The Evening Report - Aug 4
New variant a dud in Denmark. Germany tables winter COVID strategy.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
The BA.2.75 Omicron variant, which set off international concerns due to its mutations and explosion of cases in India, is not seeing the same growth in Denmark. The Danish Staten Serum Institute says just 13 infection cases have been confirmed of the new variant since it arrived in Denmark on July 8.
Director Henrik Ullum says while it is still early days, the variant so far does not seem to be able to compete with BA.5.
“Data on this variant is still very sparse, but the low number of cases does not indicate a wider circulation in the population. At the moment there is also no significant increase in the number of cases. Statens Serum Institut can therefore not conclude whether BA.2.75 is capable of outcompeting BA.5.”
The BA.5 variant made up 92% of all positive sequenced test results in week 30, and there is at the moment no signs that other variants are seeing any significant growth.
BA.2.75 has been identified in 27 countries and has so far recorded its largest increase in infection numbers in India. The variant is classified as a “variant under monitoring” by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. It set off alarm bells among epidemiologists due to nine mutations in the strains spike protein, which could signal an increased ability to evade immunity.
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The latest weekly pandemic assessment from the Statens Serum Institute seems to indicate the summer COVID wave is easing. It says new infection numbers dropped by 19% last week compared to the week before. But, PCR tests also fell by 15% meaning COVID case numbers continue to be underreported.
The positivity percentage eased slightly week to week, going from 24% to 23%.
The COVID incident rate per 100,000 people is highest in Region Sjælland (206) and Region Syddanmark (190). That said, the incidence rate declined in all five Danish regions. The positivity percentage also dropped in all regions with the exception of Region Midtjylland where it increased.
Looking at it by age group, the COVID incidence rate increased slightly among six to 15 year olds, and was stable among those three to five year olds. For all other age groups incidence rates declined. People 50 to 69 years old have the highest incidence rate with 248 per 100,000 people. The highest positivity percentage, 26%, was seen among 40 to 49 year olds. It also increased for young people 19 years old and younger and for those 30 to 39 years old.
While intensive care admissions remain stable, COVID hospitalizations dropped sharply week to week, falling 23%, with 587 admissions last week, down from 764 the week before. Seniors 70 to 89 years old continue to make up the largest number of new pandemic admissions. The one concerning development is that the proportion of people being admitted directly because of a coronavirus infection continues to climb, reaching 62% in week 28.
There were more lives lost to the virus last week with 60 pandemic fatalities, up from 50 the week prior.
Among one of Denmark’s most vulnerable populations, seniors in care, the positivity percentage (3.2%), the number of confirmed cases (141), and hospitalizations (31), all dropped. However, COVID deaths edged upward with 12 fatalities last week, up from 10 the week before.
Nationally, virus activity is falling according to the latest COVID wastewater surveillance data. By region, coronavirus activity declined in four of the five Danish regions while it stabilized in the fifth, Region Syddanmark.
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COVID hospitalizations (436) dipped (-7) while the number of severe infections in an ICU (20) and of those the number on a ventilator (7) are both unchanged day to day. Infection admissions to a psychiatric facility (76) inched up (+1).
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Denmark reported 1,686 COVID infections (underreported), including 404 reinfections, and another 13 coronavirus deaths in the last day.
Yesterday there were 7,975 PCR tests taken equaling a positivity percentage of 21.14%, over 7 days it is 23.72%.
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On the vaccination front things remain pretty stagnant with 81.6% of the total population with one vaccine dose, 80.2% have two, 61.8% have a booster dose, and 0.8% have a fourth vaccine dose.
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The Staten Serum Institute’s sentinel surveillance says the two most common respiratory viruses other than the coronavirus continue to be parainfluenza and rhinovirus.
🇸🇪
Sweden has added 5,956 infections (wildly underreported) and 75 more corona deaths since its last update last Thursday.
The Swedish Public Health Agency hasn’t updated COVID vaccination statistics since June.
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Sweden’s summer infection wave remains unchanged week to week with a high rate of infection activity but confirmed cases roughly in the same neighborhood last week as they were the week before. Sweden restricts PCR testing to seniors in care and people being admitted to hospital, making it all but impossible to get a handle on its actual pandemic situation.
