The Evening Report - Feb 8
Polar ice cap concerns. Finland keeps border closed.
🇩🇰Weather Warning ❄️
Brace for snow and slippery roads to start the winter vacation week in Denmark. The Danish Meteorological Institute says the snow along with freezing temperatures and strong winds will sweep up from the south bringing with it chances of blizzards and whiteout conditions. Southern Denmark, Fyn, and parts of Sjælland will initially bear the brunt of the storm on Friday before it blows into northern Jutland on Saturday.
DMI says parts of Denmark could see 12 continuous hours of snowfall. The institute says between five and 20 centimeters of snow could hit the ground before the storm is done.
🍃Environment & Energy⚡️
🌍 🇩🇰
A recent study led by the University of Lincoln, involving 29 ice sheet experts, suggests that the world's major glaciers, particularly the ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica, may be more vulnerable to extreme weather events than previously thought. These ice sheets if they melted entirely could mean a potential sea level rise of up to 65 meters. They have traditionally been viewed as undergoing a gradual, almost static process of melting in response to global warming. However, the new findings indicate that short-term extreme weather events can significantly accelerate this process, potentially leading to earlier and faster sea level rise than previously anticipated.
Ruth Mottram, climate scientist and glaciologist at the National Center for Climate Research at the Danish Meteorological Institute, is a co-author of the study.
“We have collected many different kinds of observations, models and satellite measurements, which have given an overall overview of the ice sheet both in Greenland and in Antarctica. The full picture shows that the extreme weather events we also experience elsewhere in the world, and in Denmark, due to climate change, also occur in the Arctic and Antarctic. And in these regions, just one event can affect the entire system in a different direction.”
She emphasizes that extreme weather events, such as the disappearance of the Conger ice shelf in Antarctica in 2022 due to an atmospheric river, can cause substantial and potentially irreversible damage to the polar ice sheets.
“In both cases, there is a strong melting of the ice caps, which have difficulty coming back, even if the heating is only on for a limited time. It can be decisive for the total ice mass and for the sea level in the end.”
Mottram stresses the need for further research into understanding how these events may impact the climate system, especially considering the critical role that the polar regions play in influencing global climate patterns.
So, what's the takeaway from all this? Scientists say it's time to double down on our efforts to understand climate change, especially when it comes to the polar ice caps. These icy realms play a crucial role in shaping our planet's climate, and with extreme weather events becoming more frequent, we need to be prepared because the consequences could be colossal.
You can find the study in full HERE.
🇩🇰
After recording the wettest year ever in 2023, the rain is not letting up in Denmark. As another absolute downpour hit this week, the Danish Meteorological Institute says some parts of the country had more than a month of rainfall in just 48 hours. Blåhøj Kirkeby near Billund recorded 64 millimeters of rain over two days, which is more than 20% more rainfall than the whole country sees in an average February. Just behind it were Askov and Vejen Southern Jutland, which saw 63.8 millimeters of rainfall.
Copenhagen set a new record for rainfall for a single day in February with 24.9 millimeters on Tuesday night. They have been tracking rainfall in the city since 1874. In all the Danish capital saw 35.8 millimeters of rain over 48 hours.
If you are curious, the record for the most rainfall in a single day in February in Denmark is 61.8 millimeters, which fell in Vestervig in Thy in 1881.
All the rain added to the flooding woes that have plagued Denmark since the historic tidal surge swamped the eastern coastline back in October.
In Varde, near Esbjerg, city crews had to work feverishly to keep flood waters from inundating the town’s water supply, which would have polluted the drinking water for hundreds of homes. Leif Erichsen from South West Jutland Fire Service, told DR, the situation was "critical”. Three pumps were quickly set up and pumped out 18,000 liters of water per minute during the worst of the storm on Tuesday afternoon. They managed to keep the flood waters away from the town’s water supply but it was touch and go for a while.
In Vejle, at least 57 millimeters of rain came down swamping drainage systems and then buildings and homes as parts if the city center were inundated with serious flooding. Water levels were so high that the municipality said on Facebook that it actually cut the power to parts of the city center due to the “risk of dangerous situations" if water and electricity came into contact.
