The Evening Report - Dec 8
Rising COVID numbers in Denmark. Norway braces for a rough Christmas.
🦠Pandemic🦠
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Some mixed messaging from the Danish Health Authority. It has updated COVID guidelines, doing away with the requirement that people testing positive should isolate for a minimum of four days. At the same time as it ends the isolation requirement, the agency is also urging people to stay home if they are sick “regardless of what you are infected with.”
The health authority is also changing testing guidelines so that people should only get tested if they have coronavirus symptoms, are in a risk group, or need early COVID treatment. The agency says “mild symptoms” like a stuffy nose, throat irritation, or coughing aren’t enough to bother getting tested. Risk groups include pregnant women, seniors, people with chronic health conditions, and anyone over the age of 50 who has not been vaccinated.
It is banking on any new coronavirus wave to cause only a “minor increase” in infection numbers due to a high level of population immunity from either vaccination or having been infected, or both. Another round of booster doses are also factored in, as well as none of the new variants appearing to cause any more severe infections.
Acting Unit Head Line Raahauge Hvass says the changes are a return to “more normal.”
“We can now take a few more steps towards more normal conditions in handling COVID in both society and the healthcare system. There is no longer a need for coronavirus to have specific guidelines in comparison to other diseases. For example, the need for a four-day isolation after testing positive. On the other hand, it is important that we remember to be considerate of each other to prevent infection spread of respiratory viruses, because influenza can also cause serious infections in the elderly and chronically ill and that can add to the burden on the healthcare system. You must stay at home if you are sick regardless of whether you think it is coronavirus, flu, or another respiratory infection.”
Among the other changes to COVID guidelines, testing is no longer mandated for urgent hospital admissions “regardless of symptoms.” Special precautions to prevent infection spread during child births are also no longer necessary. However, it adds that if the expecting mother or father has infection symptoms then staff should take precautions.
The requirement for senior care home staff to get tested remains in place. Anyone testing positive should not come to work.
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COVID numbers continue to rise in Denmark. The Statens Serum Institute is reporting 3,459 new infections (underreported), including 1,715 reinfections, and 16 more coronavirus deaths in the last 48 hours. A technical issue meant there was no reporting yesterday.
COVID deaths in Denmark/Statens Serum Institute
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The positivity percentage continues to rise and the daily rate is now 18.87%. Over seven days it is 19.4%.
Last week the positivity percentage was 18% a big increase from the previous weeks 13%.
By age, the highest positivity percentage (27%) is seen among those 16 to 19 years old.
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Infection activity increased across all age groups but the latest Staten Serum Institute weekly pandemic snapshot notes virus activity increased the most among those 40 to 49 years old, the age group just outside the target group for a 2nd booster dose vaccination.
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Of concern, infections continue to increase among vulnerable seniors in care, with 208 confirmed infections last week. Infection activity in nursing homes has been increasing for the last two weeks. The number of seniors in care admitted to hospital due to a coronavirus infection rose from 17 to 28 week to week.
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COVID infections are also increasing among senior care home staff and hospital workers. But nursing home employees have seen the biggest increase in infection activity between the two groups. The incidence rate week to week rose from 170 per 100,000 people to 304. The positivity percentage also increased from 5.1% to 9.3%. Among healthcare workers, the positivity percentage jumped from 12.7% to 19.4%.
Senior Physician and Section Leader Bolette Søborg:
“It is not surprising that we are currently seeing an increase. We have had a low number of coronavirus infections for a long time, and the current increase is presumably partly due to the seasonal effect and partly to the fact that new subvariants are currently emerging, including BQ.1.1, which to a greater extent infects people who have previously been infected or have been vaccinated.”
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The overall COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people jumped from 77 to 123 cases week to week.
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The BQ.1.1 coronavirus variant continues to pick up steam and was the strain responsible in 38% of all sequenced positive tests last week. BA.2.75, which didn’t do much initially, has suddenly started to take off and accounted for 17% of cases last week. The recombinant (variant combining two different strains) XBB variant is also spreading albeit at a slower rate, and made up 6% of infections.