The agency says there were 10 ICU admissions last week slightly lower than the average of 14 seen in each of the three preceding weeks. That said, it adds, there are some delays in reporting making the figures uncertain.
Sweden lost another 56 lives to the virus last week; that is higher than the average of 44 deaths in each of the previous three weeks. Of those deaths, 30 were seniors in care. The healthcare agency ominously adds it expects the number of fatalities to rise further.
Department Head Sara Byfors:
“In order to avoid severe infections, it is important that everyone who is recommended to be vaccinated against COVID does so and that those who are offered booster doses take them. Stay at home and avoid close contact with others if you are sick and have symptoms that could be COVID. Adults who are not vaccinated should avoid crowds and large gatherings, especially if they are indoors.”
🇫🇮
Finland has registered 47,182 infections (underreported) and 239 virus deaths. I suspect there is some summer holiday catch-up in this report.
COVID hospitalizations (706) are up (+52).
To date, 80.4% of the total population has one dose, 77.4% have two, 54% have a booster, and 8.4% have a 4th dose.
🇳🇴
Norway added 109 infections and had no new reported pandemic deaths in the last day.
In the last week there have been 209 COVID related hospital admissions that is nine fewer than the previous week.
So far, 80.5% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one vaccine dose, 75% have two, and 55.8% have a booster dose. These numbers haven’t changed much in months.
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The Norwegian Institute of Public Health says its BA.5-driven summer infection wave has peaked and is now in slight decline. But, the agency emphasizes the pandemic is not over, and preparations must be made for another infection wave to come as summer holidays end, a new school year begins, and fall and winter arrive.
Infection Control Director Trygve Ottersen:
“The situation could also change if we get new virus variants that are more contagious. That is why we continue to follow pandemic developments closely and ask health institutions to be prepared for more hospitalizations, for more outbreaks, and for rising numbers of staff who will be out sick. Now it is important that seniors in care who are over 75 to take a fourth dose of the vaccine, and that these groups receive an offer for this in the municipalities. The municipalities must also prepare to broaden vaccination efforts to more groups soon. Otherwise, society can continue with normal everyday life without its own infection control measures against COVID.”
The NIPH publishes a bi-weekly pandemic situation report. In its latest update released on Wednesday, it says COVID hospitalizations have leveled off. In week 28 there were 280 new infection admissions, that dropped to 198 the following week, and last week there were 192 new admissions.
There were no COVID deaths reported in Norway last week after seeing eight fatalities the week before. There were 97 coronavirus deaths in week 28, and the NIPH cautions the latest numbers are “expected to be adjusted upward.”
Excess mortality, the number of deaths above the average, is largely “as expected” although looking at it by age, the institute notes there were more deaths than is usual in weeks 25,27, and 29 among seniors 65 years old and older.
The agency says COVID wastewater surveillance shows a slight downward trend in virus activity in the areas being monitored, which cover approximately 30% of the population.
The NIPH says the number of pandemic related visits to a doctors office or emergency room, which have been increasing since early June, began to decrease last week. There have also been fewer COVID outbreaks in healthcare facilities in the last two weeks than the two weeks prior to that.
The number of PCR tests administered in Norway has been declining for the last five weeks, making it hard to assess the true pandemic situation.
91% of seniors over the age of 65 have had one booster dose in Norway. Among those 18 years old and older, it is 67%. For elderly seniors 75 years of age and older 21% have had a second booster shot.
🇩🇪
Germany recorded 74,645 infections and suffered another 192 coronavirus deaths since its Wednesday update.
It added 1,549 new hospitalizations, while ICU numbers (1,395) dropped (-46). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country, COVID patients are using 6.5%.
To date, 77.8% of the total population have one dose, 76.2% have two, and 61.9% have a booster shot.
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Germany has tabled a COVID plan for the coming fall and winter months. The strategy must still be approved by the German Bundestag (Parliament). If passed it would require mandatory face mask use and proof of a negative COVID test to enter any hospital, nursing home, or similar seniors care or health facility. Airplane passengers and those making long distance train or bus trips would also have to mask up. The rules would be in place from October to April.
