The Evening Report - Dec 6
Infections rising in Sweden. Europe to get its first winter energy crisis test.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
Friends, family, and co-workers were the greatest infection risk in Denmark during the first two years of the pandemic. That is the finding of a study from the Danish Statens Serum Institute. The agency compared two groups of 500 people each in the study. One group had tested positive and the other had not. All were 18 to 49 years old, not vaccinated at the time, and had roughly the same behaviors, like going to the grocery store, taking public transit, and attending social events, etc. The aim was to identify where the risk of becoming infected was particularly high.
And while it also compiled a list of all the COVID restrictions of the time, the study doesn’t wade into which ones may or may not have been effective.
The SSI study found a higher infection risk came from being in restaurants or bars, especially if alcohol was involved. It determined gyms presented a modestly increased infection risk. But by far it was close contacts like family, friends, and co-workers, who presented the highest infection danger. The most likely places to catch COVID? Your home, workplace, and among gatherings of family and friends.
The study’s findings fall in line with a previous similar study done over Christmas in 2020.
The study has been published in the scientific journal PLOS ONE and you can find it in full HERE.
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COVID indicators continue to rise in Denmark.
There were 1,430 confirmed infections on Monday (underreported), which included 659 reinfections, while two more lives were lost to the pandemic.
The daily positivity percentage is 16.42%. Over seven days the rate was 18.6%. In both cases those are increases.
COVID hospitalizations (382) also continue to climb (+21) while the number of severely infected people in an ICU (9) crept upward (+1) of those, the number on a ventilator (3) is unchanged day to day.
Infection admissions to a psychiatric facility (59) dipped slightly (-1).
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On the COVID vaccination front, the fall booster dose campaign appears to be slowing right down, with just 31.7% of the total population now having a 4th dose. That is up just a tiny bit from last Thursday’s 31.5%.
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International studies from places like the United States and Norway have caught a lot of attention recently for finding that a COVID infection might lead to a significantly increased risk of diabetes. But, a study from Denmark’s Statens Serum Institute is pouring cold water on those findings, at least on the ones pertaining to children.
The agency did a deep dive into the very comprehensive Danish registers and the country’s extremely robust surveillance reports. In doing so, researchers identified 1.1 million Danish children, of which, just 144 who had tested positive for a COVID infection subsequently were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. This compares to 469 children who developed type 1 diabetes without ever having a coronavirus infection.
Researcher Professor Anders Hviid:
“Fortunately, it does not appear that there is a connection, and we can say that with a high degree of certainty, as we have included relatively many infected children in our study.”
The study also looked into whether specific COVID variants may be linked to increasing diabetes diagnoses but came up empty. They also found no difference between children by gender, age, or if their family had a history of diabetes.
The study is a pre-print so has not yet been peer-reviewed. It has been published by MedRxiv and you can find it HERE.
🇸🇪
The Swedish Public Health Agency only updates national COVID statistics once a week every Thursday.
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COVID hospitalizations have jumped in Sweden’s capital region. There are 426 coronavirus patients in hospitals in Region Stockholm, 82 more than there were just a week ago. There are nine severely infected people in an ICU.
Chief Physician Johan Bratt:
“We have a clear increase in the number of people being cared for due to a coronavirus infection in Stockholm. It is in emergency hospitals and in geriatric care that we see the increase the most.”
Bratt says the increase in COVID activity is being exacerbated by rising numbers of RS virus infections among children and the beginnings of an influenza wave.
“There are several viruses in circulation, in addition to COVID, also RS virus where there are many cases, especially among children, but also influenza, where we are starting to see an increased spread. I therefore want to remind everyone to stay at home if you are sick and to take the COVID vaccines that are being offered to high-risk groups and people over 65 who can also get an influenza vaccination.”
The region saw 1,061 new infections in the last seven days. Infection numbers in Sweden are wildly underreported due to its testing regime, which restricts the general public from accessing PCR tests. Of the new infections 203 were among vulnerable seniors in care.
