Monday Morning News & Notes
BQ.1 taking over in Europe. Another COVID wave arrives in the EU.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🌏🦠
A huge swath of the global population has at least some immune protection against the coronavirus due to either having been infected, vaccinated, or both, according to the World Health Organization.
Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus:
“The WHO estimates that at least 90 percent of the world's population now has some degree of immunity to SARS-CoVid-2 due to previous infection or vaccination. We are much closer to being able to say that the acute threat is over, but we are not quite there yet.”
The news from the global health agency opens the door to resume tackling other major health challenges, according to University of Copenhagen Professor of Global Health Flemming Konradsen, who spoke to DR.
“As a world health organization, we can only focus on a few major health challenges at a time. The fact that we are on our way out of this defined pandemic opens up the possibility that we can take up some of the other major health problems in the world and have a renewed focus on them.”
That said, Dr. Tedros emphasized, we are not done with the pandemic yet.
“The number of weekly COVID deaths reported to WHO has declined slightly over the past 5 weeks, but over 8,500 people lost their lives last week, which is not acceptable three years into the pandemic, when we have so many tools to prevent infections and save lives"
He says countries acting like the pandemic is over when it isn’t is not doing anyone any favours.
“Gaps in surveillance, testing, sequencing and vaccination are continuing to create the perfect conditions for a new variant of concern to emerge that could cause significant mortality.”
In fact, Dr. Tedros noted, that since the Omicron variant arrived a year ago, it has evolved at a stunning rate.”
“Today, there are over 500 sublineages of Omicron circulating. They are all highly transmissible. They all have mutations that enable them to escape built-up immunity more easily."
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Globally, coronavirus infections crept upward by 2% in the week ending November 27, according to the latest pandemic assessment from the World Health Organization. That equates to just under 2.7 million new infections that week.
Pandemic deaths around the world continued to decline by another 5%. But, that still means 8,400 more lost lives.
The WHO says infection numbers, an unreliable statistic, dropped in four of its six global regions. The African region (-18%) led the way, followed by the Eastern Mediterranean (-17%), and European (-14%) regions. Keep in mind the WHO European Region includes a number of countries outside the European Union. Just the Americas (+19%) and Western Pacific (8%) saw infection numbers climb in the latest weekly snapshot.
Looking at it by country, Japan continues to see the most new weekly infections with 698,772 (+18%). In Europe, France had the highest number of new corona cases with 230,871 (-1%) followed by Italy with 161,454 (-27%). The United States continues to struggle despite President Biden claiming the pandemic is over as it logged another 296,882 infections (+8%).
“Current trends in reported COVID cases should be interpreted with caution as several countries have been progressively changing COVID testing strategies, resulting in lower overall numbers of tests performed and consequently lower numbers of cases detected. COVID prevalence surveys conducted in a number of countries have found that the number of reported cases is an underestimate of the actual number of cases in the population.”
Pandemic fatalities rose in three WHO regions and declined in the other three. The African region saw the steepest drop (-79%), followed by the European (-35%), and Eastern Mediterranean (-20%) regions. While, COVID deaths rose in the Americas (+21%), Western Pacific (+9%), and South-East Asia (+5%).
The United States, which as suffered more pandemic deaths than any nation on earth, recorded the most weekly COVID deaths losing another 2,611 souls (+16%). COVID deaths also jumped in Japan with 1,000 fatalities (+42%) and in Brazil with 535 new deaths (+113%).
Taking into account reduced testing and genome sequencing with what data is available, the WHO says as of week 45, the week ending November 13th, the BA.5 variant and its sub-variants remained dominant globally, accounting for 73% of all sequenced positive tests. Reporting on a two week delay, the WHO says the BQ.1 variant has increased to 27.3% of all global sequenced positive test results.
🇪🇺🦠
Mixed news on the pandemic front in Europe. The latest weekly COVID snapshot from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control says that while infections among vulnerable seniors continued to drop, overall cases across Europe rose by 5% week to week. The COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people in week 47 was 344.3 up from the 327.4 from the week before.
