The Evening Report - Feb 15
Denmark continues to see hospitalizations push to more record highs
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The COVID contact number (reinfection rate or R0) in Denmark continues to fall. Health Minister Magnus Heunicke tweeted today the R0 dropped from 1.0 last week to 0.9 this week. Heunicke also said the number of confirmed cases had also fallen, but he cautioned fewer people were being tested, and with that and other factors it means case numbers are “associated with uncertainty.”
Heunicke says COVID wastewater testing is a more reliable barometer of the pandemic situation. On that front, he says, wastewater sampling shows infection activity has increased slightly in all regions except for Metro Copenhagen, where there was a decrease. He says this “may indicate that the infection is higher than the number of confirmed cases suggests.” The health minister says this and other indicators continue to show infection activity declining in the east but rising in western Denmark.
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Denmark has recorded another record high number of COVID hospitalizations (1,523) as numbers keep rising (+58) while severe cases in an ICU (31) also rose (+6) and of those the number on a ventilator (13) inched up as well (+2). Admissions to a psych ward (362) continued to rise (+12).
As hospitalizations reached another record high, Health Minister Magnus Heunicke noted severe infections resulting in intensive care treatment have headed in the other direction. He also emphasized hospitalizations need to be looked at with context.
“However, an increasing proportion of these are due to causes other than COVID. They also have less serious disease courses and are hospitalized for a shorter time than before.”
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As the number of severe infections requiring hospitalization diminishes fewer patients are needing to be treated with COVID anti-viral medication.
Staten Serum Institut Professional Director Tyra Grove Krause spoke to DR:
“Only one out of every four [coronavirus patients] actually receive treatment for a COVID infection using antiviral treatment.”
While hospitalizations continue to push to new record heights on an almost daily basis, Krause is not concerned. She stresses that more people who are infected are being admitted to hospital for a variety of non-pandemic reasons and not because of their COVID infection.
“You will be registered as COVID-admitted if you have had a positive test within 14 days before admission. And it shows in the rising numbers.”
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Denmark is reporting 42,978 COVID infections, including 2,200 reinfections, and 30 more coronavirus deaths in the last day. Keep in mind infections are likely well underreported.
Yesterday there were 220,466 total corona tests done, of which 130,563 were PCR tests equaling a positivity percentage of a sky-high 32.91%
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We now know Denmark recorded its 2nd highest number of daily pandemic deaths, with 38 on February 13.
The Staten Serum Institut is reviewing death certificates and going through the death registry to provide more context on pandemic fatalities by separating COVID deaths by those who died - with - an infection where the cause of death is due to a non-pandemic reason and those who died - by - an infection. The reason for this, according to the SSI, is that to this point COVID deaths were defined as any death within four weeks of a positive test. It uses the example of someone dying in a car crash after testing positive, possibly being included as a virus death. This could make deaths over reported. But conversely, it also says the methodology ignores deaths due to an infection that might occur more than four weeks after testing positive. So it is now working to provide a better picture of the pandemic death toll.
The latest data (on a lag) on that is due Thursday. This is what it looked like in last week’s update. The area shaded yellow is deaths - with - an infection, while the area shaded red is deaths - by - an infection.
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On the vaccination front, the inoculation campaign continue to crawl with just 1,801 booster doses administered yesterday.
To date, 82.5% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 80.9% have two, and 61.5% have a booster shot.
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As Denmark moves closer, to ending all COVID rapid testing, the Danish regions continue to wind down quick test capacity. Region Syddanmark says it is adjusting operating hours at quick test sites where there is the least demand. Next week, the region will close down its rapid testing sites in Gråsten and Vojens.
On March 6, all rapid testing sites in Denmark will close their doors. Until then, Region Syddanmark says it will maintain at least one rapid testing site in each municipality.
Region Nordjylland also continues to wind down its rapid testing capacity. It says this is the last week two rapid testing sites will operate. The facility at Aalborg airport will have its final day on Sunday, February 20, before closing its doors. The other is the quick testing site in Dronninglund, which will have its final day of testing this Friday. At other rapid testing sites across the region, opening hours will be adjusted.
