The Evening Report - Feb 16
Denmark’s COVID picture gets blurrier. Ammunition for Ukraine.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
As of March 31, Denmark will mothball its once world-leading COVID PCR testing program. Now, it is going even further to make it more difficult to ascertain the true pandemic situation across the country. As of the beginning of February, the number of COVID wastewater surveillance sites has been reduced from 87 to 29.
Testing rates have already plummeted, making infection numbers highly unreliable. While case counts are artificially very low, there are some potential signs of trouble in the latest weekly pandemic assessment from the Statens Serum Institute. Now reduced COVID wastewater surveillance is showing a 17% increase in coronavirus activity over the last three weeks.
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The SSI says the number of infections “stabilized” week to week, keeping in mind how unreliable case numbers are. The COVID incidence rate per 100,000 nudged upward slightly from 17 to 18. But, PCR testing numbers also continued to drop, falling another 11% last week. The weekly positivity percentage also rose slightly, going from 7.2% to 7.9%.
Looking at case numbers by age, seniors continue to be the most at risk, with the highest COVID incidence rate continuing to be among those 80 years old and older.
The highest positive percentage of 9.8% was among those 40 to 49 years old. Among vulnerable seniors in care, infection numbers continue to decrease, with 63 confirmed cases last week, 18 fewer than the week before. The positivity percentage among nursing home residents was 5.8% last week, a slight week-to-week increase.
In its Thursday daily report, Denmark recorded 127 corona infections (underreported), including 47 reinfections and seven more virus deaths in the last day.
The coronavirus claimed another 24 lives last week, down from the 41 deaths the week prior. Five of the virus fatalities last week were seniors in care. The SSI says excess mortality rates are “still elevated but decreasing.” The highest mortality rates are among seniors 85 years old and older.
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With just 1,765 PCR tests taken on Wednesday that equals a daily positivity percentage of 7.19%, over the last seven days the rate is 7.9%.
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Weekly hospitalization numbers were also stable, according to the institute. There were 178 new infection-related admissions last week, just one more than the week before. Seniors 70 to 89 years old continue to make up the largest proportion of new admissions, as they have for well over a year.
Daily COVID hospitalizations (196) declined slightly (-5) while the number of severe coronavirus infections in an ICU (11) also dipped a little (-2) of those, the number on a ventilator (3) crept down (-1).
Infection-related admissions to a psychiatric facility (50) are unchanged day to day.
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The Statens Serum Institute’s ability to accurately monitor COVID variant activity continues to erode as testing numbers and the sequencing of positive results continue to plummet. From what data it has now, the agency says recombinant XBB variants, especially XBB.1.5, are now dominant making up 32% of infections last week. All but 6% of those were XBB.1.5 infections.
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The Statens Serum Institute’s sentinel monitoring shows an overall week-to-week decrease in overall respiratory infection activity. Of the viruses in circulation other than COVID, the SSI says influenza and adenovirus were the most commonly detected.
Last week, influenza accounted for the highest proportion of respiratory infections. The SSI says that influenza infections continued to increase. Both the A and B strains saw increased activity. Along with rising flu rates, influenza-related hospitalizations are also on the rise.
RS virus infections continue to wane as due related hospitalizations.
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The Statens Serum Institute is warning that Denmark is seeing another ripple impact from the COVID pandemic. It says the number of severe streptococcal infections (iGAS), such as blood poisoning and meningitis, have “increased significantly.” In January, it says there were 99 confirmed iGAS infections up from 21 cases recorded in November. Currently, there are three or four new cases each day, which is three times the normal rate. The SSI is asking doctors to keep a sharp eye out. It says seniors and children under five who are most susceptible to invasive iGAS infections.
Department Doctor Peter Henrik Andersen:
“It is still important for doctors to be aware that there is widespread infection with GAS, which mainly manifests itself as strep throat and scarlet fever, but which is currently also causing an increased number of cases of invasive disease (iGAS)."
