Monday Morning News & Notes
The BA.5 wave continues to rise in Europe. Sweden and Finland are halfway there.
Editors Note: We are taking a two week summer break and Informeret will publish next on August 2nd. Thanks for reading and we wish you a happy and safe summer break with friends and family.
🦠Pandemic🦠
WHO/ 🦠
In its latest global snapshot, the World Health Organization says the number of coronavirus cases around the world increased for a fifth consecutive week. In the week ending July 10, there were over 5.7 million new infections reported. That is a 6% increase week over week. Keep in mind the number of cases is very underreported.
Global pandemic deaths were stable week to week, with 9,800 pandemic fatalities reported, a similar figure to the week prior.
Looking at the different WHO regions, infections increased by 28% in the Western Pacific Region; the Eastern Mediterranean region was up 25%, Southeast Asia rose by 5%, and the European region saw a 4% hike. Two regions, Africa and the Americas , both declined slightly.
Pandemic deaths declined in two regions, Africa and the Western Pacific. The figures were stable week to week in the European and the Americas regions. But fatalities have rocketed up week to week in the Eastern Mediterranean, rising 78% and deaths rose by 23% in the Southeast Asia region.
Looking closer at the WHO European region, which covers 53 countries, 21 of which saw week-to-week infection increases of 20% or more. The highest percentage increases were seen in Kazakhstan (+139%), Kosovo (+122%), and Moldova (118%). The highest number of new cases week to week were in France (+771,260), Italy (+661,984), and Germany (+561,136)
Spain saw the highest number of pandemic deaths, with 619 in the week. Italy suffered another 574 lives lost, and France had 382 deaths.
🇪🇺🦠
The BA.5 variant wave continues to build in Europe, with COVID cases among seniors 65 years old and older increasing by another 23% last week. The latest European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control report says the infection wave in the EU has now reached 78.2% of the previous pandemic maximum. This is the sixth straight week of increasing coronavirus numbers.
The ECDC notes that with rising numbers of infections, especially among older more vulnerable people, there is a corresponding increase in severe infections. Out of the 30 countries reporting general and intensive care admissions and/or occupancy, 12 are seeing increasing numbers in one or both categories.
The 14-day COVID death rate per million population has remained stable for five weeks with a rate of 8.3 last week compared to 8.5 the week before. However, seven European countries are reporting increasing numbers of COVID deaths.
The ECDC says among 12 countries with “adequate testing and sequencing” the BA.5 and BA.4 variants came back in 82.8% of cases as of July 3. The once dominant BA.2 variant has now diminished to 15.4% of positive test results. It hasn’t yet reported any cases of the BA.2.75 variant in the latest reporting period, which is about two weeks old, although we know that Denmark has reported its first case.
Across the EU and the broader European Economic Area, 72.8% of the total population has two vaccine doses and 52.9% have a booster dose. The coverage for two doses hasn’t changed much in five months, while the rate of the first booster has also leveled off for two months now.
The ECDC is forecasting that infection numbers, hospitalizations, and COVID deaths will all continue to increase for at least the next two weeks.
“It should be noted that forecasts of cases are considered to be increasingly unreliable due to changes in testing criteria and reporting procedures. All current forecasts, case forecasts in particular, should be interpreted with caution.”
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Testing rates in Europe continue to be much too low, meaning any accurate assessment of the pandemic situation is very difficult to ascertain. The map below from the ECDC shows the number of countries that have been ‘greyed out’ due to testing numbers being so low that there is insufficient data to get a clear picture of the pandemic. Denmark’s testing numbers have again poked their head up over the testing threshold and the country is shaded light red.
🇩🇰
The Statens Serum Institute no longer updates COVID numbers on weekends. It will table an update later today with three days worth of data.
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The Danish National Health Board says the symptoms of a coronavirus infection seem to be changing as the pandemic continues. The agency says the main symptoms are now a sore throat, cough, and headache. Earlier in the pandemic, it was a loss of smell that was the most common symptom.
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In Denmark, COVID hospitalizations over the last seven days were heavily concentrated among those 40 years old and older. But, seniors 65 years old and older had the brunt of all coronavirus hospital admissions.
