Monday Morning News & Notes
🍃Environment & Energy⚡️
🇩🇰
Danish Meteorological Institute researchers at the National Center for Climate Research have done something interesting. They have done a study of climate models to determine their accuracy so far. Using new satellite data they compared models of the Arctic sea ice from 1995 to 2014 to actual weather records. The results found that climate model simulations were accurate within plus/minus 1 °C.
Lead Author Tian Tian, and a researcher in the NCKF's research unit Global Climate, called the findings positive:
“This is a really good result because it shows once and for all that the climate models are actually capable of reproducing important parts of the climate we observe. This also gives us a good indication that the models can reproduce the future climate for the various climate scenarios, more precisely than we have so far assessed.”
DMI Satellites and Arctic Research Unit Head Jacob L. Høyer says the findings show that climate models are significantly more reliable than thought.
“The work here shows how important it is to use observations from satellites in the Arctic, and it has given us renewed faith that our climate models calculate correctly. We must now look at the results in even more detail to see how we can improve the models further.”
The findings also put more urgency on the need to fight climate change considering the alarming temperature trends in the years ahead that are forecast in climate modeling.
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Wet and warm. That is how the Danish Meteorological Institute is describing the winter that was. With February being the warmest on record, DMI February was so hot that it alone was responsible for raising average temperature records for the entire winter by 4.4 degrees.
All three winter months saw rainfall that was well above normal. There was 99.2 millimeters of rain in December, 84.8 mm in January, and 102.3 mm in February.
DMI Climatologist Mikael Scharling:
“2023, which ended as the wettest year ever, remains unfazed into 2024. That in itself is extreme.”
Climate Researcher, and Unit Leader in the DMI National Center for Climate Research, Rasmus Anker Pedersen says that global warming means that wet winters will likely be the new normal for Denmark.
"Going forward, we expect increasing amounts of precipitation in winter on average. The size of the change depends on the future emission of greenhouse gases. In a medium-high emission scenario, which roughly corresponds to the current climate policies worldwide, we expect approx. 12% more precipitation in winter on average by the end of the century.”
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The EV revolution continues in Denmark. e-Mobilitet Consultant Kristian Madsen says 2024 is continuing a trend away from gas and diesel-fueled vehicles.
“With spring comes everything green, but the first two winter months of the year also offered a green wave. In January and February, there were 13,816 more electric cars on Danish roads, while 16,685 fossil cars disappeared.”
🇩🇰🇸🇪🇫🇮🇳🇴
The Nordic Council of Ministers would like more people to eat vegetables for both their own health and for the climate. One idea that has been proposed by the council to accomplish this goal is to raise taxes on meat and sugar to make them more expensive while lowering prices on vegetables.
Nordic Council of Ministers Secretary General Karen Elleman called the eating of meat a “serious epidemic.” She says eating red meat increases the risk of cancer and cardiovascular diseases. She also points to the climate impacts.
“It is actually surprising that climate work in our countries does not have a greater focus on food systems, after all, they account for more than a third of global emissions.”
However, Swedish Rural Affairs Minister Peter Kullgren is not onboard.
“It is unusually bad timing for a move like this, considering how hard-pressed our Swedish and European farmers are. There are other ways to go than saying that people should immediately stop eating meat.”
Kullgren says people need to take responsibility for their own diet. He would also like to see an approach that uses targeted investments in things like domestic fertilizer production using clean energy to reduce the climate impacts.
🇪🇺
Some good and bad news for the increase of electrified railway lines across Europe. The good news is that in 2022 there were 31% more electric rail lines across the entire EU than there were in 1990. Electrified lines now make up almost 57% of all rail lines criss-crossing Europe. That shows significant progress in making rail transport cleaner and greener.
At the individual country level, it is a much more varied story with tiny Luxembourg leading the way with almost all of its rail lines (97%) being electric. Just behind it were Belgium (88%), Bulgaria, and Sweden (both 75%), and the Netherlands (74%).
The bad news is a not-so-green picture in Ireland where a mere 3% of the country’s railway lines are electrified. Numbers across the three Baltic states, Lithuania (8%), Estonia (12%), and Latvia (13%) were also much too low.
