The Evening Report - Feb 29
Denmark’s drinking water at risk. Sweden’s NATO entry delayed.
🍃Environment & Energy⚡️
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European Union politicians have voted in favour of a new nature restoration plan being sold as a way to strengthen nature and biodiversity around Europe by restoring nature areas that are currently in rough shape. The plan has been a flashpoint between politicians on the left and right in the EU parliament. Right-wingers, especially those on the far right, claim it poses a threat to farmers while left-wingers say a plan is needed to address nature restoration across Europe. The plan passed by a vote of 329 for and 275 against with 24 MEPs abstaining.
Before it can be enacted the plan still needs final approvals from the governments of the different EU member states.
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Danish Regions are sounding the alarm as over half of the drinking water boreholes have been found to be contaminated, which poses a clear threat to the quality of drinking water across Denmark. The boreholes are contaminated with pesticides and other toxins, in many cases exceeding acceptable limits.
Danish Regions Deputy Chairman Mads Duedahl:
“We have reached a point where something must be done right now if there is to be clean groundwater and drinking water for the next generations and for ourselves.”
Duedahl says there are simply too many overlapping jurisdictions and agencies.
“The important thing is that something happens now. Today, responsibility for groundwater is shared between the state, the regions and the municipalities. Therefore, no one has an overall responsibility.”
The Region says the contamination issue has reached a critical point, prompting municipal waterworks to resort to purification processes and, in some instances, the closure of contaminated boreholes. The situation is exacerbated by the overexploitation of groundwater resources in about a fifth of Denmark, where water consumption, especially for industrial uses, surpasses replenishment rates.
Another glaring issue highlighted by Danish Regions is the absence of a comprehensive overview of groundwater resources and usage patterns. This lack of clarity impedes effective prioritization and investment in safeguarding water quality.
To address these challenges, the Danish Regions propose taking immediate steps, including assigning regions the responsibility of mapping threats to groundwater and formulating sustainable regional plans for groundwater management in collaboration with municipalities and water suppliers.
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With the end of winter a little less than a month away, Denmark has so far recorded the second wettest winter months since 1874. The Danish Meteorological Institute says that over 280 millimeters of rain have fallen so far this winter, or to look at it another way 50% more winter rainfall than on average. The agency notes that seven of the ten wettest winters on record have all been recorded in the last 25 years.
The wettest winter on record was in 2006/2007 when a whopping 319 millimeters of rainfall came down.
DMI continues to warn that this is probably the new normal in Denmark as climate change makes things increasingly warmer. The amount of overall annual rainfall has increased by 47 millimeters in the last three decades. The lion’s share of the increased rain has fallen in the winter months. The weather institute forecasts that if emissions continue at the present rate Denmark will see almost 200 millimeters of rain every winter by the middle of the century.
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In the Danish city of Kolding flooding has been so common this winter the municipality has stopped taking down safety barricades and sandbag barriers around the city. They were all dismantled and put away after October’s historic storm surge only for emergency responders to scramble to reinstall them over and over again so now they will stay right where they are until the winter is over.
The Kommune is also engaging in a rigorous self-examination of its flood preparedness after it was found clearly lacking this winter. During October’s storm surge, a water tube flood barrier ruptured and pumps set up to help were soon inundated and knocked offline. Another point of contention was inexperienced staff and too many cooks in the kitchen with people from different agencies running around butting heads with each other.
The city has already appointed an emergency response coordinator and has begun building a flood mitigation strategy around the areas of the city most at risk.
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Last week’s Storm Rolf was one of the most violent to ever hit Denmark and offered another example of climate change-induced severe weather events. The Storm developed incredibly fast with hurricane-force winds ripping across parts of Denmark. The Danish Meteorological Institute says the storm developed into an atmospheric bomb incredibly swiftly. The institute says it was one of the most violent storms to slam into Denmark since 2015 and from start to finish lasted just seven hours.
The institute also notes that the storm did something very remarkable by increasing to gale-force winds in just 20 minutes.
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Water reservoirs in central and southern Sweden are full to brimming according to the Geological Survey of Sweden. It says groundwater levels are also the highest they have been in modern times as the country endures its own wet winter. While there is the potential for some good news as far as possibly warding off a summer drought, like the one that hit Southern Sweden last summer, at the moment it also means a heightened risk of flooding.
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While the Nordics soak, southern Europe bakes. Tenerife, the largest of the Spanish Canary Islands, could declare a full-blown water emergency by Friday due to a crippling drought and shrinking water reservoirs. On February 1, water reservoirs were at just 34.6% as the island chain experienced one of the driest winters in recent memory.