The institute says clinical microbiology data shows that 35% of the streptococcal infections behind serious iGAS cases are due to a new sub-variant “that has not been previously seen in Denmark.” It also adds that a few deaths have been seen among young children but it doesn’t provide an exact number.
Other European countries have suffered unusually high rates of streptococcal infections after removing COVID restrictions.
🇸🇪
Sweden added 991 new infections (wildly underreported) and 71 more corona deaths in the last week.
COVID hospitalizations (513) continue to fall (-129).
The Swedish Public Health Agency hasn’t updated vaccination statistics this week.
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Sweden is lifting its COVID testing requirements for all travelers arriving from China. The mandate for a recent negative COVID test in order to enter the country will officially be removed as of this Sunday (February 19). The Swedish Public Health Agency says the pandemic situation in China is much improved, and there is no longer a need to ensure incoming travelers from China are not infected.
General Manager Karin Tegmark Wisell:
“But it is important to remember that we are still in a pandemic, even if we now have a completely different situation than we had almost three years ago when the pandemic was first declared by the WHO. We now know that we will have to live with COVID and that we need to continue to follow the development so that the efforts can be as flexible as possible based on how the virus and our immunological protection against it develops.”
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COVID hospitalizations continue to ebb in Sweden’s capital region. In its latest weekly report, there were 172 infected patients in hospitals across Region Stockholm. That is 20 fewer than there were the week previous. After a few weeks without a single coronavirus patient in intensive care, one severe infection case being treated in an ICU.
The region says the situation is such that it will now issue its pandemic updates much less frequently. COVID updates will move from weekly to bi-weekly and then to the first Tuesday of every month.
Chief Physician Johan Bratt:
“The number of people being cared for with COVID continues to decrease, and we continue to have a clear downward trend. I want to emphasize that despite the reduced spread of infection, it is important to follow the recommendations given regarding vaccination.”
The region is reporting 158 new infections (underreported) over its latest weekly snapshot. Of those, 34 were vulnerable seniors in care.
The region also suffered another 29 pandemic deaths.
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The latest health report by Region Skåne shows the COVID pandemic has not had much in the way of lingering impacts on people’s state of health in Southern Sweden. Overall, there were mostly no major negative impacts of the pandemic other than the proportion of people who worry someone close to them will battle a severe infection is twice as high as any concern they themselves will become seriously sick.
In fact, the report showed people were sleeping better, had less stress, and were generally more physically active since 2019. But, there were some areas of concern, young women are suffering increased rates of mental health issues, and more people in Southern Sweden are becoming obese. This goes hand in hand with a considerable increase in the number of people who report being sedentary for at least 10 hours a day.
Chief Analyst Anna Råman:
“We clearly see that mental illness is high in the youngest age group and mainly for young girls. We saw exactly the same thing in Region Skåne's second major public health survey, which is aimed at children and young people from 2021, where mental illness is creeping down the ages. We must get better at understanding why our children and young people feel worse and what we can do to put in early measures and reverse the trend.”
🇳🇴
COVID activity is at a “very low level,” according to the latest pandemic update from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. It tempers the good news with a warning that another wave may yet arrive later this winter or spring, depending on emerging variants. The NIPH says new infections and infection-related admissions continue to decline. However, the institute also notes that COVID wastewater surveillance, which only covers about 30% of the Norwegian population, shows increasing virus activity.
“It is too early to say whether this is the start of a new increase or is due to other factors.”
While coronavirus numbers fall, influenza cases are still increasing. The institute says the rise in flu cases seems to be driven by growing influenza B strain infections.
“Influenza B is now also causing a new increase in infections in Denmark and Sweden.”
Norway’s national healthcare authority says the RS virus wave has peaked and is now in decline. Infections have fallen across all age groups, and hospitalizations have decreased as well.
Director Trygve Ottersen:
“Hospitalizations with respiratory infections are in the same order of magnitude as in the winter seasons before the pandemic. The further development of the epidemics this winter is uncertain and may be affected by the winter holidays.”
The number of coronavirus deaths is also falling, and excess mortality rates in Norway have returned to normal levels.