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The Danish National Health Board says it is keeping a close eye on pandemic developments, especially with the arrival of the BA.5 variant. But, it does not yet see any reason to speed up the timeline for a second booster shot.
Denmark will open up fourth vaccine doses to everyone 50 years old and older as of October 1. Currently, it says that people who are considered high-risk or are in a vulnerable group can get a second booster dose. They will have to get a referral from a doctor first.
Ward Doctor Gideon Ertner:
“We are still in a good place in the pandemic in Denmark. We have only seen a slight increase in the number of people admitted with coronavirus infection, and the number of pandemic patients admitted to intensive care is very low and stable. We are one of the countries with the highest adherence to vaccination in Europe, so the population is generally well protected. Although the vaccines do not work so well against infection with the various Omicron variants, they still provide good protection against severe infections.”
The health board says high-risk and vulnerable populations can get a vaccine dose now and possibly again in the fall as long as there have been at least three months between doses.
The health agency is also watching COVID developments at senior care homes very carefully.
“There has also been an increase in the number of nursing home residents who are admitted with COVID, but these are very small numbers. We are ready to act and update our recommendations if necessary.”
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The director of a senior care home in Arnborg, near Herning, is calling for the booster dose timeline to be sped up. The facility is seeing a COVID outbreak among both residents and staff. Workers in the care home are again wearing masks and visors.
Dorthe Laursen told TV2 that the situation caught her by surprise, with virus activity expected to be very low in the summer months, instead another infection wave is gripping the country. Laursen says a mobile testing site has now been set up at the facility. She says some seniors in care are unaffected, while others are being hit quite hard.
“We would really like booster doses to be given now and not in the fall, because it is now that we are in crisis, and it is a period of summer vacation, and therefore, we can not call in extra staff.”
She is calling for friends and family to think twice about visiting until things settle down.
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The pandemic has changed the game when it comes to office culture in Denmark. The Danish Chamber of Commerce says a survey of its 18,000 members and more than 100 industry associations found that working from home has really taken off. It says prior to the pandemic about 8% of working hours were from employees working from home. Since the pandemic, when workers moved en mass to home offices, the rate has doubled to 16% even with a return to “normal.”
Chamber Chief Consultant Pernille Taarup spoke to DR:
“I think that both managers and employees have found that it is a form of work that works. It provides flexibility for employees in relation to transport time, work-life balance, and the way we work, if we want to immerse ourselves in some tasks.”
🇸🇪
The Swedish Public Health Agency only updates its COVID numbers once a week every Thursday.
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Hospitals in Sweden’s capital region are under pressure due to an influx of COVID patients, infections among staff, and staffing issues due to summer holidays. At the latest meeting of Chief Physicians in Region Stockholm, the staffing shortage took center stage.
Chief Physician Elda Sparrelid says care spaces are declining as treatment is prioritized to those who need it most due to limited staffing.
“Even when there is a high occupancy rate, the health service is able to take care of those who are in need of emergency care. As always in healthcare, medical priorities are made and those who are most in need of care receive care first.”
The number of available care spaces in Region Stockholm last week was 2,268, that is, 78 fewer beds than the week previous. In specialized care for seniors there were 830 spaces, which is 19 fewer than the week before.
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At least one Swedish expert isn’t so sure the worst of the COVID pandemic is behind us. Infections are rocketing upward in European countries like France, Germany, and Italy. In Sweden, case numbers have been increasing for five straight weeks and likely in much larger numbers than is being reported due to restricting testing to seniors in care and those being hospitalized.
Umeå University Virology Professor Niklas Arnberg:
“Not sure if we have the worst behind us. We do not know at all what will happen in autumn and winter and how serious it will be. We have probably thought and hoped that we may have had the worst behind us, but now I am more uncertain.”
Arnberg adds he does have a hard time believing that hospitalization numbers, especially really severe cases requiring intensive care, will ever see the same heights as they did earlier in the pandemic.
🇳🇴
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health only updates its COVID statistics once every two weeks. This happens on every second Thursday.
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The Norwegian Institute of Public Health has tabled new pandemic scenarios for the summer. However, it also notes that there are several major variables that throw lots of uncertainty into any attempt to accurately forecast what may or may not happen in the weeks ahead. Among the variables is both the potential spread of the BA.5 variant as well as assumptions about how contagious it is compared to BA.2. Another big unknown is the extent of close contact among the Norwegian population in the summer months. Add low testing levels to all of this.