🇸🇪
An ongoing strike by unionized workers at Tesla Sweden doesn’t seem to be impacting the brand’s popularity or ability to sell and deliver new vehicles. Since the beginning of the year 2,800 new Teslas have hit the road in Sweden despite the labour dispute. Striking workers and sympathy strikes by other unions have targeted the delivery of Teslas at the port and the sending of Tesla license plates to new owners via Post Nord. In both cases, Tesla seems to have found work-arounds to keep delivering the new cars and the accompanying license plates.
🇬🇧 🇩🇰
Britain will ban industrial sandeel fishing next month in order to throw a lifeline to numerous seabirds who rely on them for food. The UK is seeing a decline in the number of seabirds, many of which have been declared vulnerable populations.
The reaction in Denmark is mixed. The Danish Ornithological Association has given the move a big thumbs up. However, Danish Fisheries Minister Jacob Jensen is very critical saying it will result in huge losses for Danish fishermen.
At the same time, the EU Commission is now investigating the move to see if the ban violates the Brexit agreement, which, among other things, is supposed to ensure Danish fishermen access to British waters.
🦠Outbreaks🦠
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In its latest Communicable Disease Threats Report the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control says it has identified 3,507 new measles cases across 18 European countries since its last monthly update. These include ongoing outbreaks in Austria, Cyprus, France, Netherlands, Portugal, and Romania.
There have also been nine fatalities including four infants in Romania.
There were 2,361 measles infections reported in Europe in all of last year.
In the Nordics, Sweden has registered 11 measles cases while Denmark, Norway, and Finland each have fewer than 10. Five of the measles infections reported in Denmark have been in the first two months of the year. Of those, three were children under the age of 15.
The ECDC stresses that “Overall, measles transmission currently remains low in the European Union and European Economic Area.”
But it adds:
“The overall number of measles cases in the EU/EEA has been steadily increasing since June 2023. Measles cases are expected to continue increasing in the EU/EEA in the coming months due to reported sub-optimal vaccination coverage for measles- containing vaccines in a number of EU/EEA countries (<95% in many of these countries), the high probability of importation from areas experiencing high circulation and the fact that the coming months represent the seasonal peak of the virus. In addition, the recent report of a majority of cases having acquired the disease within the reported country through community/local transmission indicates a higher probability of being exposed to the virus within the EU/EEA than in previous months.”
The ECDC is urging health authorities across the EU to double down on measles vaccination programs and education campaigns.
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Although the flu season appears to be winding down, influenza continues to be the largest driver of respiratory infections in Europe according to the ECDC. Over the last four weeks, the majority of reporting countries continue to be above the 10% sentinel positivity percentage rate. The agency says influenza indicators were either stable or decreasing across Europe.
The centre says this year’s flu shot looks to be about 53% effective in protecting against mild to severe flu infections.
On the RS virus front, it says overall activity is on the decline but the picture remains a little mixed among individual countries. Some countries are reporting increasing RS virus-related hospital and ICU admissions.
The ECDC says COVID activity remains low across the EU/EEA. However, it has identified a new variant it is calling XBB.1.5-like. The strain is a combination of two XBB.1.5 strains into this new variant of interest.
🌍
The World Health Organization’s COVID Lead marked the four-year anniversary of the arrival of the pandemic by remembering how the world failed. Maria Van Kerkhove says she vividly remembered the day four years ago being heartbreaking. She says it marked the day when the world collectively woke up to the coronavirus threat when it should have been six weeks earlier when the WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
“Sure, PHEIC isn't as scary as the word "pandemic" but the point is that the alarm is raised before a pandemic is reached. I remember feeling that day that the world had failed. The world collectively failed to prevent a catastrophic event because the world did not heed our warnings, did not take early actions to prevent the worst, and did not come together in solidarity to tackle this invisible threat crossing our borders and seeding havoc. And that lack of action continued, we collectively failed to utilize the limited supply of personal protective equipment for health and care workers around the world, not just in some countries, and failed to use vaccines, once available, for all at risk.”
She says the pandemic did not have to be as bad as it was or unfold how it did. That said, she added that she is grateful for many people around the world who are working to ensure the next pandemic response avoids the mistakes made during COVID.