🇫🇮
Finland registered 726 new infections over the last week, along with 120 more pandemic deaths.
21.8% of the total population now has a 2nd COVID vaccine booster dose.
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Finland is still struggling to get health checkups for children and young people back on track after the COVID pandemic sideswiped the healthcare system. In Finland, kids get comprehensive healthcare checkups at four months, a year and half, and four years old. Health checks are also scheduled throughout the school years in the 1st, 5th, and 8th-grade years.
But, since the pandemic arrived, those checks ups have suffered. According to the latest update from the Finnish Institute for Health, in 2021, just 47% of health and school checkups were completed. The institute says that with the exception of four-year-olds, fewer year-over-year health checks were done across all other age groups.
🇩🇪
Germany recorded 20,911 new infections and suffered another 125 pandemic deaths in its Thursday update.
It added another 1,803 COVID hospitalizations while ICU numbers (776) crept upward (+13). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country, coronavirus patients are using 3.6%.
🇪🇺🦠✈️
European Union countries have decided to end the requirement that travelers arriving in Europe from China have a recent negative COVID test in order to enter the EU. The decision was made in a meeting Thursday, according to Swedish diplomats. Sweden currently holds the European Union Presidency. The testing mandate must be removed before the end of February for any European countries that introduced the restriction. EU member nations have also decided to end the practice of random COVID testing of travelers by mid-March.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada logged another 10,098 new infections and 188 more coronavirus deaths in its latest weekly update.
The seven-day positivity percentage is 11.5%.
COVID hospitalizations continued to decline, albeit not by much, across Canada. The total number of hospital beds in use by infected patients eased to 3,837, a drop of 54 from the week previous. General infection-related admissions dropped from 3,709 to 3,666 from week to week. At the same time intensive care numbers slid by 11 to 171 beds in use. The only statistic bucking the trend was the number of severely infected people on a ventilator, which rose by two to 93.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇪🇺
Temperatures were much colder across Europe in week 6, and that triggered countries to dip much deeper into their gas reserves as heating drove up demand. Week-to week, gas storage across Europe dropped from 70.42% down to 66.48%.
France, which has been struggling with its usually robust nuclear power production, used the most of its gas reserves (-0.99%), followed by Romania (-0.98%), Czech Republic (-0.75%), and Germany (-0.6%).
France (54.26%) and Romania (54.9%) have the lowest levels of gas left in storage among European Union countries. Trailing just behind is Hungary (56.7%) and Belgium (59.55%). Spain continues to have the most gas left in its tank (86.37%), along with Poland (78.5%) and Bulgaria (78.33%).
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Economic measures to shield Europeans from the worst of the energy crisis and soaring natural gas and electric bills this winter have hit €800 billion. This is according to think tank Bruegel, which says the money has largely gone toward tax cuts on gasoline and capping energy prices. While calling energy prices saves consumers some cash, governments are eating all of the prices hikes above the cap.
Among the individual countries, Bruegel says, Germany has outspent every other European country on energy subsidies. The agency says it has allocated almost €270 billion. Trailing behind Germany are Britain, Italy, and France, which have spent less than €150 billion. Most EU states spent a fraction of that.
The think-tank said that dynamic needed to change, as European nations are running out of fiscal space to maintain such broad funding.
🇩🇪
Despite somewhat warmer temperatures in Germany, for a third consecutive week, gas use has been above the reduction targets set by the German government to try and limit the risk of gas shortages. Household energy demand was down by just 10%. When temperatures have plunged, a rarity this winter, energy savings seemingly go out the window in Germany. That said, it’s late enough in the winter and its gas reserves are still pretty healthy, so the risk of any gas shortages this winter is greatly reduced.
🇪🇺 🇩🇪
A sign of the changing times. The first LNG tanker from the United Arab Emirates unloaded its cargo at the northern German port of Brunsbüttel this week. LNG tankers from the United States have already made the trip as Europe looks to the east and the west for natural gas to replace Russian energy. Germany is building floating and on-shore LNG terminals at break-neck speed as it seeks to completely replace the cheap Russian gas it largely relied on until Russia weaponized its energy exports.