Senior Physician and Section Leader Bolette Søborg:
“There are no signs that BQ.1.1 causes more serious disease than the other BA.5 variants. We are following the development closely, but at first it does not look worrying, because despite the increase in the number of people infected with BQ.1.1, we do not see a corresponding increase in serious illness, including an increase in admissions to intensive care.”
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COVID wastewater surveillance shows a “sharp increase” in coronavirus activity over the last three weeks nationally and across all 5 Danish regions. The “sharp increase” in virus activity detected in the wastewater is also seen nationally.
Interestingly, the Statens Serum Institute says both BQ.1 and BA.2.75 variant activity decreased in wastewater testing, making the BA.5 variant the dominant strain specifically in wastewater testing.
“The occurrence of variants in the wastewater at the individual sampling locations is normalized in relation to the amount of virus in the wastewater and the population in the catchment area, but since a maximum of 50 samples are sequenced weekly of the total approximately 200 samples taken per week is the occurrence of the stated percentage of e.g. BA.2.75 and BQ.1 not necessarily a direct expression of the distribution of this variant in the entire population, but nevertheless express trends of the distributions between the variants.”
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Region Sjælland has the highest COVID incidence rate (134 per 100,000 residents) followed by Region Syddanmark (133). Region Midtjylland has the highest positivity percentage with 22%.
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COVID hospitalizations (372) dipped slightly day to day (-10) while severe infection cases in an ICU (10) and of those the number on a ventilator (4) each crept upward (both +1).
Admissions to a psychiatric facility (62) also crept up (+3).
Total pandemic hospitalizations jumped to 445 last week, a big increase from the 299 from the week before. Seniors 70 to 89 years old continue to make up the largest proportion of new infection-related admissions as they have all year.
The hospitalization rate for admissions directly because of a coronavirus infection, as opposed to those who have tested positive but need hospital care for a non-pandemic reason, dropped last week going from 42% down to 38%.
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On the vaccination front, 31.8% of the total population now has a 4th dose. As of the end of last week, 74% of those in the target group of those 50 years old and older had a 2nd booster dose. For those 85 years old and older, vaccination uptake for a 2nd booster dose is 87%. And 88.5% of vulnerable seniors in care have had a 2nd booster dose.
The SSI notes that the positive impacts of the fall booster dose campaign are reflected in COVID hospitalizations. It says among those 50 years old and older, admission rates per 100,000 people fell from 24 pre-booster dose administrations to 11 since. In the most vaccinated population, seniors 85 years old and older, the hospitalization rate was 40 after the booster dose campaign compared to 154 prior to September 15th, when the booster dose effort began.
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The one number not heading upward is pandemic deaths, with 28 more lives lost to the virus last week; that is, two fewer than the week before.
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The Statens Serum Institute and Region Hovedstaden are running a joint study to see if a new method of PCR testing kits allowing people to test themselves might, or might not be effective.
The "PCR-supervised test" project began on December 1st and will run until the 22nd at the testing center in Valby. About 3,000 people will take part. The idea is to see if, with little or no guidance, people can administer the PCR test themselves and then log their test results using an app on their smart device.
SSI Professional Director Anne-Marie Vangsted:
“We had a very promising pilot study before the summer holidays. Now we are going a step further and investigating the method in a wider group.”
If the study is successful, the health agencies hope it can be an effective method to better monitor pandemic developments and infection spread at the population level.
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The Statens Serum Institute’s sentinel virus surveillance shows that the RS virus was the most frequently detected respiratory virus. The agency says the RS virus wave has peaked and cases are now falling, but infection numbers still remain way above historical averages. RS virus-related hospitalizations are also still a concern.
The SSI says there is no rest for the weary, though, as a COVID wave arrives, and a massive RS virus wave recedes, influenza numbers, while at low levels, are increasing.
🇸🇪
Sweden has added 8,278 infections (wildly underreported) and another 107corona deaths in the last seven days.
