The Evening Report - Feb 24
War in Ukraine rattles the Baltic states. While the pandemic continues
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Non-COVID news off the top. Russia has invaded Ukraine, initiating a war in Europe. This is a horrific and deeply concerning event and one that is already impacting everyone in Europe. I think it is important to stay on top of developments as they pertain to Denmark and the Nordics so you can stay informed.
Danish Statsminister Mette Frederiksen held a press conference Thursday to address the invasion of Ukraine.
“Today is a dark day for world peace. Russia's military attack on Ukraine is an attack on the peace and stability we have known since the Cold War. Russia's actions are completely unacceptable. The West stands together in clear condemnation. And with clear joint action. This must and will have consequences for Russia. Millions of people in Ukraine today have woken up to war. My thoughts are with them and with all Ukrainians here in Denmark.”
Frederiksen has headed to Brussels to join other EU leaders in hammering out sanctions and other reprisals against Russia. Among them will be strengthening the preparedness of NATO. She also said that increased preparedness also applies to Denmark.
“I would like to state that there is no concrete threat to Denmark. But it is clear that we have entered a more uncertain time. War in Europe comes with a price. And there will be challenges that we cannot anticipate or prepare for. We must prepare for a protracted international crisis. We do that in Denmark. We do that in the EU. And we do that in NATO.”
Frederiksen says Denmark will also have to step up with humanitarian aid for Ukraine and may have to be ready to take Ukrainian refugees, thousands of which are already streaming to the borders of safer countries like Poland.
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Denmark’s Minister of Defense Morten Bødskov says the government will increase its contribution to NATO forces on land, sea, and air. This will include sending 200 Danish troops to Estonia to shore up NATO defenses there. Denmark will also send F-16 fighter jets to Poland to help patrol its airspace. Danish fighter jets have already been moved to the Baltic States to help patrol airspace there. Danish armed forces have also been put on a higher alert.
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Sweden and Finland have both moved their militaries to a higher state of readiness. Sweden has been working actively for weeks now to shore up its defenses and prepare, should Russia turn its attention to the Baltics. For several weeks now, Swedish troops have been busy fortifying the island of Gotland. The reason why is that whenever NATO holds war-games, every country playing Russia has seized the island as a first step in trying to gain strategic control of the Baltic Sea.
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In Europe, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia have officially asked NATO to hold urgent consultations under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty. Article 4, allows member nations to table issues of concern related to the security of a member country.
This is the 7th time in NATO’s history Article 4 has been invoked by a member nation(s).
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The latest weekly trends report from the Staten Serum Institut found infections fell by 24% week to week as cases per 100,000 residents dropped to 4,081 last week. But case numbers are no longer providing a very accurate pandemic measurement. Checking other indicators, the positivity percentage in Denmark inched up slightly, going from 39.8% in week 6 to 40.1% last week. This while PCR testing decreased by 25%. At the regional level, the positivity percentage tread water across the five regions, with Region Midtjylland having the highest rate at 44.3%.
Another better barometer of the COVID situation is wastewater surveillance with “flattening” levels at the national level. Regionally, levels were either stable or decreasing except for Region Hovedstaden (Metro Copenhagen) where a “small increase” was seen.
Most concerning, infection rates among nursing home residents continue to increase, going from 2,055 COVID cases to 2,302 from one week to the next. And pandemic deaths are rising as well, with 99 nursing home residents dying last week, an increase from the 88 the week before.
The COVID incidence rate per 100,000 residents declined in all five Danish health regions from one week to the next, with the rate being highest in North Jutland at 5,717. The SSI says the infection rate was stable last week, but it cautions that because it was a holiday vacation week, it makes the picture a little uncertain. Looking at the incidence rate by age group, 25 to 29 year olds led the way (4,715), and 30 to 39 year olds (4,704), rates also increased in age groups over 60, and dropped among all others. Thankfully, infection rates among children are also declining.
Last week there were 2,849 hospitalizations a week-to-week increase of 3%. Admissions were highest among those 60 years old and older, with admission numbers in that age group up by 30% last week.
The SSI is again differentiating between people hospitalized for COVID and those admitted for another reason, but with an infection, with admissions for COVID declining by half. This compares to a 52% drop the previous week. Looking at intensive care admissions last week, 72% were because of a coronavirus infection, up from 68% the week before.
The number of covid-19-related deaths was stable from week 6 to week 7. The SSI says excess mortality was at a normal level up until week 5 but then began to rise among those 85 years old and older.
