The Evening Report - April 11
March sets heat record. Sweden finds its COVID response lacking.
🍃Environment & Energy⚡️
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Make it ten months in a row. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service says that March 2024 was the hottest March on record. Record high ocean temperatures have also now been recorded for the 12th consecutive month.
The agency says the surface air temperature last month was 14.14°C, which is 0.73°C above the 1991 to 2020 March average. It was also 0.10°C hotter last month than the previous hottest March on record in 2016. Comparing it to the benchmark pre-industrial period of 1850 to 1900, March this year was 1.68°C warmer than the average temperature.
C3S Deputy Director Samantha Burgess:
“March 2024 continues the sequence of climate records toppling for both air and ocean surface temperatures, with the 10th consecutive record-breaking month. The global average temperature is the highest on record, with the past 12 months being 1.58°C above pre-industrial levels. Stopping further warming requires rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.’’
Last month, the global average sea surface temperature was also at a record-high level of 21.07°C, a shade above the 21.06°C recorded in February.
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Switzerland has not done enough to battle climate change. That is the ruling of the European Court of Justice this week in response to a case filed by a group of elderly women who said that seniors are more vulnerable to climate change, especially during heat waves. The European Court of Justice concurred ruling that Switzerland has failed its climate obligations under the European Convention, it doesn’t have sufficient regulations in place to reduce emissions, and has failed to reach its previous climate goals.
The court also dismissed two other climate cases including one filed by six young people from Portugal against 33 countries, which included Sweden, demanding the court order them to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. They had argued, among other things, that the country’s CO2 emissions were violating their right to life and health.
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What a difference a week makes. After battling snowmageddon just over a week ago, summer has now arrived in record early time in Southern Sweden. Malmö, Kristianstad, and Karlshamn, each recorded daily temperatures in excess of 10 degrees for five days in a row. That means as of April 6, they have met the requirement for what is called a meteorological summer. That beats the previous record of April 11, set in 2009, 2007, and 1989.
SVT meteorologist Marcus Sjöstedt:
“It is difficult to link this year's early arrival of summer to climate change, but it is clear that our world is getting warmer. The probability of summer arriving earlier increases in a warmer climate.”
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The European Union continues to fold to the demands of angry farmers. The EU is imposing tougher trade restrictions on food items exported from Ukraine. This was after angry protests by farmers from several European countries at the Ukrainian borders.
Ukraine will continue to have free access to the EU market, but with an "emergency brake" in the form of a tariff in case imports of things like eggs, oats, and honey, are higher than the average of the three previous years, in this case 2021 through 2023.
The changes have to be approved by the EU parliament.
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One of the planks of the green transition in Denmark is moving as many households as possible onto district heating but some 2,500 homes in Southern Odsherred on Sjælland seem to be out of luck. The local Kommune has suspended all work on district heating projects after what it calls “a serious miscalculation”. The number crunching error has resulted in construction costs for the district heating project leaping from 950 million kroner to 1.6 billion. The Kommune immediately stopped all work and it is not saying when or even if it might resume.
For readers outside of Denmark, district heating means that instead of having a water tank inside the home, hot water is distributed from a central facility. The incoming and outgoing water, and its temperature, is measured by a device in each house and then homeowners are billed on usage.
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Denmark’s efforts to turbocharge the green energy transition are running into a problem. The country is small and has a finite amount of land, land that is now involved in a tug of war between the needs of energy creation, food production, and extraction of important minerals.
In one example, an area near Silkeborg is being targeted by the municipality for a new energy park with wind turbines, solar cells, and maybe even a Power-to-X plant. However, Region Midtjylland has also jumped in saying the area is an important source of raw materials critical for building roads and other important infrastructure. The region recently rejected a proposal for a large solar cell farm near Herning because it was in an area containing valuable raw materials. The region points out that it is responsible for ensuring the supply of crucial raw materials, materials it notes are even needed for the establishment of green energy projects.
The tug of war on a scarce resource in Denmark, the land, will only grow in the future according to National Geological Surveys Manager Jakob Kløve Keiding.