Vejle Kommune also says four homes have been evacuated and an area around Mølholm Church is completely closed to all traffic due to the risk of a landslide. Emergency response crews are using a drone to assess the state of the slope, which may have been impacted by the heavy rains.
The downpour caused flood waters to surge over the only road in or out for people living on the eastern part of the Drejens peninsula near Kolding. The Kommune posted on their social media channels that emergency crews were activated and on standby should residents need to be evacuated or if there was a medical emergency.
Floodwaters inundated sewage pumps in Odsherred Kommune. That means a number of homes in the municipality cannot use their toilets. The affected areas include Bøsserup, Unnerud, Atterup, Gundestrup, Højby Lyng, and Vig Lyng.
The rainfall has also caused a surge in a stream in Holstebro with water spilling over the banks and swamping some properties.
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And it isn’t over yet. With the Danish Meteorological Institute forecasting another downpour to come on Friday at least one Kommune has issued another flood warning. Stevns Kommune on Sjælland is warning that the waters in Køge Bay could rise by over a meter, which could cause flooding. Some residents are already setting up sandbags around their homes.
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The latest round of flooding comes as at least 10 Danish municipalities are still trying to fix the damages caused by the historic tidal surge four months ago. Municipalities from the island of Bornholm to Faaborg-Midtfyn and over to Sønderborg all have flood damages from last October that have yet to the remediated.
The Danish government has set aside a 125 million kroner fund (about $24.3 million Cdn) to help municipalities cover flood damages. However, the aid money only covers a maximum of 25% of each claim. The strain on municipal budgets has in many cases resulted in flood damages remaining unaddressed four months and counting after the storm surge.
This highlights the cost of climate change as it drives more severe weather events, which are taking and will continue to take, a wrecking ball to municipal and federal budgets.
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Heavy winter rains and flooding could be the new winter normal in Denmark thanks to climate change. The Danish Meteorological Institute says as the climate warms Denmark has seen an increasing amount of rainfall over the last three decades. The institute says annual rainfall in the country has increased by 47 millimeters since 1990. DMI says most of that increase is concentrated in the winter months, especially in February. The weather agency says the three wettest February months on record have all occurred since 2020.
DMI says its data indicates that at the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, Denmark’s winter rainfall will reach 200 millimeters by the middle of the century.
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The bad news keeps coming for Danish wind energy giant Ørsted. On Wednesday, the company posted a loss of 20.2 billion Danish kroner (about $3.9 billion Cdn) in its annual report. All the red ink comes after write-downs on a large number of the company’s biggest wind farm projects. In fact, it has pulled out of the Norwegian market entirely.
The company’s market value is 162.8 billion Danish kroner (about $31.6 billion Cdn), which is down 70% from what it was in 2021.
The company will cut 800 jobs.
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On the other end of the spectrum, Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas has pulled off a remarkable fiscal turnaround. After posting a 12 billion Danish kroner loss last year (about $2.3 billion Cdn) the company reported it was back in the black by 582 million Danish kroner in this year’s annual financial statements.
🇩🇰 NASA
NASA's new climate satellite PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem) has been is on its way into space. The launch took place late Wednesday night from Cape Canaveral in Florida. PACE, equipped with Danish technology, aims to revolutionize our understanding of plankton in the world's oceans by mapping these tiny organisms from space.
Plankton, often studied under microscopes, play a crucial role in the Earth's ecosystem, impacting primary food production and the CO2 cycle. Professor John Leif Jørgensen, head of the Danish part of the PACE mission at DTU Space, emphasizes the significance of understanding plankton's behavior.
“If we can strengthen plankton in the world's oceans, we can also strengthen animal and plant life in the oceans. Conversely, if we damage plankton, we also damage all life in the oceans."
PACE will utilize advanced camera technology developed at DTU Space to map plankton distribution by measuring variations in light from the oceans, cloud cover, and nutrients from aerosols. The mission seeks to improve conditions for these vital organisms, potentially offering a solution to climate problems by enhancing their ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.
🇳🇴🇪🇺
Last weekend, Norway experienced unexpected outages in two critical energy infrastructures, causing a significant drop in gas exports to the EU. This abrupt reduction in gas supplies, affects countries like the UK and France the most. It has also raised concerns about the intersection of climate change and energy security.