The Staten Serum Institut has been reviewing death certificates and scouring the death registry to try and determine the true number of infection fatalities. It says the inventory covering a period from week 47 up until last week shows that 44% of deaths classified as being COVID fatalities were people who actually died because of other reasons. That said, it also notes 35% of fatality cases have yet to be reviewed.
On the variant front, the Omicron sub-variant continues to reign supreme, making up 96% of all sequenced positive test results last week. If you break it down to BA.2 and BA.2_H78Y then the proportion by percentage would be 69.04% and 26.55% respectively. But the SSI also advised caution saying sequencing numbers are still low.
The SSI is forecasting that infection rates will continue to fall across Denmark in the weeks ahead despite uncertainty due to the holiday week last week and declining testing numbers. However, the agency adds that COVID cases could rise among older populations and that poses a risk of increasing hospital admissions.
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In Denmark COVID hospitalizations (1,746) rose again (+25) while the number of severe infection cases in an ICU (37) crept up (+1) and of those the number on a ventilator (15) inched up (+3) admissions to a psychiatric ward (419) continued to increase (+7).
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Denmark has recorded 25,209 COVID infections (underreported), including 1,421 reinfections, and another 39 coronavirus deaths in the last day.
Yesterday, there were 129,258 corona tests done, of which 92,391 were PCR tests equaling a positivity percentage of 27.28%.
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The number of COVID cases detected among incoming travelers in Denmark has steadily dwindled over the last six weeks, going from 1,449 cases in the second week of January to 325 last week. Travel-related infection cases last week accounted for just 0.1% of all COVID infections last week.
According to the Staten Serum Institut, the highest number of travel-related infections came from Germany (50), followed by Austria (47), then Norway (47), and Sweden (46).
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On the vaccination front, it continues to be a game of inches with just 1,471 booster doses administered yesterday. Percentages largely remain static, with 82.4% of the total population having one vaccine dose, 80.9% having two, and 61.7% having a booster shot.
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File this under ‘something to keep an eye on’ as they Staten Serum Institut noted that influenza cases have increased over the last two weeks, especially in Metro Copenhagen. However, the agency says the incidence of the seasonal flu is still at very low levels and well below what would normally be seen at this time of year. The SSI says other European countries are seeing similar activity.
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Sweden has added 19 corona deaths and another 3,067 infections (wildly underreported) since yesterday.
ICU numbers (72) have dropped (-13).
So far, 86.8% of the population 12 years old and older have one vaccine dose, 84.3% have two, and of those 18 years old and older 59.1% have a booster.
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COVID hospitalizations continue to ease in Sweden’s capital region. There were 445 coronavirus patients in hospital in Region Stockholm as of Thursday afternoon, down from Wednesday’s 465. Intensive care numbers remained static day to day at 19, unchanged in the last 48 hours. As of Thursday afternoon, there were 186 staffed empty care beds available in Stockholm, down slightly from the 198 from the day before.
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For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Newton’s 3rd law is on full display in Sweden’s Region Västmanland. The action is the lifting of all COVID recommendations and cutting the general public off from coronavirus testing. The reaction is that fewer and fewer people are bothering to get vaccinated according to the region’s vaccine coordinator.
Mikael Sars spoke to SVT saying his worst fears are being realized that the lifting of restrictions would lead to a false sense of security. Sars says the weekly number of doses given has fallen from 13,000 a week to 4,700 since Sweden returned to near normal.
He says there are about 60,000 people in the region who have had two doses and need a third but are now missing in action.
“It is very unfortunate that such a large part of the population has not yet come to take their third dose.”
He says the infection spread in the region is still high and that vaccine-induced immunity fades if people don’t get their booster dose. The other potential problem is if vaccines aren’t administered, they could hit their best before date and have to be tossed out.
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A similar picture is emerging nationally. As the Swedish Public Health Agency notes, vaccination uptake has dwindled down to less than 200,000 doses administered per week.
State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell spoke at a Thursday press conference and urged people to get their shots, as he noted there is still significant pressure on the country’s intensive care units.
“It is still the same trend, that it is the oldest who are affected. But the vaccine works, even for the very oldest. We expect that [the epidemic] will remain at the same low levels over the spring and summer.”
But, Tegnell added that Sweden cannot “lose readiness" if the virus throws another curveball at us, including should a new even more threatening variant emerge.
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In Norway, COVID hospitalizations (519) crept down (-9) while the number of severely infected people in intensive care (56) edged upward (+4) and of those the number on a ventilator (22) dipped (-2).
