The Evening Report - Dec 19
Global COVID deaths increase. For China the pandemic is coming full circle.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🌏🦠
COVID cases inched upward around the world while coronavirus deaths really increased according to the latest global pandemic report from the World Health Organization. In the week ending December 11, there were over 3.3 million new infections, an unreliable statistic due to incredibly low testing numbers. That equates to a week-to-week increase in coronavirus cases of 2%. But COVID deaths jumped by 10% with over 9,700 more lives lost during the week.
The WHO region with the biggest increase in COVID deaths by far was Africa (+975%). The WHO says this is partly due to batch reporting. The regions of the Americas (+37%), Eastern Mediterranean (+81%), and the Western Pacific (+5%) followed behind. Virus fatalities decreased in the European region (-17%) and South-East Asia (-10%).
While Africa saw the largest increase in deaths, it also recorded the biggest decrease in infection activity week over week (-73%). Cases also fell in South-East Asia (-33%) and in Europe (-11%). Increasing infection numbers were almost exclusively driven by the Americas (+27%). In the region it is rising infection numbers in the United States behind the increase as it recorded 448,634 new COVID cases in the week (+50%) while also losing another 2,934 American lives to the pandemic (+62%).
Elsewhere at the country level, Japan saw infection continue to spiral upward (849,371 new infections; +13%) while pandemic deaths in the country also increased (1,358; +28%). In South America, Brazil recorded another 194,170 infections (+3%) and 603 more deaths (-5%). In Europe, France registered 366,699 new coronavirus infections in the week (-5%) while suffering 478 deaths (+4%). Italy saw its pandemic fatalities drop, with 475 lives lost (-29%).
“Current trends in reported COVID cases should be interpreted with caution as several countries have been progressively changing COVID testing strategies, resulting in lower numbers of tests performed and consequently lower numbers of cases detected.”
The WHO’s variant numbers are almost a month behind. Around the world, the Omicron variant was dominant, covering 99.5% of the meager 204,042 positive sequenced test results. Of those, BA.5 and its sub-variants held the lions share of results with a prevalence of 73.7%.
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WHO officials are warning that COVID testing and sequencing numbers have fallen off a cliff, and that is leaving us blind to pandemic developments and the ability to monitor the evolution of potentially dangerous coronavirus variants.
Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program Dr. Mike Ryan:
“At the moment, we are allowing too much of our surveillance architecture to wither and to fall away. And that may come back and bite us next year. That may come back and really hurt us next year.”
Epidemiologist and WHO COVID Technical Lead Maria Van Kerkhove agrees and says COVID surveillance around the world needs to improve.
“This will bite us. I think it will because COVID has not settled into a niche. It has not settled down into a predictable pattern. We know it will continue to evolve. And this notion that it will only become more mild is false. It could, and we hope so, but that’s not a guarantee. Sequencing has dropped 90% since the beginning of the year, 90%! The number of countries that are providing sequences has dropped drastically. What we do need to know is what is circulating out there. So we need to have some eyes around the world on this. You can’t have those eyes in only one or two or four countries. And right now our geographic representation of sequencing around the world is diminished.”
🇪🇺🦠
Infection numbers and pandemic-related hospital occupancy have increased across the European Union and the greater European Economic Area. Infection numbers, an unreliable statistic, rose by 6% according to the latest weekly pandemic snapshot from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. The agency notes the rising infection numbers were both across vulnerable seniors and across all overall age groups. This is the 2nd straight week of increasing coronavirus cases in the EU.
At the individual country level, 23 European nations recorded rising COVID cases across all age groups. In six countries, infection numbers among high-risk seniors surpassed 30% of each country’s respective pandemic maximum.
The positivity percentage across the EU/EEA rose from 19.7% to 21.4% week to week. 11 countries saw an increasing positivity percentage.
Of the 15 countries reporting hospitalization data, while hospital and intensive care admissions have remained stable at the EU level, occupancy rates have increased, a sign of increasingly longer average stays for treatment. Overall, occupancy rose by 13% except in ICU units where it remained stable. At the country level, eight nations reported increasing numbers either in general or ICU admissions. France has the highest hospital occupancy rate, in excess of 50%. It also recorded its 4th straight week of increasing intensive care admission numbers. Denmark, Cypress, and Luxembourg each saw ICU capacity increase in week 49.
The good news is that overall pandemic deaths in Europe continue to fall. That said, five countries, Croatia, Estonia, France, Latvia, and Liechtenstein, each reported increasing pandemic fatalities.
Over the next two weeks, the ECDC is forecasting that infection numbers across Europe will keep rising while pandemic deaths will be stable.
So far, across Europe, 54.6% of the total population has one COVID vaccine booster dose. That number rises to 84.8% among seniors over the age of 60. Just 12.7% of the European population has a 4th dose. Among seniors 60 years old and older, the uptake for a 2nd booster dose is 33.1%.