Annual rainfall in Tenerife has declined by 15 to 40% in recent years while the scorching heat increases evaporation rates. In January, Tenerife recorded average monthly temperatures of 20.9 degrees Celsius, the hottest January in 60 years. Climate change is ensuring that island residents will have to deal with water shortages for years to come.
The issue is also front and center in mainland Spain where Barcelona declared a drought emergency on February 1. In the Andalusia region, water use will be restricted for some cities, including Seville and Córdoba, until the region sees at least 30 consecutive days of rain.
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Denmark is on a shaky and uncertain path towards meeting its crucial climate targets. That is the assessment from the Danish Climate Council, which says it is unclear how Denmark can meet its climate targets of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 70% by 2030.
Climate Council Chair Peter Møllgaard:
“It is our overall assessment that there is not enough climate policy that is secure enough for us to believe that we will reach the goal in 2030.”
The Climate Council is an independent body that issues annual reports assessing if Denmark is on track, or not, to meet its climate goals. This is the fourth year in a row the annual assessment has found that Denmark is falling well short of its climate targets.
The report cites several areas of concern that are crucial for Denmark to meet its emissions reduction targets. Of those the one it determined to be key for Denmark to meet its climate goals is the contentious carbon tax on agricultural emissions. A report with options on how to configure such a tax was tabled last week. According to the Danish government, an agricultural carbon tax can’t impact the competitiveness of the sector, but the council believes this isn’t possible. Therefore it concludes there is a high risk the tax won’t result in the necessary reductions.
“The biggest uncertainty we have at the moment is about agriculture's climate target and whether we can reach it.”
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Danish farmers could soon join their colleagues across Europe with tractor protests. That is the warning from the farmer’s associations in Jutland after last week’s report tabled options on how the Danish government could configure a possible tax on agricultural CO2 emissions. The farmers are considering using tractors to blockade motorways to Copenhagen if the Danish government decides to implement an agricultural CO2 tax.
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Black is out, green is in. Danish Crown is transitioning the plastic trays used for meat in some Danish grocery stores from black to green. The reason why is that in the recycling processing the sorting machines do not recognize the black ones as being plastic and are diverting them into general waste to be incinerated. The company sends out roughly 55 million black plastic trays to grocery retailers, which equals about 1,000 tonnes of plastic waste.
The new green plastic trays are also more, well green, as 90% of the trays are made with recycled plastic materials. That will also translate to producing a higher amount of reusable material in the recycling process.
The change will likely result in some confusion. At the moment, green meat trays are used exclusively for organic meats.
For the Coop supermarkets like Kvickly or SuperBrugsen the black plastic meat packaging will transition to clear plastic trays.
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Farmers across the EU continue to vent their rage at politicians, the costs of green initiatives, and in the case of Poland the influx of cheaper Ukrainian goods. Thousands of Polish farmers have taken to the streets and at border crossings into Ukraine this week. Some of those protests, especially along the border, have been tense and there are some reports that Poland and Ukraine are discussing some kind of closure of their shared border.
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Penalties for environmental crimes are getting tougher in Europe. The EU Parliament has adopted a new law increasing prison sentences by up to ten years. The vote was an overwhelming 499 for and 100 opposed. Environmental criminals may also be forced to cover the costs of restoring the nature they have damaged or destroyed. Companies can also face fines of up to €40 million.
🌍
Global electric vehicle sales continued to increase last year. EVs accounted for a full 20% of all vehicle sales right around the world in the last quarter of 2023.
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The Finnish Energy Authority announced on Thursday that it found the Swedish energy company Vattenfall AB and its Finnish subsidiary had manipulated the wholesale electricity market in 2022. However, it said it decided against leveling a financial penalty against the company because it didn’t find any evidence the manipulation was done with intent or that the company acted negligently. Vattenfall itself notified the Finnish Energy Authority about the potential manipulation saying it was done in error unintentionally.
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After 16 months of steadily growing unemployment numbers, the trend came to an end in January, but just barely. Statistics Denmark says there were 86,200 unemployed people across the country in January, a mere 400 fewer job seekers month to month.
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Finland’s economy slipped into a recession in the final quarter of 2023. Statistics Finland said the GDP slid down by 0.7% in the 4th quarter, year over year it contracted by 1%.
OP Group Senior Market Economist Jari Hännikäinen posted on social media that economic development in Finland is looking pretty grim. He noted that since 2007 Finland’s economy has grown by 6% while neighbouring Sweden’s has surged by more than 30%.