Norge had no new pandemic deaths while adding 10,097 more infections (underreported).
To date, 80.3% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one vaccine dose, 74.5% have two, and 53.2% have a booster shot.
The Norwegian Institute for Public Health has updated vaccination rates across different age groups.
12 to 15 year olds - 54% have one dose.
16 to 17 year olds - 83% have one dose and 42% have two.
18 years old and older - 65% have a booster shot.
45 years old and older - 81% have three vaccine doses.
65 years old and older - 89% have all three shots.
18 to 64 years old who are in high risk groups - 80% have two doses and a booster.
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Norway is still firmly in the grip of an Omicron variant-fueled infection wave. COVID hospitalizations continue to increase according to the latest weekly assessment from the Norwegian Institute for Public Health. There were 764 admissions last week, of which 399 (52%) were people admitted directly because of a coronavirus infection. This is an increase from the 313 from the week before. Hospitalizations were highest in both ends of the age spectrum, with infants on one end and seniors 85 years old and older on the other making up the highest admissions by age. Even ICU admissions are increasing, with 32 last week up from the 14 from the week before.
By vaccination status, the health agency says 26% of admissions where vaccination status was known were unvaccinated; 18% had two doses, and 53% were vaccinated and boosted. The agency notes vaccinated patients tend to be older and or have underlying health conditions putting them at higher risk.
The NIPH says in the last four weeks 45% of hospital admissions among children under the age of 18 have been due to a COVID infection. The health agency notes that in most cases hospital stays are very short and overall child hospitalizations are still “significantly lower” than what was seen in last fall’s RS virus infection wave.
COVID fatalities rose from week to week, with 42 deaths last week after 37 the week prior. The institute says the median age of those who died was 85 years old.
The NIPH pegs the COVID R0 in Norway at 1.2.
Norway saw 100,167 confirmed COVID infections last week, a decline of 28% from the week before but infections are underreported due to dropping testing numbers and the proliferation of self-testing kits. For example, the number of people in Norway who had a PCR test last week dropped 29%.
On the variant front, the Omicron sub-variant BA.2 accounted for 65% of all sequenced positive test results last week. The variant is especially prevalent in Olso. The NIPH says new study results show the Omicron sub-variant BA.2 doesn’t have any more increased immune escape and is on par with its parent strain. The institute says the highest immune protection is now being seen among people who are both vaccinated and have recovered from an infection.
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Finland registered 7,931 infections and 13 more virus deaths since yesterday’s update.
COVID hospitalizations (718) are unchanged.
To date, 79.4% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 75.2% have two, and 49.3% have a booster dose.
The Finnish Institute for Health says the vaccination effort is creeping along with the number of booster doses increasing by just 0.8% over the last week.
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Finland’s epidemic seems to be very gradually easing according to the latest weekly snapshot from the Finnish Institute for Health. The agency says the epidemiological situation is “still serious” and with restrictions easing, the responsibility will shift to people to take their own steps to limit infection spread.
The number of COVID hospitalizations declined ever so slightly from week to week, with 354 admissions last week compared to 359 the week before. As for ICU patients, there were 25 new admissions last week, a decline from the 32 of the week prior; there are currently 37 patients in intensive care. The institute says 29% of hospital admissions and 22% of those in the ICU were people hospitalized for reasons that aren’t pandemic-related.
While case counts have become more unreliable as a pandemic barometer, the Finnish health agency says COVID wastewater surveillance levels have started to decline in Espoo and Helsinki. But wastewater virus activity either increased or remained stable in other regions.
In the last two weeks, Finland has suffered 225 coronavirus deaths, a slight drop from the 232 of the previous 14 day period. Like the Danish Staten Serum Institut, health officials in Finland are now reassessing deaths classified as being due to COVID to determine if the coronavirus was actually the cause of death or not.
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Iceland will lift all remaining COVID restrictions and return to near-normal as of Friday. This will include COVID entry restrictions at its borders. This means inbound travelers will no longer be required to register prior to arrival or have to show proof of vaccination in order to enter the country. Iceland is also lifting testing and quarantine requirements for unvaccinated travelers.
Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir:
“The virus is still with us, and we know that many people will still get infected, but we believe we can live with the virus. The going will be tough for some weeks moving forward.”
People who are feeling sick should stay home and get tested. That said, Iceland has limited access to PCR testing. The country’s Prime Minister added that virus surveillance will continue to watch for any new variants.
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Germany has recorded 216,322 new infections and 243 more pandemic deaths since yesterday’s update.