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Denmark’s Staten Serum Institut has been firing out tweets almost entirely in English this week as it fights an international public relations campaign pushing back on what it is calling misinformation. Denmark’s COVID strategy is being hotly debated online and while some legitimate points are being made and questions asked others are either torquing or misunderstanding the Danish numbers. Others are outright twisting the information to fit their own narrative. Among them are some high profile users with huge numbers of followers. The social media team at the SSI has been working overtime this week, taking on each user tweet by tweet to push back on misunderstandings, misinformation, and just bad takes.
Now the agency has taken the extra step of setting up a page on its website with the facts it is using to try and set the record straight. You can find it HERE.
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Sweden has added 78 more corona deaths and another 11,751 infections (wildly underreported) since its last update on Friday.
The chart below shows coronavirus deaths in Sweden so far in the pandemic.
The number of infected patients in an ICU (92) is down slightly (-2).
So far, 86.7% of the population 12 years old and older have one dose, 84% have two, and of those 18 years old and older 56.4% have a booster dose.
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Seniors in Sweden who are 80 years old and older will get a fourth round of COVID vaccinations. The Swedish Public Health Agency is recommending a second booster dose for seniors in care, those receiving home care, and all seniors 80 and older. The agency says a fourth dose should be given no earlier than four months after a third shot.
State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell:
“A booster dose strengthens the protection. Therefore, we assess that people who are 80 years and older would benefit from a second booster shot.”
The Swedish Public Health Agency says it made the decision after seeing increasing numbers of COVID cases among seniors in care and other vulnerable groups in recent weeks.
The second round of booster doses will begin to be administered next week.
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Hospitals continue to strain in Sweden’s capital region. As of Tuesday afternoon there were 581 COVID patients in hospitals across Region Stockholm; that is two fewer than the day before. 29 of those who are hospitalized are in intensive care, which is the same number as Monday. The region has 124 empty staffed care beds, ten fewer than it had 24 hours ago.
Chief Physician Johan Bratt:
“We should not think that the pandemic is over, far from it. But we see that there are now slightly fewer patients who are becoming so seriously ill with COVID that they need to be cared for at one of the county's hospitals. From the care providers, slightly lower sick leave rates are also reported.”
In the last seven days, the region has had 6,156 confirmed coronavirus cases. But, Sweden now only allows people in senior care or in hospitals to be tested and not the general public making its reported numbers pretty much meaningless.
Infection Control Doctor Maria Rotzén Östlund:
“Even though testing has now decreased significantly, we follow the pandemic in other ways. We can see that the spread of infection seems to be decreasing, but COVID remains to a very high degree in society and the risk of infection remains high. Those who are not vaccinated are at greater risk. Therefore, they should avoid crowded places. For those of us who are vaccinated, it is very important to stay at home if they have any symptoms that could be COVID.”
The region says it suffered 83 more pandemic deaths in the last week and continues to note a backlog in processing COVID fatalities.
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Officials in Region Skåne say the infection wave is easing, basing the claim on a small number of COVID tests. Since ending public access to COVID testing last week, the region says testing numbers across the board have declined. Since Wednesday of last week, only seniors in care and people who are hospitalized can get a COVID test.
Assistant Infection Control Doctor Birgitta Holmgren:
“In several of the groups that are tested, you can see a tendency for a lower proportion of positive results. This may indicate that the spread of infection is declining, but it is still at a high level. The important thing is that you remember that we still have a high spread of infection and that you stay at home when you are ill.”
The region says even among those who are self-testing “there is an ever smaller proportion” who are testing positive. It says this indicates infection numbers are declining although it does not provide any data to support that conclusion.
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Finland registered 4,426 infections and one more pandemic death since yesterday’s update.
COVID hospitalizations (684) are unchanged.
To date, 79.3% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 75% have two, and 48.4% have a booster dose.