Department Director Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio:
“The size of the summer wave is largely determined by the epidemiological characteristics of the BA.5 variant. It is especially the infectivity of this variant that is of great importance in modeling. The peak of the summer wave will in all probability be lower than the peak of the winter wave at the beginning of 2022.”
That said, modeling indicates the BA.5 wave may hit its peak anytime between now and later this month. The peak could see somewhere in the area of 40 to 100 daily hospitalizations, with intensive care admissions somewhere between 10 and 50. The NIPH says there is “little probability” that overall pandemic admissions will reach the heights of the winter Omicron wave.
The big question mark is around what we know and what we don’t about the BA.5 variant.
“This means that the results must be interpreted with caution. The scenarios can not be interpreted as the true development of the epidemic in the coming weeks.”
The agency says the administration of a 2nd booster dose will have little effect on hospitalizations during the summer because inoculations began late with the wave already well underway. It stresses though, that for vulnerable seniors 75 years old and older, getting another booster shot is vital for protection against severe infection.
Director Gun Peggy Knudsen:
“The situation is still unpredictable, and the situation may change. Health institutions must be prepared for more admissions, for outbreaks and for greater numbers of sickness absences.”
🇫🇮
The Finnish Institute for Health only updates COVID numbers once a week, every Thursday.
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Finland’s capital region is preparing to step vaccination efforts back up again as the Finnish Institute for Health prepares to accelerate the timeline for another booster dose. Currently, there are two large vaccination sites in Helsinki but more are scheduled to come online in the fall when another vaccination campaign begins to administer a 4th dose to everyone 60 years old and older. Hiring has already begun to get the new sites staffed and increase staffing levels at existing sites.
Helsinki University Hospital Diagnostic Services Head Lasse Lehtonen told Yle that he is hoping the national health authority makes a decision on the vaccine timeline soon.
Helsinki Medical Director Timo Carpén spoke to Yle:
“We will open up times to schedule appointments as soon as possible when the [various affected] groups are due to be vaccinated nationally.”
Carpén says with about three million vaccine doses there are enough vaccines on hand, but he notes the clock is also ticking. A number of those doses in the stockpile are due to expire in September.
“This is also an argument in favour of starting vaccinations in August at the latest.”
The infection situation in Finland’s most populace region is currently fairly stable, but with the BA.5 variant spreading, that situation could soon change.
Lehtonen also noted the BA.2.75 variant has arrived in Europe, including in nearby Denmark, and Finnish health authorities are anticipating the new variant may drive another infection wave by November or December at the latest. He says until longer-acting vaccines hit the market, booster doses will likely become the new normal, especially for vulnerable and high-risk populations.
“Although the vaccines may not protect against infection to as high a degree as before, they still offer good protection against severe infection. Maintaining vaccine coverage is crucial to safeguarding the healthcare system. The staffing situation is difficult, so even a small COVID wave poses challenges for specialist care.”
🇩🇪
In Germany, the seven day COVID incidence rate as of Saturday had increased to 752.7 per 100,000 people, according to the Robert Koch Institute. This is a significant increase. A month ago it was 480.
German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach says this is concerning, but it also doesn’t paint a true picture of the pandemic, which is likely even worse than the numbers show.
“The incidence rate will probably be 1,500 to 2,000 with unreported cases. It is therefore not wrong if I also recommend that younger people with a large number of contacts consider the 4th vaccine dose after consulting their family doctor. Another booster shot is better than having the infection.”
On Friday, Germany suffered another 134 pandemic deaths, compared to 104 on the Friday the week before.
🇬🇧
The British government is widening eligibility for 4th vaccine dose as it lowers the age limit for a 2nd booster shot from 65 down to 50 years old. Healthcare staff and anyone five years old and older who belong to an at risk or vulnerable group can also get a fourth dose.
This comes as the UK sees another surge in coronavirus cases.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said by getting another vaccine dose to more people it will better protect the population as a whole when an expected fall and winter wave arrives.
“Vaccines were our way out of the pandemic, and now these will ensure that covid can never torment us in the same way again.”