Region Stockholm also recorded another 18 pandemic deaths over the last week. It continues to remind people that Sweden as a whole is still struggling with a backlog of reporting COVID deaths as it has all year long.
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Coronavirus infections are also rising in Southern Sweden. Region Skåne doesn’t provide any firm numbers but says infections have more than doubled in the last two weeks and hospitalizations are also increasing.
Infection Control Doctor Eva Melander says this is the first time since August the region has seen a rise in COVID cases.
“It is an increase from low levels, but we already know that it can quickly lead to a more extensive infection spread. The most important thing you can do to protect others from getting infected is to stay home from work, school, and preschool, leisure activities, parties, and other private gatherings when you feel sick. You should stay at home until you feel better and have been fever-free for at least 24 hours.”
The region is urging people, especially those at highest risk, to get vaccinated. The advice also stands for those who should get their flu shots.
“Vaccination protects against severe coronavirus infections and influenza. When coivd-19 is now increasing in society, it is therefore especially important to get vaccinated against COVID according to current recommendations if you have not yet done so. Anyone who is 65 years old or older or those who are at high-risk for influenza should also take the opportunity to get their flu vaccine if they have not yet done so. It is fine to be vaccinated against both COVID and influenza at the same time.”
Increasing coronavirus infections, RS virus, and influenza cases are increasing pressure on hospitals in the region.
“Considering that we have several respiratory viruses circulating in society and a flu season that is about to begin, the situation can quickly become strained for healthcare. For that reason, it is important that everyone does what we can to try to keep the spread of the infection down.”
🇳🇴
The Norwegian Institute for Public Health no longer provides daily COVID updates and instead does a robust once-a-week report every Thursday.
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A study from Norway found that long-COVID rates did not differ a whole lot between infections involving the Delta or Omicron variants. Researchers from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health set out to test the idea that because Omicron infections were generally less severe than Delta variant ones, if there would also be a difference in long-COVID statistics. Their results found it was pretty much a wash.
Researchers tracked 1.3 million Norwegians between the ages of 18 and 70 for 126 days from the day they tested positive. They then tracked visits to family doctors or an emergency room that involved long-COVID symptoms. Specifically, fatigue, cough, musculoskeletal pain, palpitations, shortness of breath, anxiety and depression, and difficulty concentrating.
Researcher Karin Magnusson:
“We found that the risk of typical long-COVID that were diagnosed by a general practitioner after a coronavirus infection was the same regardless of whether one had been infected by Omicron or Delta.”
There were however, some slight differences. The study found people recovering from an Omicron infection were slightly lower at risk of seeing a family doctor for long-COVID symptoms. Among those who did report symptoms, Omicron infections seem to involve fewer incidents of muscle pain.
“Taken together, the findings mean that Omicron will cause an equal, or somewhat lower, long-term burden on primary healthcare service as a result of late symptoms than what Delta will cause. But the difference between the virus variants is not great.”
The study has been published in Nature and you can find it HERE.
🇫🇮
The Finnish Institute for Health updates its COVID numbers every Thursday afternoon.
🇩🇪
Germany registered 46,787 new coronavirus infections in its Tuesday update while also suffering the loss of another 188 lives.
It added another 2,357 hospitalizations, while ICU numbers (965) rose slightly (+19). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country, pandemic patients are using 4.6%.
So far, 77.9% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 76.3% have two, and 62.5% have a booster shot.
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As German health ministers continue political discussions about what to do, if anything, to combat increasing coronavirus cases, the head of the country’s disease control prevention agency knows what actions he wants to see taken.
Speaking to Welt, the President of the Robert Koch Institute, Lothar Wieler said this will not be a case of one big COVID wave, but rather different infection waves happening in parallel. Wieler says people should wear a mask and if they have a COVID infection they should isolate regardless of official regulations.
“At the moment it is noticeable that more and more people are getting infected with the flu. That's why I don't think there will be a pure corona wave in winter, but that a series of respiratory infections will spread in parallel.”
