The Evening Report - Aug 23
Energy prices soar in Europe. Denmark’s COVID epidemic “under control”
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
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The European Commission says the continent is in its worst drought in 500 years as a new report from the EU’s Joint Research Center paints a grim picture. The agency says scorching heat waves have now pushed about half of Europe into a drought. The heat combined with a lack of rain has pushed many waterways to record low levels. The report says that by August 10, 47% of Europe had reached a drought threat level and the situation has only gotten worse since. The drought has impacted food and energy production as record low rivers kneecap hydroelectric production and the movement of goods including fuel for things like coal-fired power plants.
🇩🇰 🇪🇺
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen wants to build up wind energy capacity in the Baltic Sea and has invited other European power players to what is being called the ‘Baltic Energy Security Summit.’ Danish media outlet Altinget is reporting that the Prime Minister has sent out invitations to political leaders, energy ministers, and other high-ranking officials from Finland, Sweden, Germany, Poland, and the Baltics. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is also on the guest list.
The meeting is reported to take place August 30, on the Danish island of Bornholm.
Earlier this year, the Danish Prime Minister gathered with European leaders in Esbjerg for the largest European wind power investment ever. Wind energy production in the North Sea is to be exponentially ramped up.
Unlike the North Sea, wind energy production in the Baltic is pretty minimal. The EU Commission has the area assessed as “high potential” for wind energy production. Currently, just Denmark and Germany have wind turbines in the Baltic.
Wind energy production has undertaken new urgency in Europe as the EU looks to cut all energy reliance on Russian oil and gas.
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As Germany scrambles to upscale energy production to avoid a winter crisis, it is reactivating another coal-fired power plant. The Hayden power plant near Hanover will be fired back up next week and remain online until at least April next year, according to the energy company running the plant, Uniper. The plant is one of the largest in Germany with a production capacity of 875 megawatts.
As Russia weaponizes its energy exports and turns off the taps, countries like Germany who were very reliant on Russia for energy are scrambling to find other sources of power. The scramble has compromised some of its environmental goals as Germany had pledged to phase out its coal-fired power plants by 2038. Instead, it now finds itself reactivating them.
🇩🇪/ 🇨🇦
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in Canada on Tuesday to meet with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and secure Canadian energy exports. The two worked out a deal for hydrogen to go from Canada to Germany. However, conspicuous by its absence was any talk of Germany securing natural gas from Canada. Trudeau, when asked, seemed to rule the idea out citing the difficulty of building LNG plants to liquefy natural gas in central or eastern Canada. He said they would be too far from gas sources in western Canada to make a good business case for LNG exports from the east coast.
The first shipments of Canadian hydrogen would begin to flow to Germany in 2025.
🇪🇺⚡️
The dire state of Europe’s energy crisis came into stark focus on Tuesday when Bloomberg Energy Columnist Javier Blas posted an infographic on what he called “eye-watering” European electricity prices.
Prices were at record highs across most of the EU again. Blas notes that electricity prices in Germany have reached €600 MWh. For context, up until 2020 anything above €75 to €100 was considered pretty expensive.
In the Nordics, Blas says by Wednesday the price of electricity will for the first time ever surpass €400 per MWh. From 1996 to 2021, electricity prices averaged around €32 MWh.
🦠Pandemic🦠
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“Things are under control.”
Denmark’s Health Minister Magnus Heunicke took to social media on Tuesday to provide an update on the COVID epidemic. He says the contact number, or reinfection rate, or R0, has dipped to 0.7 from last weeks 0.8.
Heunicke says COVID wastewater surveillance also shows decreasing rates of coronavirus activity across all five Danish regions.
Other pandemic indicators, including the COVID incidence rate as measured by PCR tests over the last week have also followed the downward trend.
He says even pandemic related new admissions have been steadily dropping since mid-August.
Heunicke adds that infections among vulnerable seniors in care have also declined week to week. The same can also be said for pandemic deaths among residents of senior care homes.
“All in all, the epidemic is in a good place ahead of vaccination efforts in care homes and among particularly vulnerable elderly people, which we expect to be able to start in September. In short, things are under control.”
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Denmark reported 1,167 COVID infections (underreported), including 329 reinfections, and six more coronavirus deaths in the last day.
With 8,156 PCR tests taken on Monday, that equals a positivity percentage of 14.30%. The seven-day positivity percentage is 19.18%.
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COVID hospitalizations (383) dropped (-21) while the number of severely infected people in an ICU (12) edged downward (-1) and of those, the number on a ventilator (5) was unchanged. Infection admissions to a psychiatric facility (68) dipped slightly (-2).