Germany’s 16 states would also have the authority to legislate their own COVID measures if the pandemic gets out of hand again. State governments would have the flexibility to require masks on public transit, at public indoor events, and for students in class from grade five and up.
German Health Minister Karl Lauterback:
“The states can implement most of these rules, but do not have to. The rules may not please everyone. But unfortunately we will need them. Germany should be better prepared for the next coronavirus winter than in previous years.”
In a statement, Justice Minister Marco Buschmann said a special efforts will be made to avoid closing schools unless it is an absolute last resort.
“Children have a right to a school education and a school day that is as carefree as possible. School closures must therefore not be allowed.”
Like other European countries, Germany is also planning a major fall vaccination campaign to administer a second booster dose to try and mitigate what is expected to be another infection wave to come.
🇺🇸 🦠
Children who had a COVID infection were more likely to experience a wide range of debilitating and possibly life-threatening health conditions than those who had never been infected. That is the finding of a new report from the American Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. The study involved almost 800,000 kids 17 years old or younger who had a confirmed coronavirus infection and over two-million children who had not been infected. The cases were followed for up to a year to monitor their health.
While the study has limitations, but it found children who had a COVID infection were more likely to have myocarditis and cardiomyopathy, swelling and disease of the heart muscle, type 1 diabetes, and acute and unspecified renal failure (kidney failure). They are also more likely to suffer long-COVID symptoms like respiratory issues, muscle disorders, neurological conditions, and sleeping disorders.
Data visualization courtesy of Dr. Tyler Black/Twitter
The CDC study, which can be found HERE, said that prevention strategies include getting children vaccinated to prevent infection and subsequent illness.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada updates COVID statistics once a week on Fridays.
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Ontario has had two of its deadliest back-to-back weeks in its latest COVID infection wave. Over the last seven days, it is reporting 80 pandemic related deaths. The week before, the virus claimed 82 lives. COVID hospitalizations (1,474) dipped slightly (-18) while ICU numbers (139) inched upward (+1). The province has a positivity percentage of 13.7%.
Quebec is reporting 2,136 hospitalizations (-10), of which 725 are directly due to a coronavirus infection. Of those, there are 67 people in an ICU. The province also saw 18 more pandemic deaths. It has a positivity percentage of 9.78%.
In Newfoundland and Labrador there were 16 people hospitalized and two people were in intensive care; in each case, that is one fewer than the week previous. The province also saw four more virus deaths.
For the first time since early January, Nova Scotia has reported no new coronavirus deaths. There were 283 infected people in hospital, but only 33 of them were admitted directly due to COVID. Of those, eight were in intensive care.
In New Brunswick COVID hospitalizations (39) edged down (-1) while ICU numbers (5) crept upward (+2). The province also suffered four more virus deaths.
COVID hospitalizations edged upward in Manitoba, going from 45 to 53 from one week to the next. Intensive care admissions inched down, going from eight to seven. The province had six more corona deaths. It has a positivity percentage of 17.9%.
Saskatchewan has further reduced its COVID reporting. Its last update was July 16 and its next pandemic assessment isn’t due until August 18.
Alberta suffered eight more coronavirus deaths while hospitalizations (702) jumped (+52) while the number of severe cases in an ICU (28) crept up (+2). The province has a seven day positivity percentage of 22.3%.
BC is reporting 410 hospitalizations in the last week with 38 people in an ICU. The province suffered 28 more lives lost to the virus. It has a seven day positivity percentage of 6.86%.
🦠Monkeypox🦠
🇪🇺🦠
The number of monkeypox cases across Europe now exceeds 15,000, according to the latest snapshot from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Spain has the most cases of any European nation with 4,577. It is followed by the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, who each have over 2,000 confirmed infections. All but 466 of the monkeypox cases across Europe involve men between the ages of 18 and 60.
