Monday Morning News & Notes
The horrors of Bucha shock the world. Denmark’s COVID wave recedes.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
The world is reeling as Ukrainian soldiers liberating towns and areas around Kyiv are discovering horrific atrocities in the wake of a retreating Russian army. In one town, Bucha, the streets were littered with bodies, some who were executed with their hands tied behind their back, others mutilated or bearing the marks of torture. Ukrainian forces have also discovered mass graves.
Former World Boxing Heavyweight Champion Wladimir Klitschko, who is fighting with the Ukrainian forces, posted tweets from the street with bodies lying behind him to call what the Russians did in Bucha “genocide.” His brother Vitali is the mayor of Kyiv.
World leaders reacted almost universally with shock and outrage as appalling videos and images poured out of Bucha. The President of the European Union Council is promising even more sanctions will be levied on Russia.
Human Rights Watch has published a report examining Russian war crimes perpetrated so far during its invasion of Ukraine. You can find it HERE. I would caution that it doesn’t spare any of the grisly details and can be very disturbing reading.
🇱🇹/ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺
Lithuania has become the first European country to ban Russian gas. Lithuania’s President, Gitanas Nausėda, said on Saturday that as of this month the country would end all Russian gas imports.
Nauseda is urging other EU nations to follow suit. He says if Lithuania can do it, then so can other European nations.
European Union countries, and the EU as a whole, are trying to severe their energy dependency on Russia as fast as possible after the country’s invasion of Ukraine.
🇱🇹 🇪🇪 🇱🇻/ 🇷🇺
The other Baltic states seem to have joined Lithuania in rejecting Russian gas supplies. Baltic Grid, a natural gas transmission and storage operator in Latvia, says gas from Russia hasn’t flown into Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia since the beginning of the month.
Board Chair Uldis Bariss says demands by Russia that gas supplies now only be paid for in Russian rubles send a clear signal to the EU that dependence on Russian gas must be reduced as fast as humanely possible.
“While there was still doubt that Russian supplies could be relied on, these events clearly show that, from a security perspective, there is no longer any confidence. From the point of view of the state's energy security, the state must unequivocally resolve the issue of the construction of the second liquefied natural gas terminal; the shorter the period, the better.”
Bariss says they have enough natural gas in storage to cover what Latvia would use in a normal winter, but added.
“We are definitely not worried about the coming months, but we need to think about how to create savings for the winter in the Baltic region.”
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European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says the EU is working on a joint response to Russia’s ultimatum that European nations pay their gas bills in Russian rubles.
“Putin is trying to divide European countries. We are not alone, we are united with our partners. Gas reserves in the Inčukalns storage are currently sufficient.”
Several countries, including Germany, have flatly refused the demand to pay in rubles.
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
Ørsted, the largest energy company in Denmark, has refused to pay for Russian gas in rubles, according to a company press release.
“Ørsted condemns Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has already taken a number of measures to stop cooperation with Russian companies.”
The company has stopped buying Russian biomass and coal, which are used in heat and power plants.
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Denmark, at least so far, is in good shape on the energy front thanks to getting a helping hand from Mother Nature. If Russia does turn off the taps, it will be offset, at least in the short term, by an abundance of wind and solar energy. Thanks to an extremely windy February followed by the sunniest March on record, Denmark has set a new renewable energy record for the first three months of the year. Green Power Denmark says in a press release that a full 6,293 gigawatt hours were produced in the first quarter surpassing the previous record of 6,003 GWh.
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Danish industrial giant Danfoss is pulling the plug on its Russian operations. According to a press release, the company will make “a controlled exit from Russia and Belarus".
“Danfoss has been present in Russia since 1993. Our teams in Russia and Belarus are excellent and that makes this decision so much harder. We regret the decision, but in the current situation we do not see other options.”
The company employs about 1,300 employees in the two counties. Danfoss has already suspended all imports, exports, and payments to Russia.
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
Denmark continues to brace for a continued flood of Ukrainian refugees. So far, it is estimated 25,000 to 30,000 have already arrived in the country. But, Integration Minister Mattias Tesfaye said in a press conference over the weekend that the government estimates that after Easter another 35,000 to 40,000 more Ukrainians will arrive. Going into the weekend, the Danish Immigration Service has registered 14,200 applications for residence permits, with about 1,200 approved so far.