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The Swedish Public Health Agency only updates its COVID statistics once a week, every Thursday.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency has tabled an eleventh set of possible pandemic scenarios charting epidemic estimates from now until mid-November. The health agency is anticipating that the current COVID infection wave will leak around the end of September. It urged people to get vaccinated especially for those most at risk, especially seniors and vulnerable populations. The agency also cautioned employers to brace for increases in employees being out sick.
In the two scenarios, both students returning to school and people heading back to work after summer vacation fuel infection spread. It also notes that these scenarios are very uncertain due to the COVID “dark rate” or infections not detected by PCR testing. Sweden’s “dark rate” is immense as it restricts testing to just seniors in care and people being admitted to hospital.
Department Head Sara Byfors:
“Several factors make the scenarios more uncertain than before. What we see is that the spread of the infection is expected to increase until the end of September. How high the peak will be is difficult to say, but it is unlikely that it would reach the same levels as it did in January and February. The most important thing is that people in high-risk groups and those who are 65 years or older get vaccinated and get their booster doses to reduce the risk of severe infections and death.”
In the first pandemic scenario, the healthcare agency assumes that people’s social contacts remain the same as they are now. In this scenario, it estimates that at the peak of the current infection wave, daily cases will reach 5,000.
The second scenario, it estimates that people’s social contacts increase by about 10%. In this case, peak daily cases will reach approximately 7,000.
The public health agency also notes that increased infection spread will result in more hospitalizations, but it doesn’t provide any estimates as to what numbers it might be expecting. It adds that it does not see any need to reintroduce any restrictions. But the authority does emphasize preventive measures are still advised.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency is launching a tenth national survey to try and determine how widespread Omicron variant infections have saturated through the population. Participants will be tested to see if they have coronavirus antibodies. The agency says 7,000 people will be invited to participate, but it adds vaccinated or previously infected people who may not have been invited are welcome to volunteer to join. The Swedish Armed Forces have been enlisted to help collect samples from participants homes.
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Hospitalizations in Sweden’s capital region have hit a plateau. Region Stockholm says there are 260 COVID patients in hospital, the same as there were the week before. There are also three severely infected people in an ICU.
It is roughly an even split between people being hospitalized directly because of a coronavirus infection and those seeking hospital care for another non-pandemic reason but who happen to be infected. Unvaccinated people continue to make a disproportionate number of hospital admissions.
Chief Physician Johan Bratt:
“The number of COVID patients who need hospital care is now at some kind of plateau and we see no signs of either a clear rise or fall. In the scenarios presented by the Public Health Agency, there is concern about an increase in infections with a feared peak during late September. The time from when you are exposed to infection until you become ill yourself is usually 5–7 days. After that, it takes some more time before the illness becomes so serious that you need hospital care. Therefore, it is still too early to draw conclusions about how the infection spread has been affected by the return to school and work after the summer.”
Bratt is urging people to get vaccinated to protect themselves from severe infections, hospitalizations, and death.
In the last week, the region has recorded another 1,854 infections (underreported). Of those, 89 were among seniors in care.
The region also suffered 36 more pandemic fatalities, of which six were elderly seniors in care. As has been the case for most of the year, the region adds that Sweden continues to struggle with a backlog of reporting pandemic deaths.
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Germany registered 60,411 new infections and 146 more pandemic deaths in its Tuesday update.
It added another 1,628 COVID hospitalizations, while ICU numbers (990) ease slightly (-3). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country, coronavirus patients are using 4.7%.
On the vaccination front, 77.9% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 76.3% have two doses, and 62% have a booster dose.
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German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach says it will now be much easier for vulnerable seniors to get the COVID treatment pill Paxlovid. Lauterbach says family doctors can now dispense the pill themselves without having to send people to a pharmacy to pick it up.
“Paxlovid reduces corona mortality in the elderly by up to 90%. It is used far too little.”
The health minister says family doctors can also now make a coronavirus infection diagnosis by phone and then if Paxlovid treatment is deemed necessary, then the drug can be couriered directly to the impacted person’s house.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada updates its pandemic numbers once a week every Friday.
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The Canadian government has exercised a contractual option to purchase 4.5 million doses of Moderna’s newly formulated bivalent COVID vaccine. It has also pushed forward the delivery of 1.5 million doses of the vaccine targeting the Omicron variant that will now be delivered this year instead of next. The pharmaceutical company said it has also reached a deal with the Canadian government to convert six million vaccine doses already under contract from the old to the new bivalent formula.
Health Canada has yet to approve the bivalent vaccine for use.
Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel:
“We thank the Government of Canada for their trust in our mRNA technology and our next-generation bivalent COVID-19 vaccine platform. As we have seen throughout this pandemic, the Government of Canada continues to take important steps in preparing for the winter season and protecting its people against Omicron.”