“We are challenged with our areas. There is already great pressure on the land in Denmark, and the battle for the land will probably accelerate in the coming years and only become more intensive. This can cause major challenges in securing the various interests. We also see an example of this here in Region Midtjylland. We will very likely see more of that in the future.”
Keiding says the matter is complicated because as critical as the green energy transition is, access to raw materials is equally so.
“Although there are opportunities with recycling, we build more than we tear down. If we are to continue to cover the majority of the supply ourselves, we must continue the extraction of raw materials around Denmark.”
Rural Districts and Cities Minister Morten Dahlin won’t take a side.
“That is what we have to find out now. That is why we have entered into a dialogue about whether it is possible to both establish an energy park and still have areas for raw material extraction.”
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The effects of last October’s historic storm surge, which caused unprecedented flooding across Denmark, are still rippling out across the country. The flooding badly damaged or outright destroyed about 100 homes and summer houses near Præstø in Southern Sjælland. Those homeowners are looking to rebuild but wary of history repeating itself they have applied to the municipality to either raise the house foundation itself or to build a new home on piles to elevate them above any future flood waters. However, they have run into a wall at the Kommune because the current local plan doesn’t address this issue. The municipality is working on a new local plan but it likely won’t be completed until early next year.
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An investigation by Finnish media outlet Helsingin Sanomat has found that there are some pitfalls in the Finnish Government’s environmental policies. For example, the government cut fuel taxes, which translates into increases in vehicle emissions, with the government weighing that off with carbon capture initiatives meant to reduce those emissions in the distant future. The Finnish government also touted its environmental goals while at the same time opposing or looking to water down climate action measures from the EU.
Environment Minister Kai Mykkänen told the paper that he and his government are more interested in "divesting from fossil fuels rather than radical conservation measures". He also pointed to government efforts to increase hydroelectric power production and the easing of permit regulations on small-scale nuclear power plants as proof of the government’s green agenda.
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After a brutal 2023, the winds of change are blowing at Danish wind energy giant Ørsted. The company posted a staggering loss of 28.4 billion kroner last year (about $5.6 billion Cdn) as it abandoned two huge offshore wind projects in the United States. It also saw its share prices plummet by 35%. However, this year has seen global wind energy prices increase, which is good financial news for the company. And experts are forecasting that an American market that tanked in 2023, will come surging back next year, also providing a boost.
Sydbank Head of Equity Analysis Jacob Pedersen:
“I expect that Ørsted will deliver a bottom line of around eight billion kroner in 2024. It is not flashy, but it is a big step forward compared to the poor result in 2023. Fortunately, developments since the large write-downs in the US show that the American market is not dead. There is still plenty of activity.”
However, Pedersen cautions that it will take years for Ørsted to fully pull itself out of the financial hole of 2023 and its shareholders will have to be patient before their investment pays any dividends.
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Globally, wind energy is still considered “a huge growth market” thanks to the green energy transition.
DTU Wind Head of Wind Energy Systems Lena Kitzing:
“Wind energy is a huge growth market on a global scale. We expect renewable energy to triple by 2030. It will really, really grow. It is clear that things have changed in the last three or four years, so you have to take that into account. But the underlying necessity is no different than before that we need to install and invest in all these wind farms if we are to achieve the green transition.”
European wind energy companies struggled last year due to being squeezed between a flood of cheaper Chinese options and competitive pressure from American companies.
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The wind energy playing field needs to be leveled in Europe in order to protect tens of thousands of jobs. That is what the CEO of Green Power Denmark is saying as he noted a slide in a PowerPoint presentation that showed the pressure China is exerting on EU wind companies. .
“Denmark and the European Union’s position of strength on wind turbines is strongly challenged by Chinese manufacturers with gigantic state support behind them. We need a level playing field to hold on to the approximately 35,000 jobs in the Danish wind industry.”