In a calendar year, Europe has suddenly become the biggest LNG importer in the world. The move seeks to address its energy needs in the midst of a crisis, but climate activists say it is a major setback in the fight against global warming and that Europe is simply trading one crisis for another.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇩🇪 🇸🇪 🇫🇮/ 🇹🇷
It is a full-court press from NATO and a number if its member countries to pressure Turkey to turn the temperature down and vote to ratify Finland and Sweden’s applications to join the military alliance.
At this week’s NATO meetings, German Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock says her country backs the admission of both Nordic nations into the NATO fold and as soon as possible.
“Finland and Sweden meet the conditions we set in Madrid. Therefor for NATO as a whole, it is very important that Sweden and Finland join before the next summit."
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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was in Turkey on Thursday to offer any and all support to the regions hardest hit by last week’s devastating earthquakes. He says the military alliance will be sending tens of thousands of tents and use its massive airlift capacity to speed up shipments of emergency aid for the people who desperately need it.
While there he also addressed Finland and Sweden’s applications to join NATO telling Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Minister that “now is the time to ratify both Finland and Sweden.”
“Both can be ratified now. But the main issue is not that they are ratified together. The main issue is that they are ratified as soon as possible."
However, Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu maintained a hard line on Sweden, insisting it hasn’t fulfilled its end of a tripartite agreement, despite NATO and other allies insisting Sweden has in fact done so. He continued to take issue with the burning of a Quran in Stockholm several weeks ago. Cavusoglu says in Turkey’s eyes this is a hate crime and is “totally unacceptable.”
Only Turkey and Hungary have yet to ratify the ascension protocols for Sweden and Turkey. Both countries are the only two NATO member nations who continue to try to maintain cordial relationships with Moscow. Turkey’s opposition to Sweden’s NATO application has become more hostile in recent weeks.
NATO/ 🇺🇦
At this week’s NATO summit, ammunition issues were front and center. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says that the United States, France, Germany, Norway, and other countries have agreed to ramp up ammunition production to replenish NATO stocks and to ensure a steady supply for Ukraine. In a press conference on Wednesday, Stoltenberg wouldn’t answer questions about whether Ukraine is at risk of running out of ammunition any time soon.
“Putin is preparing new offensives and new attacks. That is why it is all the more important that we increase support for Ukraine. Not least of which, in the form of ammunition and increased production in the defense industry. The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles. The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production.”
Ukraine has warned that more ammunition is needed to cope with a new offensive that Russia may have already begun.
Stoltenberg was also asked about Ukraine’s campaign to provide the country with more modern fighter jets.
“It is an ongoing discussion. But fighter jets are not the most pressing issue. It is to give Ukraine what we have promised in the form of tanks, armored personnel carriers, ammunition and spare parts for the equipment that Ukraine has already received.”
🇩🇪/ 🇺🇦
Germany has signed a contract with arms manufacturer Rheinmetall to churn out ammunition for German anti-aircraft guns in Ukraine. The arms maker will restart ammunition production for the Gepard anti-aircraft guns Germany donated to Ukraine.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius
“We will soon start our own production of Gepard ammunition at Rheinmetall. I am very pleased that we have been able to guarantee the delivery of this important part of the Air Force.”
Ammunition for the Gepard weapons has been in short supply since the German military decommissioned the guns back in 2010.
🇳🇴 🇩🇰 🇮🇸 🇬🇧 🇳🇱 🇱🇹/ 🇺🇦
The first weapons package financed by a British led multinational fund for Ukraine is now ready to go. Britain worked with Norway, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Iceland, and Lithuania to create a weapons fund worth some 500 million British pounds. The fund is designed to allow Ukraine to take its weapons wish list and go shopping directly with arms manufacturers.
The Norwegian Ministry of Defense says significant new weapons and defense materials will soon arrive in Ukraine.
Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram
“Ukraine is now fighting for its existence. The need for military material is large and persistent, and it is not possible to donate everything from our own stocks. We must, to a greater extent, rely on the defense industry.”