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The World Health Organization is warning that inequality within healthcare systems around the world is contributing to a global health crisis. In a new report, the WHO says that inequality within healthcare is a “vicious cycle” resulting in unpaid work, driving women out of the workforce, and hampering gender equality.
It says women make up 67% of the global healthcare workforce but account for 76% of all unpaid care activities within the sector.
“Work that is done primarily by women tends to be paid less and have poor working conditions. The deleterious impact of weak health systems combined with increasing unpaid health and care work are further straining the health of caregivers and the quality of services.”
To address this, the WHO recommends improving healthcare working conditions, especially for women, ensuring equal pay, addressing inequality among the paid workforce, and investments to ensure robust healthcare systems.
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A court case continues in Copenhagen this week where Nordic airliner SAS is accused of having flown 64 people into Denmark during the pandemic without the negative COVID that was required at the time. This week the prosecution will table its demands for the airline to face a fine.
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March has become the worst month for the spread of respiratory infections in Sweden. It used to be February but the Swedish Public Health Agency says since the COVID pandemic struck March has become the sick month. That is backed up by statistics from the Social Insurance Agency noting that since COVID arrived in 2020 people are taking the most sick days in March.
As for why this is, Sweden’s State Epidemiologist Magnus Gisslén shrugs his shoulders.
“In the first months of the year, many people are sick with respiratory infections and other infections, and many children need to be at home. But exactly why it is more in March than in February is very difficult to say.”
Gisslén says the pandemic has clearly impacted when other different viruses spread including stomach bugs.
“When it comes to vomiting with calicivirus, we haven't quite reached the peak yet, but it looks like it will go up for another week or so before it turns around. It is not entirely unusual for it to peak in March.”
He adds that while they can’t draw any firm conclusions yet there are some indications that things are slowly returning to pre-pandemic patterns.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇫🇷🇵🇱🇩🇪
Russia must not win in Ukraine. That was the refrain after a meeting between the leaders of Germany, France, and Poland on Friday. The summit was intended to address tensions between the three countries concerning support, or lack thereof, for Ukraine.
The three leaders agreed that Russia is a direct threat to European sovereignty. They are also united on using frozen Russian funds and assets to help fund the production of badly needed weapons and ammunition for Ukraine. The three nations have also agreed to work together to procure more weapons from Western defense companies to donate to Ukraine.
Notably, Germany, France, and Poland have agreed to form a coalition of nations to get long-range weapons to Ukraine. This is a breakthrough in Germany’s opposition to giving long-range missiles to Ukrainian forces.
It is also worth noting that after the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron said peace can only be achieved in Ukraine if the country is made whole including regaining the Crimean peninsula, which Russia has occupied since 2014.
The three leaders have also agreed to meet again early this summer.
🇪🇺🇺🇦
The European Union is sinking big bucks into the production of ammunition across Europe. The EU is allocating €500 million (about $736 million Cdn) for 31 ammunition production projects. This means the European defense industry will be able to crank out two million artillery shells per year by the end of 2025.
EU High Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierrey Breton:
“This is the first time we are using the EU budget to support the production capacity of the defense industry. This is unprecedented.”
Last year the EU promised to increase artillery shell production in order to supply Ukraine with one million shells by March (this month). It has fallen short of reaching that goal.
🇱🇻🇪🇺
Among the ammunition projects getting European Union funding will be a production facility in Latvia.
Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds:
“A historic and significant step closer to the ammunition production facility in Latvia! The EU Commission has approved the allocation of funding in the amount of €41 million for the project submitted by the State Defense Corporation as part of an international consortium together with KNDS group companies in France and Italy and NAMMO group companies in Norway and Finland. The project envisages the implementation of several measures in different countries, including the establishment of a production plant for artillery ammunition charges in Latvia.”
🇸🇪🇪🇺
Some of the EU funding will also flow to Sweden where an ammunition facility in Karlskoga will be expanded in order to significantly increase production.
Defense Minister Pål Jonson spoke to SVT:
“We welcome today's announcement that the EU Commission will now help finance the partial production of artillery ammunition within the framework of Nammo in Karlskoga.”