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Instead of an outright ban of Russian LNG the European Parliament has tabled a workaround. On Thursday, EU parliamentarians voted to allow new rules that would give individual European countries the power to block Russian and Belarusian LNG imports. If a government so chooses, gas firms from Russia and Belarus can be blocked from booking capacity on any EU gas delivery infrastructure.
So far, no EU government has indicated they would exercise this new option.
The European Union has danced around placing sanctions on or even trying to outright ban, Russian LNG because some members of the bloc rely so heavily on it.
Despite Russia weaponizing its energy exports following its invasion of Ukraine, Russian LNG continues to flow into Europe mostly via ports in Spain, Belgium, and France.
🦠Outbreaks🦠
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Last week, COVID activity, as measured by wastewater surveillance, nudged upward (blue line) as did infection-related hospitalizations (green line). The Statens Serum Institute says activity is still considered to be “at a low level” while adding the usual caveat about “increased uncertainty” in its infection activity calculations.
Overall, respiratory infection activity is much improved compared to the winter onslaught with whooping cough, influenza, RS virus, and coronavirus all swirling around. Influenza-related hospitalizations narrowly account for a much diminished overall number of hospital admissions.
Weekly hospital admissions by virus type/ Statens Serum Institute.
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Denmark saw a record-high number of whooping cough infections in an epidemic that began last August and ended in February. The Statens Serum Institute is analyzing the pertussis outbreak and has found that in contrast to the record high cases load whooping cough infections among infants, usually one of the most vulnerable groups, was lower than it has been in previous epidemics. The SSI attributes this to a lot of pregnant women getting vaccinated against pertussis. Conversely, the highest infection rate was among teenagers.
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It might be a good idea to get vaccinated against TBE, also known as Central European encephalitis, especially if you are wandering around forests in Sjælland or on the Danish island of Bornholm. TBE is transmitted from ticks to humans and there is no real treatment once you have it.
Nanna Skaarup Andersen, a specialist in the Department of Clinical Microbiology at Odense University Hospital and a clinical associate professor at the University of Southern Denmark, says the chances of getting TBE are very small. However, in advising people to get vaccinated she notes that the number of TBE infections in Denmark is rising. Ten years ago there were only one or two TBE cases a year. In 2023 there were 11.
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Nordic airliner SAS has been fined 250,000 Danish kroner (about $50,000 Cdn) after a Copenhagen court ruled the airline violated COVID rules during the height of the pandemic. In the spring of 2021, with the virus raging, one of the many COVID restrictions of the day mandated that airline passengers must have a recent negative test result in order to fly into Denmark. A judge found that SAS flew a total of 63 passengers into Denmark without the required test and levied the fine.
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In Sweden, COVID hospitalizations (71) continue to drop (-16) (updated on Sunday) while the number of intensive care patients (1) remains unchanged week to week.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency has released a thorough post-mortem of its much-maligned COVID response and unsurprisingly has found it lacking. The agency concludes that extensive changes are needed to be better prepared for the next pandemic. The Health Agency said a major failing was being unprepared to implement a comprehensive national testing program in response to COVID’s arrival.
“There was therefore in January 2020 very limited preparedness for this in Sweden. The implementation of the large-scale testing, infection tracking, and monitoring of virus variants therefore became challenging for all actors involved.”
In scrambling to establish COVID testing the health authority noted the Swedish regions struggled to make major changes that were often announced with short notice. Another barrier was IT systems that weren’t super compatible meaning the pandemic response suffered from a lack of critical information sharing.
The Public Health Agency also determined that infection spread, especially within households, was extensive and in the future needs to be mitigated. Sweden of course refused to introduce the strict COVID restrictions of its neighbours, with its then-state epidemiologist even going so far as to ridicule them. The agency has now determined that was a mistake.
“Measures to prevent the spread of infection in society are important, for example, rules of conduct for household contacts. But also more general measures that enable [people to] work from home, and measures to prevent congestion are essential. A regulatory framework in the form of a constitutional preparedness to enable these type of measures is important for a better preparedness for future pandemics.”
