The Evening Report - Aug 18
COVID numbers rise in Denmark. Increasing Global pandemic deaths “unacceptable”
Apologies for missing Tuesday’s edition. We got caught in the back to school plague and I was too sick to tackle the newsletter. Feeling much better now though.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
For the 3rd straight week, the COVID contact number or R0, is 0.8 in Denmark. Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke says this “continues to indicate that the epidemic is slowing down.”
Heunicke says COVID wastewater surveillance shows increasing virus activity in Region Nordjylland and Region Midtjylland. In the other three regions, coronavirus rates are “leveling off.”
The Staten Serum Institute is also now reporting variant specific concentrations in the COVID wastewater surveillance. It says overall, BA.5 is dominant, but in East and West Jutland BA.2.12.1 has been showing up. While BA.2 has been detected in West and South Sjælland.
The health minister adds that infection activity among vulnerable seniors in care is decreasing. He emphasizes that vaccination efforts to administer a 2nd booster dose, including among senior care home residents, will begin on September 15 “to be ready for the expected increase in infections in the winter.”
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COVID numbers in Denmark increased again last week. The latest weekly pandemic assessment from the Staten Serum Institute states that infection numbers last week (underreported) rose by 18% compared to the week before, which saw a 12% increase. The positivity percentage also jumped last week, going from 25% to 27% from one week to the next. PCR testing increased by 5% week to week.
SSI Professional Director Tyra Grove Krause:
“The increasing infection must be seen in the light of the fact that people are now returning from summer holidays. Activity in our society is increasing, and people may also be more aware of getting tested for symptoms in connection with returning to work and going back to school.”
The COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people has increased across all five Danish regions but is highest in Region Midtjylland (262) followed by Region Sjælland (216). The positivity percentage also rose in all regions except Region Sjælland where it was unchanged week to week.
Looking at the pandemic by age group, the COVID incidence rate is highest among those 40 to 59 years old (288) followed by 60 to 69 year olds (248). The positivity percentage increased across most age groups, with the exception of infants two years old and under where it fell, and among three to five year olds and 70 to 79 years old where it was stable. The highest positivity percentage was among 50 to 59 year olds (31%) followed by those 40 to 49 years of age (30%).
COVID hospitalizations also crept upward last week, increasing by 4%, with 548 new pandemic admissions (+22). Seniors 70 to 89 years old continue to make up the highest number of new admissions. ICU admissions also increased, going from 13 in week 31 to 18 in week 32.
The proportion of those hospitalized directly because of a COVID infection (58%) increased week to week compared to those who were infected but needing hospital care for a non-pandemic reason (42%).
If there is any sliver of hopeful news, it is that pandemic deaths declined last week with 64 lives lost compared to 80 the week before.
Among vulnerable seniors in care, the population tested the most in Denmark; the number of infections (131), positivity percentage (4%), and fatalities (18) all declined week to week, although the testing rate did as well. Even the number of seniors in care being hospitalized due to an infection also dropped last week by more than half, with 20 admissions (-21).
Conversely, infection activity rose among senior care home staff along with a rise in testing numbers. COVID cases among hospital staff also are on the rise.
On the variant front, BA.5 is still dominant, making up about 95% of all sequenced positive test results last week. However, that includes all BA.5 variants, and a closer look shows several sub-variants racing to outpace each other BA.5.1 (25.71%), BA.5.2 (22.88%), and BA.5.2.1 (20.88%). The feared BA.2.75 variant that blew up in India is just spinning its wheels in Denmark, confirmed in just three cases last week. BA.4.6, a variant sparking concern in the United States, is also not doing much of anything confirmed in 11 cases last week with zero growth for four weeks now.
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COVID hospitalizations (421) dipped (-9) while the number of severe coronavirus cases in an ICU (13) also dropped slightly (-4) of those, the number on a ventilator (5) is unchanged. Infection admissions to a psych facility (82) are also unchanged.