There are just nine countries in Europe testing and sequencing in numbers sufficient enough to provide reliable data. Of those, and reporting on a two week delay, the BA.5 variant covered 47.2% of sequenced positive test results. The BQ.1 variant continued to gain ground, coming back in 40.5% of infections. While the BA.2.75 strain showed up in 8% of cases.
🇩🇰
Get vaccinated against influenza now. That is the message from the Danish Health Authority, which is expecting what it calls a “tough flu season” ahead. The agency says flu cases are already on the rise. It is emphasizing that it is very important that high-risk groups, especially seniors, get a flu shot now before infection numbers really take off. The health authority is also urging healthcare employees who play a pivotal role in protecting the rest of the population also to make sure they get their flu vaccinations.
Currently, Denmark offers influenza vaccinations for seniors 65 years old and older; those in vulnerable and high-risk groups, pregnant women, healthcare staff, and children two to six years old.
To date, 81% of seniors have had their flu shot, but vaccination rates are far lower among healthcare employees and children. Just 21% of eligible children have taken the special pediatric nasal vaccine. That is roughly one out of every five eligible children in the country.
The deadline to get kids a free two-dose influenza nasal vaccine is approaching fast. The hearth authority says parents have until December 21, to get a first dose for their children to take advantage of the free vaccination offer before it expires.
Section Manager Kirstine Moll Harboe says while high vaccination rates are good news among seniors, but they will still be at risk if others around them who could be vaccinated, aren’t, especially over the holiday season.
“It is important that healthcare employees are vaccinated if they have contact with vulnerable and elderly citizens or patients in general on a daily basis. We offer staff vaccination against both influenza and coronavirus both to protect themselves from getting sick and to protect the people they have to care for who may be at increased risk of a serious course of flu or COVID”
Influenza vaccinations are available at a family doctors office, pharmacies, and vaccination centers operated by the five Danish regions.
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Now former Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke told reporters, in officially handing over the ministry to the new incoming minister, that the pandemic pushed him and everyone from the ministry through the healthcare system to their limits. Wiping away tears, Heunicke admitted that the strain of the pandemic years wore on him to the point he had to see both a doctor and a psychologist.
Heunicke spoke to Sundhedpolitisk:
“No one can fathom how hard it has been. It has been crazy. The number of feverish days and nights when we were unsure, had we done enough?”
Heunicke said employees working with him in the ministry could see the strain he was under and told him directly he needed to set some limits.
“We can see that you sit and process cases at 03.20 at night; you can't keep it up for long, I was told. They sent me to a doctor, and I went to a psychologist, and I got help to get through it.”
Heunicke also thanked everyone from the ministry of health for the “extraordinary efforts” they had all made in working virtually around the clock during the pandemic.
Sophie Løhde is the new Minister in the renamed Ministry of Interior and Health.
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Since Friday, COVID hospitalizations (488) have increased (+88) the number of severely infected people in an ICU (13) has dipped (-3) and of those the number on a ventilator (5) has crept upward (+1).
Infection admissions into a psychiatric facility (77) also edged upward.
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In the last three days, Denmark has reported 2,602 new COVID infections (underreported), including 1,131 reinfections, and 27 more coronavirus deaths.
Pandemic deaths by day/Statens Serum Institute
With 13,958 PCR tests taken in the last 72 hours, that equals a positivity percentage of 18.64%.
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The trend line for new infections across Denmark over the last seven days isn’t changing much. As in previous weeks, infection activity is concentrated among those 20 to 64 years old. Again, as we know from the detailed weekly pandemic update, more accurately it would be people 20 to 49 years old. Virus activity is now concentrated just outside the target group for a 2nd booster dose, which is everyone 50 years old and older.
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Over the last week, 64% of all coronavirus-related hospitalizations were among seniors 65 years old and older. This is in line with hospital statistics from the last number of weeks as well.
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To the World Health Organization’s point about the dangers of vastly diminished COVID testing and sequencing, this chart is a good visualization of how Denmark, once a world leader in COVID surveillance and PCR testing, has essentially thrown in the towel.
At its height, Denmark was administering over 700,000 COVID tests a day and was, at least statistically, doing enough testing to cover its entire population about every week and a half.
🇳🇴
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health only updates the national pandemic picture once a week in a report usually published every Wednesday.
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A Norwegian survey on COVID restrictions impacts has found that people are impacted differently based on where they live, their age, and other socio-economic factors. The survey included 22,808 people in four regions of Norway, Agder, Nordland, Vestland, and its most populace region, Oslo.
The report found that pandemic restrictions had the most impact on people who live in Norway’s largest cities as opposed to those in more rural locations. Breaking it down further, young people, especially children in school and young adults (18 to 29 years old) in college and university, experienced the most consequences of COVID restrictions. Through another lens, those with college and university degrees suffered more repercussions than people with a lower education level.