The first outage occurred at the Troll gas field, Norway's largest gas asset, due to a compressor failure, resulting in a production cut of approximately 20%.
However, the situation took a more serious turn with the second outage at the Nyhamna gas processing plant, where excessive winds from Storm Ingunn caused widespread power failures, slashing the plant's capacity by 65%. With record-breaking wind speeds comparable to strong hurricanes, the storm disrupted transport and highlighted the vulnerability of energy infrastructure to extreme weather events.
With Europe turning its back on Russia, Norway has become the EU’s largest supplier of oil and gas. Due to the storm supplies to Europe were down about 10% this week.
🇫🇮
The energy transition in Finland has largely been built with a mammoth investment in wind energy. The country’s wind farms are mostly concentrated in western Finland and now an effort has been launched to diversify further into the eastern part of the country. A number of Finnish government ministries, including the Ministry of Defense, have launched a working group to “improve the conditions for the progress of wind power projects in eastern Finland.”
Environment and Climate Minister Kai Mykkänen says it is crucial to include Finnish defense forces right from the onset.
"It is clear to everyone that the needs of the defense forces must be taken into account when building wind power. An important task of the working group is to find out possible ways to get areas to use clean wind energy. Taking care of Eastern Finland's security of supply and industry's ability to invest is in all of our interest.”
The working group has until June 30 to do its work and submit a final report.
🇪🇺
The European Commission has unveiled a comprehensive plan to reach climate neutrality by 2050. It is emphasizing a 90% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. The Act, which awaits formal confirmation from both the Council of Ministers and the EU Parliament, sets forth a series of policy conditions essential for achieving the 90% reduction target, including the full implementation of the agreed 2030 framework, ensuring the competitiveness of European industries, and fostering a what it called a ‘just transition’ that leaves no one behind. With the rest of the world increasingly moving in the same direction.
The EU says by establishing a clear 2040 climate target it is not only expected to provide predictability and sustainability for the European economy and society but also fortify the continent's resilience against future crises while enhancing energy independence from fossil fuel imports. The plan emphasizes the importance of reducing climate-related economic damage, estimated at €170 billion euros over the last five years while safeguarding against potential losses that could lower the EU's GDP by about 7% by the end of the century in the absence of action.
Crucially, it says achieving the 90% emissions reduction target by 2040 necessitates a concerted effort on a comprehensive implementation of existing legislation, mobilizing private and public sector investment, and ensuring fairness, solidarity, and social policies remain central to the transition.
It also throws a lifeline to Europe’s beleaguered green energy sector. The agreement is also aimed at bolstering made in Europe production of equipment for renewable energy technologies like solar panels, wind turbines, and fuel cells. Jo Brouns, Flemish Minister of Economy, Innovation, Labour, Social Economy, and Agriculture, expressed optimism about the deal, highlighting its potential to enhance Europe's competitiveness against rivals from China and the United States. The agreement, which emphasizes concrete deadlines for permits for green projects, awaits formal confirmation from both the Council of Ministers and the EU Parliament.
🇫🇮
Finland's Ministry of Environment. Minister Kai Mykkänen has hailed the Commission's recommendations as a significant step towards a cleaner, more sustainable future.
“Finland supports a consistent EU climate policy, with which we build the EU's competitiveness and which creates certainty and predictability for business life to invest in the clean solutions of the future. In the implementation of the 2040 climate goal, the main focus should remain on emission reductions and leave enough room to maneuver for the member countries to achieve the goals.”
In particular, Minister Mykkänen praised the Commission's emphasis on emission reductions and the adoption of low-carbon solutions in all sectors.
"In the Commission's communications, many priorities of Finland's early influence can be identified. It is important for Finland to take into account the technological neutrality and cost-effectiveness of clean solutions and the development of technical carbon sequestration. It's great that nuclear power and the capture and use of bio-derived carbon dioxide are seen in the range of climate policy tools at the EU level as well.”
He also welcomed the Commission's focus on industrial carbon management, highlighting Finland's potential to contribute significantly in this area.