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Finland is struggling with its own backlog of surgeries due to the COVID pandemic. The Finnish Institute for Health says as of the end of 2021 there were almost 160,000 were waiting for a variety of non-emergency procedures. The pandemic pressure on hospitals forcing surgeries to be postponed was reflected in the 17,000 more hospitalizations seen in December of 2021 than in the same month in 2020.
Development Manager Pia Tuominen:
“The total number of people waiting for urgent hospital treatment continues to grow as the corona epidemic continues to slow access to treatment. The number of people on a wait list is growing because more and more new patients are coming in and all patients need to be treated, taking into account the urgency of their care needs.”
Tuominen says staffing shortages are exacerbating an already bad situation with so many healthcare staff who are either infected or are isolating as a close contact.
The agency says of those on a wait list, about 10,800 patients (6.8%) have been waiting for treatment for more than six months. That is a number that grew by 1,200 people in just the last five months of 2021. Year over year it was an increase of 3,200 people.
The wait lists with the highest number of people who have been waiting six months or more were highest in the Kymenlaakso hospital district (11.1%) and the lowest in the South Karelia hospital district (0.1%).
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In Norway hospitalizations (382) have increased (+29) while the number of severe infection cases in an ICU (41) also rose (+5) and of those on a ventilator (23) numbers dipped (-2).
Norge added 16,809 infections and had no new virus deaths since yesterday’s update.
To date, 80.2% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one dose, 74.4% have two, and 52.6% have a booster shot.
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Germany’s Health Minister Karl Lauterbach says the Omicron-driven infection wave that has engulfed the country and driven case numbers to record highs “has broken.”
Lauterbach spoke to German media group Bild.
“The peak of the Omicron wave has passed, pretty much exactly on that day that I predicted a month ago.”
With infection pressure easing, he says, Germany can now begin relaxing COVID restrictions. Lauterbach is proposing a “moderate” easing with a gradual lifting of pandemic measures.
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Germany recorded 159,217 infections and 243 more corona deaths since yesterday’s update.
It added 1,720 more COVID hospitalizations while ICU numbers (2,473) increased (+45). As a percentage of overall adult intensive care beds in the country infection cases now take up 11.1%.
So far, 76.1% of the population has one dose, 74.9% have two, and 55.6% have a booster.
WHO🦠
The World Health Organization is warning that a major infection wave is sweeping across Eastern Europe and Central Asia. WHO Europe Regional Director Hans Kluge says in countries like Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Russia, and Ukraine infection numbers have doubled in the past two weeks. Kluge is also waving a warning flag noting that vaccination rates in many Eastern European and Central Asian countries are entirely too low. He says in Bosnia, Bulgaria, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan, for example, just 40% of the population over the age of 60 has been vaccinated. Kluge says with an “Omicron tidal wave” coming and the Delta variant still rapidly spreading in many of these countries, this is no time to lift restrictions.
“As anticipated, the Omicron wave is moving east. Ten eastern Member States have now detected this variant.”
Kluge urged the 53 countries in the region to take every precaution.
“Closely examine the local reasons influencing lower vaccine demand and acceptance, and devise tailored interventions to increase vaccination rates urgently, based on the context-specific evidence. This is not the moment to lift measures that we know work in reducing the spread of COVID.”
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I stumbled on this on Twitter and thought it to be a fascinating bit of information. John Burn-Murdoch is with the Financial Times and has been busy crunching pandemic data. In the graph below, he illustrates how vaccinations have helped drive down the infection fatality rate (IFR) and how it compares to immunity from infection recovery.
Burn-Murdoch makes the case that more than anything else, the mass vaccination campaign, in England in this case, beat down COVID fatality rates to about 60% higher than the flu, and they are still dropping fast.
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Northern Ireland has lifted all COVID restrictions. According to Health Minister Robin Swan, the restrictions will be replaced with recommendations giving people guidelines on how to best protect themselves but leaving them to make the decisions. Swan tested positive on Sunday. Among the restrictions abolished on Tuesday were mask mandates on public transit and in crowded indoor spaces. Also done away with is a coronapas requirement for bars and restaurants.