Parents of young school age children were also pretty inconvenienced by COVID restrictions as they balanced working from home and the added responsibilities of dealing with children who either couldn’t go to school or went but with a bunch of added rules and behaviors that had to be factored in.
Another group that struggled were social workers and senior care aides whose job was to care for others but in an environment with things like protective clothing, masks, and other factors to limit infection risk to their vulnerable charges.
Researcher Tony Mathias Leino:
“The results from this survey show that the burden of infection control measures varies a great deal between groups in society. This can be useful information to have when considering measures in connection with any future pandemics.”
In a nutshell, the report found that the consequences of COVID restrictions were not evenly felt or distributed across society.
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The pandemic doesn’t seem to have exacerbated existing mental health challenges among the Norwegian population. A new report from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health compared mental health statistics from the five years before the pandemic and contrasted them to where things stand now. The result? No discernible difference.
The institute says statistically people who are unemployed suffer higher rates of anxiety, depression, and other mental health challenges. It says roughly six out of every ten unemployed people struggle with some form of mental health challenges. For a person holding down a job, that number is four in every ten. The institute says that statistical difference hasn’t changed through the pandemic.
Health Investigator Grethe Fochsen:
“The differences between the unemployed and employed during the pandemic are in line with those we have seen in previous measurements. For most people, work is the primary source of income and a good standard of living, which in turn has implications for health. Health can also affect the opportunity to get employment.”
The agency says unemployed people are prescribed medication for depression, anxiety, and stress much more often than any other group. Prescriptions increased annually until the pandemic arrived in 2020 and through 2021, where the increase in prescriptions abruptly stopped.
“We know that fewer people sought care in acute psychiatry during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. One possible explanation is that many refrained from seeking care.”
🇨🇳
The pandemic could come full circle in the new year, as China’s zero COVID strategy could result in deadly consequences. An American research company, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, says the coronavirus death toll in China could exceed a million more lives lost next year alone.
China is between a rock and a hard place. Three years of severe COVID restrictions and a very lackluster vaccination rate with much less effective Chinese vaccines have left its population with next to no immune protection. This is as even more hyper contagious variants circulate. Those same restrictions have also sparked unheard-of protests across the country, forcing a rare backing down from the communist government. Restrictions have been relaxed and the country could already be seeing the largest infection outbreak since the pandemic began in the spring of 2020. And this could be just the tip of the iceberg.
Last week, Chinese health authorities forecast that more than 800 million people in the country could become infected just this winter alone, estimating that it could result in around 500,000 deaths.
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In the Chinese city of Shanghai, hearth authorities have asked many primary and secondary schools to move classes entirely online beginning today (Monday) as coronavirus infections spread. In the city’s financial district kindergartens could close for in-person attendance by next week.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇪🇺
Temperatures have dropped across Europe, energy consumption has spiked, but prices have somehow still gone downward so far this month.
Below is a graph charting energy withdrawals from gas storages in Europe.
The good news, depending on your desire for a white Christmas in Europe, is that temperatures are forecast to be three to four degrees above average in the week leading up to Christmas. This will reduce heating demand and gas withdrawals.
As for why energy prices have gone downward is a matter up for some debate among energy experts. One hotly contested idea is that gas price caps are playing some kind of a role. Another less controversial thought is that despite energy concerns, cold temperatures, and rising heating demand, energy markets are pretty secure with the energy supply and demand picture in Europe at the moment and that comfort is minimizing any concerns about the energy crisis risks we are currently living with.
But, the fly in the ointment is an extremely cold winter snap forecast for the United States. With the EU much more dependent on American LNG, the States will see gas consumption, which is already well above pre-pandemic peaks, rocket even further upward. This will be in addition to electricity demand. This could result in a ripple effect on gas prices for the EU.
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But, according to a report from Bloomberg, the energy crisis and associated wildly fluctuating energy costs may be with us a lot longer than we would like. The media company estimates the energy crisis has cost Europe roughly $1 trillion (U.S. dollars) so far, and in its words, the crisis “is only getting started.”
Bloomberg says that if the EU squeaks through this winter, it will then have to immediately race to refill energy reserves with no gas coming from Russia, increased global LNG competition, and the demand side price fluctuations that will come with. Global LNG markets are forecast to remain pretty restricted until 2026, when more natural gas capacity will flow into the markets from the United States and Qatar.
A Brussels think tank estimates that European governments have shelled out something like $700 billion (again USD) in aid and subsidies to help alleviate soaring energy costs and rising inflation. Bruegel says this is not fiscally sustainable, especially if the energy crisis lasts for years yet and factoring in rising interest rates and economies in recession.
Basically, the conclusion is that the energy crisis is only going to get much harder to manage next year.