🦠Outbreaks🦠
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COVID activity (blue line) across Denmark decreased last week according to wastewater surveillance results. The Statens Serum Institute classifies virus activity as being “at a low level.” However, it says there is “increased uncertainty” about calculating the trend over the past three weeks and therefore is not publishing it this week.
The respiratory infection picture in Denmark continues to improve. COVID indicators continue to trend downward as do influenza and RS virus numbers. That said, influenza continued to see the highest number of hospital admissions last week.
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The Statens Serum Institute says the number of measles infections has grown to five. The two newest cases, a child and an adult, had their measles infections confirmed in Region Midtjylland.
SSI Section Leader Peter Andersen says the measles concern needs to be taken seriously.
“It is a highly contagious virus that we thought had been eliminated in Denmark.”
The agency is still urging doctors to keep an eye out for possible measles infections. It also wants people who aren’t vaccinated against measles to go get their free inoculation.
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In Sweden COVID hospitalizations (106) continue to fall (-49) while just a single virus-infected patient remains in ICU (-1).
🇳🇴
After a storm of respiratory virus activity across Norway over the winter the situation is much improved and getting better every day. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health says influenza activity has stabilized, RS virus numbers are dropping, and there is now very little COVID in circulation.
There were 264 influenza-related hospital admissions last week, one more than the week prior.
While the RS virus wave recedes it still poses a risk for infants under four where positivity rates are 39.3%. Hospitalizations (172) are falling (-35).
The NIPH says the winter coronavirus wave is over. There were 59 new hospital admissions last week, five fewer than the week before. There were 12 more COVID deaths last week, an increase from the six lives lost the week before.
“As of now, there are no signs of new waves of infection in the near future.”
Norway is still seeing an unusually high number of Strep infections (iGAS) something that occurred last winter as well. Seniors over 70 and children under 10 seem to be most vulnerable.
🇦🇶
Not even Antarctica is safe from the deadly H5N1 bird flu. Two dead crows near Primavera base, which is on the tip of the continent closest to Argentina, have tested positive for H5N1. The first confirmed bird flu cases in Antarctica ever. Argentinian researchers are worried that the virus will sweep through penguin colonies that have so far been spared the disease due to the continent being so isolated.
Last month, bird flu was detected among penguins in the nearby Falkland Islands. 200 penguin chicks died.
🇨🇦
COVID hospitalizations continue to ease across Canada. In the weekend ending February 27, the total number of hospital beds in use by an infected patient dipped by 193 to 2,365 occupied beds. Of those, the entirety of the declines were in general admissions where there were 2,249 infected patients, 193 fewer than the week before. The number in intensive care (116) and severely infected people requiring a ventilator (73) were both unchanged week to week.
Another 58 lives were lost to the coronavirus last week.
The seven-day positivity percentage was 8.1%.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇭🇺/ 🇸🇪
Hungary has found a way to steal Sweden’s thunder, or at least delay it by a few weeks. Swedish news outlet Dagens Nyheter is reporting that Sweden’s official welcome into NATO, initially set for this Friday, has been delayed. The reason why is that Hungary has yet to officially sign off on Monday’s ratification vote.
Procedurally, once the vote was passed the President of Hungary had to sign the ascension protocols to make it official. However, Hungary’s President and Justice Minister both resigned recently due to a scandal involving a secret pardon given to a man convicted of sheltering a pedophile. At the moment the Speaker of the Hungarian Parliament László Kövér is also serving as interim President. Kövér could sign the documents but he has also been very vocally opposed to Sweden’s admission into NATO.
It could be a few weeks before a new Hungarian President is sworn in and the documents signed. Until then Sweden is stuck standing on the NATO doorstep but unable to cross the threshold.
🇸🇪/ 🇷🇺
As Sweden prepares for its official welcome into NATO the Swedish Intelligence Service (SÃPO) is monitoring the reaction from Russia and how it might respond. Head of Counter-Espionage Daniel Stenling told Radio Sweden the agency has plans in place to counter the response of foreign powers if Sweden’s entry into NATO leads to a new phase in espionage from Russia. He added that SÃPO believes Russian agents were at work within Sweden trying to disrupt the NATO membership process.
🇺🇦
Ukraine’s Minister of Defense says that only half of the military aid promised by its Western allies arrives on time.
As Ukraine suffers setbacks along its frontline thanks to severe ammunition shortfalls, Minister Rustem Umerov says delays have a terrible cost.