WHO 🌎🦠💉
While the pandemic isn’t over yet, when it does eventually end, it will leave behind many different impacts. One of them looks to be increasing numbers of diseases that we have readily available vaccines for. A joint report from the World Health Organization and UNICEF has found that due to the pandemic, about 25 million children around the world missed routine vaccinations. Diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis were among the diseases where inoculation rates among children decreased.
UNICEF Chief Catherine Russell says this is the largest global reduction in routine childhood vaccinations in a generation.
The WHO pointed some of the blame at not just the pandemic kneecapping healthcare delivery, including routine vaccinations for children. But, also misinformation and fear-mongering is spilling over from COVID vaccines to all vaccines.
The majority of children who saw major drops in childhood vaccination rates live in developing countries, such as Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and the Philippines. The UN warns that more children are at risk of dying when fewer and fewer are vaccinated against preventable diseases in combination with an impending hunger crisis.
🦠🌎💉
COVID vaccines may impact women’s menstruation according to a new, and one of the largest, study to date. The study involved 39,000 women, of which 47% reported that they experienced a heavier period after vaccination. However, study author Katherine Lee cautions that a comparison to women who have not been vaccinated hasn’t been conducted yet. She also warns that due to the personal nature of menstruation women who experienced issues post-vaccination may “have have been more careful” about participating in the study.
“I think it's important for people to know that this can happen, so that they do not get scared, shocked or happen to go out without menstrual protection.”
Women in the Nordics have also reported period-related vaccination after-effects, with several studies launched. Denmark hasn’t reported any firm numbers, but in Sweden, more than 7,200 women have reported menstrual disorders after vaccination. It is also worth noting that there have also been period-related side effects reported due to having a coronavirus infection.
🇨🇦
COVID hospitalization numbers continue to rise across Canada. In the latest update of Canadian pandemic numbers for the week ending July 11, the total number of hospital beds used for infection patients jumped by 553 from week to week to 4,105 beds in use. Looking at general admissions the numbers rose from 3,373 beds in use to 3,896. Intensive care admissions increased by 30, to 209 beds in use. While the number of people on a ventilator crept up to 79, an increase of four.
The number if coronavirus cases increased by 24,872 from one week to the next in Canada while the country suffered another 162 pandemic deaths.
The seven day positivity percentage was 14.8%.
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The Canadian vaccination effort has administered 33,822,784 1st vaccine doses (88.46% of the total population) while 31,443,783 people (82.24%) have a 2nd dose, and of those, 20,765,490 people are fully vaccinated with three doses.
🦠Monkeypox🦠
Monkeypox cases continue to rise across Europe. According to the latest update from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, there are now 8,238 monkeypox infections across 34 European countries. Spain, the United Kingdom, and Germany have the most cases so far. Among the Nordics, according to the ECDC, there are 49 confirmed cases in Sweden, 31 in Norway, 30 in Denmark, and 13 in Finland.
The ECDC says in the majority of infection cases it is men between the ages of 31 to 40 years old. Among those with known HIV status, 43% of those with monkeypox infections were HIV positive. Symptoms ranged from a rash to fever, fatigue, muscle pain, vomiting, diarrhea, a sore throat, and a headache.
In about 10.2% of cases so far, 183 people, they were hospitalized and of those 93 required clinical care and three were admitted to an intensive care unit. 23 cases were reported to be healthcare workers. The health agency says investigations continue to assess risk of infection due to exposure between patients and staff in hospitals and other healthcare facilities.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇬🇧 🇳🇱/ 🇺🇦
The United Kingdom has begun a large scale training program for Ukrainian soldiers. Now the Netherlands will also help out.
Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren says the Dutch military will begin to contribute to the training program in August.
“The war in Ukraine is entering its sixth month. The Russian advance in the Donbas is slow, but steady. In addition, attacks on civilian targets are not being shunned, as we saw yesterday with a Russian missile attack on civilian targets in Vinnytsia, far from the front. Western support for Ukraine remains crucial to stopping Russian aggression.”
Ukrainian soldiers will undergo four weeks of basic training in the UK in a program that started last week. The goal is to train about 10,000 troops within three to four months.
