The Evening Report - April 5th.
Danish rapid tests have an alarming number of false negatives
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Bad news on the variant front in Denmark. Another two cases of the Brazilian P1 variant were confirmed over the weekend. Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke tweeted the 11th and 12th P1 variant infections to date are not linked to travel, indicating some level of possible community transmission. He says in both cases the people are quarantined.
Heunicke also said a further mutated U.K. COVID variant initially found in Great Britain has now been confirmed to be in Denmark for the first time. He says two infections have been found to have the U.K. variant with the E484K mutation, the so called escape mutation because it helps the virus evade the body’s natural defenses.
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Rapid tests fail to detect COVID almost half of the time according to the Staten Serum Institut. The agency surveyed 117,670 people who received both a PCR and the rapid anti-gen coronavirus test within a 48 hour period. Of the 4,069 PCR positive test results the rapid tests only caught 2,159 of them, or about 47%. So 1,910 people who received a negative rapid test result were actually infected with COVID.
SSI Acting Academic Director Tyra Grove Krause.
"You can look at the antigen test as a very broad screen. It catches the most contagious, but not all those who can potentially have COVID and be infectious. Therefore, we consider the antigen test as a screening tool, an extra tool but not the tool, for finding and fighting the coronavirus.”
To add to the uncertainty, Krause says 45% of the people who test positive with a rapid test do not in fact have the virus.
“Therefore, it is very important that everyone who gets a positive result from an antigen test, should get a PCR test as soon as possible, so that they make sure that they are in fact infected. It is only after the subsequent positive PCR test that we call it a confirmed case.”
This is also stated in the Danish Health and Medicines Authority's recommendation that a positive rapid test must always be followed with a PCR test taken on the same day or by no later than the next day.
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Denmark’s National Health Board is concerned that, as of Tuesday, demands for a COVID test result could overwhelm its online portal.
As the lockdown eases again for most of the country beginning Tuesday, a negative COVID test, proof of vaccination, or immunity due to having had the coronavirus, will be a passport into a hair salon, etc. It already is for places like LEGOLand in Billund. The health ministry is asking for people to be patient after getting tested and only check for a result when prompted to do so by a ministry text message.
While we wait for the digital corona passport to arrive, you can check your negative test online at sundhed.dk or via the app ‘MinSundhed.’
There are three ways to access many businesses, eateries, activity centers etc..
Negative test result (either PCR or rapid) no more than 72 hours old.
Documentation of a previous COVID infections, two to 12 weeks after a positive test.
Proof of being fully vaccinated.
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Denmark is reporting 479 COVID infections and one coronavirus death in the last 24 hours. Yesterday there were 133,507 PCR corona tests done for a positivity percentage of 0.36%.
Over the Easter weekend there were 2,532 total infections (708 Friday, 745 Saturday, 600 Sunday, and today), as well as seven total fatalities.
COVID hospitalizations (220) are up (+9), the number in an ICU (40) also edged up (+1), and the number of people on a ventilator (28) also inched upward (+1).
On the vaccination front to date, 777,103 1st dose vaccinations (13.3% of the population) have been administered while 407,870 people (7%) are now fully vaccinated.
On Easter Sunday, 13,627 total vaccinations were administered across Denmark.
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Sweden will update its COVID numbers tomorrow for the first time since Thursday.
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Finland has registered 341 infections in the last 24 hours.
Since Thursday’s update it has added 1,631 total infections (566 Friday, 422 Saturday, 302 Sunday and today).
While Finland hasn’t yet updated its hospital numbers due to the Easter holidays, HUS Chief Medical Health Officer Markku Mäkijärvi told the Finnish public broadcaster, YLE, that the number of hospitalizations and patients in an ICU are dropping. He says this, along with a dropping number of infections, is providing a glimmer of hope in this latest infection wave.
“We’re delighted that there’s good news. The number of patients treated for coronavirus infections in hospitals has clearly started to decline. There are fewer people who are seriously ill. There are fewer coronavirus patients in need of hospital care.”
On the vaccination front to date, 974,153 1st dose vaccinations (17.5% of the population) have been administered, while 89,717 people (1.6%) are now fully vaccinated.
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Norway has added 2,426 infections and three corona deaths since Thursday’s update.
COVID hospitalizations (291) are up (+6), ICU numbers (98) are unchanged, and those on a ventilator (67) are up (+6) since Thursday.