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The European Union has reached an agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions much faster pace than before. The goal is now to cut CO2 emissions by 62% from 2005 levels by 2030. That is 55% higher than the previous emissions reduction goal. The plan hinges on setting an emissions ceiling on how much companies can emit across member states. The emissions cap will be extended to cover some 10,000 power plants and the entire European shipping industry, should the agreement be ratified.
Czech Environment Minister, Marian Jurecka spoke to Ritzau:
“[This ensures the EU]lives up to the climate goals in the primary economic sectors, while the most vulnerable citizens and small businesses receive support in the climate transition.”
The agreement comes as polluting coal-fired power plants are being reactivated across the EU as a backstop against concerns of energy shortfalls due to the ongoing energy crisis.
🇩🇪
The first of five planned floating LNG import terminals has been opened in Germany. The official opening of the platform came as the first LNG tanker arrived from Nigeria on Sunday. The ship carried enough LNG to supply enough energy for up to 80,000 homes in Germany for a full year.
The terminal was built in record time as Germany’s reliance on Russian gas left it reeling when Russia turned off the taps.
While helping to address its energy needs, the new LNG terminal is also causing concerns. German news agency Tagesspiegel reports there are concerns that the LNG terminal could pose an ecological risk to marine life, to the environment, and to Germany’s emission reduction goals.
🇳🇴
The energy crisis has been a boon for Norway’s economy. The value of Norwegian natural gas exports this year has tripled in value year over year to about 870 billion Danish kroner (about $19 billion Cdn). That is according to figures from the Norwegian Statistics Bureau. The massive jump in value is due to the energy crisis, rising prices, and demand, as Russia turns off the taps, and the European Union looks to sever all energy reliance on Russian gas.
Last month, the Baltic pipeline began operations providing a direct natural gas pipeline from Norway into the European Union.
🇫🇮
The Finnish government has failed to reach a consensus on measures to try and ease the cost of soaring electricity bills for consumers. On the table was what was called a hybrid model approach involving a price cap, state-guaranteed energy contracts, and offering people a longer period to pay their bills. But the measures failed to get the support of all government ministers. They will try again on Monday night.
🇩🇰
A Danish initiative to drive the production of green fuels has been awarded 600 million kroner (about $116 million Cdn) from The Danish Business Authority.
In its first two phases, the Green Fuels for Denmark consortium says it will produce renewable green hydrogen to power heavy industrial trucks and enough e-methanol to fuel an ocean-going vessel or several ferries. Also on the drawing board are plans to start production of a green synthetic jet fuel and e-kerosene. In its 2nd phase, the consortium hopes to produce enough e-kerosene to cover at least 30% of pre-pandemic jet-fuel consumption at Copenhagen airport.
Copenhagen Airport Chief Operating Officer Christian Poulsen:
“Power-to-X is key to a green transition for aviation, and it is crucial to get development and production going. Together with the necessary framework conditions, the Danish IPCEI funding can contribute to the realization of Green Fuels for Denmark and lead the way for a more sustainable aviation. At Copenhagen Airports we are proud to be part of the journey and happy that the project has reached this important milestone.“
The Green Fuels for Denmark consortium consists of Danish energy company Ørsted, who is leading the development of the project, and a number of major Danish logistics companies with global reach. It also includes major Danish industrial companies like A.P. Moller – Maersk, Copenhagen Airports, and SAS airlines.
Ørsted Power-to-X Chief Operating Officer Anders Nordstrøm:
“We’re very pleased to have received funding from the Danish government for Green Fuels for Denmark, and we’d like to commend Denmark for taking a leading role in fighting climate change also in the hard-to-abate sectors. Power-to-X can become Denmark’s next green business stronghold, and with the right, supportive regulation, ‘Green Fuels for Denmark’ is uniquely placed to lead this second phase of Denmark’s green success story.”
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
Countries in the European Union remain strongly supportive of Ukraine. According to the latest Eurobarometer survey, sympathy for Ukraine remains sky-high across Europe. In fact, the numbers of those saying they aren't sympathetic are small enough to be a statistical error.
🇫🇮 🇸🇪/ 🇹🇷
It looks like Finland will bow to Turkey’s demands to loosen its restrictions on the export of military weapons to Turkey in order to win the country’s support for its NATO bid. Finnish news agency STT reported over the weekend that the defense ministry has given “an initial green-light” to the Turkish demand.
Although Finland has no formal ban on arms exports to Turkey, Finland has, since 2019, not issued any new arms export permits to Turkey following the country's ground attacks against Syrian Kurds.
28 of the 30 member nations have ratified Finland and Sweden’s NATO applications. Just Hungary and Turkey have yet to put the matter to a vote. Turkey has been using the situation to pry every concession it can from the two Nordic nations. In order to become full NATO members, Sweden and Finland need all 30 NATO member countries to approve their applications.