🇪🇺
The European Union’s goal to vastly reduce the use of harmful pesticides is no more. In the face of growing protests by farmers across Europe, the EU has dropped a proposed ban on harmful insecticides. The original goal was to cut pesticide use in half by 2030 and ban it entirely in sensitive nature areas. But on Tuesday, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said it is time to drop the proposal entirely and start from scratch on something completely new.
Thousands of farmers across Europe have taken to the streets dumping fertilizer on the doorsteps of politicians and government buildings and using tractors to bring traffic to a standstill. They are angry over, among other things, the EU’s environmental rules and regulations.
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The European Union has agreed to ever so slightly ease its strict rules governing genetically modified foods. A narrow majority of the European Parliament has agreed to negotiate with member countries on permitting the use of genetic technology to modify some plants to make them more climate resilient and more resistant to pests.
The EU has strict rules around GMO foods, including the absolute separation of GMO and organically produced crops. All foods containing more than 1% of approved genetically modified organisms must also be clearly labeled.
🇪🇺 🇩🇰⚡️
European researchers have achieved a groundbreaking feat in the realm of fusion energy, setting a new world record in a recent experiment. Collaborating with researchers from DTU, the team successfully generated 69 megajoules (MJ) of energy, equivalent to the energy required to propel an electric car for an impressive 150 kilometers.
What makes this achievement remarkable is the minuscule amount of fuel utilized in the process, a mere 0.2 milligrams. To put this into perspective, it's like dividing a single coffee bean into a thousand parts. Comparatively, if the same amount of energy were to be produced from burning coal, it would require a staggering ten million times more fuel, highlighting the efficiency of fusion energy.
While fusion energy for widespread use in power plants remains a distant goal, researchers are optimistic about the progress made.
Søren Bang Korsholm, senior researcher at DTU, expressed confidence in the viability of fusion energy.
“The experiment shows that we are on the right path towards reliable fusion energy because now we have repeatedly been able to show that the experiment works and produces more and more energy."
🦠COVID🦠
🇩🇰
COVID indicators continue to fall across Denmark last week. The latest wastewater surveillance testing from the Statens Serum Institute shows virus activity (blue line) and infection-related hospitalizations (green line) continuing to drop.
Influenza activity has also ebbed but just slightly. There continues to be more flu-related hospital admissions than for either coronavirus or RS virus.
🇸🇪
COVID hospitalizations in Sweden (200) continue to tumble (-50) while the number of ICU cases (7) crept up (+1).
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The Swedish Public Health Agency says all the other COVID indicators also seem to show a winter infection wave in retreat. The agency says the number of confirmed cases, positivity percentage, and wastewater surveillance numbers are all falling.
In particular, it notes that confirmed infections (an unreliable statistic) dropped by 18% while infections among vulnerable seniors in care also declined also were down by 18%.
Sweden continues to struggle with reporting delays for COVID fatalities as it has for almost two years now. Its latest data is from two weeks ago with 78 more lives lost to the coronavirus. In the previous three weeks, the agency says an average of 138 people died due to the virus each week. 63% of those deaths were vulnerable seniors over the age of 80.
On the variant front, the BA.2.86 variant and its sub-variants especially JN.1 remain dominant in Sweden making up 91% of what little testing and sequencing is still being done.
🇳🇴
In Norway, the RS virus continues to move to center stage in a winter performance featuring a big cast of different respiratory infections.
RSV cases continue to rise with the Norwegian Institute of Public Health saying the positivity percentage has risen again and now sits at 13.3%. Among young children under the age of four, the positivity percentage is a whopping 50.5%. The institute says there are now more RSV-related hospitalizations than any other virus. Last week, there were 243 new admissions.
The institute says COVID hospital admissions (121) have declined (-18) while ICU numbers (2) were also down (-2). The virus claimed eight more lives last week, which is down from the 17 deaths reported the week before. The JN.1 and JN.14 variants are dominant across Norway.
The NIPH says two competing influenza strains continue to spread albeit overall flu numbers were relatively stable last week. There were 222 flu-related hospital admissions last week, which is 17 more than the week prior. Intensive care admissions (9) also edged upward (+5). The institute continues to warn that another influenza wave could still arrive before the winter is over.
In a post-pandemic trend, Norway is seeing an increase in streptococcal infections (iGAS). The NIPH says it is seeing more new cases, especially among seniors over 70 than compared to any year prior to the COVID pandemic. There was also an increase in iGAS infections among children under 10.
