cold weather of the last week or so has resulted in a surge of hospitalizations across Denmark. Injuries from slipping and falling on slick icy surfaces are the most common with people, mostly seniors, suffering from broken wrists and hips.
In Odense, the University Hospital saw a 20% increase in admissions for people with weather-related injuries over the last weekend. The hospital says they saw a lot of knee, ankle, and wrist injuries primarily from cyclists taking nasty falls on slick icy bike paths.
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Stay off the ice. That is the warning being issued by municipalities around Denmark as the weather starts to warm up a little. In Faaborg Midtfyn Kommune they have actually posted signs at places like Ringe Sø and Sundsøen warning people that they are not allowed out on the ice.
Park and Road manager Carsten Nøhr spoke to DR about the dangers people are taking.
“We put up signs yesterday morning, but already at noon we got the first calls about people walking around on the ice, so putting up those signs almost had the opposite effect. It can be deadly to go out and risk falling through the ice, which can end in people drowning as a result. So to be clear, stay off the frozen lakes.”
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Municipalities across Denmark are facing criticism over their response, or lack thereof, to last week’s snowstorm. You can add the kommunes of Odense, Kerteminde, and Middelfart on the island of Fyn to a growing number that are now evaluating their efforts to clean up the roads after plenty of darts have been thrown their way by angry citizens.
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The recriminations over the response to last week’s snowstorm include Southern Sweden where the Swedish Transport Administration is conducting an assessment of its response. Despite a severe weather warning the agency did not issue a travel or driving alert to the public. The E22 motorway in Sweden’s Skåne region was in chaos last week with cars being stranded for up to 20 hours as the region was battered by strong winds and heavy snowfall.
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With flooding being a recurring story across Denmark over the last few months, ten municipalities in Metro Copenhagen are teaming up on a big flood mitigation project. Harrestrup Å (in Danish an Å is a stream or river) flows through the ten kommunes in the Danish capital. The kommunes have agreed to work together on improving nature and recreation areas along the stream, which should soak up flood waters preventing them from swamping homes and businesses. But before they get going the project must be approved by the Finance Committee and the Citizens' Representative Office.
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After enduring yet another flooding event first responders met with officials from Haderslev Kommune this week to improve flood response and mitigation efforts. Water from the Lillebælt flooded through parts of the municipality in Southern Jutland last week with no advance warning from the Danish weather service DMI. The Kommune relies on advance notice from DMI to set up sandbags and portable dykes to fend off the floodwaters, none of which happened last week.
For its part, DMI says it is working on a new flood warning system but it won’t be online until 2025.
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Finland can expect more spikes in electricity prices in the future according to electricity provider Väre. The reason why is that Finland doesn’t produce enough electricity to cover surging consumption due to things like major winter weather events.
While electricity prices skyrocketed last weekend as temperatures plunged Finland had to import electricity at full capacity from both Sweden and Estonia to cover demand.
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The damage done to the Baltic Connector gas pipeline by a Chinese ship was one of the topics discussed in a video call between Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and the President of China Xi Jinping. The two talked on Wednesday morning and according to the Finnish President’s office, there was “constructive dialogue between the countries" over the incident. China has previously promised full cooperation in the investigation of the pipeline damage.
Last October, the gas pipeline was ruptured by a ship dragging its anchor. The anchor, found on the sea floor nearby, was confirmed to belong to a Hong Kong-flagged freighter called the NewNew Polar Bear. It refused to cooperate and made its way into Russian waters before taking an arctic route back to China. It is currently in the Yellow Sea off the coast of Tianjin, China.
As for pipeline repairs, in its last update operator GasGrid Finland said the pipeline could come back online in April.
“Actual repair works can begin in the coming weeks once the detailed repair plan has been finished. Commissioning of the Balticconnector pipeline in April 2024 is technically still possible, but it requires favourable weather and sea conditions as well as success in the planning and repair work. Gasgrid Finland follows the ice conditions in the Gulf of Finland, which might affect repair works. So far conditions seem favourable, and ice can also be removed in parts in the area, if necessary.”
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Inflation in Denmark rose slightly last month. In December, inflation rose by 0.7% against on the back of energy costs according to Statistics Denmark.
“The slightly higher inflation in December compared to last month is mainly due to price changes for electricity and fuel.”