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Denmark reported 1,458 COVID infections (underreported), including 457 reinfections, and three more coronavirus deaths in the last day.
With 8,525 PCR tests taken yesterday, it equals a positivity percentage of 17.10%, the 7 day positivity percentage is 25.12%.
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A new Danish study has tracked the declining level of immune protection offered by having a COVID infection since the pandemic began. The Staten Serum Institute study focused on PCR testing in the first half of the pandemic. Up until the spring of 2022, Denmark had administered more than 60 million PCR tests. By reviewing those results to measure how often someone was infected and then reinfected through to the spring of 2021 when the Delta variant arrived. From there, the institute began to focus just on the unvaccinated population as Delta gave way to Omicron. Ultimately, it says results in the second half are more uncertain due to the dwindling number of unvaccinated people in Denmark. Late last year the Director of the Danish National Health Board referred to the number of unvaccinated people as being so small they were “statistically insignificant.”
The study found in the first half of the pandemic for most of the population having an infection resulted in an immune protection of 83% against infection. However, among seniors 65 years old and older the protection was reduced to 70.2%. The SSI also noted variations in immune protection depending on whether someone had a symptomatic or non-symptomatic infection. People with COVID who had symptoms developed stronger antibody protection than those who were symptomatic.
Senior Researcher Steen Ethelberg:
“Based on the very large number of tests that have been carried out in Denmark, we were able to calculate that the natural immunity after a corona infection in the first part of the epidemic was approximately 83% on average - which roughly corresponds to the protection then in the population after vaccination.”
The antibody protection was reduced when Delta arrived and then again when the Omicron variant exploded, reducing it to 51% according to the study. That protection waned even further the longer period of time there was between vaccine doses. Having a last dose a year ago saw immune protection plunge to just 19%.
“We were able to ascertain that protection against infection was lower against new virus variants, and in particular Omicron, which had relatively free rein in terms of infection when it appeared. And it could also infect people who had already been infected with one of the" old” virus variants. But even if a previous infection did not protect so well against a new infection, fortunately there was still good protection against severe infections.”
The published study can be found in full HERE.
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The Staten Serum Institute’s sentinel surveillance system shows that respiratory infections jumped last week to 39%, up from 24% the week before. Other than coronavirus, parainfluenza and rhinovirus were the two most common respiratory infections in the country last week.
🇸🇪
The Swedish Public Health Agency only updates its COVID statistics once a week, every Thursday.
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In the last week, Sweden has added 6,947 infections (wildly underreported) and another 154 corona deaths.
To date, 87.3% of the population 12 years old and older have one vaccine dose, 85.2% have two, and of those 18 years old and older, 66.6% have a booster dose.
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Sweden’s pandemic situation remains foggy due to its lack of testing, but COVID deaths continue to march upward. The Swedish Public Health Agency says infection numbers (wildly underreported) dropped slightly last week with 5,750 coronavirus infections (-2%). Keep in mind Sweden restricts PCR testing to just seniors in care and people being admitted to hospital.
Among vulnerable seniors in care, there were “slightly fewer” COVID cases last week, according to the healthcare agency. But it adds that infections were also up a little for seniors receiving home care. In neither case does it provide numbers.
There were 16 new ICU admissions last week. There was an average of 17 in the three weeks prior.
92 more lives were lost to the coronavirus in Sweden in week 30 (two weeks ago). This compares to an average of 76 in each of the three previous weeks. Again, the majority of pandemic deaths (51) were elderly seniors either in care or receiving home care.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency is warning that as summer holidays end and students return to school and adults get back to work, it will mean an increase in respiratory infections, including coronavirus.
The agency reminds people that if they are sick or have symptoms that might be COVID then they should stay home. It also emphasizes that vaccines offer the best protection against hospitalization and death. Currently, Sweden recommends everyone over the age of 12 should get vaccinated.