🇫🇮
A recent study by the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (Etla) has unveiled a concerning trend regarding Finnish COVID subsidies. According to Etla's findings, the majority of firms that received subsidies would likely have remained financially afloat even without the assistance, raising questions about the effectiveness and targeting of the relief measures. Conversely, COVID aid to businesses that were struggling prior to the pandemic more often than not failed to help them remain solvent.
Chief researcher Olli Ropponen expressed worry over the skewed distribution of subsidies, noting that they often favored companies with lower productivity levels, potentially hindering future economic growth by perpetuating resources within less productive sectors. As the government conducts a comprehensive evaluation of its COVID subsidy program, the study underscores the importance of ensuring that relief measures are directed toward businesses most in need.
🇨🇦
The number of COVID hospitalizations across Canada has slightly decreased. In the week ending January 30, there were a total number of 3,663 hospital beds in use by an infected patient, 17 fewer than the week before. There were nine fewer COVID-related general admissions with 3,491 infection cases. The number of people needing intensive care declined by eight to 172. While the number of severely infected people requiring a ventilator remained unchanged at 73 for a third consecutive week.
Overall, COVID continues to exert a lot of pressure on Canada’s already extremely fragile healthcare system.
In the Public Health Agency of Canada’s latest weekly update, it reports that the virus claimed another 80 Canadian lives pushing the total pandemic death toll to 58,070 lives lost.
The seven-day positivity percentage is 10.2%.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇩🇰 🇸🇪 🇩🇪
Following the announcement that the Swedish investigation into the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines has been ended, we will soon get an update on the Danish investigation. Copenhagen police say they will have something to say about the pipeline investigation imminently.
While we wait for that, the Swedish Public Prosecutor’s decision that Sweden has no jurisdiction in the investigation has caught one expert by surprise.
Kenneth Øhlenschlæger Buhl is a researcher at the Danish Defense Academy and he spoke to DR.
“Not even the Russians have contested that Sweden and Denmark have jurisdiction. I am very surprised by that announcement. But they may have had other reasons for it.”
Buhl suspects the Swedish investigation simply hit a wall.
“My immediate explanation is that you don't have enough evidence and the investigation is dead in the water. It is not surprising. There has been no smoking gun from the start, with what we are aware of anyways.”
With the explosions taking place in international waters but within the Swedish and Danish exclusive economic zones, he says both Denmark and Sweden have special jurisdiction.
The Swedish Public Prosecutors Office said in announcing the end of its investigation that it has handed over evidence it collected to German investigators.
🇭🇺/ 🇸🇪
Sweden’s hopes of joining NATO remain on pause. The Hungarian Parliament held a special sitting on the issue of ratifying Sweden’s NATO application on Monday as requested by the opposition. However, with no less than 15 representatives from NATO member nations in the gallery, not a single member of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s governing Fidesz party showed up. Without a quorum, the vote could not be held.
Hungary remains the only NATO member nation that has yet to rectify Sweden’s ascension protocols. The Hungarian parliament is scheduled to resume sitting at the end of the month.
🇺🇸 🇸🇪/ 🇭🇺
The United States is fed up with Hungary. Swedish national broadcaster SVT is reporting that the U.S. has thrown away the carrot and is now employing the stick as it demands that Hungary stop playing games and ratify Sweden’s NATO application. Several U.S. senators have gone on the record in the last week that Hungary is at serious risk of damaging its relations with the United States if it doesn’t stop delaying the ratification vote that will admit Sweden into the military alliance.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Finland is keeping its land borders with Russia closed. The Finnish government has again extended the closure of the entire land border with Russia until at least April 14.
Minister of the Interior Mari Rantanen:
“We have seen no signs that Russia is changing its behavior. On the contrary, the information we have received confirms our assessment that Russia is continuing its hybrid operation. We have reason to believe that this situation will continue for some time.”
As tensions simmer along the Finnish-Russian border, concerns mount over the fate of hundreds, if not thousands, of migrants waiting on the Russian side for a chance to cross into Finland. Marko Saareks, deputy head of the Finnish Border Guard, revealed on Yle's breakfast TV show that the situation remains unresolved.