The Danish government is looking at giving municipalities more options to house Ukrainian refugees. This would include allowing disused nursing homes, schools, or hospitals to be used as refugee housing.
🇩🇰/ NATO/ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺
The Danish military is pressing pause on plans to sell the country’s aging fleet of F-16 fighter jets. The plan was to phase out and sell the older fighters as the new F-35 arrived to replace them. However, the war in Ukraine has changed all of that and a “peacetime” transition plan no longer works as the Danish military moves to a higher state of readiness due to Russia’s aggression.
According to DR, Chief of Defense Flemming Lentfer has asked the military to investigate whether retirement or the F-16 jets can be deferred.
“It is the Defense Command who is examining, in the light of the changed security policy situation in Europe, the issue. But no decision has been made at this time.”
Originally, the plan was to rely on a handful of F-16s for several years as pilots got used to the new F-35s and gradually replaced the older jets. With Denmark already actively patrolling the airspace above the Baltics, it is no longer feasible to have any reduced air combat capacity.
🇫🇮/ NATO
It sounds like the will they or won’t they question about Finland joining NATO will be answered one way or the other fairly quickly. In a speech to her party over the weekend, as reported by YLE, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin told delegates that “Russia is not the neighbour we thought it was?” Marin then added a decision on whether or not to see membership in NATO would have to be made this spring. She also warned that no matter what Finland decides to do, join the alliance or stay out of it, the country will face consequences.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, public sentiment in Finland has swung dramatically in favour of joining NATO. It is a similar story in nearby Sweden.
In response, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated if Finland and Sweden were to decide to apply to join the process to admit either country would be done very quickly.
🇺🇸/ 🇺🇦
The United States said over the weekend it will help facilitate the transfer of tanks from NATO-allied countries to Ukraine “within days, not weeks.” The tanks will be Soviet era T-72s, which the Ukrainian military has experience in operating and using and thus can put them into service immediately.
Poland alone apparently has hundreds of the old Soviet tanks it could be willing to part with if they are replaced by much newer models. Other former Soviet bloc countries, who are now NATO countries, also have a number in storage.
This is on top of a multitude of weapons from the United States that have begun to roll into Ukraine. The first six or so of some 30 weapons shipments arrived over the weekend. This will be primarily things like anti-tank weapons, anti-aircraft guns, and some Switchblade drones, among other weapons and equipment.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
The latest round of blood donor testing is yet another sign that Denmark’s huge Omicron infection wave is finally receding. That is according to the Staten Serum Institute as it looks at the results of a fifth round of blood donor testing. Like the previous rounds, this one projects that up to 70% of Danes between the ages of 17 to 72 have had a COVID infection since Omicron arrived last November. However, unlike the last round of testing, this time the increase from weeks 9 through 11 isn’t nearly as strong as the four previous two-week periods.
Aarhus University Hospital Professor Christian Erikstrup:
“The increase since last time is very modest. Our study ends after the next test week. Then we can finally determine how many people have been infected with coronavirus since the Omicron variant came to the country in November.”
In the fifth round of testing blood donations, there were 5,939 blood donors and of those 56% had coronavirus antibodies in their blood. That is a 5% increase from the round before but a far smaller rise than previous weeks, where, for example, there were increases of 17% during blood donor testing in February.
The Director of the Staten Serum Institut, Henrik Ullum, says this is more evidence of a declining infection wave.
“Our estimates of how many people have been infected over the winter here in week 11 are very close to the latest estimates from week 9. This reflects the clear decrease in the number of infections we have experienced over the last few weeks. It is gratifying, and it shows that Denmark, due to immunity from both vaccines and infections, is in a good place right now in relation to the threat from COVID.”
Taking a closer look at the results, Region Nordjylland had the highest number of blood donors with coronavirus antibodies where 63% had been infected. This compares to Region Syddanmark, which had the least with 53%.
There are also variations across age groups where COVID prevalence is highest (67%) among 17 to 30 year olds and lowest (47%) among 46 to 72 year olds. It is worth noting that the shift in infection burden on older age groups was reflected in this latest analysis of blood donors. From week 9 to 11, the increase in those with coronavirus antibodies among older age groups was, for the first time in the study, equal to or greater than those among younger people.
The Staten Serum Institut has teamed up with the Danish Blood Bank and Aarhus University Hospital to screen blood donations for COVID antibodies. The goal is to determine the COVID ‘dark number’ or people who have been infected but weren’t captured within the testing system.