At the country level, seven countries reported rising infection trends. Of those, Austria, Belgium, France, Luxembourg, and Slovenia have all reported their first week of increasing infection numbers.
Across the EU and the greater European Economic Area, the positivity percentage rose to 16.4% from the previous weeks 15.5%.
The ECDC is keeping a close eye on the variant front and it says the BA.1 variant is now dominant in seven EU countries. Of those, it says, some are seeing increasing infections and severity indicators. But, the agency adds, that the countries with the highest number of BQ.1 infections are not reporting “any concerning epidemiological changes to date.” It says so far it doesn’t appear that the new variant causes anymore severe infections.
COVID hospitalizations and intensive care admissions were stable at the overall European level. But, zooming down to individual countries shows that of the 21 nations reporting hospital data, seven saw rising hospital admission numbers ranging from 16 to 33% of the pandemic maximum. Belgium, Ireland, and Latvia all saw their first week in a while of increasing hospital admissions. While France is seeing coronavirus-related hospital occupancy rates at about 75% of the pandemic maximum and Finland is at over 75%.
Estonia saw its first week of increasing intensive care admissions, while France has seen ICU numbers rise for two straight weeks.
Thankfully, there were no increase in pandemic deaths in Europe, neither at the broader EU level or among any of the 26 countries reporting COVID death data to the ECDC. Overall, coronavirus deaths continue to drop in Europe, falling another 21%. That still means 1,386 lives were lost.
The agency is forecasting that over the next two weeks, infection numbers and COVID hospitalizations will increase while deaths will remain stable.
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A look at the latest Our World in Data numbers on COVID hospitalizations across a number of EU countries seems to indicate another coronavirus wave has arrived.
🇩🇰
The Statens Serum Institute doesn’t update coronavirus numbers over the weekend. It will table three days worth of infection data later today.
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Over the last seven days, in Denmark new COVID infections have continued the trend of being highly concentrated among the 20 to 64 year old age groups. To be more precise, it would be the 20 to 49 year old age groups just outside the target vaccination group of people 50 years old and older.
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While infections are highest among those 49 years old and younger, the risk of hospitalization due to a severe COVID infection continues to be highest among seniors 65 years old and older. That age group made up 64% of all infection-related hospitalizations in the last seven days.
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Region Sjælland held a vaccination ‘open house’ over the weekend. Anyone who is eligible could come into a vaccination center in the region without an appointment and get a COVID, influenza, or pneumonia vaccine. The offer included a special pediatric influenza nasal vaccine for children two to six years old.
Going into the weekend, the region says 85% of seniors 65 years old and older have had their flu shot. That is an improvement on last year’s vaccination rate of 76%.
Pneumococcal vaccinations have also increased from 13 to 38% among seniors.
However, flu vaccinations among children remain much too low, with just 12.1% of kids two to six years old in the region getting their flu vaccine dose.
🇸🇪
The Swedish Public Health Agency only updates its COVID statistics once a week, every Thursday.
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Get vaccinated. That is the message from the Swedish Public Health Agency as it warns that coronavirus infections are once again on the rise. It says vulnerable seniors and those who are at high-risk should ensure they have all their doses, especially before spending time with friends and family this Christmas and New Years.
The agency says from week 46 to 47 the number of COVID infections across Sweden increased by 16%. But, among vulnerable seniors in care, the infection increase was 24%. And for older people receiving care at home, there was an 11% increase in infection activity. Hand in hand with the rise in coronavirus infections, the health agency says hospitalizations are also on the rise.
Department Head Sara Byfors:
“The spread of infection in the country is increasing, and it is a high time to get vaccinated according to current recommendations if you have not yet done so. As more and more people become infected, it becomes even more important to take the vaccine doses that are recommended.”