It added another 1,596 COVID hospitalizations, while ICU numbers (2,398) decreased slightly (-2). As a percentage of total intensive care beds in the country, coronavirus patients are taking up 10.7%.
So far, 76.3% of the total population have one dose, 75.3% have two, and 56.6% have a booster.
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The European Medicines Agency has recommended that the use of the Moderna COVID vaccine be extended to include children aged 6 to 11 years old. Its recommendation is for pediatric doses of the vaccine of about half the dose given to adults (50 µg compared with 100 µg). The two doses are to be given a minimum of four weeks apart.
The EMA says the pediatric dose of the Moderna vaccine resulted in a COVID immune response in children similar to a regular dose in adults. No unusual side effects have been identified in children outside some of the ordinary ones anyone might experience after vaccination. Those would include pain at the injection site, swelling, headaches, nausea, fever, and muscle, and joint pain. In all cases side effects dissipate within a day or two. Europe’s pharmaceutical watchdog says it will closely monitor vaccine side effects in this case, as it does in all cases.
Now that the EMA has recommended use of the Moderna vaccine be extended to 6 to 11 year olds, the European Commission must render a final decision.
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The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has released its latest COVID risk assessment map for the EU. Once again, it is painted solidly in high-risk crimson.
WHO🦠
“We are not out of the woods yet, and this pandemic is not over.”
Those are the words of Infectious Disease Epidemiologist, and World Health Organization Technical Lead, Maria Van Kerkhove, who says now is not the time to abandon the scientific and public health practices we know are saving lives.
“It is really important that the systems that we have put in place for COVID, and in many countries have been built over years, over decades, in fact, are strengthened. We want to see strong surveillance for COVID. That doesn’t mean testing everyone, everywhere. It means strategic testing and making sure we understand this virus, who is infected. We want to make sure those systems are in place to sequence so we have intelligent sequencing around the world to help us detect and track these variants. We need to beef up our supplies for testing, for personal protective equipment. We still have healthcare workers around the world who don’t have adequate protection. We need policies in place to support people to protect themselves. And we need people to know what their risk is every day, because the situation in every country is so different. What we need to do is find the right balance between reducing transmission while saving people’s lives. The most critical thing we need right now is increased vaccinations. And increasing in particular for those who are most at risk. And this remains fundamental to ending this emergency of this pandemic that we are in.”
The WHO continues to decry global vaccination inequity. It says this inequity has been driven by the fact that globally, vaccine production is concentrated in a few mostly high-income countries. And wealthier western nations have also cornered the market on buying up vaccine doses leaving developing nations scrambling.
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Canada suffered another 93 deaths on Wednesday while adding 6,374 coronavirus infections, a number that is very likely well underreported.
The national positivity percentage over the last seven days is 11.5%.
So far, the Canadian vaccination effort has administered 32,162,231 1st vaccine doses (84.11% of the total population) while 30,829,516 people (80.63%) have two doses, and of those 17,464,893 people are fully vaccinated with three doses.
In Ontario, COVID hospitalizations (1,066) rose (+32) while the number of severe infections in intensive care (302) has declined (-7). The province has a positivity percentage of 11.20%.
Quebec saw hospitalizations (1,604) drop (-138) while the number of severe infections in an ICU (96) also fell (-11). There were 28 more corona deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 7.92%.
Newfoundland and Labrador has 17 COVID patients in hospital, an increase of one. The province will begin phasing out restrictions next week with the goal of lifting all COVID measures by March 14.
In Nova Scotia hospitalizations (45) are down (-7) while there are 12 people in intensive care, which is unchanged. The province has a positivity percentage of 10.2%.
New Brunswick saw hospitalizations (77) edge down (-1) while ICU numbers (5) decreased (-3). The province is targeting March 14 to remove all remaining restrictions.
Manitoba saw COVID hospitalizations (524) decline (-29) with 32 people in intensive care, an addition of one. It has suffered 5 more pandemic deaths. The province has a five-day positivity percentage of 14.8%.
In Saskatchewan hospitalizations (372) have dropped (-38) since last Thursday’s update. There are 27 people in an ICU, a decline of six. With 99 pandemic deaths so far in February the month is now one of the four deadliest of the entire pandemic.
COVID hospitalizations in Alberta (1,357) dropped (-23) while the number of people in an ICU (92) dipped (-3). There have been two more corona deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 21.6%.
B.C. saw COVID hospitalizations (612) fall (-76) while the number of people with severe infections in an ICU (102) also dipped (-6). There have been 9 more pandemic deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 9.3%.