🦠COVID🦠
🌍 🦠
“COVID is still a global threat and we can’t wish it away.”
The World Health Organization’s COVID Lead is lamenting a sad statistic from 2023. Maria Van Kerkhove says the global pandemic death toll surpassed 7 million lives lost last year and she added that is very likely a big underestimate.
“Sadly at the end of 2023, we passed the 7 million mark for the number of COVID deaths reported to the WHO. 7,010,586 [deaths] to be exact. The true death toll is higher, with estimates of as much as 3 times more deaths globally. 7 million, devastating.”
She says the virus claimed on average 2,400 lives each week in the last three months of the year.
“Which is unacceptable when we can prevent them. In December, approximately 10,000 deaths were reported globally, more than half of those were from the US alone. There are more deaths occurring around the world, but they are not being reported.”
Kerkhove continues to be alarmed by the state of the pandemic around the world. She says the WHO continues to be blinded to the exact nature of the COVID situation as countries give up on testing and reporting. In her estimation, actual infection numbers could be anywhere from two to 19 times higher than what is being reported.
On top of that, the number of global hospitalizations is climbing.
“Worryingly, COVID hospitalizations and ICU admissions are up 42% and 62%, respectively although data is only available from 29 and 21 countries, out of 234 countries and territories, respectively. We expect these trends to continue following the holidays, but we have limited visibility.”
Kerkhove says the new JN.1 variant is driving coronavirus transmission around the world. She says the variant is now responsible for about half of all sequences being shared with the WHO.
“[It] is reinfecting people in all countries, with limited or no public health and social measures being used to limit exposure.”
She is urging people to do everything they can to limit their exposure including masking up, making sure indoor spaces are ventilated, and getting vaccinated. Kerkhove also continues to plead with governments to maintain and improve virus surveillance systems and to keep testing and vaccinating. Outside of vaccination most continue to turn a deaf ear to that advice.
“Be smart, stay alive, be kind, your life is precious.”
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According to the WHO, the United States continues to see by far the most COVID deaths of any nation on earth. In the last 28 days, its pandemic death toll dwarfed every other country in the world.
Also worth noting is that Sweden had the 3rd highest number of COVID fatalities over the same period with 499. The next closest country in the Nordics is Denmark with 18 lives lost.
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COVID activity across Denmark (blue line) continued to decline in the first week of December as registered in the country’s wastewater surveillance results. But the Statens Serum Institute is waving a big caution flag noting that last week’s big snowstorm led to a lack of wastewater samples being taken.
“However, the decrease in concentration from week 52 to week 1 is associated with increased uncertainty and likely overestimated.”
Infection-related hospitalizations (green line) also declined.
The SSI says coronavirus hospitalizations have declined for the 3rd week in a row while admissions due to influenza and RS virus infections were also down. In all three cases, the number is confirmed infections also declined. But again the institute cautioned results should be taken with a big grain of salt due to very low testing numbers over the holidays and during last week’s winter storm.
Weekly hospital admissions by virus type/Statens Serum Institute.
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The institute says 77% of vulnerable seniors over 65 and 86% of seniors in care have had a flu shot and a COVID booster dose.
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Denmark is turning its eye to countries outside the EU in order to address a shortage of health and social care workers.
Health Minister Sophie Løhde to,d the newspaper Berlingske that they will focus hiring efforts on countries like India and the Philippines.
“India and the Philippines have indicated that they are prepared to enter into some form of cooperation on the recruitment of health professionals. And we are now entering into a dialogue with the two countries to learn more about how a possible collaboration can be put together concretely.”
The Danish Ministry of Finance has estimated that by 2035 there will be a shortage of up to 15,000 health and senior care home staff.
Denmark, like many other countries, suffered from an exodus of healthcare workers due to being burned out during the COVID pandemic.
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In Sweden, COVID hospitalizations (651) have fallen (-195) while the number of intensive care cases (15) also dropped (-18).
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RS virus cases rising, influenza is easing, and so are COVID infections. But the Norwegian Institute of Public Health is warning hospitals to brace for another wave of patients as “the winter COVID wave is returning.”
COVID hospitalizations in Norway last week (350) are down (-246) while ICU admissions (9) also tumbled (-15). As is the case elsewhere it is seniors over the age of 75 and those who are unvaccinated who are suffering the bulk of severe infections resulting in hospitalization or death.