In Sweden, those eligible for a COVID vaccine booster dose include seniors and anyone who is at risk including people who are very overweight, have a cardiovascular disease, or high blood pressure.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency is trying to improve its sentinel surveillance in order to have a better handle on the spread of respiratory infections, like influenza. It is seeking doctors and health clinics to volunteer to take part in sentinel sampling, a voluntary nasal test on patients with symptoms of a respiratory infection.
If they can get enough volunteers, the test results will help the agency detect and follow what viruses are most active. It can also help monitor how viruses are changing and evolving.
Unit Head Lena Dillner:
“It is knowledge that is important for the assessment of the development of epidemics and for recommendations for the treatment of people who need care. The more that participate, the better the picture we get of infection developments.”
🦠
Not one, but two huge studies have been published that seem to indicate that having a coronavirus infection may lead to a significantly increased risk of being diagnosed with diabetes.
The first was a meta-analysis of nine studies covering some 40 million people. It was published in BMC Medicine and you can find it HERE.
The other study published in Nature.com found a 66% increased risk of a new onset diabetes diagnosis among people surviving a coronavirus infection. You can find that study HERE.
The elevated risk of a diabetes diagnosis after infection covered all age groups and genders, although the risk for adults was much higher than it was for children. The studies advise doctors to pay close attention to patients having had an infection, especially within the first three months of recovering.
🦠mpox🦠
As cases fade, you won’t be hearing much of the term ‘monkeypox’ anymore. The World Health Organization has transitioned to using the term ‘mpox’ instead due to concerns over the original name driving racist and stigmatizing dialogue online.
As the state of the epidemic, global mpox cases continue to decline. There were 620 infections reported last week. That is 90% fewer infections than the infection peak back in August. At the moment, Latin America seems to be bearing the brunt of new infections.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
Over the weekend, the European Union adopted a price ceiling for Russian oil. The G7 nations, together with Australia, also adopted the price cap on Russian oil. Beginning today, Russian oil cannot be sold for any more than $60 a barrel. The purpose of the price ceiling is to squeeze Russia's income from oil sales and at the same time keep global oil supply at a stable level.
Russia, as you can imagine is not happy, and said in response that it will not accept the price cap on its oil and added it will not export oil that is subject to the EU and G7 price cap, even if it means reducing oil exports. This of course, could add another wrinkle to the ongoing energy crisis.
🇩🇰
The energy crisis has electricity consumers in Denmark in a panic. Danish energy companies like Norlys and Ewii say they are getting a record number of calls where customers are either changing companies or changing between variable and fixed electricity prices. At first, when variable rates were below the three month fixed rate, everyone rushed to get the variable rate.
Norlys Energy Business Director Mads Brøgger spoke to Ritzau:
“The energy crisis causes large fluctuations in energy prices. In a period when the variable electricity price was low, it gave rise to a natural desire from many customers to move and have the opportunity to save on the energy price. But this past week, when the electricity price has again become higher, we have again been contacted by customers who want to cancel the switch.”
To try and settle people’s nerves Norlys is now offering a combined rate where half the hourly consumption is at the fixed rate and the other half is variable.
🇫🇮 🇸🇪 🇫🇷
Finland, France, and Southern Sweden could see significant strain on their electricity systems, according to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity winter outlook.
In ENSTO-E’s energy forecasts, it says while the Nordics should weather the winter energy crisis in relatively good shape, it warns there are risks that could trigger energy shortages.
“Close follow-up is needed on the uncertainties around nuclear availability in France, Sweden, and Finland, as well as coal supply in Germany and Poland.”
🇫🇮 🇸🇪
Early in the new year, Finland will begin the second phase of its electricity transmission line going to Sweden. The first phase of the 400-kilovolt Aurora Line began this fall. The 153 kilometer line will run to the Finnish/Swedish border where it will connect with Sweden’s power grid. The project is expected to be completed in 2025. Once the world is done and electricity begins to flow, it should provide a significant addition to energy security in the Nordic countries and across the Baltic states.