Department Head Sara Byfors:
“The purpose of the vaccinations is to protect against serious illness and death from COVID. Even if there are new virus variants so that the vaccines protect less well against infection spread, they still provide very good protection against severe coronavirus infections. So it is wise to get vaccinated.”
Byfors says anyone who is refusing to get vaccinated or cannot get vaccinated for medical reasons should avoid crowds and large gatherings, especially if they are indoors.
“Children and adults can return to work, school, preschool, and leisure activities once they have recovered. Sometimes various residual symptoms from the respiratory tract can remain for some time after the infection, even in those who have recovered, from such things as whooping cough and the common cold.”
Sweden is seeing a mounting COVID wave, but its true impact cannot be determined as it restricts PCR testing only to seniors in care and those being admitted to hospital. Byfors notes it is unusual to see infections increasing in the warm summer months with the seasonal affect working for us. So what lies ahead this fall and winter?
“It is too early to say what the COViD spread might look like in the autumn. But we already know that more people get respiratory infections in connection with the return to work, school and preschool after the summer holidays.”
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Changing viral gears, the Swedish Public Agency is now recommending pregnant women be vaccinated against whooping cough. The purpose is to better protect newborns until they can be vaccinated themselves.
Health Investigator Johanna Rubin:
“This is both a safe choice for the pregnant woman and provides good protection for the newborn baby. The vaccine against whooping cough is well tested and has shown few side effects.”
The agency says in order for the strongest possible protection to be passed from mother to child, the vaccination must be administered well before birth, ideally around week 16 of pregnancy.
In Sweden, a child has to be at least three months old to get vaccinated against whooping cough as part of the national childhood vaccination program. Whooping cough can develop into a serious and sometimes life threatening infection among infants.
🇳🇴
Norway added 983 infections (underreported) and another 56 pandemic deaths in the last week.
In the last week, COVID hospitalizations (198) are up (+22).
80.5% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one dose, 75% have two, and 55.8% have a booster dose. These numbers haven’t changed much in many weeks.
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In its latest bi-weekly COVID report, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health says the pandemic is in a “calm phase” although it cautioned the virus remains “unpredictable.
The institute warns of more infection waves to come especially as the fall and winter months approach and summer vacations end and people return to work and school. It says booster doses are being offered to seniors 65 years old and older, care home residents, and other vulnerable populations.
“Otherwise, society, including nurseries, schools, colleges, and universities, can continue with normal everyday life without their own infection control measures against COVID.”
COVID hospitalizations in Norway increased by 10% last week compared to the week before. Currently, it is reporting 192 hospitalizations last week after 174 the week previous. ICU admissions are trending in the other direction, with nine last week, down from 14 in each of the previous two weeks.
Pandemic deaths also declined, with 48 lives lost last week after seeing 60 the week prior. Coronavirus deaths in Norway have been dropping for four consecutive weeks.
COVID wastewater surveillance shows dropping virus activity in the area covered where about 30% of the population lives.
For the last four weeks, the number of COVID-related visits to a family doctor or emergency room has also been dropping.
The BA.5 variant is king in Norway, accounting for 92% of all sequenced positive test results. The health institute notes it has confirmed Norway’s first case involving the BA.2.75 variant. The agency’s assessment is that “this variant has the potential to take over for BA.5.”
🇫🇮
Finland registered 11,559 infections and 117 more virus deaths since its last update last Thursday.
COVID hospitalizations (716) crept upward (+10).
So far, 80.3% of the total population have one dose, 77.3% have two, 54% have a booster, and 10.9% have 2nd booster
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It appears the Finnish Institute for Health has thrown in the towel on its COVID reporting. It used to issue regular updates and a weekly situation update. In both cases they have been conspicuously absent for weeks now.
🇩🇪
Germany recorded 58,685 new infections on Wednesday and 184 more coronavirus deaths.
It added 1,420 more COVID hospitalizations while ICU numbers (1,074) dipped (-56). As a percentage of all intensive care beds in the country pandemic patients are using 5%.