On the vaccination campaign to date, 989,062 1st dose vaccinations (13.06% of the population) have been administered while 280,892 people (5.28%) are fully vaccinated.
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Germany is laying out a roadmap for fully vaccinated people to return to a more or less normal life free of coronavirus restrictions. German Health Minister Jens Spahn told the newspaper Bild am Sonntag that once the country exits its third infection wave anyone getting a second dose would be free of restrictions two weeks later. This would mean people who are fully vaccinated could go to eat at a restaurant, get their haircut, or go shopping all without having to show a negative COVID test.
Spahn added Germany is hoping to have 20% of its population vaccinated by the beginning of May.
Germany is reporting 9,679 infections and 55 more corona deaths so far today.
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Yesterday France reported 60,922 infections and 185 corona deaths deaths. However, about 19,000 of those infections were backlogged over the last few days due to a data issue. That said, infection numbers in France remain on an upward march.
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On Saturday morning two Molotov cocktails were thrown at the vaccination center in Brescia, Italy. Investigators are leaning toward domestic terrorism as a motive. The intention of the early morning firebombing was likely to burn the vaccination center down. Fortunately the damage was minimal, and as it wasn’t staffed at the time, no one was hurt. It reopened and resumed vaccinations that morning.
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Health Canada hasn’t updated its COVID numbers since Friday due to the Easter long weekend and reporting has also been sporadic across the provinces. Today we will begin to get a better idea of the COVID picture across Canada. It is known that total to date infections surpassed 1,000,000 over the holiday weekend, becoming the 23rd country on earth to do so.
On the vaccination front, 5,761,718 1st dose vaccinations (15.16% of the population) have been administered while 702,834 people are now fully vaccinated.
In Ontario, the variant wave continues to push infections up to numbers not seen in the province in months. According to Health Minister Christine Elliott, Ontario recorded 3,089 infections on Friday, 3,009 on Saturday, 3,041 on Easter Sunday, and another 2,938 today. She adds “As of 8:00 p.m. yesterday, 2,545,640 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been administered.”
As expected, hospital admissions are beginning to surge upward. The Ontario Hospital Association says there are now “482 patients in ICUs with COVID related critical illness on a total census of 1,800.44 new admissions yesterday.”
Quebec reported 1,252 new infections and four more virus deaths today. It is also levying new restrictions in the municipalities of Beauce-Sartigan, Bellechasse, Les Etchemins, Nouvelle-Beauce and Robert-Cliche as of tonight. Restaurants and non-essential businesses must close and an 8pm curfew will be in force.
In Atlantic Canada, New Brunswick recorded ten new infections today. Nova Scotia has three. Newfoundland and Labrador has yet to report.
Manitoba last reported on Saturday with 181 new infections and one more death.
There were 221 infections and three more deaths in Saskatchewan yesterday. There are 194 people in hospital with 44 in an ICU, the highest number so far in the pandemic.
The last update we have for Alberta was on April 3rd with 950 infections. 600 of them, or 38% of active cases, were “variants of concern.” Alberta will table several days worth of catch up data later today.
In B.C. there was a rare mini-weekend update and its not good. The province set two new daily infection records with 1,018 infections Thursday, and another 1,072 on Friday. Hospitalizations have also begun to rise. It is unclear if it will report again today or tomorrow.
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Elsewhere in the world there are alarming numbers. Yesterday India recorded its highest ever number of new infections with 103,793. This is the first time daily infections have ever exceeded 100,000. Virus deaths are also starting to rise with 477 yesterday. Look at that infection curve!
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There were some significant developments on the investigation into cases of severe blood clotting after receiving an AstraZeneca vaccination.
The United Kingdom’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency said it had 22 reports of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, an extremely rare brain clotting ailment, and 8 reports of other clotting events associated with low blood platelets out of a total of 18.1 million doses given. The agency says seven of those cases were fatal.
A report out of the Netherlands found five cases of post-vaccination thrombosis (severe blood clotting) among women aged 25 to 65 years old, all within seven to ten days after receiving an AstraZeneca vaccination.
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Pfizer issued a six month update with both clinical trial and real world results. In short, it contains a lot of good news. In clinical trials, there were zero hospitalizations among the vaccinated cohort while the placebo group had 32. In South Africa, the company is reporting zero overall infections among those vaccinated, which speaks to both overall efficacy and protection against the more contagious South African variant.