Department Head Sara Byfors:
“We assess that extensive testing and infection tracking will likely be required during the next pandemic as well and that society's preparedness for this needs to be improved. This requires, among other things, better digital tools and a clear division of responsibility between the state and other actors.”
As for the next steps, the health agency is urging that the pandemic response be centralized under its control so that the authority can better coordinate a national pandemic response.
“The regional preparedness for more extensive infection tracking also needs to be improved. Nationally interoperable IT systems for testing and infection tracking need to be developed in preparation for future pandemics, this should be done in cooperation between the state and the regions.”
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Norway’s respiratory infection picture remains much improved from the winter months when the country was buffeted by multiple infection waves. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health says the influenza outbreak is over and there are very few coronavirus and RS virus cases.
Influenza numbers have been in a nosedive since the end of February. The institute says the winter flu season wasn’t particularly intense but it did stick around a lot longer than usual. Flu-related hospitalizations also continue to decline with 64 last week, 25 fewer than the week before. There hasn’t been an influenza-related ICU admission since mid-March.
Whooping cough infections continue to stubbornly stick around in Norway with numbers remaining steady over the last six weeks. Young people five to 14 years old seem to be the most vulnerable.
COVID-related hospital admissions have been declining steadily since the end of December. That said, last week there were 30 admissions, an increase of 10 from the week previous.
Norway suffered just one coronavirus death last week.
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The number of air travelers has increased steadily since the COVID pandemic virtually ended international globe-hopping for the better part of two years. But the number of air travelers still hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels. Experts are forecasting that will change this summer. However, all that travel activity could jam a system that is already struggling with a lack of new big jets. Europe’s Airbus has been struggling with production difficulties and Boeing in the States has its own huge problems gumming up the works.
Airlines are instead turning to repairing older more gas-guzzling aircraft to keep things moving. But even that may not be enough with some companies looking at trimming departure numbers despite the anticipated wave of people looking to travel.
In 2019, 4.5 billion people traveled by air, numbers that have yet to be matched in any year since the COVID pandemic. Travel experts are forecasting that some 4.7 billion people will take to the air this year.
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The Public Health Agency of Canada has not updated COVID hospitalizations since March 26.
🇺🇦Ukraine/ Russia War🇷🇺
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A stark warning about how dire the situation is in Ukraine from the Supreme Allied Commander of Europe. General Christopher G. Cavoli was testifying at the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday as MAGA Republicans continue to hold up any further military funding for Ukraine.
"[Ukraine's] ability to defend their terrain that they currently hold and their airspace would fade rapidly, will fade rapidly without the supplemental, without continued U.S. support. It will continue to fade until such time as somebody else is able to provide those munitions to the Ukrainians. That production level is not in sight right now, we think it's at least months away.”
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“Words alone will not stop Putin. We must deliver more military support.”
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell says military support for Ukraine must be expanded and delivered much faster.
“We must provide Ukraine with air defense systems to intercept Russia’s missiles, protect cities, and critical infrastructure. Ukraine needs surface-to-air missile batteries. Donations will make a difference between life and death. We are doing a lot. €31 billion to military assistance to Ukraine and we are supporting our defense industry to ramp up missile and ammunition production in Europe. We will do more. We must empower Ukraine’s defense industry. The Ukraine Assistance Fund will be instrumental to procure, produce and deliver ammunitions.”
Borrell is proposing that Ukraine co-host the Ukraine Defense Industry Forum in May. He also pledged that “bold decisions” will come at an upcoming meeting of EU Foreign Affairs and Defense ministers to take place in just over a week.
Earlier this week, Borrell also told the Financial Times that a full-blown war in Europe is “no longer a fantasy.”
“War is certainly looming around us. A high-intensity, conventional war in Europe is no longer a fantasy.”
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A controversy is brewing in the Baltic. Russia has employed what has been dubbed a ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers with dubious registration and suspect insurance coverage in order to skirt sanctions on exports of its oil and gas. An increasing number of those tankers have been plying North and Baltic Sea waters carrying Russian oil. An investigation by Swedish national broadcaster SVT has found that a Latvian company has been busy refueling those tankers just outside Swedish territorial waters.