To date, 77.9% of the population have had one dose, 76.3% have two, and 61.9% have a booster shot.
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Germany has expanded eligibility for another COVID vaccine booster dose. On Thursday, the Standing Vaccination Commission (STIKO) issued new recommendations that people 60 years old and older are also now able to get a second booster dose. Up until this point, the booster dose campaign was aimed at seniors 70 years old and older and vulnerable and high-risk populations.
The only requirement STIKO places on getting another booster dose is that the last one, or a previous infection, must have been at least six months ago. In some cases involving high-risk populations, the interval could be four months.
Health Minister Karl Lauterbach:
“I'm glad that the STIKO took this important step today, which I think was due. The number of cases and deaths is still too high, but the vaccines available in Germany reliably protect against death and serious illness. I strongly advise citizens over 60 to follow the advice and not wait for the new vaccines."
WHO 🦠
In its latest global pandemic update, the World Health Organization says over the last four weeks global COVID deaths have increased by 35%. Just in the last week alone, 15,000 lives have been lost.
WHO Director Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus:
“This is completely unacceptable, when we have all the tools to prevent infections and save lives. With colder weather approaching in the northern hemisphere and people spending more time indoors, the risks for more intense transmission and hospitalization will only increase in the coming months, not only for COVID, but for other diseases including influenza. There is a lot of talk about learning to live with the coronavirus. But we cannot live with 15,000 deaths a week.”
Dr. Tedros also continued to urge countries to ramp COVID testing and sequencing back up so that we aren’t navigating the pandemic with blinders on.
“The number of sequences shared per week has fallen by 90% since the beginning of this year, and the number of countries sharing sequences has dropped by 75%, making it so much harder to understand how the virus might be changing.”
🇬🇧
The United Kingdom became the first country to approve a new bivalent COVID vaccine for use. It gave the green-light to the updated Moderna vaccine that targets both the original coronavirus and an Omicron variant, in this case the parent BA.1 strain. Moderna says the bivalent vaccine “elicited potent neutralizing antibody responses” against both the BA.4 and BA.5 variants.
The newly formulated vaccine is approved for use in the UK for people 18 years old and older.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency Canada updates COVID statistics once a week every Friday.
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The Public Health Agency of Canada is reviewing bivalent vaccines being produced by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna. The upgraded COVID vaccines are designed to tackle both the original coronavirus strain as well as the Omicron variant.
The agency says it received an application for use from Moderna for its bivalent vaccine in late June, while Pfizer applied for approval in late July.
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A deadly week in Ontario as it recorded 56 pandemic deaths. COVID hospitalizations (1,328) dropped (-54) while ICU numbers (137) edged down (-5). The province has a positivity percentage of 14.7%, a week-to-week increase.
Quebec is reporting 2,011 hospitalizations (-45), of which 682 are directly due to a coronavirus infection. Of those, there are 45 people in an ICU (-10). The province also saw 16 more pandemic deaths. It has a positivity percentage of 8.9%.
In Newfoundland and Labrador there are 18 people hospitalized (+4) and one in intensive care (-1). The province suffered another four deaths.
Nova Scotia registered another 11 fatalities this week. There were 50 infected people in hospital and seven were in intensive care.
In New Brunswick COVID hospitalizations (22) crept up (+2) with two people in an ICU. The province also suffered five more virus deaths.
COVID hospitalizations are headed upward in Manitoba, with 79 (+22) Intensive care admissions (19) also rose (+7). The province also suffered 14 more deaths. It has a positivity percentage of 23.8%, another week over week increase.
Saskatchewan has finally tabled a COVID update covering a period from July 17 to August 13. Hospitalizations (488) have rocketed up (+223) ICU numbers (27) are also up (+9). There have been 27 more pandemic deaths. The province’s positivity percentage has jumped from 4% to 7.4%.