Germany’s national Health Minister, Professor Karl Lauterbach is meeting with his counterparts across the German states this week to discuss what if any, infection measures need to be taken. So far, no consensus has been reached.
Mask regulations vary in Germany from state to state. Nationally, masks are only required on long distance trains. That regulation is due to expire on April 7, 2023.
🇬🇧
Nine children have died in Great Britain from scarlet fever, or otherwise known as a streptococcal A infection. The country is being swamped with scarlet fever cases, with 851 confirmed infections so far. In all the years prior to this there was an average of 186 infections, according to the UK Health Security Agency. It says that it is extremely rare for a child to die from a streptococcal infection, so to have nine deaths in such a short span is unheard of.
One of the working theories in the search for why this is happening is that it might be linked to COVID restrictions protecting children from the usual viruses and diseases their immune system would normally have to combat.
Sky News is reporting that there is discussion about administering penicillin across schools in the UK as a preventative measure. The UKHSA says the most common result of a scarlet fever infection is a fever and sore throat. Usually in the rare instance of an severe infection, it says there can be muscle issues and perhaps blood poisoning.
🇨🇦
Pandemic deaths in Canada now exceed 48,000 lives lost. The Public Health Agency of Canada, in its latest weekly update, is reporting 14,815 new infections (underreported) and 227 more deaths pushing the total to-date number of COVID fatalities to 48,044.
The seven day positivity percentage is 11.8%.
PHAC updates, case numbers and a few other statistics on Tuesdays and COVID hospitalizations every Thursday.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇪🇺 🇬🇧
As temperatures drop heating demand is rising, putting the first real strain on gas reserves in Europe. Gas consumption is increasing across the EU. European Union gas storage levels dropped from 93.94% to 91.56% as of December 3rd.
At the country level, Belgium continues to have its gas reserves fully topped up. Germany is at 96.8% followed by Spain at 96%.
The Netherlands, Hungary, and Slovakia have all seen their gas reservoirs fall below 90%.
In the UK, a cold snap is beginning, with temperatures in places like Scotland forecast to fall to minus 10 degrees. Exceptionally cold weather is also called for in Wales, Ireland, and Southern England.
This will continue to put pressure on energy reserves and further exacerbating the energy crisis as it increases demand puts pressure on the competition for gas supplies.
🇩🇰
Just over 300,000 people in the Aarhus area who get their heat from Kredsløb Fjernvarme A/S have been told they won’t have to worry about price increases next year. The company told TV 2 Østjylland that its books are in the black, which helps but it also reached a pricing agreement with the Danish energy company Ørsted that is beneficial to their customers.
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The Danish Energy Agency says in a press release that it has given the green-light to a pilot project that will store CO2 underground, in this case in Danish waters at an old oil field in the North Sea.
Agency Head Henrik Sulsbrück:
“The pilot project is an important step in relation to developing the methods and technology for cost-effective and environmentally and safety-responsible CO2 storage in Denmark.”
The companies running the project will be allowed to store just 15,000 tonnes of C02 emissions over a four month period. The cap is because the project is more about testing the technology that would see the carbon compressed and then pumped underground. If the pilot project is a success, then the Danish government is prepared to help fund a full CO2 storage project beginning in 2025.
🇫🇮
Old Man Winter is giving Finland a break on the energy crisis front. There were concerns that temperatures would plunge into a deep freeze, with national energy operator Fingrid even warning of the possibility of “precautionary measures.” But, the weather forecast has eased and while significant snow is in the forecast, super cold temperatures are not.
Finland’s Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor has yet to start-up and that combined with the possibility of cold weather and increasing heating demands, has generated concerns over electricity supply. But with frigid temperatures holding off and some brisk winds spurring increased wind energy generation, some of those fears have eased.
🇸🇪
Swedish energy utility, Vattenfall, has delayed the start of its Ringhals 4 nuclear reactor until at least February 23. This could cause some energy crisis headaches for Sweden and neighbouring countries, including the Baltics, as everything remains on a power consumption knife edge.