COVID hospitalizations (1,126) have jumped (+224) while ICU numbers (21) are also up (+7).
Vaccination statistics have not been updated this week.
🇫🇮
Finland registered 12,654 infections and 124 more pandemic deaths in the last week.
COVID hospitalizations (911) are down (-19).
So far, 79.6% of the total population has one dose, 76.6% have two, 54.3% have one booster, and 20.6% have a 2nd.
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The Finnish Institute for Health is adjusting how it calculates COVID deaths. Up until now, a pandemic death was anyone who had died within 30 days of a positive test result. Beginning this week, the institute will only count it as a coronavirus death if COVID is listed as the cause of death on the person’s death certificate.
Chief Physician Tuija Leino:
“It is important to draw attention specifically to deaths caused by the coronavirus. In cases where COVID is recorded as a contributing factor to death, the actual cause of death is something else. In Finland and internationally, we consider the number of corona deaths to be those cases in which the death is considered to have been caused by the virus.”
Leading Expert Sirkka Goebeler says this means that reporting pandemic deaths will take a little longer.
“Reporting based on checking death certificates is slower than the previous method of combining data from the Infectious Disease Register and the Population Register. However, the vast majority of the causes of death can be found out within a few weeks.”
🇳🇴
Unpredictable. That is how the Norwegian Institute for Public Health describes its COVID epidemic at the moment. It says while coronavirus numbers are “increasing slightly” the real threat involves more or less simultaneous infection waves between coronavirus, influenza, and RS virus.
In its latest weekly pandemic assessment, the NIPH says influenza infections are “increasing rapidly” and much earlier than usual. While the influenza epidemic will likely be in full swing in the last half of September, outbreaks are already underway in at least four regions.
The health agency says influenza vaccination coverage is far too low, especially among healthcare workers, vulnerable seniors, and other risk groups. It is urging people to get their flu shots as fast as humanely possible. Just 59% of vulnerable seniors have a flu shot. For healthcare workers it is a low 33%. Among those 18 to 64 years who are in a high-risk group coverage is a woeful 30%. While children 17 years old and younger have an abysmal 5.9% uptake.
The institute is now expecting that all three epidemics, COVID, influenza, and RS virus, will have a “significantly greater” infection spread over the Christmas holidays. It warns that this is going to put a lot of strain on hospitals while also increasing outbreak risks in nursing homes housing some of the most vulnerable populations.
COVID hospitalizations, which had been increasing for eight straight weeks, declined slightly last week. There were 252 new admissions, down slightly from the previous weeks 265. But influenza-related hospitalizations are increasing, going from 67 to 92 from one week to the next. RS virus hospital admissions are also rising, with 78 admissions last week, 26 more than the week prior. In the case of RSV, admissions were predominately children under the age of four.
COVID wastewater surveillance continues to show increasing amounts of virus activity as it has for eight straight weeks now. The NIPH says coronavirus activity measures in the wastewater is higher than what was seen during the summer infection wave. Wastewater sampling shows an increase in variants other than BA.5; the recombinant XBB is one example.
The number of visits to an emergency room or a family doctor due to a coronavirus infection continues to rise. While influenza-related trips stabilized week to week.
Confirmed COVId infections, an unreliable statistic, have increased for a seventh straight week with 1,045 (underreported) infections last week.
The positivity percentage for influenza infections rose from 5% to 7% from week to week. Most have been identified as the influenza A strain, but the NIPH there is a growing number of H1 infections.
The positivity percentage has also increased from week to week for RS virus infections going from 4.3% to 6.2%. Among just children four years old and younger the positivity percentage is 28.7%.
Vaccination uptake for a 2nd COVID booster dose among seniors 75 years old and older is 71%, among those 65 to 74 years old it is 63%.
The institute’s mathematical modeling has concluded that the COVID infection picture is “uncertain.” But, an overall assessment of all indicators points to increasing infection numbers.
🇩🇪
Germany recorded 40,255 new infections in its Thursday COVID update while suffering another 125 pandemic deaths.