Alberta suffered 27 more coronavirus deaths while hospitalizations (818) have jumped again (+70) the number of severe cases in an ICU (28) is unchanged. The province has a seven day positivity percentage of 22.3%.
BC is reporting 366 hospitalizations in the last week (-19) with 22 people in an ICU (-1). The province suffered 24 more virus deaths. It has a seven day positivity percentage of 5.15%.
🦠Monkeypox🦠
WHO
The World Health Organization says there are now more than 35,000 cases of monkeypox around the world, along with 12 deaths. Last week, there were almost 7,500 cases reported, which was 20% more than the week before.
It says the outbreak continues to be highly concentrated in Europe and North America.
🇩🇰
10,000 monkeypox vaccine doses ordered from Bavarian Nordic arrived in Denmark this week. The Staten Serum Institute says the doses were checked in and put into freezer storage at minus 80 degrees. From there there were divided between the five regions and delivered.
Health Minister Magnus Heunicke:
“The vaccines cannot stop the infection completely, but they can prevent serious illness and reduce further infection spread. The Staten Serum Institute continues to assess that the risk of infection in the general population as being low. We take the disease seriously and follow developments closely.”
🇩🇪
Germany has seen 3,213 total monkeypox infections, according to the Robert Koch Institute, the German health agency. It says the vast majority of those cases (3,201) were men, but 11 infections were women. There have been no deaths to date, but there have been 186 hospitalizations.
“The number of cases reported weekly has declined slightly since the beginning of August. However, the overall trend results from individual local trends, which still run very differently. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the decline in the number of cases will continue.”
The institute says a skin rash or lesions were the most common symptom followed by a fever.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada says to-date there have been 1,112 monkeypox infections confirmed across the country. The most are in Ontario (529) and Quebec (446) while BC (112) is the only other province with over 100 infections.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
“Russia’s invasion [of Ukraine] has changed the security situation.”
With that, Denmark’s Defense Minister announced on Thursday a potential investment of up to 40 billion Danish kroner (about $7 billion Cdn) to build warships at Danish shipyards. The initiative included a wide array of Danish industry to guarantee what was referred to as a “stronger security of supply.”
Defense Minister Morten Bødskov:
“With Russia's attack on Ukraine and the new European security situation, it is more important than ever that Denmark is able to defend itself. Here, security of supply plays a decisive role. It is crucial that the Armed Forces can obtain the material which is absolutely central to ensuring a strong, Danish defense. This applies not least at sea, where Denmark is one of the world's largest maritime nations.”
Bodskøv also opened the door to Denmark becoming a supplier of warships for other Nordic nations as well.
“Within the next number of years, the Norwegian Armed Forces are faced with having to replace a large number of ships. The new partnership must come up with recommendations so that the Danish maritime defense industry can share in these investments. For the benefit of the Danish defense industry, Danish workplaces and not least for Denmark's security.”
Anne H. Steffensen, managing director of Danske Rederier, has been appointed as chair of this new partnership bridging the public and private sector.
“We are a large maritime nation with a strong maritime industry, both by virtue of our civilian merchant fleet and our navy, which have always had a close interaction. In the coming years, we must strengthen the navy, as a crucial part of Denmark's defense. A close public-private partnership is the right way to go. In Denmark, we have many competencies that can and must be used when new ships are to be developed and built. As chairman of the new partnership, I look forward to making recommendations on how we can best and on reasonable terms support the needs of the Armed Forces in the maritime area.”
Other members of the partnership include Dansk Industri and Dansk Metal. The groups first job will be to prepare an analysis of the Danish navy’s needs and concrete recommendations to address them. Key to that will be ensuring that Denmark can fill the needs required for long term procurement including everyone needed to design, build, and maintain warships.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Two Russian fighter jets are suspected of violating Finnish airspace on Thursday morning. The Finnish Ministry of Defense identified the jets as Russian MIG-31 type fighters. It says the incursion happened in the Gulf of Finland off of Porvoo. Finnish fighters were scrambled to intercept and identify. The ministry says the incident is now under investigation.