The company, Fastbunkering, states that its operations are safe and they are abiding by all the rules. However, the Latvian government suspects it may be Russian fuel being sold. If that is the case it would be a violation of Western sanctions. The company denies this.
Latvian Foreign Affairs Ministry Deputy State Secretary Andžejs Viļumsons:
“Circumventing sanctions is a crime in Latvia. We are looking at this and we will have to dig into the details to understand the nuances because unfortunately not everything is prohibited under EU sanctions rules, so we have to investigate whether it is just the sale of fuel or whether it is the transfer of Russian oil.”
Sweden says it will work within the European Union to pursue all options to limit the movement of shadow fleet tankers in the Baltic. Other European nations in the Baltic have signaled they will follow suit.
Estonian Foreign Affairs Minister Margus Tsahkna:
“We are worried and we have to do something, but we have to figure out how to do it, because it is not enough that just Estonia, Finland, and Sweden do it.”
The other persistent concern is the risk of a catastrophic oil spill involving these aging tankers with their dubious insurance coverage. Should a spill happen massive clean-up costs would likely never be able to be recovered.
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With the growing threat of war European countries are not just suddenly spending boatloads of money on weapons and ammunition they are also looking to grow their armies. In an interview with the BBC, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas urged other countries to introduce conscription.
“Of course, each country must decide for itself, we are all democracies, but I recommend it in many respects.”
Estonia, and the rest of the Baltic states, have conscription while other European nations like France and Great Britain do not. Estonia boasts a reserve of 44,000 soldiers and Kallas views conscription as an important aspect of a strong national defense.
Germany, which abolished conscription in 2011, is looking into the possibility of reintroducing it.
Latvia reintroduced conscription for all men between the ages of 18 and 27 years old in January.
Last Friday, Norway announced it was going to more than double its defense budget and as part of that it would increase conscription by 4,600 soldiers.
All of the Nordic nations have conscription as a foundational element of society. In Denmark, as part of its recent historic increase in defense spending expanded conscription to, among other things, include conscripting women for the first time beginning in 2026. Conscription was written into the Danish constitution in 1849.
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While the European Union seeks to drastically upscale ammunition production to both maintain a steady supply of shells to Ukraine and to restock armouries of its member nations, the effort is running into challenges.
According to Björn Andersson, business development manager at the Nordic ammunition manufacturer Nammo, while ammunition production ramps up the production of gunpowder and explosives critical to making those ammunitions has not.
Nammo has begun to source what it needs from countries outside the European Union. When production reaches full capacity European manufacturers will be able to churn out between one and two million artillery shells per year.
With Ukraine running desperately short of artillery shells and Russia launching a renewed offensive the supply of ammunition is absolutely critical.
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Latvia has joined a growing list of European countries, including Denmark and Finland, in signing a long-term security agreement with Ukraine. The ten-year agreement enshrines Latvia’s military commitment to Ukraine locking in the spending of 0.25% of its GDP by 2026.
Latvia has also committed to supporting Ukraine in its efforts to join both the European Union and NATO.
The agreement also sets out specific areas of military support including supplying drones, military equipment, weapons, and the training of Ukrainian soldiers. Non-military support includes cyber security, energy, and on hybrid threats (an EU euphemism for Russia’s weaponization of things like immigration).
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Bloomberg is reporting that Switzerland will host a peace conference this summer. Up to 100 countries will participate in the conference set for June 16 and 17. The aim of the conference is to build broad global support for Ukraine’s ten-point peace plan. It isn’t clear if China, which has presented its own peace plan, will attend or not. Russia has flatly declined to participate.
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Denmark has joined a coalition of countries bordering the North Sea that will work together to protect critical infrastructure and increase security across the region. With a network of critical electricity and data cables along with gas and oil pipelines running along the sea floor and some high-profile incidents in the Baltic, there is an increased risk of sabotage. So Denmark, Belgium, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, and Great Britain have signed a new agreement to work together to protect critical North Sea infrastructure.