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COVID hospitalizations (1,021) increased (+18) while the number of severe infection cases in an ICU (21) inched downward (-1) and of those the number on a ventilator (7) also declined slightly (-2). Pandemic admissions to a psychiatric ward (288) also edged downward (-4).
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The number of coronavirus patients being admitted to hospital and staying for 12 hours or more (red line) continues to fall sharply. While hospital stays of 12 hours or less (blue line) also continue to drop.
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Looking at hospitalizations by age group, once concerning numbers among young people, especially infants under the age of two, have diminished greatly in the last month or so. It is now older people who are bearing the brunt of COVID hospitalizations, especially seniors over the age of 65.
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Denmark suffered another 39 pandemic deaths over the weekend while adding 4,932 COVID infections (underreported).
There were 12,508 PCR tests done on Saturday equaling a positivity percentage of 16.62%.
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On the vaccination front, the campaign continues to be a grind, with just 595 booster doses administered on Saturday. As percentages of the total population, the numbers remain stagnant. To date, 82.3% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 80.8% have two, and 61.5% have a booster shot.
🇸🇪
Sweden has moved to a once a week COVID reporting system and only updated its pandemic statistics every Thursday.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency has given the green-light to a fourth round of COVID vaccinations. The second booster dose is now recommended for anyone in Sweden who is 65 years old or older. People 18 years old and older who have moderate to severely immunocompromised can also take advantage of the fourth dose.
Director Karin Tegmark Wisell:
“The goal is just as before, to prevent serious illness and death due to a coronavirus infection. As we still see a significant infection spread both in Sweden and in other countries in combination with the fact that vaccine protection is now starting to decline in this group, it is justified to offer more age groups, a second booster dose.”
For most seniors in Sweden it has been at least four months since they had a third vaccine dose and their immunity could be beginning to wane. Sweden’s national health agency recommends a second booster dose be taken for most eligible seniors four months after having a third dose. For those who are immunocompromised, the gap between the 3rd and 4th shots has been shortened to three months.
“It is high time to think about your vaccination protection. Anyone who has not been vaccinated against COVID at all should do so as soon as possible, both for their own sake and for the sake of others. Anyone who is 18 years and older and who has not yet taken their third dose should make sure to get it as soon as possible.”
The agency also revealed it is planning for another round of booster vaccinations this coming fall to increase population level protection against what health officials are anticipating will be another winter COVID wave.
🇳🇴
Norway has added 3,467 infections (underreported) and had no new corona deaths since its update on Thursday.
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health is no longer reporting COVID hospitalization data other than weekly coronavirus admissions. In the last seven days there were 348 infected people admitted to hospital, which is 52 fewer admissions than there were in the week before.
So far, 80.4% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one vaccine dose, 74.7% have two, and 54.1% have a booster dose.
🇫🇮
Finland doesn’t report COVID statistics on the weekends.
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The Finnish Institute for Health will hold a public question and answer meeting on COVID vaccines next week. The online event is scheduled for April 12, from 5:30pm - 6:30pm. It will feature a number of health experts. Questions have to be submitted online before the event begins.
🇩🇪
Germany’s Robert Koch Institute says the country’s Omicron-driven infection wave may have finally peaked. That said, the health agency also warned COVID caseloads remain very high, with 1.5 million infections reported just last week.
Even though the number of cases remains very high, Germany is now considering a further relaxation of COVID restrictions. The country is considering ending mandatory quarantines for people who test positive. Currently, a COVID infection comes with a mandatory seven day isolation period in Germany.
Health Minister Karl Lauterbach has been vocal in recent days about having no choice but to lift COVID restrictions despite his personal desire to keep them in place. He says people must take personal responsibility, and for those who have refused to be vaccinated, they must “now fend for themselves.”
🇪🇺🦠
For a third straight week, COVID infection numbers across Europe continued to creep upward, according to the latest snapshot from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Infections cases rose by 4.3% week over week across Europe, while the COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people also continued to rise, going from 1,857 to 1,932 from one week to the next. It is seniors who continue to bear the brunt of this latest infection wave driven by the BA.2 variant, with cases increasing by 14% among those 65 years old and older. The ECDC says infection cases among seniors have now matched the peak seen in the parent BA.1 Omicron wave.