Acting Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen:
“This donation is a great helping hand to the Ukrainian freedom struggle. This is equipment that is in great demand by Ukraine, so we can be proud to be part of this significant joint donation. These are substantial donations of capabilities that can be decisive on the battlefield. Close international cooperation is essential for Ukraine's fight for freedom.”
The package that is now ready will contain a wide range of military equipment, including drones, air defenses, ammunition, and various surveillance equipment.
🇳🇴/ 🇺🇦
Norway will send much sought-after Leopard tanks to Ukraine, according to a report from Norwegian media outlet NRK. It says Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram has confirmed that an “extensive tank package” from Norway will be headed to Ukraine. These will reportedly be the newer Leopard 2 A4 tanks. Norway will also send Ukraine four armoured vehicles.
At this week’s NATO meetings, Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram said that Norway would donate eight tanks.
“The war in Ukraine is a turning point. We have to deal with the fact that our security has been permanently changed. For Norway, it is important that NATO now builds up the ability to defend the alliance's member states. It strengthens our security but also places greater demands on us. Norway has a good defense, but it is too little. We must expect that a greater part of the community's resources must be spent on defense, security and preparedness. The insurance premium has increased.”
🇪🇺/ 🇺🇦
The European Parliament voted overwhelmingly to seriously consider supplying Ukraine with newer fighter jets, helicopters, missile systems, and more ammunition. 444 MEPs voted in favour, 26 were opposed, and 37 abstained, according to the EU Parliament’s press service.
🇸🇪 🇩🇰
Denmark and Sweden have signed declarations of intent to join the ‘European Sky Shield’ air and missile defense initiative.
Acting Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen:
“This initiative is an important step in a joint defense of Europe. It is important that we discuss cooperation opportunities with close allies. This is a clear signal that Denmark must help take responsibility for European security together with our neighbours.”
The German-led air defense initiative includes 16 other European countries. Denmark could have joined the program last October but chose not to due to looming national elections.
Swedish Minister of Defense Pål Jonson:
“Russia's war against Ukraine, with bombings all over the country, shows the need for stronger air and missile defenses. With this collaboration, we can both strengthen our capabilities and ensure that our air defenses and those of others can be linked together. With joint procurement, the countries can also share costs and get more for the money. With a major war in Europe, we find ourselves in one of the most uncertain and dangerous times since the end of World War II. That is why we are carrying out the largest modernization of our defense system since the 1950s.”
🇸🇪/ 🇺🇦
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson was in Ukraine on Thursday, where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“Sweden and the EU stand united with Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. Our support for Ukraine remains unwavering.”
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
The European Union continues to work on a 10th package of sanctions against Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says the new sanctions will introduce export restrictions on a number of electronic components that Russia uses to produce drones, missiles, and helicopters. The EU is also looking at sanctions that will directly impact the flow of Iranian-made drones to Russia, which are being used to attack Ukraine.
“These Iranian-made drones are killing civilians in Ukraine. It's disgusting. Therefore, for the first time, we propose to also sanction Iranian companies or organizations, including those connected to the Revolutionary Guard.”
🇦🇹/ 🇷🇺
More tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats. Austria ordered four Russian diplomats to leave the country. They were accused of violating international agreements and suspected of possible espionage. In return, Russia ordered four Austrian diplomats to get out.
Austria has taken the unusual step of trying to be neutral in the war in Ukraine. That is not good enough for Russia, which has now accused Austria of destroying its former position as a respected and impartial neutral state.
🇺🇸/ 🇷🇺
The U.S. State Department is urging all American citizens to leave Russia now!
“US citizens living or traveling in Russia should leave the country immediately. Do not travel there.”
This is due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and what the State Department calls an increased risk of being arrested on false grounds.
“Russian security forces have several times arrested American citizens on questionable grounds, detained and harassed citizens and denied them a fair trial.”
It is the second time since Russia invaded Ukraine that the State Department has urged any Americans in Russia to get out immediately.