Norway also had another 39 coronavirus deaths in the first week of the year.
The institute says JN.1 is now dominant in the country.
“The BA.2.86 variant, which has increased rapidly, and within a relatively short time taken dominance in Norway, now accounts for around 90% of the sequenced positive test results. JN.1 is the most frequently occurring BA.2.86 variant.”
The NIPH says the influenza outbreak is “well underway” with activity flaring up over the holidays and decreasing somewhat last week. Flu-related hospitalizations also declined. Norway continues to see two flu strains, H3N2 and H1N1, spreading simultaneously.
“Further developments are uncertain. We cannot dismiss that there will be a new increase later in January and a new peak in the late winter.”
RS virus cases are rising. Although the NIPH says infection numbers are still well below what they were at this point last year. Virus-related hospital admissions also declined somewhat.
The health authority continues to urge Norwegians to get vaccinated with lackluster inoculation numbers so far. Just 64% of vulnerable seniors have had a flu shot and only 54% have had a COVID booster dose.
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The influenza season hit a holiday lag in Finland. The Finnish Institute for Health says the week before Christmas there were over 1,400 flu-related visits to a Doctor or health center. Last week, that tapered off to a little over a thousand. However, the institute cautions that people shouldn’t read too much into those numbers due to the holiday season and last week’s winter weather that would have kept people home and some health clinics closed.
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Germany’s Health Minister held a ‘crisis meeting’ with the country’s doctors this week to address a Doctor shortage, pay, and working environment.
Minister Karl Lauterbach has announced he will seek to scrap fee caps for general practitioners. Currently, doctors in Germany receive a fixed amount of money for treatments. Once the cap is reached, which happens quickly, those who continue to treat patients due so virtually for free. On top of that Lauterbach is promising to drastically reduce the bureaucracy that doctors have to wade through.
“We will ensure that far fewer people have to come to the practice, that bureaucratization is reduced and that the practice will also become more attractive as a place to work.”
One way of reducing patient load is to do prescriptions or doctor’s notes either by phone or online.
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COVID hospitalizations across Canada remained almost unchanged week to week. In the week ending January 2, there were 4,625 total beds in use by an infected patient just two fewer than the week before. General admissions (4,470) and the number of severely infected people requiring a ventilator (74) both remained unchanged. The only slight movement was among intensive care cases (155) which accounted for the two fewer patients week to week.
That is a lot of continued pressure on a healthcare system that is already straining.
The Public Health Agency of Canada says there were another 79 virus-related deaths in its latest weekly update. Canada is edging closer to crossing a grim pandemic milestone of 60,000 lives lost.
The weekly positivity percentage is 15.7%, a slight decline in the last few weeks.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
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“There could be war in Sweden.”
A speech posted to social media by Sweden’s Minister for Civil Defense Carl-Oskar Bohlin where he makes this warning has been viewed over a million times this week.
With a newly aggressive Russia being a Baltic neighbour Bohlin urged everyone from the Swedish government on down to each individual to be prepared just in case. The minister pointed to the fact Sweden’s security situation is more precarious being the only Baltic state not in NATO. In his speech, he said he is not trying to play the fear card or scare anyone but rather he is looking realistically at events going on around Sweden and it is important to understand it is everyone in the country’s collective responsibility to be prepared.
“There could be war in Sweden. I'm not trying to create fear and horror, but to open a door. A door that is often closed due to the challenges and demands of everyday life. A door that confronts us with the question: Who are you if the war comes? The world is facing a security policy development with greater risks than we have seen since the end of the Second World War. We stand with Ukraine, with our allies, with the rules-based world order and we do so in deed and meaning as one of democracy's arsenals. All of this will require more of us than before and it starts with the realization that Sweden is all of ours to defend.”
It wasn’t just the Civil Defense Minister as Sweden’s Defense Chief Micael Bydén also told Swedish media this week that everyone should be prepared should war come to Swedish soil.
“I think you should ask yourself the basic questions: If what happens in Ukraine today happens in Sweden tomorrow, am I prepared? Do I have things in place? What should I do? The more people who have thought and prepared, the stronger our society is. This means that we have to prepare as much as possible in all layers of society. Both those in power and individuals have a responsibility. Not only in the war apparatus but everywhere.”