As far as hospitalizations, the ECDC says of the 28 countries that report admissions data, nine recorded week-to week increases in either hospital or ICU admissions. That said, the agency notes in week 12, intensive care occupancy across the European Union “continued to remain much lower than previously observed.” In fact, there wasn’t a single European country with ICU capacity above 50% of their pandemic maximum. Four countries, Austria, Ireland, Luxembourg, and Slovenia, recorded week over week increases in intensive care admissions.
Pandemic fatalities continue to fall across the EU and the greater European Economic Area. The 14 day fatality rate per million population decreased by 11%, falling from 32.2 to 28.3 from week 11 to week 12.
Looking at the individual countries, four, France, Greece, Ireland, and Malta, are considered to be of very high COVID concern. While 18 nations including Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Italy, Norway, and Portugal, were rated as high pandemic concern. Six countries, Belgium, Bulgaria, Iceland, the Netherlands, Romania, and Spain, are low concern.
Across the EU/EEA 72.4% of the total population have two vaccine doses and 52.5% have a booster shot.
The Omicron variant continues to reign supreme in Europe, with the strain coming back in 99.9% of all positive sequenced tests in mid-March. Of those, 75.4% were the BA.2 sub-variant while 21.8% were the original parent Omicron virus.
The ECDC is forecasting coronavirus cases, hospital admissions to either decrease or remain somewhat stable over the next two weeks. Although it cautions due to the drastic decreases in testing numbers, any pandemic forecast need to be taken with caution.
🇪🇺💉
The European Medicines Agency has begun to evaluate an application from the makers of the Novavax COVID vaccine to extend its use to adolescents aged 12 to 17 years old. Novavax was approved for use among adults in the EU back in December. However, due to shipping issues doses of the vaccine began to arrive across Europe about a month ago.
The EMA did not give a timeline for when it would render a recommendation for or against using the vaccine for children as young as 12.
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The COVID vaccine Vidprevtyn has moved a step closer to a decision from the EMA. The vaccine made by Sanofi Pasteur had been in the agency’s rolling review stage and it has now moved to the ‘conditional marketing authorization’ step. This is the 2nd in the three-phase process to decide if a COVID vaccine is safe and effective and can, or cannot, be recommended for use in Europe.
🦠 📚
A study out of the United Kingdom has found that Vitamin D doesn’t provide any protection against a coronavirus infection. But the study’s lead author says there are still unanswered questions. The six month trial involved nearly 6,000 people, with 1,500 getting high doses of vitamin D; another 1,500 receiving a lower dose, and around 3,000 had no supplement at all. Researchers then examined the groups over the months long study for any respiratory or coronavirus infection. They found no statistically significant difference between the three groups.
The lead author of the study, Professor Adrian Martineau, however, says the jury is still out and more studies are needed before dismissing the possibility vitamin D has an effect.
🇨🇦
Canada is seeing a sixth COVID wave, but not one that is unexpected according to Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam. She says given the lifting of restrictions, waning immunity among some groups, and the arrival of the even more contagious BA.2 variant, it is a recipe for rising infection numbers.
“As of March the 31st, daily average case counts have increased by 28% nationally, indicating a resurgence is underway. The bottom line is everybody right now, I think, should still wear their masks and keep those layers of measures, no matter where you are in this country. Because, even if you don't see a resurgence now, you're probably going to in the next days or weeks, and that [taking precautions] will help reduce transmission and make sure that the impact on the health system is lowered.”
Tam also cautioned COVID activity was not increasing enough to warrant reintroducing national restrictions.
Public Health Agency of Canada modeling, which is limited in its effectiveness due to a lack of testing, is showing while infections will rise there shouldn’t be as many severe outcomes as seen in previous waves. It did not include any estimations of new infection numbers or deaths due to the lack of testing data. That said, it also warned hospitalization numbers were going to rise albeit the impact on the healthcare system “could be more manageable.” It is also warning that coronavirus will be with us for the foreseeable future, as will the threat of an even more dangerous variant eventually emerging.
People are advised to continue to wear masks, keep their distance where possible, and make sure they are vaccinated. PHAC estimates 5.1 million Canadians who could be vaccinated still need one or more vaccine doses to become fully protected. It says vaccinations among 5 to 11 year olds have plateaued at around 57% with just 1# of inoculation growth in the last month. People who are not vaccinated have a risk of hospitalization that is ten times higher than it is for someone who has been vaccinated and boosted.