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
We could hear more details this week about a seventh package of sanctions the European Union is looking to add to the pile facing Russia. Ministers from across the trading bloc are headed to Brussels this week to discuss the sanctions package.
One of them is Latvia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs.
The latest sanctions package is reported to target Russian gold exports putting the EU in line with sanctions already tabled by the United States and Canada. The European Union is still facing a bitter internal battle over bringing the hammer down on Russian gas and oil exports. Countries like Hungary continue to resist efforts to tighten the screws on that front and by doing so are blocking any progress.
🇸🇪 🇫🇮/ NATO
Half way there. 15 NATO member nations have now voted to ratify the accession protocols for Finland and Sweden to become full members of the military alliance. The latest two countries to ratify are Croatia and Slovenia.
They join Poland, Germany, Albania, Canada, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, the Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, Luxembourg, and Bulgaria.
All 30 NATO member countries have to vote to ratify Sweden and Finland as members.
🇫🇮 🇬🇧
While Sweden and Finland wind their way through the NATO application process, there is no time being wasted on getting on the same page from a military perspective. While the British Royal Air Force spent time in the last few weeks training with fighters from both countries, now it is time for ground forces to follow suit.
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
The good news is that another 2,724 Ukrainian refugees found work in Denmark in June. In May, the employment number was 1,675. The bad news is that there are at least 15,149 Ukrainian refugees between the ages, of 16 and 66 years old, who have so far registered their residency in Denmark.
This is according to the latest data from the Danish Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment. It says 7,521 refugees have signed up to seek work and of those, 1,715 have resumes uploaded and searchable on the jobs database. Another 846 are in the process of getting their resume information online.
Employment Minister Peter Hummelgaard:
“I am pleased that more and more Ukrainians are getting jobs. It is positive for the individual who can support himself and create as normal an everyday life as possible, and for the companies that need workers.”
But Hummelgaard also notes this is not easy for those who have fled Ukraine and now find themselves beginning anew in Denmark.
“We know that, among other things, there are some language barriers that can make it more difficult, but we have politically been focused on removing barriers along the way.”
With just a fifth of Ukrainian refugees finding jobs, experts say, with language barriers and the traumas of enduring war, loss, and having to flee your home, it is not easy getting adjusted and finding work.
Rockwool Foundation Research Professor Jacob Nielsen spoke to DR:
“The conflict is still raging in Ukraine. And most of these people have families back in Ukraine and may have traumatic experiences that affect the motivation to look for work here and now.”
In May and June, there were six job fairs for Ukrainian refugees, with 88 Danish companies attending. The employment agency says there were job offers and invitations to job offers that sprang from those events. Further initiatives are planned to help get Ukrainian refugees jobs in Denmark.
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
Danfoss is the latest Danish company to sever all business ties with Russia. In a press release, the company says it has reached an agreement to sell all of its stores in Russia and Belarus to a local management company. Danfoss, one of the largest companies in Denmark, scaled back its operations in Russia and Belarus in April, just over a month after the invasion of Ukraine. It is also worth noting that the company is also facing some scrutiny from the Danish Business Authority. It has launched an investigation into the sale of parts to Russian warships that were conducted by the Danish industrial giants subsidiary in Russia.
🇭🇺/ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺
Last week, Hungary declared “a state of energy emergency” and announced it would stop all gas exports to neighbouring countries to try to shore up its gas supplies as Russia throttles gas deliveries. The ban will come into force in August, stopping gas exports to its European neighbours while Hungary tries to boost domestic gas output by 33%.
About 85% of heating in Hungary is fueled by gas. And most of that gas comes from Russia’s Gazprom.
Hungary’s move is in direct violation of the EU’s security of supply regulation. It was designed to create energy solidarity between European countries. But Hungary seems to be taking the position the regulation isn’t worth the paper it is written on and can be ignored.
🇩🇪/ 🇪🇺
The Chancellor of Germany is proposing a sea change in EU politics. Olaf Scholz says the European Union can no longer afford to give member states a veto over foreign affairs and security policy if it wants to be a global superpower. Schulz says the war in Ukraine and efforts to sanction Russia have put the veto issue into the spotlight. He says individual member states must stop “selfishly blocking” EU decisions. He says there must be a common EU policy on issues ranging from migration policy to EU defense.