It added 1,940 more hospitalizations, while ICU numbers (989) dropped slightly (-24). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country, coronavirus patients are using 4.7%.
🇪🇺 💉
The European Medicines Agency and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control are working together to set up a fully independent vaccine assessment process in Europe. After seeing misinformation and fear fuel rising vaccine skepticism during the COVID pandemic, the two agencies decided an independent European solution was needed. The two health agencies will build infrastructure across Europe to evaluate vaccines using real world evidence completely independent of pharmaceutical industry interests. The network will be funded using European Union funds only.
ECDC Director Andrea Ammon:
“This is particularly important and crucial looking at the rising levels of vaccines skepticism that we have seen for COVID vaccines but also for other vaccines. At the same time, we also want to build a stronger bridge between the regulatory and public health dimensions of vaccine assessment, and the pandemic has shown how critical this is.”
EMA Executive Director Emer Cooke said this is about building trust in vaccines.
“With the new vaccines monitoring platform, we have an instrument in place through which we will prioritize research, fund independent studies, and complement our knowledge of how vaccines work in real life. The additional evidence generated through these independent studies will enhance our ability to continuously monitor the safety and effectiveness of vaccines.”
The first EU-funded vaccine study from the cooperative is already underway. It is evaluating the effectiveness of the Imvanex vaccine to treat mpox infections. There are 15,000 people taking part in the study.
🇨🇦
COVID hospitalizations across Canada have nudged upwards.
In the latest update on pandemic admissions from the Public Health Agency of Canada for the week ending December 5th, the total number of hospital beds used by a coronavirus patient rose by 75, to 5,638. The increase was entirely in general admissions; where the number of pandemic patients increased from 5,296 to 5,387.
Intensive care capacity headed in the other direction, dropping slightly by 16, to 251 beds in use. The number of severely infected people on a ventilator also inched downward to 105, seven fewer than the week before.
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The protein-based Novavax COVID vaccine will be manufactured in Canada, according to its parent company. Production will be based in Montreal and it should begin churning out doses by early next year. Health Canada recently approved the use of the more traditional vaccine on kids between 12 and 17 years old. It determined that the vaccine provided safe and effective protection against severe coronavirus infections, hospitalizations, and death
Novavax Inc. recently cut its revenue forecasts due to a global glut of COVID vaccines. Its bottom line was also impacted by its vaccine hitting markets well behind the more well-known and more widely used mRNA vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇸🇪 🇫🇮
Energy prices in the Nordics continue to push higher. The Scandinavian countries saw some of the highest ever day-ahead baseload electricity prices as winter temperatures arrived. In particular, Finland and southern Sweden really saw electricity prices soar.
In Stockholm, day ahead prices rose above €400 per megawatt hour for just the 7th time ever.
🇫🇮
Electricity prices have shot up by between 40% to 60% in the third quarter of this year compared to Q3 2021, according to numbers from Statistics Finland. The wholesale electricity price also hit a record high of 22 cents per kilowatt hour, a nearly three-fold increase year over year.
Energy woes in Finland are being exacerbated by continued problems at the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant. It supplies about 10% of Finland’s total capacity. Problems with a reactor mean the plant won’t be able to hit full capacity until sometime in January at the earliest.
🇪🇺
A number of European Union countries are on opposite sides of a debate over the EU’s proposal to cap gas prices as a way to tackle the cost of the energy crisis on consumers. Countries like Belgium, Italy, Poland, and Greece are all for the idea. But, Reuters is reporting that Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Estonia, and Luxembourg are all opposed to the idea. Energy ministers will meet in Brussels on December 13 to decide the fate of the proposal.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
The European Union has piled even more sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says this 9th package of sanctions is going to punish Russia for its inhumane attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.
“Russia continues to bring death and devastation to Ukraine. It is deliberately targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure. It is seeking to paralyze the country at the beginning of winter. But we stand by Ukraine and we will make Russia pay for its cruelty. The eight packages of sanctions that we have issued so far are already biting hard. But today we are stepping up the pressure on Russia with a ninth package of sanctions. First, we are proposing to add almost 200 additional individuals and entities to our sanction list. This includes the Russian armed forces as well as individual officers and industrial defense companies, but also members of the State Duma of the Federation Council, ministers, governors, and political parties among them.”