The work to expand the facility is expected to be completed in 2026.
Grants have also been approved for ammunition facilities in Norway and Finland.
🇺🇸🇨🇦🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇯🇵🇬🇧🇪🇺/ 🇮🇷
G7 nations have issued a warning to Iran to stop supplying arms to Russia for its war in Ukraine or face even more sanctions. One of the sanctions on the table would be to restrict Iran’s state airline, Iran Air, from flying in or out of Europe and other Western countries.
“If Iran continues to supply ballistic missiles and similar technology to Russia, we are prepared to respond quickly and in a coordinated manner, with new and significant measures against Iran.”
The Group of Seven includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, as well as the European Union.
🇩🇰 🇧🇪
This week, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen will host his counterpart from Belgium at Skrydstrup Air Force Base. The two ministers will be discussing the F-16 training program of which Denmark has a lead role.
The air base is where some Ukrainian pilots are receiving training to fly the more modern warplanes.
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A sign of the times. As European nations gear up for the possibility of war and sink billions into defense spending there has been a sea change in investment strategies. For many years, banks, pension companies, and other major investment vehicles found it distasteful to invest in companies making weapons. Not anymore. Danish banks are noting a major increase in the purchase of shares in defense companies. At Saxo Bank, for example, defense industry investments have soared by 150% year over year.
European investment experts say that EU defense companies like Sweden’s SAAB and Germany’s Rheinmetall have been a particular favourite of investors. Over at Danske Bank shares in Rheinmetall are now the most traded foreign investment putting it on par with tech giant Microsoft.
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The Danish government’s math in claiming it has met the NATO target of spending 2% of its GDP on defense is again under scrutiny. This time critics may have a pretty good point. Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen revealed to the Danish Parliament's Defense Committee that money spent on a podcast is part of the funding being included in meeting the NATO target. The podcast is hosted by a Danish comedian and has so far published three episodes. The Danish Armed Forces are footing the bill for the podcast to the tune of 453,000 Danish kroner (about $89,000 Cdn).
Danmarksdemokraterne Defense spokesperson Lise Bech:
“It sounds completely crazy. It's fine to make a podcast, but I think it's strange to count towards NATO.”
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Danish shoe company Ecco is giving a lesson on how not to handle crisis communications. After two years of silence regarding the company’s decision to continue operations in Russia, it has issued a press release defending its position. It is also criticizing a Danish politician who has called for a boycott of the company over its refusal to pull out of Russia like so many other Western companies have.
For its part, Ecco says it is continuing its Russian operations out of consideration for its employees there.
“When we analyzed the situation at the outbreak of war, it quickly became clear that a shutdown in Russia would particularly affect Ecco's employees worldwide. In Russia alone, 1,800 employees worked who would lose their jobs. […] We reached the decision that we had to secure the jobs of our long-standing loyal employees rather than pursue foreign policy.”
To make matters worse, Ecco has also refused all interview requests by Danish media since issuing its press release. The Danish communications company Friday’s Senior Advisor Claus Dithmer told DR that this is crisis communications gone wrong.
“Their entire handling of this case is generally very far from something I would recommend companies to do. It is an ostrich tactic to bury your head in the sand because the crisis will not go away if you do not communicate properly. On the contrary, the pressure increases. And it costs the [company’s] reputation.”
Consumers seem to be voting with their wallets and turning their backs on the shoe company, which is reflected in falling sales.
🇫🇮 🇺🇦
In a bid to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities, Finland is currently engaged in negotiations with Kyiv on a prospective security deal.
Foreign Affairs Minister Elina Valtonen spoke with Finnish business daily Kauppalehti:
“It was agreed then [in December] that each country would make these security commitments with Ukraine. It is clear that the existing [security] agreements are also relevant for us because it is also in Ukraine's interest to a certain extent that these agreements partly define how much aid they receive. Of course, there are also national variations, depending on what Ukraine wants and what can be supplied and where the strengths of each country lie.”
The bilateral agreement aims to cement long-term defense aid for Ukraine, a move mirroring similar pacts forged by other European nations. Denmark, in a landmark deal, pledged a decade of support for Ukraine, accompanied by an aid package totaling €230 million euros, supplying, among other things, 15,000 artillery shells.