🇫🇷 🇺🇸
In a bit of an ideological turn around France has agreed to buy even more LNG from the United States as it rushes to address energy shortfalls from Russia turning off the taps. This is the third deal for American LNG struck by French energy company Engie this year. This is just a couple of years removed from Engie ruling out purchasing LNG from the United States over environmental concerns.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇪🇺 🇺🇦
Fears that Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure could cause another refugee wave out of Ukraine and into the EU have so far not materialized. The Russian bombardments have left huge chunks of the country in the dark and without heat in freezing temperatures. Despite that, the European Union’s border agency, Frontex, says almost the same amount of Ukrainians have entered the EU as have returned home in the last week.
Specifically, Frontex statistics show that 229,500 Ukrainian citizens have entered the EU in the last seven days while 208,990 left to return home.
🇩🇰 🇺🇦
Packages of bloody animal parts have been showing up in the mail at Ukrainian embassies around Europe. According to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, another bloody package arrived at the country’s embassy in Copenhagen this week. Another one also showed up at the Ukrainian embassy in Romania. The packages arriving at other embassies have usually contained animal eyeballs. But what was in the package arriving in Denmark has not been disclosed.
🇫🇮/ NATO
Despite Turkey and Hungary dragging their heels on a vote on whether to ratify, or not, Finland and Sweden’s NATO applications, the Finnish government is getting the ball rolling on its own domestic parliamentary process. On Monday, the government submitted its NATO ascension proposal to parliament.
“Legally, Parliament may consider the government proposal before all NATO member states have ratified Finland’s Accession Protocol. After Parliament has considered the proposal, the President of the Republic will decide on Finland’s accession to NATO. However, Finland’s instrument of accession may be deposited with the Government of the United States in its capacity as Depositary and Finland may become a member of NATO only after all NATO member states have ratified Finland’s Accession Protocol and the NATO Secretary General has invited Finland to join the Alliance.”
Should the process unfold without any hiccups, and if Hungary and Turkey actually vote to ratify the two Nordic nations becoming full NATO members, then Finnish parliament could make it official with a simple majority vote.
🇹🇷 🇫🇮
Turkey continues to try and use the situation of Sweden and Finland’s NATO applications to wring every concession it can from the two Nordic nations. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar has invited Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen to Turkey this week to discuss the NATO membership situation. Akar is also putting another ask on the table, that Finland drop its arms embargo on Turkey in order for it to secure Turkish support to join the military alliance.
Turkey has stonewalled both Sweden and Finkand’s NATO applications until its demands are met. They include both countries coming down hard on Kurdish people considered by Turkey to be terrorists and expediting extradition procedures to deport them back to Turkey.
🇩🇪 🇵🇱 🇺🇦
Germany has blocked a Polish effort to move Patriot missile defense batteries from Poland and into Ukraine. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said on Tuesday that the decision by Germany was disappointing.
🇱🇻 🇷🇺
Latvia is yanking the broadcast license of an independent Russia TV station. The country’s media watchdog group says the station is a threat to national security and public order. It is also under investigation for allegations it supports the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The station just stop broadcasting as of this Thursday.
🇪🇺 🇭🇺
The showdown between Hungary and the rest of the European Union took another turn on Tuesday. The Hungarian government has vetoed a €18 billion aid package for Ukraine. The measure required approval from all EU countries and Hungary was the only one to vote no. The move comes just weeks before European Union officials will decide to keep holding up about €14 billion in EU funding that would otherwise flow to Hungary. The EU has also now delayed the adoption of billions more euros for Hungary’s recovery plan.
The stand-off centers, at least publicly, around EU demand that Hungary address corruption issues. It blocked European funding until the Orban government made meaningful headway to address its concerns. So far, it seems that not enough progress has been made. Behind the scenes, European officials are frustrated with Orban’s near totalitarian hold on Hungary and his vociferous support of Russia, which includes undermining European sanctions.