The new sanctions target key figures who are helping Russia target civilian areas and infrastructure; those who are helping in the kidnapping of Ukrainian children, in forced deportations to Russia, and in the theft of Ukrainian agriculture harvests and products.
As well, three more Russian banks were hit with sanctions including the Russian Regional Development Bank, which is now under a full transaction ban.
And in an effort to further kneecap the Russian war machine, export controls and restrictions have been placed on key chemicals, nerve agents, electronics, IT components, and other materials that could be used by the Russian army.
In addition, the EU is looking to put a serious crimp in Russia’s ability to access drones and other unmanned aircraft. The export of drone engines, either directly, or via a third country, to Russia is banned.
There are also new sanctions on Russia’s mining and energy infrastructure including the banning of any new investment from the EU. It is also targeting Russia’s propaganda machine taking down another four Russian TV channels and “other distribution platforms.”
This comes on top of a full import ban on seaborne oil from Russia and the capping of Russian oil prices at $60 per barrel.
🇩🇰
The Danish Armed Forces website was hit with a DDOS attack on Thursday morning, taking the website down for most of the day. Initially, it was thought to be a technical issue before the denial of service attack was identified. It says, so far, there doesn’t appear to be any additional impacts.
“There are thus no operational consequences for the armed forces.”
🇫🇮 🇹🇷
Finnish Minister of Defense Antti Kaikkonen is in Turkey this week as he meets with his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar on a number of topics, chief among them Finland’s NATO membership application.
Kaikkonen is hoping to bridge the impasse as Turkey looks to leverage the situation to pry compromises out of both Finland and Sweden as they look to join NATO.
“The bilateral relations between the defense administrations of Finland and Turkey are in good shape. I hope that we can start cooperation as NATO allies as soon as possible."
After the meeting, Kaikkonen spoke to Finnish media, saying Turkey did not provide a timetable for NATO ratification. He also danced around Turkish demands that in order to get their support that Finland end a ban on arms exports to Turkey.
“During the past months, a few defense equipment industry export projects to Turkey have received the green light for the initial phase. Finland does not have a categorical ban on arms exports to Turkey.”
Hungary and Turkey are the only two NATO member nations who have yet to ratify Sweden and Finland’s ascension protocols.
🇫🇮 🇺🇦
Finland is seeing an increase in incoming Ukrainian refugees. According to Interior Minister Krista Mikkonen, more than 45,000 Ukrainians have applied for temporary asylum in Finland. Now, the Finnish Border Agency is seeing another 400 to 500 Ukrainian refugees applying for asylum every week.
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Finnish bus companies are donating busses to Ukraine to help get Ukrainian children to school during the war. Five busses left Finland en route to Ukraine earlier this week and more will be on the way soon.
🇩🇪 🇺🇦
More arms from Germany have arrived in Ukraine. The latest shipment includes 50 Dingo armoured and mine-resistant vehicles; this is on top of the 30 delivered previously. Also arriving in Ukraine was 12 M1070 Oshkosh tank transporter tractors, 3 Beaver bridge-laying tanks, 10 unmanned surface vessels, and 65 border protection vehicles.
🇱🇹 🇱🇻/ 🇷🇺
Lithuania and Estonia are both following fellow Baltic nation Latvia in revoking the broadcast license of a Russian TV channel due to concerns over the spreading of Russian propaganda and the threat to national security. Latvia announced earlier this week it was revoking the broadcast license for the Russian TV station Dozhd, which is to end all on air broadcasts as of today (Thursday).
🇨🇦 🇳🇱 🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺
Canada and the Netherlands have both joined Ukraine’s lawsuit accusing Russia of genocide in its illegal invasion of Ukraine. The lawsuit has been filed in the United Nations court.