🇫🇮
A European Union effort to levy a windfall tax on energy companies banking big profits during the energy crisis is taking shape in Finland. Energy companies have been seeing record profits due to soaring energy costs pushed up by the energy crisis and Russia’s weaponizing of its energy exports. In Finland, according to local media organization Yle, the government is proposing a temporary 33% tax on all fossil fuel and most electricity companies. Small scale electricity producers and district heating systems are exempt.
“The tax would take 33% of firms’ net profits from electricity operations in 2023, after excluding a five percent return on capital deployed in those operations from the tax. The tax would be paid in the same way as normal corporate income taxes on profits.”
The Finnish Ministry of Finance is expecting the levy to raise up to €1.3 billion.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇫🇮 🇺🇸 🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
“I must be very honest, brutally honest with you, Europe isn't strong enough right now.”
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin delivered a blunt message in Australia saying that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has exposed Euorpe’s weakness and mistakes in reacting to the invasion.
“We should make sure that we are stronger. I must be very honest, brutally honest with you. Europe isn't strong enough right now. We would be in trouble without the United States being involved in the war in Ukraine right now. The United States has given a lot of weapons, a lot of financial aid, and a lot of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. And Europe isn’t strong enough yet. And we have to make sure we are building those capabilities when it comes to European defense, European defense industry, and making sure that we can cope in different kinds of situations.”
She says Ukraine must be given “whatever it takes” to win the war. Marin also added that the European Union should have heeded the warnings, the advice, and the hard line approach against Russia from Poland and the Baltic states.
Marin was speaking at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.
🇪🇺 🇺🇦
1,100 and counting. That is, how many Ukrainian soldiers have received military training in the European Union, according to EU Foreign Affairs Representative Josep Borrell. The EU launched a training mission for Ukrainian soldiers a few weeks ago with the goal of training 15,000 troops over the winter and up to 40,000 in the next two years.
🇩🇰 🇷🇺 🇺🇦
A Danish company, Rockwool, is on the hot seat after products from the company were spotted being used at a construction site in Russian-occupied Mariupol in Ukraine. Pictures were posted on Telegram. Unlike a lot of other Danish businesses, Rockwool has kept its Russian business operating after the illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Rockwool's Communications Manager Michael Zarin spoke to Berlingske:
“We have become aware that some of our products are used in a hospital in Russian-occupied Mariupol in Ukraine. We can confirm that Rockwool has not supplied these products directly [to the building site] but that they have instead been supplied by a third-party distributor without our knowledge or consent.”
Zarin added that it was “almost impossible for Rockwool to keep track of who ultimately buys the company's goods”, and he cannot deny that the company's materials may also appear on construction sites in Russian-occupied areas in the future.
🇸🇪/ 🇹🇷
As Sweden tries to pacify fickle Turkey, it has deported a man linked to the PKK, a Kurdish militant and political organization. After being deported, the man was arrested on arrival in Istanbul over the weekend. He had been in Sweden for a number of years seeing asylum, which was rejected about a year ago.
28 of the 30 NATO member nations have given Finland and Sweden their stamp of approval to become full time member states of the military alliance. But the two Nordic nations need all 30. Only Hungary and Turkey remain. Turkey has used the situation to air its issues, with Sweden accusing it of harbouring people it considers to be terrorists.
🇫🇮 🇺🇦
Finnish energy grid operator, Fingrid, is stepping up to help Ukraine as Russia tries to bomb the country’s energy infrastructure in an attempt to freeze it into submission. Ukraine has asked European power companies for any and all support to repair its heavily damaged electricity grid. Fingrid said it is currently doing a lot of upgrading of its own network and sub-stations and it will stockpile things like circuit breakers, transformers, and relays to be shipped to Ukraine as soon as possible.
Director Timo Kiiver:
“Fingrid's own energy security will not be compromised because we also keep enough spare parts on hand in case of equipment failures.”