🇪🇪/ 🇷🇺
Estonia will remove all Soviet monuments in public places, according to Prime Minister Kaja Kallas
“Soviet monuments with historic value will be removed to the museum, not demolished. We try to preserve as much as possible, so that future generations can learn from those painful lessons.”
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Estonia’s Undersecretary for Digital Transformation Luukas IIves says the country was hit by the most extensive cyber attacks since 2007. He says the DDoS attacks targeted both the public and private sectors.
“The attacks were ineffective. E-Estonia is up and running. Services were not disrupted. With some brief and minor exceptions, websites remained fully available throughout the day. The attack has gone largely unnoticed in Estonia.”
In 2007, a massive cyber attack knocked pretty much the whole country offline causing chaos. Since then, Estonia it has done incredible work to become one of the most adept nations in Europe at cyber security.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
The Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs is placing strict caps on the number of tourist visas available for Russian citizens. As of September 1, the number of visa application appointments available to Russians each day will be cut in half, from 1,000 down to 500. On top of that, tourism visas will have a quota of 20%. The ministry says this will reduce available appointments for Russians seeking tourist visas down to 100 per day, just 10% of the current number.
The Finnish Foreign Affairs Ministry reiterated in a release that it would prefer that a solution to banning tourism visas for Russians come at the EU level. It says it supports “the complete suspension” of existing visa agreements between the EU and Russia.
It is worth noting, the ministry also adds that it has been directed by the Finnish government to table proposals for a national humanitarian visa and to launch a review of national sanctions legislation.
🇱🇹/ 🇷🇺
Lithuania has stopped issuing visas to Russian tourists according to Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. He says Lithuania will now only issue visas to Russian citizens for humanitarian reasons.
🇩🇰/ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺
It is a hard ‘No’ from Denmark’s Foreign Affairs minister to Russian tourists being allowed to holiday in Europe.
Jeppe Kofod spoke to Ritzau:
“I think it is deeply shameful that Russian tourists can sunbathe and live in the hustle and bustle of Southern Europe, while Ukrainian cities are bombed beyond recognition.”
Kofod is hoping any decision to ban tourist visas being issued to Russians will come as a European decision. If that doesn’t happen he adds that he would support restricting Russian tourists in Denmark.
“We will push for a joint European solution when we meet here at the end of the month. It will, of course, have the greatest effect if there is a common front on the part of Europe.”
If an EU-level position cannot be reached then it will be up to Denmark’s Immigration and Integration Minister Kaare Dybvad Bek to table any Danish restrictions if that is the result of political negotiations in Christiansborg.
🇩🇰/ 🇮🇸
Danish F-16s have been deployed to Iceland to begin patrolling Icelandic airspace as part of NATO’s mission to secure the skies there. The fighters will be based out of Keflavik Air Base and will be on the job in Iceland until their rotation ends in mid-September.
🇸🇪 🇫🇮 🇹🇷
According to Swedish news organization Aftonbladet, the Swedish government has invited both Finland and Turkey for what it called a “top-level meeting” on the NATO agreement reached between the three countries.
Turkey continues to stonewall the NATO application for both countries after agreeing to the pact and then almost immediately began again threatening to veto the Scandinavian applications. Turkey is pushing hard to use the situation for its own benefit.
🇳🇿/ 🇺🇦
New Zealand has become the latest country to join an international effort to provide military training to thousands of Ukrainian soldiers. New Zealand joins nearby Austrialia, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the Netherlands in providing an array of weapons and combat training in the UK. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov says 120 troops are headed from New Zealand to the United Kingdom to help out.
Denmark has also offered to open up another military training site for Ukrainian troops in Denmark.
🇨🇦 🇺🇦
Canada is sending Ukraine $450 million in aid for the specific purpose of buying gas for heating homes ahead of another cold winter to come as the war with Russia rages on.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal
"Another step of solidarity from our friend Canada.”