🇺🇸
On Thursday, the United States declare that the monkeypox outbreak was a national health emergency. This comes a few weeks after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global health crisis. The number of monkeypox infections is rocketing upward in the States, with almost 7,000 infections as of Wednesday.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇫🇮 🇸🇪/ 🇷🇺
Russians looking to get to Europe are finding a way around sanctions by crossing the borders into Finland and Norway. The two Scandinavian countries continue to issue tourist visas to Russian citizens. This has led to calls for change.
Norway’s Immigration Office confirmed to SchengenVisaInfo.com that the number of Russians crossing into Norway has more than doubled in the last two weeks of July. The office says there were 2,732 crossings from Russia into Norway in the last half of July, an increase from the 1,301 crossings in the two weeks prior. Norwegians in places like the border city of Kirkenes are noting a large number of cars with Russian registrations.
A similar story is playing out in Finland. In July alone, Finland issued over 10,000 tourist visas to Russians, who have then been able to use Finland as a springboard to get to other European destinations despite the sanctions.
On Thursday, the Finnish government announced it will review its practice of granting tourists visas to Russian citizens.
Foreign Affairs Minister Pekka Haavisto spoke to Yle to say that Finland plans to tighten its visa rules, but it cannot act alone.
“It is not enough for Finland to make such a decision [independently], we need to have the same rules throughout the Schengen area.”
Russia is already warning that it would take what it called “countermeasures” if tourist visas for Russian citizens are restricted.
🇸🇪 🇫🇮/ NATO
Seven more to go. France and Italy are among the latest countries to ratify Sweden and Finkand’s NATO applications making 23 NATO member countries to do so so far. All 30 NATO member nations have to ratify the accession protocols for Sweden and Finland to become full members of the military alliance.
France’s Foreign Affairs Minister Catherine Colonna:
“The accession of Sweden and Finland will make our NATO alliance stronger in defending our values, ways of life, and freedom against those who threaten them.”
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg:
“As the ancient Romans said: "If you want peace, you must plan for war." Deterrence prevents conflict. President Putin also believed that through the use of military force he would get less NATO near Russia's border. His stated goals and demands for NATO are that we should withdraw our forces, remove all military infrastructure, and not admit more member states. He has achieved the opposite. A stronger and more unified NATO, more agile and decisive. With more forces on the border. And Finland and Sweden, which will soon be full members of the alliance. This was their choice. So far, this has been the fastest accession process in NATO’s modern history. Their accession will strengthen NATO. It will strengthen defence cooperation in the Nordic region.”
🇩🇰/ 🇫🇮
While Sweden and Finland wait for the NATO ratification process to unfold efforts continue from NATO member countries to train with Swedish and Finnish armed forces. This week it is Denmark’s turn as Danish F-16s fighter jets are in Finland to train with Finnish F/A-18 Hornets. The training missions are being flown out of Rissala Air Base in Finland.
🇺🇸/ 🇫🇮
While Danish fighters work with Finnish forces in the air, the Americans are conducting navy exercises. The USS Kearsage, a Wasp-class amphibious assault ship, will arrive in Helsinki on Friday. It is transporting helicopters, amphibious assault vehicles, and about 2,000 marines and sailers. It will join the USS Arlington and USS Gunston Hall, along with components of the US Marine Corps, in exercises with the Finnish navy. The objective of the training is to develop interoperability and compatibility between the Finnish Navy, the United States Navy, and Marine Corps.
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
Three or four Russian warships will transit through Danish waters on Friday (today). The ships were taking part in a naval celebration in St. Petersburg and are now returning to their naval bases. It is expected the warships, including a submarine, will sail through the Great Belt today. The Danish military will keep an eye on the group either by escorting the Russian ships or via air surveillance.
🇨🇦 🇬🇧/ 🇺🇦
Canada is joining a UK effort to provide military training to Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. 225 Canadian soldiers will be headed to the United Kingdom to lend a hand to the ambitious training program. Thousands of Ukrainians, soldiers and civilians, will fly to the UK and take part in five week long military training courses. The Brits have committed to this training program for the next several months at least. The first batch of Ukrainians arrived to begin training in early July.
Defense Minister Anita Anand says Canadian troops will train the Ukrainians in front line combat skills, including weapon handling, patrol tactics, and battlefield first aid.