According to data provided by the Finnish Immigration Service Migri, over 1,200 migrants from 29 different countries have sought asylum in Finland via the Russian border since August. The majority arrived without proper documentation, raising concerns about the nature of their journey and potential motives. Suvi Asikainen, head of Migri's Asylum Unit, revealed that 186 asylum seekers have since gone missing, including significant numbers of Syrian, Indian, and Moroccan nationals. Asikainen suggests that Finland may have been used as a transit country.
With tensions between Finland and Russia heightening and the migrant crisis showing no signs of abating, authorities face a daunting challenge in addressing the situation while upholding humanitarian principles and national security interests.
🇫🇮 NATO
Finland is contributing a Katanpää-class naval ship with a crew of 40 to NATO’s mine countermeasures division. The ship will engage in a two-month tour with NATO forces in the Baltic Sea.
Finnish forces will also dispatch eight fighter jets and a contingent of 100 pilots and support staff for NATO’s air patrols in Romania, Bulgaria, and over the Black Sea. It will also be a two-month deployment.
Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen:
"Joint defense peacetime tasks are an important part of NATO's basic idea, according to which all allies are preparing to support each other in the implementation of deterrence and defense throughout the entire alliance. Finland also bears its responsibilities without compromising the performance of the national defense.”
🇳🇱 🇺🇦
The Netherlands is increasing its donation of F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine. Another six of the warplanes will be added to the 18 already being prepared for delivery to Ukraine. All 24 jets will be sent to an F-16 training center in Romania where Ukrainian pilots will be trained on the more modern warplane.
The Netherlands is decommissioning the F-16 fleet that once made up the core of its Air Force. The country is replacing them with new state-of-the-art F-35 fighter jets.
🇪🇺🇺🇦
According to EuroStat as of the end of 2023, European countries have offered temporary protections to over four million Ukrainians who have fled the war. Germany has the most Ukrainians with 1.2 million followed by Poland (954,795) and the Czech Republic (373,035).
🇨🇦 🇺🇦
As the ammunition crisis in Ukraine becomes dire the country is looking to its allies for literally anything they can use in the battle with Russia. Ukrainian officials are asking Canada to donate more than 83,000 old CRV7 rockets that are in a military base in Saskatchewan waiting to be disposed of. According to Global News the rockets are decades old and not all of them even have warheads anymore. Canadian officials say they are looking into the request.
Odds & Ends
🇩🇰
In a remarkable discovery, scientists have unearthed a trail of footprints etched into the sands of time, leading us back some 90,000 years into the past. Nestled on an ancient beach in northern Morocco, these prints offer a fleeting glimpse into the lives of our earliest ancestors. While such footprint finds are exceedingly rare, a team of archaeologists stumbled upon this treasure trove of history in the city of Larache, revealing 85 footprints that have defied the corrosive forces of time.
As researchers carefully examined these impressions, they pieced together a fascinating narrative of human existence. From the strides of two adults, one estimated to stand between 176 and 189 centimeters tall, to the delicate imprints of children frolicking along the shoreline, each step tells a story of life in a bygone era.
Professor Felix Riede from Aarhus University marvels at the insights these footprints offer, not just into physical attributes but also the dynamic composition of the ancient group. Reide says it provides another piece of the puzzle in human evolution.
“I think it is really interesting that with this particular fossil find we can probably see the composition of gender and age. It opens up opportunities to tell about the individual's physical structure, but also something about the composition of this small group. It is fascinating that one can say with great probability that it is an adult man, a woman and three children who were out picking things up on the beach.”
Scientists dated the soil around the footprints to estimate they come from the Pleistocene epoch, which saw the ice age and animals like mastodons and wooly mammoths.
🇪🇺/ 🇭🇺
In a move that further escalates tensions between Hungary and the European Union, the EU Commission has taken aim at Hungary's recent legislation on "protection of national sovereignty," deeming it in violation of EU rules. The Commission's stance was made clear through a formal notice sent to Hungary, asserting that the law, enacted in December, runs afoul of EU legislation. At the heart of the dispute is Hungary's prohibition on foreign financing of election campaigns, a measure that the EU Commission argues undermines democratic principles and the voting rights of EU citizens.