Sweden is not protected by NATO’s Article 5, which states that an attack on any one member nation is an attack on all, which makes its security situation a little dicey. That said, it is also a member of the 10-nation Joint Expeditionary Force and has mutual defense agreements with its Nordic neighbours and the United States so it is not without allies.
Sweden, like many EU countries, is spending huge amounts of money to beef up its military (defense spending has doubled) in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is also using conscription to increase the manpower of its army and even reviewing whether conscription requirements and age limits need to be reassessed.
You can find the speech by Sweden’s Minister for Civil Defense Carl-Oskar Bohlin in video and text (in Swedish) HERE.
🇩🇰 response
In neighbouring Denmark, the country’s Defense Minister downplayed the comments from his Swedish counterparts.
Minister Troels Lund Poulsen spoke to DR:
“Denmark is in a completely different situation than Sweden. The Swedish defense chief has said that you must prepare for war. I think that is a very dramatic statement to make. I think it is important to stress that there is no direct military threat to Denmark. It's not something I say, it's something the Defense Intelligence Service says.”
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Finland will keep its land borders with Russia closed. Just before Christmas two of the border crossings were reopened and then closed again within 24 hours due to an immediate wave of illegal immigration resuming from the Russian side. The crossings were scheduled to reopen this Sunday but today (Thursday) the Finnish government extended the closure of the land border with Russia until at least February 11.
Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo hinted as much when he spoke to Finnish national broadcaster Yle earlier this week.
"Based on the information I have now, nothing has changed in Russia. I consider the threat assessment to be similar. It suggests that further action is needed.”
The Finnish Border Guard Agency says that since November more than 1,000 illegal immigrants have been directed to the Finnish border by authorities in Russia.
“It is clear that the entry has taken place under the influence of the authorities of a foreign state or other actors. The phenomenon and the threat of its expansion pose a serious threat to national security and public order in Finland.”
NATO 🇪🇺🇺🇦
NATO member nations are ready to table a flood of new military support for Ukraine. After a special NATO-Ukraine Council meeting this week, the alliance’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that new weapons packages worth billions of euros would be coming this year. Stoltenberg says that NATO will buy up to 1,000 Patriot air defense missiles for Ukraine as part of a Europe-wide effort to rebuild Ukraine’s air defenses and modernize its Air Force.
Russia has begun the New Year by intensifying air strikes on Ukraine, targeting the cities of Kharkiv and Kyiv in particular.
🇹🇷 🇷🇴 🇧🇬
Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania, all NATO member countries, have signed an agreement to work together on de-mining the Black Sea. Russia has laid mines in the waters all along Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline and some of those mines are washing up along shores and in waters in neighbouring Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. They obviously pose a significant safety risk and the three nations will work together to address the issue.
Odds & Ends
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Danes today are not genetically related to Stone Age people who lived thousands of years ago in what is now Denmark. A fascinating study by the University of Copenhagen used DNA analysis from 100 ancient skeletal remains that will rewrite our understanding of human evolution in Denmark. The study found that modern Danes are related instead to migrating hunter-gatherers who herded animals while making their way, about 4,800 years ago, from what is now Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan into the Nordics.
In fact, the study found that the population of Denmark was completely replaced by Stone Age immigration not once but twice.
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If you have a Danish passport then you are holding the world’s third most powerful passport in your hands according to the Henley Passport Index. The index measures freedom of travel and how much visa-free travel each passport receives to determine its rankings. A Danish passport holder can travel to 192 destinations around the globe without needing any type of visa for entry.
France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Singapore, and Spain, whose citizens have access to 194 destinations were all tied for first. Finland, Sweden, and South Korea are in second place with 193 countries. While Denmark shares third place with Austria, Ireland, and the Netherlands. Canada comes in 7th with 188 visa-free destinations.
Last on the list is Afghanistan with just 28 destinations.
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The Copenhagen Museum saw a record-breaking number of visitors last year. 110,000 people came through the museum’s door in 2023, which is 20,000 more than the previous record set the year before.
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Running is becoming more and more popular in Denmark. For the first time ever both this year’s Copenhagen Marathon and the annual Royal Run event are already sold out. The Copenhagen half marathon is also sold out.
The Copenhagen marathon is scheduled for May 5 with 15,000 runners expected to take part. The Royal Run, which takes place in five different cities, is set for May 20.