“At the moment, commitment is not the same as delivery. 50% of what is promised is not delivered on time, he points out. He added that everything that does not arrive on time costs Ukrainian lives and Ukrainian territory.”
🇪🇺🇩🇰🇳🇱🇺🇦
More ammunition and air defense systems need to flow to Ukraine and it needs to flow much faster. That was the consensus when 20 European leaders met in Paris earlier this week to discuss efforts to help Ukraine in its battle against Russia.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was one of the attendees. She spoke to DR:
“We need to move forward. There is agreement on a very concrete follow-up with more ammunition and more air defense for Ukraine. This is what the country needs most.”
Frederiksen said that bolstering ammunition production within Ukraine as well as getting the country’s cyber security up to par were also issues on the agenda.
“These are things that we, from the Danish side, are fully engaged in. But here and now the most important thing is that this large group of countries agree to buy more ammunition and donate more ammunition to Ukraine.”
After the meeting, the Dutch government also announced it would contribute €100 million to a Czech Republic initiative to get more ammunition to Ukraine.
🇧🇪 🇺🇦
Belgium is also joining the Czech Republic’s initiative to get ammunition flowing much faster to Ukraine. On Wednesday, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo announced that Belgium will also contribute €200 million to the Czech ammunition plan.
“We can never match the sacrifice Ukraine is making every day. But we can give President Zelenskyy what he requested, more ammunition to fend off the Russian aggressor. More ammunition is coming in the next few weeks.”
🇫🇷🇩🇪🇸🇪🇺🇦
While solving Ukraine’s ammunition woes was supposed to be the central issue of the Paris meeting, comments by French President Emmanuel afterward created a bit of a firestorm. Macron told reporters a new long-range missile coalition was being set up and at the same time, he said it may be necessary at some point to send Western troops into Ukraine. He said that while the leaders were divided on the issue the prospect of deploying troops to Ukraine was discussed openly.
“Nothing should be ruled out. We will do anything we can to prevent Russia from winning this war.”
The reaction came swiftly from other leaders.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz:
“What was agreed among ourselves and with each other from the very beginning also applies to the future, namely that there will be no ground troops, no soldiers on Ukrainian soil sent there by European countries or NATO states.”
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson:
“France's way is not the Swedish way. If a country wants to send troops elsewhere in the world, it does not affect NATO.”
Denmark, Finland, the United States, and others also quickly ruled out sending troops from their respective countries to Ukraine.
Macron seemed taken aback by some of the comments especially those from the German Chancellor as he was quick to remind reporters that Germany, a huge supplier of weapons to Ukraine now, was a very reluctant participant early in the war.
“The people that said ‘never ever’ today were the same ones who said never ever planes, never ever long-range missiles, never ever trucks. They said all that two years ago. We have to be humble and realize that we [have] always been six to eight months late.”
A resurgent Russia, already with a massive manpower advantage and a clear willingness to throw tens of thousands of lives away for even the smallest of battlefield gains, now has an ammunition advantage as well. Russian forces have advanced in several areas of the front and continue to push the advantage hard.
🇫🇮 🇺🇦
There is a growing discussion in Europe about the donation of long-range missiles to Ukraine and taking the gloves off to allow them to hit targets within Russia.
Some Western countries have told Ukraine they can’t engage targets inside Russia with donated weapons. However that doesn’t appear to be the case for weapons donated by Finland. The chair of the Parliamentary Defence Committee Jukka Kopra told Yle that Finland has not set such limits.
“According to my information, Finland has not set such restrictions, and Ukraine has the right to use these weapons against military targets. If necessary, Ukraine should also strike military targets on the Russian side. It is a completely legitimate defensive battle that Ukraine is waging. The UN Charter allows military targets to be attacked across land borders.”
Finland is among a group of European countries that is lobbying for the donation of long-range missiles to Ukraine.
It is also worth noting that Finland does not provide any information on what weapons it has donated to Ukraine.
🇪🇪 🇺🇦
It seems to be a sentiment shared across the Baltic where the incoming Commander of the Estonian Defense Forces told the Finnish national broadcaster that Ukraine needs to be able to fight without its hands being tied. Colonel Andrus Merilo said that Western countries are making a mistake by placing limits on what Ukraine can do with donated weapons.
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Moldova may be the next flashpoint between the West and Russia. The breakaway Transnistria region within the country has officially asked Vladimir Putin for “protection” from what pro-Russian rebels claim is an economic war being waged on them by the Moldovan government.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the region was also a topic of discussion at this week’s Ukraine meeting in Paris.
“It could be the next point of attack for Russia.”