Danish Climate, Energy and Supply Minister Lars Aagaard:
“The North Sea has the potential to become Europe's green power plant. For the benefit of the climate and for Europe's energy security of supply Russia's aggression has put an emphasis on the fact that supply and security policy are intrinsically linked. It is absolutely essential that we cooperate to protect critical infrastructure across national borders.”
The six countries will launch a review of current protection and security measures of critical North Sea infrastructure as well as share information and knowledge on issues of importance to all. The work will be enhanced by cooperation where it applies within NATO and the European Union.
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With Russian missiles raining down on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Denmark is donating 40 million kroner (about $7.8 million Cdn) to help rebuild what has been damaged and destroyed. The money will come from a special Ukraine fund set up by the government to ensure long-term support.
Development Cooperation and Global Climate Policy Minister Dan Jørgensen:
“In recent weeks, Russia has chosen to increase its targeted attacks against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and we have seen extensive destruction. From the Danish side, we are now providing 40 million Danish kroner to contribute to the necessary recovery so that Ukraine can maintain its energy supply.”
The ministry did not specify exactly how the money will be spent in order to help get Ukraine’s energy infrastructure restored.
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Denmark has given Ukraine’s Ambassador four boxes of digitized historical records from 1918 to 1921. The boxes contain echoes of history, which might sound eerily familiar today. The records are 100-year-old reports from Danes working in the Red Cross after a civil war broke out pitting the Ukrainian People’s Republic against the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. From Kyiv, Red Cross workers sent back reports and press releases on everything from attacks on Danish field hospitals to dealing with wounded and starving adults and children. The Danish National Archives calls it important historical information for Ukraine providing details about the horrors of war from a non-military source.
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Two Russian oligarchs described by the European Union as being in Vladimir Putin’s inner circle have successfully challenged Western sanctions placed on them due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The EU Court of Justice ruled this week that the European Council has not presented enough evidence to prove that Petr Aven and Mikhail Fridman were involved in “efforts that undermine or threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine". The ruling means that the sanctions against both men have now been lifted.
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Thanks to a back and forth in the Danish parliament we know now that the shelved investigation into the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines involved 13 interviews of witnesses. Justice Minister Peter Hummelgaard revealed the information in response to questioning. We don’t know if that means 13 different people were interviewed or whether some were questioned multiple times. The minister did say that no one was read the rights of the accused, so none were serious suspects in the case.
Denmark’s investigation, conducted by police and the national intelligence agency, was ended in February with no firm conclusions. A month before that a Swedish investigation was also shelved. The lone investigation still underway is being done by Germany.
Odds & Ends
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Train service between Silkeborg and Herning resumed this morning after a landslide wiped out the tracks last Friday. The rail company had hoped to finish repairs and clean up by Tuesday but the mess was so extensive it took longer than expected.
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The Danish Regions want more people to bike or walk short distances and use public transportation not their car for longer trips. To that end, Danske Regioner is proposing changes to the payment structure for public transit so that it will make it more expensive on shorter journeys and cheaper for longer trips. With fewer people taking buses and trains and more Danes choosing to drive the region’s hope is that cheaper long-distance train or bus travel will prove to be more economical than driving.
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The Danish government is proposing to seriously boost funding for state-recognized museums. If approved it would boost the funding of 95 museums currently designated as state-recognized by 75 million Danish kroner per year (about $14.7 million Cdn) pushing total annual funding to more than half a billion kroner.
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In the last year, tourists spent €3.8 billion while visiting Finland. Business Finland has been tracking the tourism numbers and says while that is not an insignificant figure overall tourism numbers have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Since last February, some 4.7 million tourists have paid Finland a visit. On average each tourist stayed spent €807 per trip.
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The European Union has adopted new requirements to make it more transparent for consumers to see what exactly is in some of the food products they buy. The so-called ‘breakfast initiative’ means that, among other things, honey and jam products must clearly state the country the product comes from. Jams must also now have a mandated minimum of fruit content.