The proposed Finnish deal, drawing on Denmark's precedent, is expected to follow suit with minor adjustments. Minister Valtonen hinted at the likelihood of the agreement being finalized by spring.
The United Kingdom, Germany, and France have also already signed security agreements with Ukraine
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
The Finnish government is continuing to struggle to come up with ways to combat Russia’s weaponization of migration. The government’s latest proposed plan to try and address undocumented immigrants crossing from Russia into Finland is to increase the power of border authorities to immediately return illegal immigrants back to Russia. There would be exceptions for children, the disabled, and people in vulnerable situations.
However, in a press conference to discuss the measures both Prime Minister Petteri Orpo and Interior Minister Mari Rantanen dodged repeated questions about whether the bill would be a violation of the Finnish constitution and its international treaties.
Politics aside Finnish authorities have repeatedly warned that as the weather warms up and the snow melts more and more immigrants will attempt to cross illegally into Finland reigniting the border crisis.
Finland closed its land borders with Russia last fall due to a major increase in undocumented immigrants arriving from the Russian side. The border will remain closed until at least April 14.
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Finland’s Security and Intelligence Service has a new head. He is Juha Martelius and he begins his term on April 1. Martelius spoke to Yle to say that Russia presents the most pressing security concern to Finland.
"If you look at the changed security environment in Finland, that [threat] is now coming from outside the country's borders from the east. In particular, it is linked to the intensified confrontation between Russia and the West in general and Russia's policy of force in Ukraine. On the other hand, there is also a disregard for certain rules of international law.”
Internally, he said that the country is continuing to grapple with terrorism threats and increased radicalization of people on both the left and right wings of the political spectrum.
🇸🇪/ 🇷🇺
There was a sharp increase in the number of cyber attacks targeting Swedish authorities, businesses, and organizations last year. That is according to an annual report from the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency. In 2023, there were 334 significant IT incidents reported to the agency across the 1,000 or so government agencies and organizations. Of those, a significantly higher percentage was the result of a cyber attack.
🇷🇺
Voting in the Russian presidential election began on Friday and there have been a number of incidents and arrests. One voting booth was set on fire, fireworks were set off inside a polling station, and people poured dye into ballot boxes. Police have made a number of arrests.
In Denmark, Russian citizens were able to vote at the Russian Embassy on Sunday.
In a shock to absolutely no one, Vladimir Putin won the election in a landslide securing another six years in power.
🇷🇺🇨🇳
Russia’s efforts to sanction-proof its economy by turning to countries like China appear to be paying dividends, especially in the movement of crude oil. Energy Geopolitics and Markets expert Francesco Sassi notes that oil tankers under sanctions are busy traversing their cargo of sanctioned Russian crude to sanction-free Chinese markets.
He notes that most recently the oil tanker NS Century, which is under American sanctions, arrived in port at Qingdao to discharge its cargo of Russian crude oil. Sassi says that is the fourth U.S.-sanctioned tanker to dock at Chinese ports this month to clear a backlog of Russian Sokol crude stored on ships.
Odds & Ends
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Sweden is at the forefront of a move to a cashless society, it has even legislated the transition away from paper money and coins. However, Sweden’s central bank, Riksbanken, is noting an entirely cashless society doesn’t work for everyone and some changes need to be made. In a report issued last week it highlighted instances where cash is needed like in the event of a power outage, a time of crisis, or among elderly or vulnerable populations.
Currently, Swedish banks are not required to accept paper bills and coins from private individuals. Riksbanken has recommended that be changed so banks can accept cash.
Elin Ritola with the Riksbank Department of Payments says that while the cashless system works for most people ”It isn't good enough. Everyone must be able to pay.”
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Malmö will host this year’s Eurovision Song Contest and the city is going to extreme lengths to try and leave the best impression including using medieval methods to curtail a burgeoning rat population. Authorities have brought in ferrets and dogs to deal with all the rats. The ferret is put inside a rat hole and the dogs catch the rats when they come running out. The work is being done for a song by a small company.
To try and hit the right chord for the thousands of people coming to see Eurovision, efforts are focused on the area around the arena, which will host the event in May.