The enclave has been controlled by pro-Russian forces since the Soviet Union splintered apart.
Moldova is working to join the European Union.
🇸🇪 🇩🇰 🇱🇻
As Sweden prepares to become a full NATO member nation, plans are already in motion for a joint effort with Denmark to man a NATO military base in Latvia. The base will be staffed with a battalion of about 600 soldiers with Sweden and Denmark taking turns operating a four to six-month rotation of troops.
A Swedish regiment from Region Skåne (Southern Sweden) will likely be the first to be deployed to Latvia.
The camp was previously staffed by Danish battalions but those soldiers were recalled to Denmark last spring after a year in Latvia due to the need for an operational break.
The two countries would also share the costs to run the base.
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
Russian hackers have been busy targeting Danish businesses and municipalities for the last week or so. Several municipalities and Copenhagen Airport have been the victim of denial of service (DDoS) cyber attacks. Last weekend, the cyber attack knocked the airport’s website offline and created other problems. The airport suffered another cyber attack earlier this week.
A DDoS attack is when hackers target a website and bombard it with an overwhelming number of requests that it overloads and shuts down.
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Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny will be buried in Moscow today and Denmark’s Ambassador to Russia Jakob Henningsen plans to attend the funeral.
He spoke to Ritzau:
“I expect a large security presence, and do not know if we will be allowed to enter, or if the authorities will block our and other Russians' participation. I want to attend the funeral because Navalny is a courageous role model for the forces that want a free and democratic Russian society.”
🇳🇴/ 🇷🇺
Russia is continuing to try and find ways to mess with its Nordic neighbours. In the northernmost part of Norway, which borders Russia, instances of GPS signal interference from Russia are rising sharply. Norway’s National Communications Authority (Nkom) says Norwegian pilots are seeing more and more cases of GPS jamming. In 2019, there were six days of jamming recorded. In 2021, it rose to 18 days. Up until February 22nd so far just this year there have already been 44 instances reported.
Nkom says it has communicated with its sister organization in Lithuania, which is dealing with similar GPS interference from Russia. It has also taken the matter up with Russian authorities.
A huge military exercise called Nordic Response will be held in the same area of Norway in the first half of March. Over 20,000 soldiers, naval assets, and aircraft from 13 allied nations will take part. The participating nations are Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the USA.
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Danish universities are screening certain positions to weed out potential spies. The Danish Intelligence Agency (PET) has made universities aware that there is a heightened risk of foreign agencies running intelligence-gathering operations on Danish campuses. So now candidates in certain research positions are carefully screened not only to see if they are spies but also if they pose a risk of being recruitment targets by foreign powers later.
Danish Universities Vice Dean Jesper Langergaard says special attention is paid to candidates from Russia, China, and Iran.
“Background checks are being rolled out at all Danish universities in close cooperation with the ministry and PET.”
Last year, Aarhus University carried out background checks on less than 200 researchers.
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Some of the parties in the Danish parliament are pressuring the government to have clear contingency plans for the public in the event of a national crisis or war. Neighbouring Sweden has already done something similar mailing a brochure out to every household detailing what to do in a national emergency and what emergency and food supplies should be stocked up just in case. Finland also has similar contingency plans in place.
Alex Ahrendtsen with the Danish People's Party:
“The starting point is safety brochures based on the Swedish one. Send it out to the Danes and say: "This is what we expect from you". And at the same time, you make a contingency plan so that people know where to go if something were to happen.”
It doesn’t appear Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen shares the same sense of urgency. The minister says to have emergency supplies and extra food at home is just common sense. He also doesn’t necessarily see this as the responsibility of the Ministry of Defense.
“Basically this is a message that should be coming from the Emergency Management Agency. It should not be a political majority in Christiansborg that dictates how the security situation should be interpreted. But having said that, we need to do more and do it faster to strengthen Danish defenses. And then very naturally in the wake of that, a discussion can take place about whether something more is needed in relation to Danish national emergency preparedness.”
🇬🇧 🇩🇰 🇺🇦
Since the fall of 2022 over 30,000 Ukrainian recruits have undergone intensive five-week basic military training programs in the UK. A number of countries including Canada, Australia, all four Nordic countries, and others are contributing to the international training effort. Of the soldiers that have gone through the program so far about 2,000 have been trained specifically by the 70 or so instructors provided by the Danish Armed Forces.
The soldiers are offered training in the basics like weapons use, target practice, combat drills, and the laws of war. Other more intensive programs are also offered. Each batch of recruits undergoes five weeks of training.