🇺🇦 💉
The global COVAX vaccine initiative has delivered 100,000 doses of the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine to Ukraine.
🇯🇵
Japan is currently seeing by far the highest number of confirmed daily coronavirus infections. In the last two days, it has reported almost 400,000 new infections and close to 500 pandemic deaths.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇫🇮/ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺
The European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs is opposed to a blanket ban on issuing tourist visas to Russians. Joseph Borrell says he does not support such a ban despite support from Ukraine, the Baltic states, and Nordic countries like Finland and Denmark.
“More than 300,000 Russians have fled their country because they do not want to live under Putin's rule. Should we close the door on these Russians? I don't think that's a good idea.”
Finland is pushing for the EU to support a Europe-wide approach to banning visas for Russian tourists who are crossing into Finland and then using it as a springboard to other European vacation spots. Finnish authorities will begin next month in severely restricting Russian citizens from accessing tourist visa appointments. But, Finland says barring an EU-wide policy, they are prevented from enacting anything stronger enforcement.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺 🇹🇷
Finland’s President gave a disquieting speech at an Ambassadors conference this week. Sauli Niinistö touched on several important topics including that the relationship between his country and Russia has irrevocably changed.
“Under the prevailing circumstances, there is not much left of our earlier relationship with Russia. The trust is gone, and there is nothing in sight on which to base a new beginning. This is not the right time to build connections. On the contrary: we must very carefully reconsider any dependencies that could be used against us. Nothing must be left loose.”
Niinistö also warned that while the war is currently taking place in Ukraine, there is still a danger it could spread even further.
“Our position has become stronger, but the world situation is increasingly disquieting. The war, currently limited within the borders of Ukraine, may spread. Other conflicts, competing over the global attention of NATO countries, may also emerge in other parts of the world – say, in the Pacific. If, at that point, someone were to begin measuring for real how the Nordic countries and Europe will hold, that would also put Finland to a very concrete test.”
And he also cautioned that it isn’t just the war in Ukraine, Russia’s actions are having a spillover effect that has triggered secondary crises.
“Russia’s war in Ukraine is reflected as global instability on all continents. In the coming months, the energy crisis will test the resilience of Europe, and the impacts of the food crisis are already affecting product selection and prices. But the acute distress experienced by already fragile societies outside Europe is much higher than ours. When basic needs are not met, unrest will grow and the turmoil will not stop at national borders. Stopping this spiral is a major challenge for the whole international system.”
Niinistö said that 23 of the 30 NATO member countries have ratified the application to join the alliance filed by both Finland and Sweden. But they need all 30 onboard to become members and one country, Turkey, continues to play games as it seeks to turn the situation to its advantage.
“The demands presented by Türkiye in May came very close to halting the progress of our entire NATO membership process. In Madrid, we eventually found a solution that enabled it to go forward. For its own part, Finland will stand by what was agreed with Sweden and Türkiye. We will do so in accordance with our own legislation and with international agreements. The discussion on closer security cooperation will continue with Türkiye and Sweden between officials before the turn of the month. Time will tell, when Türkiye will be ready to go forward with the national ratification. We still need patience.”
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
Danish industrial giant Danfoss has taken a big financial hit by saying goodbye to its business in Russia. After the invasion of Ukraine, Danfoss, like many other western businesses, severed all business ties with Russia. The group put its Russian assets up for sale and pulled out of the market. The companies operating profit sank from €570 million down to €298 million.
CEO Kim Fausing:
“The conditions for doing business have been challenging, but we have nevertheless managed to maintain our strong growth momentum. At the same time, we have kept the integration of the hydraulics business well on track.”
🇩🇪/ 🇺🇦
Germany has announced another military aid package for Ukraine worth some €500 million. Included among the weapons headed to the Ukrainian military are Iris-T air defense systems, a dozen armoured vehicles, anti-drone devices, precision ammunition, and 20 mounted rocket launchers.
Germany had faced significant criticism earlier this year for dragging its heels on getting weapons to Ukraine and then promising them and following up by being incredibly slow in actually making deliveries. Something seems to have changed as the flow of weapons from Germany to Ukraine has reportedly increased.
🇸🇪/ 🇺🇦
Reports say that Sweden is preparing to table another comprehensive military aid package for Ukraine. No firm details yet.
🇪🇪/ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺
Estonia is pushing for a blanket ban on all Russian energy exports as the European Union debates how another package of sanctions might look.
Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu:
“We must seriously raise the price of the war for the aggressors before winter. The seven previous packages proved insufficient to push Putin to end the war.”