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Japan has suffered its deadliest day of the pandemic. On Tuesday, the country reported a record high 236 coronavirus deaths. Japan has suffered more than 100 pandemic deaths every single day of the year, pushing total to-date COVID deaths to over 20,000. The bulk of the fatalities were seniors.
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The Canadian government has eased COVID entry rules. Starting February 28, the requirement for a pre-arrival negative PCR test, even for fully vaccinated travelers, is abolished. Instead, people coming to Canada can use a rapid test “approved by the country they are coming from.” Even a self-test will do, but it has to be supervised by a nurse or other healthcare professional.
Currently, travelers to Canada are required to have a negative PCR test in hand no older than 72 hours.
Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos says the international pandemic related advisory against all unnecessary travel abroad will also be lifted.
“I want to underscore that Canadians should still exercise caution when traveling abroad. There is still a real risk of becoming sick or stranded while abroad and having to extend their trip or find themselves in need of medical assistance should they test positive.”
Restrictions on unvaccinated children will also be scrapped.
“This means they will no longer need to wait and self-isolate before attending school, daycare, or camps. They will also no longer be subject to testing.”
For adult travelers who are unvaccinated, they will face mandatory COVID testing on arrival as well as a 14 day quarantine.
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In Canada, COVID hospitalizations appear to be easing, with the total number of beds occupied by coronavirus patients dropping again from 9,956 to 8,499 from January 31 to February 7, a decline of 1,457. General COVID hospitalizations decreased by 1,320 over the same week with 7,492 infection admissions. Intensive care numbers fell as well, but to a much smaller degree going from 1,144 to 1,007, a drop of just 37. Of those in intensive care, the number on a ventilator (532) also decreased (-64).
Canada lost another 110 lives to the pandemic yesterday while reporting 5,801 new infections. Keep in mind, due to a broad array of testing woes across the provinces infection numbers are extremely underreported.
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The Canadian vaccination effort has administered 32,144,363 1st vaccine doses so far (84.07% of the total population) while 30,633,911 people have two doses (80.12%) and of those 16,948,059 have had a booster dose.
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All changes in hospitalization numbers below are reflective of the difference from our last report on all the provinces on Thursday of last week.
In Ontario, COVID hospitalizations (1,550) have dropped (-347) while the number of severe infections in intensive care (384) has declined (-61). Another 19 pandemic deaths were reported. The province has a positivity percentage of 12.29%. Ontario will begin lifting its vaccine passport system next month.
Quebec saw hospitalizations (2,052) drop (-260) while the number of severe infections in an ICU (132) also fell (-31). There were 56 more corona deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 11.64%. Beginning Wednesday, Quebec will begin phasing out its vaccine passport system.
Newfoundland and Labrador has 14 COVID patients in hospital (-11) the lowest number since January 18, with 6 people in an ICU (-2). There has also been one more pandemic death. The province has a positivity percentage of 28%
New Brunswick saw hospitalizations (101) dropped (-39) while ICU numbers (11) declined (-4). The province reported one more pandemic death on Tuesday. It has a positivity percentage of 16.82%. The province also confirmed its first cases of the BA.2 variant.
In Nova Scotia hospitalizations (74) are down (-16) while there are 11 people in intensive care, which is unchanged. It also reported six more corona deaths. The province has a positivity percentage of 12.1%.
Manitoba saw COVID hospitalizations (614) decline (-47) while the number of infected people in an ICU (38) inched down (-4). The province has a positivity percentage of 22%.
Saskatchewan only updates its COVID numbers once a week on Thursdays.
Alberta’s Chief Medical Health Officer Dr. Deena Hinshaw said Tuesday the province is transitioning from a pandemic to an endemic. It has a positivity percentage of 33.53%. There were another 14 deaths on Tuesday. COVID hospitalizations (1,538) dropped (-48) while the number of people in an ICU (123) dipped (-3).
B.C. saw COVID hospitalizations (787) fall (-80) while the number of people with severe infections in an ICU (124) also dipped (-14). There have been two more pandemic deaths in the last day. The province has a positivity percentage of 10.28%. B.C. is dropping restrictions on indoor and outdoor gatherings, but its vaccine passport system will remain in place.