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Despite being considered one of the world’s most equal societies Denmark suffers from some of the same health and longevity problems caused by the wealth gap as in other countries. Figures from the Department of Public Health at the University of Copenhagen show that wealthier Danes live longer than their not-so-well-off countrymen. And the gap has been growing steadily since the 1980s.
In 2021, life expectancy among men with the highest incomes was on average 84.2 years old. For men with the lowest income, it was 73.9, a gap of 10.3 years. This compares to a five-year gap in the late 1980s.
Among women, the difference is a little less. On average, the highest-earning women live to be 87.1 years old while for low-income earners, it was 80.3, a seven-year difference.
The data shows for example, that in the Husum region of Copenhagen, where there are large social housing projects, people are three times as likely to die before they are 75 than people are in Søborgmagle, which is just 300 meters away.
For the entire Danish population, life expectancy is 83 years for women and 79 years for men.
Here is how life expectancy differs between men and women across the EU.
🇩🇰The Week Ahead Round Up🇩🇰
Monday, March 18:
If you are looking for something to do with your kids the Odense Theatre has a production of Treasure Island (Skatteøen in Danish)
The production takes place at 5:30 p.m. from Monday to Thursday and at 5:00 p.m. on Sunday this week.
Find out more and buy tickets HERE.
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CPH:DOX the largest documentary film festival in Scandinavia continues this week. It features over 200 documentaries along with other special events.
It takes place in cinemas all over Copenhagen. The ten-day festival ends on Sunday.
See the full schedule HERE
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The Danish Football Union (DBU) will unveil a new jersey for the men’s national football team today. The new uniforms are for the upcoming European Championships to be played this summer.
The event happens at 11:30 a.m. in Helsingør.
Tuesday, March 19:
Denmark competes in the European part of the International Chef Competition Bocuse d’Or today. The winner will be announced on the second day of the event, Wednesday.
The competition takes place in Trondheim, Norway.
Wednesday, March 20:
For sports fans Danish national broadcaster DR will unveil its coverage schedule for the summer season, which includes the European Championships and the Summer Olympics in Paris.
The schedule will be revealed in an online event scheduled for 1:00 p.m.
Thursday, March 21:
A new exhibition opens at the Amalienborg museum today. The exhibit ‘Frederiksen X: King of Tomorrow’ marks the succession of the Danish throne. It will feature video and audio presentations as well as paintings to provide a better understanding of Denmark’s new monarch.
King Frederik X and Queen Mary will attend the exhibit opening.
You can find the museum at Amalienborg Slotsplads 5 in Copenhagen.
Tickets can be bought HERE.
Friday, March 22:
The Danish Architecture Centre opens its new exhibit called ‘Aware’ today. It will show how architecture can influence spaces and experiences.
On a side note, DAC is a surprisingly good place to visit especially if you have little children.
The centre can be found at Bryghusgade 10 in Copenhagen.
You can find more information HERE.
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The iconic Danish amusement park Tivoli opens today for its summer season.
Gates open at 11:00 a.m.
Learn more HERE.
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A new special exhibit called ‘Warriors’ opens at the awesome Moesgaard Museum today. It focuses on the objects, actions, and rituals that make a warrior and the impact being a warrior has on a person.
Moesgaard is for my money the best museum in Denmark. It is well worth a visit.
The museum is located near Aarhus at Moesgård Allé 15.
You can buy tickets on the museum’s website HERE.
Saturday, March 23:
The charming outdoor museum Den Gamle By (The Old Town) in Aarhus opens for Easter. You can follow the Easter Egg through time and the various neighborhoods, enjoy other Easter activities, and even partake in a special Easter lunch.
The Easter event runs until April 1.
Find out more HERE.
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The Danish national men’s football team plays a friendly match against Switzerland. The game is a warm-up before the EURO2024 tournament in Germany.
The game begins at 8:00 p.m. at Parken Arena in Copenhagen.
Tickets can be bought HERE.
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LEGOland in Billund opens for a new season today. Opening day will also see the debut of the new LEGO Duplo Peppa Pig area. The ribbon cutting takes place at 10:30 a.m.
You can buy tickets for your visit HERE.